presentation by Dr. Steve French, Jan 18 2011

1. Presentation to Department of Geography and Earth Sciences University of North Carolina-Charlotte January 21, 2011 Integrating Urban Models with Infrastructure and Environmental Systems Steven P. French, Ph.D., FAICPAssociate Dean for ResearchProfessor of City and Regional PlanningDirector of Center for Geographic Information SystemsCollege of ArchitectureGeorgia Institute of TechnologyAtlanta, GA 30332-0695

2. Background Human population and environmental impact are increasing exponentially

4. Problem To design the anthrosphere to exist within the means of nature. That is, to use amount of resources that nature provides and generate waste nature can assimilate without overwhelming natural systems. John Crittenden, 2010

6. A majority of the world’s population lives in cities

7. Human impact on the environment is largely mediated through urban infrastructure systems

9. Atlantic Steel becomes Atlantic Station Atlantic Steel 138 acre steel mill Founded in late1800s Closed in 1990s (Photo Courtesy of EPA)

10. Atlantic Steel becomes Atlantic Station 1997 Abandoned Brownfield Adjacent to Midtown Atlanta No access to surrounding development

11. Atlantic Steel becomes Atlantic Station 1997 Jacoby proposes redevelopment Atlanta in nonconformity under Clean Air Act Moratorium on Federal highway spending

12. Atlantic Steel becomes Atlantic Station Comparative Analysis Analysis of travel demand and air pollution in four locations Intown location performed best EPA Project XL to allow 17th Street bridge Source: Transportation and Environmental Analysis of the Atlantic Steel Development Proposal, EPA (1999) (http://www.epa.gov/projectxl/atlantic/index.htm)

13. Atlantic Steel becomes Atlantic Station Today 17th Street Bridge built Mixed Use Development 30,000 employees,10,000 residents 12 acres of public space Less traffic and air pollution Cleaned up brownfield site Improved tax base

14. Vancouver Stormwater Vancouver, BC had a combined sewer-stormwater system. Estimated cost to separate - $4B Rather than separating pipes, the city daylighted the stormwater system and created open space Open space increased the attractiveness of adjacent properties Created an increase of $400M income in increased tax revenue due to increase property values

16. Increased land is converted to agricultural production

17. Increased fertilizer use

18. Increase in N2O from fertilizersN2O is 300 times more potent than CO2 as a GHG and lasts longer

19. Suboptimal Solutions It appears that optimizing individual infrastructure systems produces suboptimal solutions at the metropolitan level and above.

20. Current Situation Infrastructure systems are currently designed and operated as separate stovepipes. Solutions typically seek to optimize performance within a single system. Complex interactions among systems are largely ignored. Most models do not consider long term sustainability

21. Metamodel Approach To develop an integrated suite of models that can estimate the interaction among infrastructure systems and their relationship with the natural environment and social and economic systems. A Metamodelwill be designed to analyze alternative development scenarios at the regional scale, to evaluate infrastructure investments and to analyze proposed development projects. This Metamodel will enable decision makers to envision and create more sustainable and resilient infrastructure solutions.

22. MetamodelDesign Exogenous social and economic systems determine the amount and type of population and employment. The urban growth model estimates the future amount and locations of population, employment, and land uses. This produces the demand for services from the infrastructure system models by time and location. The infrastructure models estimate the resources required and the waste generated to meet the service demands of the urban area using various technologies.

25. Infrastructure Systems Models

26. Modeling a System of Systems Natural Environment Systems AIR | WATER | HABITAT | LAND | MINERAL RESOURCES Facility Aging Natural Hazards Demographic Changes Technological Hazards Fiscal Constraints Climate Change Social and Economic Systems INCOME | HEALTH | EQUITY | ETHICS | SOCIAL STRUCTURE | POLICY

27. Urban Growth Model Urban growth model for the 13-county Atlanta metro area (current population ~ 5 million) Vector GIS-based model that allocates future land use to small areas Allocates exogenously-determined housing and employment totals based on the suitability

28. Uniform Analysis Zones Intersecting all Land Suitability Layers produces UAZs UAZ is the largest polygon that has a constant set of suitability factors

29. Uniform Analysis Zones

30. Uniform Analysis Zones

31. Uniform Analysis Zones

34. Business as Usual Scenario Employees /Acre 2004 2010 2004 2010 Land Use 2015 2020 2025 2030 2020 2015 2025 2030

35. Compact Growth Scenario Employees /Acre 2004 Land Use Steve French 2010 2030 2020 2025 2015 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

36. Ongoing Model Development Testing additional suitability rankings Calibrating to past growth and with other forecasts Including more detailed land use types Integrating with water and electricity models

37. System Interactions Not only do the infrastructure models interact with urban growth, but they must interact with each other. Water Supply Electric Power Urban Growth

38. Model Inputs and Outputs Urban Growth Model Inputs Economic Demand Transport Access Environmental Constraints Outputs Land Use Open Space Population Employment by Location

39. Model Inputs and Outputs Water Supply Model Inputs Surface/Ground Quantity & Quality Pumping Treatment and Distribution Technologies Outputs Quantity by Location

40. Model Inputs and Outputs Electric Power Model Inputs Generation Transmission Distribution Technologies Outputs Power by Location

41. Model Inputs and Outputs Water Supply Model Electric Power Model Inputs Demand Surface/Ground Quantity & Quality Pumping Treatment Distribution Technologies Outputs Water by Location Inputs Demand Fuel Water Generation Transmission Distribution Technologies Outputs Power by Location Urban Growth Model Inputs Economic Demand Transport Access Land Price Environmental Constraints Outputs Land Use Open Space Population Employment by Location 38

42. Conclusions An integrated model of infrastructure systems can be a powerful tool to explore and develop more sustainable urban areas. The infrastructure models should be driven by an urban growth model. An integrated analysis tool should consist of a loosely coupled set of domain specific models linked by well defined input and output requirements. This understanding is a necessary, but not sufficient basis for more informed decision making and policy choices.

43. Remaining Challenges Understanding and modeling complexity and interactions among infrastructure systems Building models that are useful and meaningful to decision-makers Resolving differences in geographic resolution and temporal scale among different models

44. Questions?

45. High Level Architecture The High Level Architecture is an example of an approach for realizing distributed simulations HLA Rules define general principles that pervade the entire architecture HLA Interface Specification defines a set of run-time services to support distributed simulations Data distribution is based on a publication / subscription mechanism

47. no single simulation can satisfy all user needs

48. support interoperability and reuse among DoD simulations

49. federations of simulations (federates)

50. pure software simulations

51. human-in-the-loop simulations (virtual simulators)

53. Object Model Template (OMT) defines the format for specifying the set of common objects used by a federation (federation object model), their attributes, and relationships among them

55. Process for Creating a Federation Integrate Execute Develop Define Design Develop And Federation Federation Federation Federation Federation Test And Analyze Conceptual Objectives Federation Results Model Execute Plan Identify Develop Select Develop Federation Execution Needs Scenario Federates FOM Process Integrate Develop Perform Allocate Establish Output Federation Objectives Conceptual Functionality Federation Analysis Agreements Prepare Test Prepare Results Federation Plan Develop Implement Federation Federation Requirements Modifications

56. Existing Models Urban Growth – UrbanSim, PECAS, What-If? Transportation – TRANSIMS, TranPlan, CUBE Water/Stormwater – SWWM, BASINS, HEC-RAS, WASP Energy – NEMS, MARKAL Air Quality – CMAQ, CALINE3, UAM-V

57. Metamodel Steps Predict the demand and location for urban infrastructure for development and redevelopment, including the resulting economic flows and socioeconomic drivers based on emergent properties Determine the infrastructure system options (e.g., community design, net zero buildings, construction methods, material choices) available to meet this demand and (re)design the virtual city Choose a transportation options (e.g., walking, biking, automobiles, public transportation, automobiles) and simulate traffic flows and travel times using micro-simulation models (e.g., TranSims) Determine the materials and energy needed to construct and maintain the urban infrastructure Assess the infrastructure’s vulnerability to natural hazards (e.g., floods, earthquakes, hurricanes) and manmade challenges (e.g., resource constraints or supply chain disruptions) Determine the local, regional, and global impacts (e.g., carbon footprint) of various scenarios using life cycle impact assessment Predict heat island effects using microclimate models and determine increases to water and energy demands Visualize various sustainability and resiliency metrics (e.g., carbon footprint; water, material, and energy demands; and social and economic impacts)