1. Methodological
notes on
writing a thesis
David Alexander
University College London

2. Research:
an individual process of discovery
which is often very solitary
and which involves an element
of risk of failure.
If that element of risk of failure
does not exist, perhaps the
research is not worth doing...

3. Research is divided into:-
• inductive and deductive types
• empirical and review types
The most mediocre and uninteresting
research, that which is least
successful, is inductive: unfortunately
it is also the most common type...

4. Induction: the inference of a general
principle from particular instances
Deduction: the inference of
particular instances from a
[hypothesized] general principle

5. Carl Hempel
Karl Popper
Confirmation
Observation
Hypothesis
Theory Deduction
TheoryInduction
Tentative
hypothesis
Pattern
Observation

6. Induction: the inference of a
general law from particular instances
Deduction: the inference of
particular instances from a
[hypothesized] general law.

7. Empirical research via deductive method
• formulate a hypothesis
• collect data in order to verify
the hypothesis
• analyse the data to do this
• verify the hypothesis in the
light of the data analysis.

8. Two strategies:-
1. The 'funnel': begin with a gigantic
problem and try to reduce it to
something that is small enough
to be tackled in the thesis
-- a bad, bad strategy!
2. The 'inverse funnel': begin with a
problem that seems too modest to
be worth studying and add more and
more elements until it is large enough
to be worth writing a thesis about
-- the right strategy!!

9. In other words, better to "see
the world in a grain of sand" than
try to see how many grains of
sand there are in the world...
Begin with a hypothesis about a modest
relationship between two phenomena
Devise or find a method to verify it
Create a model and a procedure
to conduct the verification
If the work seems to be too little,
raise your sights and add more.

10. What is a hypothesis?
a vague sensation that there is
a cause-and-effect relationship
between two phenomena
• the relationship must be verifiable
in the time and with the resources
of data and equipment that
are available to the student
• in the hypothesis, we assume, suppose
and propose (but we do not know).
e si propone (ma non si sa)

11. Null hypothesis:-
H0: there is no relationship [of cause
and effect] between A and B
Alternative hypothesis:-
H1: a relationship does exist
between A and B

12. Careful! Correlation does not prove
the existence of a cause-effect
relationship, only of covariation.
There are many kinds of relationship...
A --> B
A --> C --> B
B --> A
A <--> B
A <-- C --> B
Correlation analysis is widely
used in inductive research...

13. The use of models:-
A model is a simplification of reality
designed to render it more comprehensible
... by selecting the elements that are
most useful to explanation and
reducing them to an elegant minimum,
... but without reductio ad absurdam.

14. Chapters of an empirical thesis
1 - Introduction
2 - Literature review
3 - Data collection methods
4 - Data analysis
5 - Results
6 - Discussion and conclusions

15. Summary:-
• Introduction - area of study
• The problem - that I intend to tackle
• What the literature says about
this problem (NOT the area of study)
• How I tackle this problem
(methods and methodology)
• What happened when I did it
(analysis, results)
• What the implications are
(discussion, conclusion).

16. 1. Introduction
• the problem - general area of study
• the problem - specific introduction
• the hypothesis
• introduction to the area where
the hypothesis will be tested -
or the conditions under
which that will happen.

17. 2. Literature review
• what do we already know
about the problem in question?
• the review must be specific to
the problem at hand, not general
• it is essential to be selective in
one's treatment of the literature.

18. Literature survey:-
• Find sources
• Make a list of references
• Read each paper or chapter selectively
• Paraphrase - summarise - quote extracts
• Make an outline
• Organise notes into the outline
• Turn it into a proper written account.

19. Typical defects of a
literature review chapter
• the review and the choice of
literature are not sufficiently
specific to the problem under study
• the treatment is acritical
• the writer tries to tackle, and
perhaps solve, too many problems.

20. 3. Data collection
• describe the data collection methods
• describe the problems encountered
and solutions adopted during the
data collection phase of the work
• describe the data collected
- various choices encountered
- explain the choices
- how the data will contribute to the
verification of the hypothesis.

21. 4. Analysis
• metodologies used
to analyse the data
• problems encounted
and solutions adopted

22. 5. Results
• describe the results obtained
from the data analysis
• graphics and tables of results
• use the analysis to verify hypothesis
• sensitivity and variation of the results
• confidence limits and intervals.

23. 6. Conclusions
• "the result of the results"
• what can be deduced from the results
• the wider significance of the results
• and, to conclude, a summary of
the work that remains to be done...
The conclusion allows you to revisit
the introduction with the benefit
of the knowledge gained by your
research and analysis.

24. Bibliography
Appendices
• use the "Harvard
system" of references

25. Citing published literature
• citations must be
consistent and complete
• be careful to observe
proper academic conventions.

26. "Harvard style"
Alexander, D.E. 2002. Principles of Emergency Planning and
Management. Oxford University Press, New York, 340 pp.
Alexander, D.E. 2005. Towards the development of a
standard in emergency planning. Disaster Prevention and
Management 14(2): 158-175.
Alexander, D.E. 2005. Vulnerability to landslides. In
T. Glade, M. Anderson and M. Crozier (eds) Landslide
Hazard and Risk. Wiley, Chichester, UK: 175-198.
Surname. Name or Initials. Year. Title of book.
Publisher, place of publication, pages.
Surname; Name or Initials, Year. Title of
article. Journal Volume no. (and issue): Pages.

27. "Harvard style"
Citations in the text:-
Alexander (2005)
(Alexander 2005)
(Alexander 2005a, 2005b)
etc.

28. The abstract - a 250 word
summary of what is in the thesis
• not an introduction but a summary
• make it balanced: problem -
analysis - results - conclusions
• a few words each.

29. Avoid:-
• using a style that is too
pedantic or pseudo-scientific
• confusion of any kind (in the
analysis, visual aspects,
observations, references, etc.)
Promote:-
• a simple, clear style
• a spartan, economic analysis
• a sober but lively style.

30. "In order to stake their claims to territory and
resources, people with long-standing place-based
affiliations are often obliged to foreground the
enduring success of their adaptation to variable local
environments. But what an appreciation of the colliding
temporalities manifest in the natural hazard alerts us
to is the likelihood that adaptive strategies are hard
won, painfully accrued, and inevitably provisional."
Clark et al. 2013. Geographical Journal 179(3): 108.
Avoid this sort of academic writing
AT ALL COSTS:
write simply and clearly.

31. Learn how to....
• choose a problem, a topic and
a form of analysis that can be
completed the available time
• apply a deductive methodology
to the chosen research problem
• tackle a problem that can be solved
in a few months, not many years
• not enlarge th scale of analysis
beyond what is strictly necessary.

32. david.alexander@ucl.ac.uk
emergency-planning.blogspot.com
www.slideshare.com/dealexander