4. • science must not be allowed to be the
justification for political malpractice
• if you supply data, methods or
results you have some responsibility
for how they are used
• accept that the primary effect of
hazards is determined by vulnerability.
Some precepts
6. The great scientists were
highly sensitive to the social
implications of their work.
7. Professor Angela McLean,
University of Oxford
(co-author, UK Government's Foresight
Report on Disaster Risk Reduction):
"By 2040 it should be possible to
have a family of disaster risk models
that give decision makers
the information they need."
8. • consolidate their power
• confound their enemies
• impose an ideology [by force]
• expropriate public funds
• ...or practise good public service.
TO DO WHAT?
9. "...the fiction of good intentions,
diplomatic niceties and a common
vision of human progress."
- Ben Wisner
10. "Our research shows that the success
of early warning is largely determined
by politics, not science."
- Chatham House, London
11. "If you are exposed to a
5-metre tsunami there is
a 30 per cent probability
that you will be killed."
...but
that depends
on who you are.
12. • effect of heroin addiction on
the reconstruction of Bam, Iran
• introduction of repressive Shia
and blasphemy laws in Aceh
• colossal waste of public money on
transitional shelter in L'Aquila, Italy
• government insensitivity to cultural
heritage protection in Christchurch.
Reality check:
13. • widening wealth gap since 1970
• failure to divert resources from
response to prevention and mitigation
• half of world trade goes
through 78 tax havens
• one fifth of world trade is illicit
(drugs, armaments, people, species)
• relationship of proxy wars to aid.
More reality check:
15. • resources that debilitate
local coping capacity
• munitions, military hardware, soldier
training and some humanitarian stuff
• an instrument of political influence
• a means of lining
certain people's pockets.
What is aid?
16. • BIG concrete on poor people's land
• of direct benefit to the donor countries
• aid is in DEEP CRISIS.
What is aid?
19. Women and girls
are the key to
disaster risk reduction
...but they are widely
discriminated against.
20. • violence (domestic, trafficking, other)
• restriction of opportunities (e.g. purdah)
• roles narrowly defined (by men)
• women forced to do the labouring
• abandoned or bereaved women
as heads of household.
Discrimination against women in disasters
21. • and governance
(participatory democracy)
• bring responsibility
• are strongly correlated with
disaster risk reduction
• are seriously under threat.
Human rights
22. • consolidate power structures
• augment profits
• introduce conveniently
repressive measures
• indulge in gratuitous social engineering.
The economic and social
VALUE of disasters
24. • there are no "black swans"
• there are large and increasing areas of
uncertainty caused by rising complexity
• applied science must constantly adapt
itself its focus and methods to changes
in hazard and societal vulnerability
• society's priorities and preoccupations
change constantly over time.
Another reality check
29. Varying context:
• political
• economic
• social
STAGNATION RECONSTRUCTION
EMERGENCY
RESPONSE
SHORT-TERM
RECOVERY
MEDIUM-TERM
RECOVERY
LONG-TERM
RECOVERY
IMPACT
P E S
P E S
P E S
34. RISKS
daily: unemployment, poverty, disease, etc.
major disaster: floods, storms, quakes, etc.
emerging risks: pandemics, climate change
SUSTAINABILITY
disaster risk reduction
resource consumption
stewardship of the environment
economic activities
lifestyles
SUSTAINABILITY
35. INSTRUMENTS OF
DISSEMINATION
• mass media
• targeted campaign
• social networks
• internet
Augmentation
MASS
EDUCATION
PROGRAMME
SOCIAL
CAPITAL
HABIT
CULTURE
The creation of a culture of civil protection
36. BENIGN (healthy)
at the service of the people
MALIGN (corrupt)
at the service of vested interests
interplay dialectic
Justification Development
[spiritual, cultural, political, economic]
IDEOLOGY CULTURE
38. • academic territoriality and tribalism
• failure to understand the role and
modus operandi of other disciplines
• fear of the unknown; love of orthdoxy
• 18th-century approach to knowledge
(love of the Scottish Renaissance)
• failure to see problems holistically.
Why is interdisciplinary work so difficult?
39. • corruption and the black economy
• the arms trade, proxy wars
and fomentation of conflict
• denial and curtailment of
human and civil rights
• manufactured consent and
the manipulation of politics
• governance must be
participatory democracy.
Obstacles to progress in DRR:-
40. • The opportunities for positive change
have never been greater.
• Likewise, the tools and mechanisms.
• The obstacles have never
been more formidable.
• Likewise, the challenges.
Disaster risk reduction: we are
approaching a turning point in history
41. The "cradle"
of resilience:
Canonbury Tower
London N1.
Built in 1509
to survive
the Universal
Deluge:
Rented in 1625
to Francis Bacon.
Post-scriptum