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Life in
 Transition
Office of the Chief
    Economist
      EBRD
Life in Transition Survey
  29,000 households
      surveyed in                 28 transition
   September 2006                  countries,
                                  plus Turkey
                                                   Public
                                                  spending
                                                  priorities
   Joint project
  with the World                  Questions
       Bank                        include:
                                                          Corruption



                       Life                          Trust in
                   satisfaction                       public
                                    Political,     institutions
                                  economic and
                                  social values
Transition – past, present and future

100%                                                                  Looking back, only
90%                                                                   30% of people believe
80%
                                                                      that life is better now
70%
                                                                      than in 1989
60%
                                                           Disagree
50%                                                        No view    Today, more people
40%                                                        Agree      are satisfied than
30%                                                                   dissatisfied with their
20%
                                                                      lives
10%

 0%
                                                                      Looking ahead, a
       My household       All things    Children who                  majority of people
         lives better   considered, I   are born now                  believe that the future
       nowadays than    am satisfied      will have a
        around 1989      with my life   better life than              will be better for their
                             now        my generation
                                                                      children
Younger people more upbeat than
older generation
Older generation has borne the brunt
of painful economic and political
reforms
Younger generation poised to reap
the benefits
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%                                  Dissatisfied
50%                                  No view
40%                                  Satisfied
30%
20%
10%
 0%

       18-34   35-49   50-64   65+
The page of history has turned
Strong support for democracy and markets
 More people support
 democracy and market
 economy than              40%       36%
 alternatives              35%

 But one in ten still      30%
                                                        20%
 support a combination     25%

 of planned economy        20%                                      10%

 and authoritarian         15%

                           10%
 government                                                                  Planned economy
                           5%                                            Doesn't matter
 And one in five believe   0%
                                                                      Market economy
 that form of political




                                                                t
                                                            ov
                                                              r
                                     cy



                                                           tte



                                                         ng
                                 cra



 and economic system                                    ma



                                                     ria
                               mo



                                                   n’ t

 does not matter for
                                                rit a
                             De



                                               es


                                            t ho
                                            Do




 them
                                          Au
… but significant variation across the
 region
Percent of respondents who support market economy
80%
                                                                  CEB countries
70%
                                                                  clustered around
                                                   R2 = 0.6366
                                                                  moderately high
60%                                                               support for both
                                                                  democracy and
50%
                                                                  markets
40%                                                               While support for
                                                                  democracy and
30%
                                                                  markets in SEE and
20%                                                               CIS+M varies more
   20%     30%      40%       50%      60%       70%        80%
          Percent of respondents who support democracy
                                                                  widely
                 SEE         CIS+M         CEB
The better off tend to support
democracy…
                               Support for democracy,
                                  by income group
                  100%


                  90%


                  80%


                  70%


                  60%


                  50%


                  40%


                  30%


                  20%


                  10%


                   0%


                          Low income       Medium       High income
                                           income
                         Democracy   Doesn't matter   Authoritarian gov't
… as well as market economies
       Support for market economy,
             by employment
100%


90%


80%


70%


60%


50%


40%


30%


20%


10%


 0%


         Unemployed                  Employed

   Market economy   Doesn't matter    Planned economy
Transition has eroded trust…

                          100%


 Across the region,       90%



 societal trust was       80%




 stronger prior to        70%




 1989
                          60%
                                                                            Distrust
                          50%                                               No view
 In general, trust is     40%
                                                                            Trust


 low in the transition    30%




 countries                20%



                          10%


 LITS confirms             0%


 previous survey                 Most people could     Most people can be
                                 be trusted prior to      trusted now
 findings in this field                 1989
… but not for every institution
60%


40%


20%
                                                                                             Trust
 0%                                                                                          Distrust
                                                                                             No view
-20%


-40%


-60%
                                              Government




                                                                    Parliament


                                                                                 Political
                                     Police
                Presidency
       Forces




                             Banks




                                                           Courts
       Armed




                                                                                 Parties
Corruption remains a problem…

        quot;There is less corruption now than around 1989quot;
 100%
 90%
 80%
 70%           63%                                  63%
 60%                             75%

 50%
 40%
 30%                                                17%
               23%
 20%                             16%
 10%           14%                                  19%
                                 9%
  0%
               CEB               SEE               CIS+M

                      Agree   No view   Disagree
0%
                                   20%
                                         40%
                                               60%
                                                     80%
                                                           100%
             Unemployment
                benefits


             Other benefits



                    Police




Infrequent
                    Courts


                  Official
                documents

Sometimes
                  Public
                education
                                                                  Corruption in public services
                                                                                                  … particularly in some sectors




               Road police
Frequent




              Public health
                system
Public prioritises spending on human
 capital
            CEB                                                           SEE
                      Education                                                       Education
 Pensions



                                                       Pensions
Housing


                                  CIS+M
                                                           Housing
                                               Education                         Health
             Health
                       Pensions




                        Housing


                                                                  Remaining categories are
                                      Health                      ‘Environment’, ‘Public
                                                                  infrastructure’ and ‘Other’
Life in
 Transition
Office of the Chief
    Economist
      EBRD
 www.ebrd.com/
  economics

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Life in Transition 2

  • 1. Life in Transition Office of the Chief Economist EBRD
  • 2. Life in Transition Survey 29,000 households surveyed in 28 transition September 2006 countries, plus Turkey Public spending priorities Joint project with the World Questions Bank include: Corruption Life Trust in satisfaction public Political, institutions economic and social values
  • 3. Transition – past, present and future 100% Looking back, only 90% 30% of people believe 80% that life is better now 70% than in 1989 60% Disagree 50% No view Today, more people 40% Agree are satisfied than 30% dissatisfied with their 20% lives 10% 0% Looking ahead, a My household All things Children who majority of people lives better considered, I are born now believe that the future nowadays than am satisfied will have a around 1989 with my life better life than will be better for their now my generation children
  • 4. Younger people more upbeat than older generation Older generation has borne the brunt of painful economic and political reforms Younger generation poised to reap the benefits 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% Dissatisfied 50% No view 40% Satisfied 30% 20% 10% 0% 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
  • 5. The page of history has turned Strong support for democracy and markets More people support democracy and market economy than 40% 36% alternatives 35% But one in ten still 30% 20% support a combination 25% of planned economy 20% 10% and authoritarian 15% 10% government Planned economy 5% Doesn't matter And one in five believe 0% Market economy that form of political t ov r cy tte ng cra and economic system ma ria mo n’ t does not matter for rit a De es t ho Do them Au
  • 6. … but significant variation across the region Percent of respondents who support market economy 80% CEB countries 70% clustered around R2 = 0.6366 moderately high 60% support for both democracy and 50% markets 40% While support for democracy and 30% markets in SEE and 20% CIS+M varies more 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Percent of respondents who support democracy widely SEE CIS+M CEB
  • 7. The better off tend to support democracy… Support for democracy, by income group 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Low income Medium High income income Democracy Doesn't matter Authoritarian gov't
  • 8. … as well as market economies Support for market economy, by employment 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Unemployed Employed Market economy Doesn't matter Planned economy
  • 9. Transition has eroded trust… 100% Across the region, 90% societal trust was 80% stronger prior to 70% 1989 60% Distrust 50% No view In general, trust is 40% Trust low in the transition 30% countries 20% 10% LITS confirms 0% previous survey Most people could Most people can be be trusted prior to trusted now findings in this field 1989
  • 10. … but not for every institution 60% 40% 20% Trust 0% Distrust No view -20% -40% -60% Government Parliament Political Police Presidency Forces Banks Courts Armed Parties
  • 11. Corruption remains a problem… quot;There is less corruption now than around 1989quot; 100% 90% 80% 70% 63% 63% 60% 75% 50% 40% 30% 17% 23% 20% 16% 10% 14% 19% 9% 0% CEB SEE CIS+M Agree No view Disagree
  • 12. 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Unemployment benefits Other benefits Police Infrequent Courts Official documents Sometimes Public education Corruption in public services … particularly in some sectors Road police Frequent Public health system
  • 13. Public prioritises spending on human capital CEB SEE Education Education Pensions Pensions Housing CIS+M Housing Education Health Health Pensions Housing Remaining categories are Health ‘Environment’, ‘Public infrastructure’ and ‘Other’
  • 14. Life in Transition Office of the Chief Economist EBRD www.ebrd.com/ economics