Presentation given to the Open Mobile Alliance (OMA) Mobile Messaging Workshop on July 12th 2012 in Brooklyn NY. Focuses on the inevitable fragmentation of the messaging marketplace, and why new standards such as RCS will fail
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Disruptive Analysis - OMA Messaging Workshop July 2012
1. Fragmentation, intent & “The Death of Ubiquity”:
why Telco-OTT strategies are inevitable
OMA Mobile Messaging Workshop
Brooklyn NY, 12th July 2012
dean.bubley@disruptive-analysis.com @disruptivedean
2. About Disruptive Analysis
London-based analyst house & strategic consulting firm
Advisor to MNOs, vendors, regulators & investors
Critic of mobile IMS since 2005 and RCS since 2008
Published report on “Telco-OTT Strategies”, Feb 2012
Workshops on Future of Voice & #TelcoOTT
With Martin Geddes Consulting (credited for various slides here)
Next events in Orlando & London in October
Twitter @disruptivedean .
Blog: disruptivewireless.blogspot.com
July 2012 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2012
3. Core thesis: Fragmentation is valuable
Convergence & Fragmentation &
standards innovation
… new standardised services are neither necessary, nor sufficient.
RCS is irrelevant at best, and actively damaging at worst.
July 2012 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2012
4. Messaging: key fragmentation drivers
Different
User Needs
& contexts
New
Multiplying
Business
Ecosystems
Models
New
Delivery
Technologies
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd and
July 2012 Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2012
5. Scale &
Context scope Why do
people send
Intent Functional messages,
Different needs
anyway?
User Needs
& Contexts
New
Multiplying
Business
Ecosystems
Models
New
Delivery
Technologies
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd and
July 2012 Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2012
6. Intent: 3 basic motivations for communications
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd and
July 2012 Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2012
7. Information transfer
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin
July 2012 Geddes Consulting 2012
9. Presence really means “feeling an essence”
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin
July 2012 Geddes Consulting 2012
10. SMS vs. Intent
Information Transfer Narrative Presence
“Running 10 mins late. In “You’ll never believe “Miss you… looking
taxi now” what happened last forward to Friday ;-)
night :-O” xxx”
July 2012 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2012
11. Scale &
Context scope
Intent Functional
needs
Different
User Needs
New
Multiplying
Business
Ecosystems
Models
New
Delivery
Technologies
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd and
July 2012 Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2012
12. Context: Messaging moves to in-app/web model
… messaging APIs need to fit the app narrative
July 2012 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2012
13. Service
e.g. SMS
Product
e.g. WhatsApp
Feature
e.g. Zynga IM
Function
14. Context: Device diversity = OTT inevitable
Probability of all of a user’s Internet / messaging devices being
on a single telco’s network
100%
90% Free 3rd party WiFi
80%
Shared data plans only a
70% partial response
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1 2 3 4 5 6
# connected devices owned
July 2012 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2012
15. Scale &
Context scope
Intent Functional
needs
Different
User Needs
New
Multiplying
Business
Ecosystems
Models
New
Delivery
Technologies
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd and
July 2012 Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2012
16. Scale & scope
Communities Unmet needs at every layer
Many combinations of
Relationships
information
transfer, narrative &
presence
Conversations
Many ways to meet them
Interactions No application can do it all
Rendezvous
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd and
July 2012 Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2012
17. Birthday party!
+
Lowest common denominator services used as a fallback when nothing better available
July 2012 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2012
18. Scale &
Context scope
Intent Functional
needs
Different
User Needs
New
Multiplying
Business
Ecosystems
Models
New
Delivery
Technologies
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd and
July 2012 Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2012
19. SMSC SMSC
Roaming
Customer
Database
Invoice
Alice Bob
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd and
Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2012
20. Transmission
Interoperability
SMSC Storage
SMSC Home
Mobility
Agent
Availability Delivery
Customer
Accountability
Database
Invoice
Usability Ubiquity Urgency
Relevance
Alice Governance Bob
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd and
Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2012
26. Interoperability is good but just another function
Presence
July 2012 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2011
27. You can’t please all the people, all the time…
Phone number Ubiquity
Other identity Exclusivity
Mobile primary Familiarity
Web primary Novelty
… at least, not with a single monolithic service or restrictive API
July 2012 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2011
28. Fragmentation is irreversible
OTT solutions target specific use-cases optimally
You can’t beat them through interoperable generic messaging
So join them through OTT-style innovation….
… or be happy with being lowest-common denominator for
the residual use cases
Telco-OTT services or partnerships are inevitable
July 2012 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2011
29. Telco-OTT is neither new, nor impossible
July 2012 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2011
30. Different models for Telco-OTT
Telco OTT
service Internet
Normal “on
net” users
Off-net
Telco extension user
service
Telco Internet
Billing &
ID
July 2012 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2011
32. Conclusions
Messaging fragmentation is inevitable
Consequence of myriad use-cases & human nature
(Also because of technology, devices, ecosystems etc)
There is a need for lowest-common denominator….
…. but it small & likely low-priced
So-called OTT messaging is irreversible
New standards won’t fix anything
MNOs need to innovate, partner, stick with SMS, or exit
July 2012 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2011