2050 San Diego Population and Housing Forecast

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2050 draft projections of population and housing presented to the SANDAG Board of Directors. This presentation was put together by the Regional Model staff.

Revised Approach ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Topics for Today’s Meeting ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Goals of the SANDAG Forecast ,[object Object],[object Object]

2050 RTP Development Process 2050 Regional Growth Forecast RTP Goals and Objectives Draft 2050 RTP Scenarios Draft 2050 RTP and EIR Evaluation of Alternatives Final GHG Reduction Target Urban Core Transit Strategy Regional Climate Action Plan / Regional Energy Strategy Airport Multimodal Planning Other Regional / Corridor Studies Initial 2050 RTP / SCS / RHNA Alternatives Draft GHG Reduction Target

DRAFT Results: Population, Housing, Jobs DOF 2050 Forecast: Population = 4.5 mil.

DRAFT Results: Age Structure Male Female Populations: 2008 = 3.1 mil. 2050 = 4.4 mil.

Steps in the Forecasting Process: Phase 2: Alternative land-use scenario for 2050 Phase 1: Existing Plans and Policies

Estimating Existing Plans and Policies (EP) Housing Capacity ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Anticipated Deficit by 2050 ,[object Object],*NOTES: Draft is current as of June 26, 2009. “ Minimum net deficiency” is calculated based on a need for 450,000 housing capacity 2008-2050. If projected need is greater, deficit is also greater. scenario planned capacity expected minimum net deficiency* Phase 1: Series 12 DRAFT “EP” 380,000 70,000 Phase 2: 2050 Scenarios ? ?

Existing City/County Planned Housing Capacity: 2008

Remaining City/County Planned Housing Capacity: 2020

Remaining City/County Planned Housing Capacity: 2030

Remaining City/County Planned Housing Capacity: 2040

Remaining City/County Planned Housing Capacity: 2050

General Plan Updates (recently completed and in-progress)

Scenarios for Each Jurisdiction to Consider for 2050: ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Proposed Next Steps ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Transit investment area (Transit Priority Area, plus I-15 Corridor)

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2050 San Diego Population and Housing Forecast

1. 2050 “Series 12” Forecast July 10, 2009

5. Purpose of SANDAG’s Forecast

6. 2050 RTP Development Process 2050 Regional Growth Forecast RTP Goals and Objectives Draft 2050 RTP Scenarios Draft 2050 RTP and EIR Evaluation of Alternatives Final GHG Reduction Target Urban Core Transit Strategy Regional Climate Action Plan / Regional Energy Strategy Airport Multimodal Planning Other Regional / Corridor Studies Initial 2050 RTP / SCS / RHNA Alternatives Draft GHG Reduction Target

7. DRAFT Results: Population, Housing, Jobs DOF 2050 Forecast: Population = 4.5 mil.

8. DRAFT Results: Age Structure Male Female Populations: 2008 = 3.1 mil. 2050 = 4.4 mil.

9. Steps in the Forecasting Process: Phase 2: Alternative land-use scenario for 2050 Phase 1: Existing Plans and Policies

10.

11.

12. Existing City/County Planned Housing Capacity: 2008

13. Remaining City/County Planned Housing Capacity: 2020

14. Remaining City/County Planned Housing Capacity: 2030

15. Remaining City/County Planned Housing Capacity: 2040

16. Remaining City/County Planned Housing Capacity: 2050

17. General Plan Updates (recently completed and in-progress)

18.