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Diaper Market Update:




                           Carlos Richer
                           Richer Investment SA de CV

New Orleans, Jan 25 2012
Baby diaper market size and
   potential by country
Country     Mkt Potential 2011 Current Mkt 2011     % Mkt Penetr   Growth Rate
United States   22.3 Billions/year 21.3 Billions/year       96%             -
China                  75.7               12.1              16%           +++
Brazil                 15.7                7.7              49%            ++
Mexico                  9.9                6.8              68%             +
Japan                   5.8                5.7              98%             -
Russia                  6.3                4.1              65%             +
UK                      4.1                3.8              95%             -
Turkey                  6.5                3.6              55%             +
France                  3.9                3.7              97%             -
Indonesia              18.5                3.3              18%             +
Germany                 3.4                3.3              96%             -
India                  99.6                2.4               2%            ++
South Africa            4.4                2.4              55%             +
Argentina               3.3                2.4              72%             +
Italy                   2.4                2.2              93%             -
Korea, South           2.40               2.16              90%             =
Spain                  1.98               1.91              96%             -
Egypt                  8.25               1.73              21%            ++
Canada                 1.88               1.76              94%             =
Thailand               3.59               1.51              42%             +
Saudi Arabia           2.18               1.64              75%             +
Vietnam                6.35               1.59              25%            ++
Iran                   5.86               1.46              25%            ++
Australia              1.46               1.35              93%             =
Venezuela              2.27               1.39              61%           ++ (*)
Country      Mkt Potential 2011 Current Mkt 2011   % Mkt Penetr   Growth Rate
Malaysia               2.49              1.24             50%           ++
Poland                 1.71              1.26             74%            +
Philippines           10.53              1.05             10%           ++
Nigeria               20.19              1.01              5%           +++
Taiwan                 1.15              1.09             95%            -
Colombia              2.210             1.485             67%            +
Peru                  2.333             0.910             39%            +
Morocco               2.519             0.952             38%           ++
Netherlands           0.879             0.844             96%            -
Algeria               2.372             0.688             29%            +
Pakistan             19.043             0.571              3%           ++
Chile                 1.090             0.572             53%            +
Belgim                0.570             0.541             95%            -
Ukraine               1.998             0.500             25%            +
Kazakhstan            1.079             0.496             46%            +
Azerbaijan            0.733             0.498             68%           ++
Portugal              0.500             0.483             97%            -
Greece                0.507             0.457             90%            =
Sweden                0.500             0.464             93%            -
Hungary               0.488             0.440             90%            =
Romania               0.959             0.423             44%           ++
Libya                 0.654             0.392             60%            +
Arab Emirates         0.400             0.388             97%            +
Guatemala             1.542             0.407             26%            +
Ecuador               1.270             0.381             30%            +
Country      Mkt Potential 2011 Current Mkt 2011   % Mkt Penetr   Growth Rate
Czech Republic          0.420            0.393              93%            +
Angola                  2.325            0.349              15%           ++
Syria                   2.229            0.334              15%            +
Ireland                 0.348            0.347             100%            =
Iraq                    3.587            0.323              9%             +
Dom.Republic            0.799            0.338              42%            +
Swistzeralnd            0.370            0.352              95%            -
Austria                 0.360            0.346              96%            =
Tunisia                 0.674            0.304              45%            =
Bangladesh             15.058            0.301              2%             +
Hong Kong               0.310            0.294              95%            -
Kuwait                  0.290            0.270              93%            +
Sri Lanka               1.439            0.259              18%            +
Denmark                 0.290            0.275              95%            +
Oman                    0.292            0.248              85%            +
New Zeland              0.293            0.273              93%            =
Finland                 0.287            0.276              96%            -
Slovakia                0.264            0.237              90%            +
Belarus                 0.450            0.247              55%           ++
Singapore               0.230            0.219              95%            =
Sudan                   6.607            0.198              3%            ++
Lebanon                 0.314            0.204              65%            +
Bulgaria                0.323            0.194              60%            +
Cuba                    0.542            0.163              30%            +
Puerto Rico             0.207            0.165              80%            +
World Statistics for baby diapers*
                    (* updated Jan, 2012)

   7 Billion people live in our planet today.
   129.6 Million babies were born in 2011.
   326 Million babies between 0 to 30 Months live today.
   342 million diapers will be changed today (Jan 25)
   World market penetration for disposable diapers today is 21%
   One third of the world remains with < 2% market penetration.
   Only 8.5% of the world with market penetration >90%
   About 817 baby diaper machines are running today.
Chassis Design World Trends
     For Baby Diapers
2012      China      USA       Europe     Australia   S. America   ME

KC



P&G


SCA




Other


        Hengan,            Ontex, Asda,
        Chiaus,            Sainsbury,
        Unicharm           Carrefour
        DSG, Impex




                           KC- Italy
Diaper Chassis Trends




                       




Core Trends………(Increased Density, ADL, lower 3D ratios)
Fastening Trends…..(BOPP, Hook, Loopless)
Elastic Trends….. Stretchable sides…Fully stretchable
Baby Pants Trends
Baby Pants .vs. Baby Diapers in Japan
                   100
                                          Baby Pants    Baby Diapers
                    90

                    80

                    70
                                          Compare with only 14.5% of
                                          pant sales in USA in 2010
% of Total Sales




                    60

                    50

                    40

                    30

                    20

                    10

                    0
                         1992      1995         2005       2010        2011
                                                 Year
0.50
                         0.45
$ Unitary Price in USD

                         0.40
                         0.35
                         0.30
                         0.25
                         0.20
                         0.15
                         0.10
                         0.05
                         0.00
                                 KC Little KC L. Movers KC Slip On    KC Pull
                                Movers 4 (37 Cameo 37 Lb 4, 37 lb    Ups, 40 lb
                                    lb)
Confidential
Elastic Side Panels
F: 100 mm X 100 mm
B: 140 mm X 130 mm
“Loopless System"




                                     Lycra Slip-On

                      Confidential
KC’s Little Movers Slip On - Data
   Instead of Spandex it uses an exclusive elastomeric material extruded in
    threads apparently manufactured on an Off-Line centralized site and
    then shipped all over the world to all its factories.
   The total GSM of the side panels is 125 GSM while relaxed and 40 GSM
    while extended.
   Elastic material is used at 24 GSM while Relaxed or 8 GSM stretched.
   Maximum elongation is 500% versus 300% for Spandex.
   Retractile force is about 40% of Spandex, you need more threads.
   It may be less expensive than other commercial side panels in the market




                                     Confidential
Adult diaper market
potential by country
Grow of people >65 between 2012 and 2025
                     225


                     200


                     175


                                     Older>65 Y2012   Older>65 Y2025
Millions of People




                     150


                     125


                     100


                     75


                     50


                     25


                      0
Grow of people >65 between 2012 and 2025
                    14

                                       Older>65 Y2012   Older>65 Y2025
                    12



                    10
Million of People




                    8



                    6



                    4



                    2



                    0
What is the biggest
    diaper market with an unmet
            need today?

Incontinence Diapers for those with Limited Mobility
Adult Incontinence: a new perspective
   Medical literature usually classify Incontinence in
    subgroups: Stress, Urge, Overflow, Mixed, and Bowel
    Incontinence. 31 million people in the US have
    Incontinence: 26 MM have urinary incontinent and 5 MM
    are bowel incontinent. It is estimated that 1/10 of the
    world population is incontinent.
   Let us explore incontinence by looking at it from the
    perspective of the users and not their urinary condition:
    Active Adults; and Bedridden or Wheelchair patients.
   How much risk do each have in relation to Incontinence
    Associated Dermatitis (IAD)?
Incontinence and Limited Mobility
   When an Active adult is wet, he/she is capable of changing
    the diaper. This action results in minimal risk of irritation to
    the skin and minimal IAD; being active helps to have
    healthy skin, for sure somewhat compromised with age.
   Babies are constantly cared by their parents, in addition
    they have the most elastic skin; because its young, baby’s
    skin is more resistant to damage than any other.
   Bedridden Adults and people in Wheelchairs are several
    times more prone to skin infections and IAD than babies
    or Active Adults due to weaker skin, the lack of mobility
    (pressure sores), and less overall care or attention.
Who needs the better diaper?
Who is using the best diaper?
The Diaper Paradox
   Only those who do not have alternatives, such as bedridden, or those who
    are in wheelchairs or hospitalized in intensive care, will be the only ones
    forced to use a diaper, they do not have a valid alternative.
   Most of these bedridden patients end up in Institutions.
   Institutional US diapers are close to being the worst in the world.
   The Paradox: People that require the best diapers many times end
    up using the worst performance products just because of
    government regulations.
   Many times the cost of skin control medications is by far more expensive
    than the cost of the diapers, many times the patience die because of skin
    infection that started with IAD.
   Using under-beds as a treatment for frequent or regular incontinence is a
    solution that denigrates users, in my opinion, they should be banned of this
    use.
What can be done?
   A new national health regulation is needed, it must be based on the needs
    of each kind of institutional patient, active and non active.
   Diapers designed for adults without mobility should be much drier than
    commercial diapers and also provide the required pH to help the skin with
    an acidic 4.5 pH and a low friction surface.
   A good solution is a diaper with an acidic top-layer separated from the
    alkaline poly-acrylate liquid retention region. This could be either curly
    fiber or a specially made ADL. (BMC Geriatr, France Nov 2010).
   Wetness in the diaper increases the toxicity of fecal incontinence as solid
    feces dissolve. Wetness is the most important cause of IAD, it is also the
    origin of main discomfort due to heath exchange from the body to the
    cold urine. Removing the urine from the diaper helps to eliminate the
    problem.
   What is the industry doing ?
UNICHARM’s Humany
Humany Unicharm
   A robot costing more than $1,284 USD per unit.
   Each disposable diaper has a cost of $3
   Designed for adult male users…. What about females?
   There are 3 Females for every male with incontinence.
   Uses an electronic sensor and a pump. Is this a good solution?
   Is there a better alternative? FOR SURE!!

   A new diaper that may cost less than a regular commercial diaper!
(2)
                         (1)




A suction cup made of rigid material
                                                   (magnets attached with a cord)




        Why a 1,320 solution when you can do the same with $9.99
(2)

        (10)                 (3a)
                      (30)



       (4)




                      (3b)
(3c)
               (30)
(32)




                                 (2)



                          (10)
              (1)


       (31)
                    (4)
(28)
       (27)



(29)




       (27)
Right idea….wrong approach

   Vacuum Dry Diaper was the wrong name!
   It is not a theoretical idea it is a proven concept
   We showed working prototypes at the Idea show in Miami.
   We demonstrated our concept to many companies… It works!
   The industry reacted in a defensive way… threatened…
   What we have invented is not a diaper it is a PDT:
   Personal Disposable Toilet
   The best solution yet for adult incontinence without mobility
Join the Disposable Diaper Network Group:
 www.linkedin.com/e/gis/136568
 www.disposablediaper.net

                 Thank You
                        Questions?
                                     What do I do?
                                     Diaper Factory Audits
                                     Strategic Planning
                                     Feasibility Studies
Carlos Richer
                                     Benchmark Reports
Richer Investment SA de CV
Diaper Consulting Services           Technical Support, R&D
www.disposablediaper.net             Machine Appraisals
cricher@richernet.com                Insurance Claims
                                     Expert Witness

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Diaper Market Update: Baby Diaper Market Size and Potential by Country

  • 1. Diaper Market Update: Carlos Richer Richer Investment SA de CV New Orleans, Jan 25 2012
  • 2. Baby diaper market size and potential by country
  • 3. Country Mkt Potential 2011 Current Mkt 2011 % Mkt Penetr Growth Rate United States 22.3 Billions/year 21.3 Billions/year 96% - China 75.7 12.1 16% +++ Brazil 15.7 7.7 49% ++ Mexico 9.9 6.8 68% + Japan 5.8 5.7 98% - Russia 6.3 4.1 65% + UK 4.1 3.8 95% - Turkey 6.5 3.6 55% + France 3.9 3.7 97% - Indonesia 18.5 3.3 18% + Germany 3.4 3.3 96% - India 99.6 2.4 2% ++ South Africa 4.4 2.4 55% + Argentina 3.3 2.4 72% + Italy 2.4 2.2 93% - Korea, South 2.40 2.16 90% = Spain 1.98 1.91 96% - Egypt 8.25 1.73 21% ++ Canada 1.88 1.76 94% = Thailand 3.59 1.51 42% + Saudi Arabia 2.18 1.64 75% + Vietnam 6.35 1.59 25% ++ Iran 5.86 1.46 25% ++ Australia 1.46 1.35 93% = Venezuela 2.27 1.39 61% ++ (*)
  • 4. Country Mkt Potential 2011 Current Mkt 2011 % Mkt Penetr Growth Rate Malaysia 2.49 1.24 50% ++ Poland 1.71 1.26 74% + Philippines 10.53 1.05 10% ++ Nigeria 20.19 1.01 5% +++ Taiwan 1.15 1.09 95% - Colombia 2.210 1.485 67% + Peru 2.333 0.910 39% + Morocco 2.519 0.952 38% ++ Netherlands 0.879 0.844 96% - Algeria 2.372 0.688 29% + Pakistan 19.043 0.571 3% ++ Chile 1.090 0.572 53% + Belgim 0.570 0.541 95% - Ukraine 1.998 0.500 25% + Kazakhstan 1.079 0.496 46% + Azerbaijan 0.733 0.498 68% ++ Portugal 0.500 0.483 97% - Greece 0.507 0.457 90% = Sweden 0.500 0.464 93% - Hungary 0.488 0.440 90% = Romania 0.959 0.423 44% ++ Libya 0.654 0.392 60% + Arab Emirates 0.400 0.388 97% + Guatemala 1.542 0.407 26% + Ecuador 1.270 0.381 30% +
  • 5. Country Mkt Potential 2011 Current Mkt 2011 % Mkt Penetr Growth Rate Czech Republic 0.420 0.393 93% + Angola 2.325 0.349 15% ++ Syria 2.229 0.334 15% + Ireland 0.348 0.347 100% = Iraq 3.587 0.323 9% + Dom.Republic 0.799 0.338 42% + Swistzeralnd 0.370 0.352 95% - Austria 0.360 0.346 96% = Tunisia 0.674 0.304 45% = Bangladesh 15.058 0.301 2% + Hong Kong 0.310 0.294 95% - Kuwait 0.290 0.270 93% + Sri Lanka 1.439 0.259 18% + Denmark 0.290 0.275 95% + Oman 0.292 0.248 85% + New Zeland 0.293 0.273 93% = Finland 0.287 0.276 96% - Slovakia 0.264 0.237 90% + Belarus 0.450 0.247 55% ++ Singapore 0.230 0.219 95% = Sudan 6.607 0.198 3% ++ Lebanon 0.314 0.204 65% + Bulgaria 0.323 0.194 60% + Cuba 0.542 0.163 30% + Puerto Rico 0.207 0.165 80% +
  • 6. World Statistics for baby diapers* (* updated Jan, 2012)  7 Billion people live in our planet today.  129.6 Million babies were born in 2011.  326 Million babies between 0 to 30 Months live today.  342 million diapers will be changed today (Jan 25)  World market penetration for disposable diapers today is 21%  One third of the world remains with < 2% market penetration.  Only 8.5% of the world with market penetration >90%  About 817 baby diaper machines are running today.
  • 7. Chassis Design World Trends For Baby Diapers
  • 8.
  • 9. 2012 China USA Europe Australia S. America ME KC P&G SCA Other Hengan, Ontex, Asda, Chiaus, Sainsbury, Unicharm Carrefour DSG, Impex KC- Italy
  • 10. Diaper Chassis Trends  Core Trends………(Increased Density, ADL, lower 3D ratios) Fastening Trends…..(BOPP, Hook, Loopless) Elastic Trends….. Stretchable sides…Fully stretchable
  • 12. Baby Pants .vs. Baby Diapers in Japan 100 Baby Pants Baby Diapers 90 80 70 Compare with only 14.5% of pant sales in USA in 2010 % of Total Sales 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1992 1995 2005 2010 2011 Year
  • 13. 0.50 0.45 $ Unitary Price in USD 0.40 0.35 0.30 0.25 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.00 KC Little KC L. Movers KC Slip On KC Pull Movers 4 (37 Cameo 37 Lb 4, 37 lb Ups, 40 lb lb)
  • 14.
  • 16. Elastic Side Panels F: 100 mm X 100 mm B: 140 mm X 130 mm “Loopless System" Lycra Slip-On Confidential
  • 17. KC’s Little Movers Slip On - Data  Instead of Spandex it uses an exclusive elastomeric material extruded in threads apparently manufactured on an Off-Line centralized site and then shipped all over the world to all its factories.  The total GSM of the side panels is 125 GSM while relaxed and 40 GSM while extended.  Elastic material is used at 24 GSM while Relaxed or 8 GSM stretched.  Maximum elongation is 500% versus 300% for Spandex.  Retractile force is about 40% of Spandex, you need more threads.  It may be less expensive than other commercial side panels in the market Confidential
  • 19. Grow of people >65 between 2012 and 2025 225 200 175 Older>65 Y2012 Older>65 Y2025 Millions of People 150 125 100 75 50 25 0
  • 20. Grow of people >65 between 2012 and 2025 14 Older>65 Y2012 Older>65 Y2025 12 10 Million of People 8 6 4 2 0
  • 21. What is the biggest diaper market with an unmet need today? Incontinence Diapers for those with Limited Mobility
  • 22. Adult Incontinence: a new perspective  Medical literature usually classify Incontinence in subgroups: Stress, Urge, Overflow, Mixed, and Bowel Incontinence. 31 million people in the US have Incontinence: 26 MM have urinary incontinent and 5 MM are bowel incontinent. It is estimated that 1/10 of the world population is incontinent.  Let us explore incontinence by looking at it from the perspective of the users and not their urinary condition: Active Adults; and Bedridden or Wheelchair patients.  How much risk do each have in relation to Incontinence Associated Dermatitis (IAD)?
  • 23. Incontinence and Limited Mobility  When an Active adult is wet, he/she is capable of changing the diaper. This action results in minimal risk of irritation to the skin and minimal IAD; being active helps to have healthy skin, for sure somewhat compromised with age.  Babies are constantly cared by their parents, in addition they have the most elastic skin; because its young, baby’s skin is more resistant to damage than any other.  Bedridden Adults and people in Wheelchairs are several times more prone to skin infections and IAD than babies or Active Adults due to weaker skin, the lack of mobility (pressure sores), and less overall care or attention.
  • 24. Who needs the better diaper? Who is using the best diaper?
  • 25. The Diaper Paradox  Only those who do not have alternatives, such as bedridden, or those who are in wheelchairs or hospitalized in intensive care, will be the only ones forced to use a diaper, they do not have a valid alternative.  Most of these bedridden patients end up in Institutions.  Institutional US diapers are close to being the worst in the world.  The Paradox: People that require the best diapers many times end up using the worst performance products just because of government regulations.  Many times the cost of skin control medications is by far more expensive than the cost of the diapers, many times the patience die because of skin infection that started with IAD.  Using under-beds as a treatment for frequent or regular incontinence is a solution that denigrates users, in my opinion, they should be banned of this use.
  • 26. What can be done?  A new national health regulation is needed, it must be based on the needs of each kind of institutional patient, active and non active.  Diapers designed for adults without mobility should be much drier than commercial diapers and also provide the required pH to help the skin with an acidic 4.5 pH and a low friction surface.  A good solution is a diaper with an acidic top-layer separated from the alkaline poly-acrylate liquid retention region. This could be either curly fiber or a specially made ADL. (BMC Geriatr, France Nov 2010).  Wetness in the diaper increases the toxicity of fecal incontinence as solid feces dissolve. Wetness is the most important cause of IAD, it is also the origin of main discomfort due to heath exchange from the body to the cold urine. Removing the urine from the diaper helps to eliminate the problem.  What is the industry doing ?
  • 28. Humany Unicharm  A robot costing more than $1,284 USD per unit.  Each disposable diaper has a cost of $3  Designed for adult male users…. What about females?  There are 3 Females for every male with incontinence.  Uses an electronic sensor and a pump. Is this a good solution?  Is there a better alternative? FOR SURE!!  A new diaper that may cost less than a regular commercial diaper!
  • 29. (2) (1) A suction cup made of rigid material (magnets attached with a cord) Why a 1,320 solution when you can do the same with $9.99
  • 30. (2) (10) (3a) (30) (4) (3b) (3c) (30)
  • 31. (32) (2) (10) (1) (31) (4)
  • 32. (28) (27) (29) (27)
  • 33. Right idea….wrong approach  Vacuum Dry Diaper was the wrong name!  It is not a theoretical idea it is a proven concept  We showed working prototypes at the Idea show in Miami.  We demonstrated our concept to many companies… It works!  The industry reacted in a defensive way… threatened…  What we have invented is not a diaper it is a PDT:  Personal Disposable Toilet  The best solution yet for adult incontinence without mobility
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