Focusing its strengths on serving the economy
Improving its financial strength by reaching
a CET1 ratio of 10% in 2013
Capitalising on the market-leading position of its retail
banks and associated business lines
1. Crédit Agricole meets the challenges
Focusing its strengths on serving the economy
Improving its financial strength by reaching
a CET1 ratio of 10% in 2013
Capitalising on the market-leading position of its retail
banks and associated business lines
14 December 2011
2. Disclaimer
This presentation may include prospective information on the Group, supplied as information
on trends. This data does not represent forecasts according to the meaning of European
Regulation 809/2004 of 29 April 2004 (chapter 1, article 2, §10).
This information was developed from scenarios based on a number of economic assumptions
for a given competitive and regulatory environment. Therefore, these assumptions are by
nature subject to random factors that could cause actual results to differ from projections.
Likewise, the financial statements are based on estimates, particularly in calculating market
value and asset impairment. As a consequence, this information has not been audited.
Readers must take all these risk factors and uncertainties into consideration before making
their own judgement.
This document includes information based on works and analyses in progress. Their
implementation would imply the respect of legislation in force, mainly regarding employee
representative bodies.
Only the French version of this presentation is binding by law.
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3. Key messages
The plan to reduce funding needs by €50bn was announced on 28 September 2011, with
€9bn already achieved at end-October
A new Corporate and investment banking model focused on serving major clients
In Q4-11, exceptional write-downs of €2.5bn with no impact on the Basel 3 CET1 ratio but a
negative impact of €0.5m on net profit linked to the plan’s implementation. As a result,
Crédit Agricole S.A. will not deliver a profit in 2011
Under current market conditions, Crédit Agricole Group will post a profit in 2011
Crédit Agricole Group will reach a Basel 3 CET1 ratio of 10% at end-2013
Crédit Agricole confirms its role as the leading financier of the French economy
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4. Contents
1 Turbulent economic and financial climate
2 Crédit Agricole adapts and meets the challenges
3 Financial and accounting impacts
4 Capital adequacy: Crédit Agricole Group will meet requirements in 2013
5 Crédit Agricole fully mobilised to serve its clients and the economy
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6. Turbulent economic and financial climate
Climate early 2011 New climate
1 A debt crisis which was to be In the United States, an unexpected slowdown,
restricted to Greece governance problems for the budget and debt.
Forecasts lowered
Crisis spread to all of Europe
Sovereign Rating agencies downgrade or place on watchlist
debt European states and banks
2 In France, GDP growth of 0.9% In the United States, following fears of a
observed in Q1, which was to recession, the outlook has improved slightly but
continue, even at a slower pace the eurozone is affected. Growth is curbed
Economic In the longer term, the United States In France, GDP growth of 0.3% in Q3 has led to
growth were to grow by 2.8% in 2018, Europe two government plans to cut the budget deficit
by 1.8% and emerging markets were
to continue to expand
3 Bullish markets, expecting weaker High level of nervousness on the bond and equity
growth but which was to last markets, particular concerns about the financial
Financial nevertheless sector
markets
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7. Agitated financial and regulatory environment
Environment early 2011 New environment
1 Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) Basel 3 CET1 ratio requirement: 9% as of 2013
requirement under Basel 3 : 7% in – More restrictive definition of capital
Capital 2018 – More severe weighting of capital market
adequacy Wide available range of capital activities
instruments Impact of the sovereign debt crisis on banks’ and
insurance companies’ capital
2 Significant recourse to transformation Scarcity of the USD and higher cost of liquidity
Resources still abundant and relatively Requirements to reduce debt and diversify
inexpensive sources of funding
Uncertainties regarding the application of new
Liquidity ratios
– LCR to meet short-term requirements
– NSFR to manage transformation
– Leverage ratio to limit balance sheet size
3 Profitability mainly measured by ROE Higher costs of liquidity and capital
Profitability Financing of activities through debt Financial impact of plans to reduce funding needs
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8. Change in market conditions further deteriorated
by an unprecedented regulatory shock
Acceleration of the timetable and tightening of regulatory requirements
Crédit Agricole Group
Timetable for application of the full Basel 3 CET1 ratio (at 31/12 of each year)
9% Anticipation by 5 years
+2 points
7%
Ratio required at
1 January 2019
Timetable at early 2011
New timetable (new requirements by both French authorities and markets)
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9. 2 Crédit Agricole adapts and
meets the challenges
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10. Structural reduction in funding needs
and a new corporate and investment banking model
Two parts to the adjustment plan
1. Structural reduction in funding needs of €50bn
between June 2011 and December 2012
announced on 28 September 2011
€9bn already acheived at 31 October 2011 Pro-active
management of RWAs
Rebuilding of liquidity reserves underway
(lowest point on 30/09/11 at €103bn, Impact on RWAs* for
€118bn on 28/11/11) CIB and Financial
Crédit Agricole S.A.: MLT market services:
programme of €12bn in 2012 compared to ~ -€23bn at end-Dec.
€22bn in 2011 2012 vs June 2011
2. A new Corporate and investment banking model,
servicing major clients
* Impact of measures, not taking into account regulatory reforms
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11. Measures by business line
Corporate and investment banking (1/2)
Announcement of target to reduce funding needs by €15 to 18bn, of
28 Septembre 2011 which €9bn by end 2011 and 75% in USD
A new Corporate and investment banking model for Crédit Agricole
A strategy aiming to limit assets retained on the balance sheet
– Adjustment towards a « Originate to Distribute » model
Origination and structuration of financing
Increase in bonds solutions
Increased development of syndication and securitisation
Early-stage partnerships with investors likely to participate in our syndications
– Increase advisory and M&A capacities: Investment banking and brokerage
A strategy servicing the Group’s major clients adapted to a new framework of banking
disintermediation
3 means of adaptation :
– Refocusing on major clients
– Geographical refocusing, with the closing of offices in 21 countries. CA CIB remains present in 32 countries which
together represent 84% of global GDP
– Withdrawal from some business lines:
Equity derivatives
Commodities
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12. Measures by business line
Corporate and investment banking (2/2)
1 Reduction of the balance sheet 2 Aligning of the cost base to the
reduction of the balance sheet
Adjustment of number of positions,
Reduction of liquidity need by about €18bn by representing a 13 % reduction of CIB
end-2012, mainly in equity derivatives and headcount
financing activities – Closing of operations in selected countries and
decrease in activities
– Additional initiatives targeting back office
functions
Further cost reductions (procurement,
reduced use of external service providers)
Impact on RWAs of approximately Adaptation of the model to generate
€30bn* by January 2013
3
revenues in a difficult environment
– Cutbacks in operations
– Disposals of loans and portfolios Support targeted clients
Adapt pricing to the new funding framework
Increase weighting of commission and fee
income in the revenue mix
* Including CRD3&4 regulatory impacts on disposals and excluding regulatory
impacts on the remaining scope
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13. Measures by business line
Financial services: consumer finance, leasing and factoring
28 September 2011 Announcement of the target to reduce funding needs by
€9 to 11bn
CACF: four actions to reduce liquidity needs by ~ €8bn
1 Organic decrease of
3 actions to
reduce activities
Going forward,
outstandings 2
by ~ €8bn Loan disposals 40% of the full-year impact
on revenues covered by cost
3 savings (adjustment of
Activities disposals targeted number of
positions)
Additional to 4
the plan: Diversification of
€4 to 5bn funding sources
While maintaining CACF’s position as a key player in the consumer finance market
CAL&F: reduction in customer assets by ~ €1bn at end-2012 as a result of two initiatives
– Disposal of leasing operations and portfolios
– Reduction in production
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14. Measures by business line
Retail banking
28 September 2011 Announcement of the target to reduce funding needs by
€21 to 23bn
Confirmation of the target to reduce funding needs: -€23bn
Retail banking in France: balanced development
– Accelerated growth in customer deposits against a backdrop of a higher savings rate in France
Refocusing new inflows on customer deposits
Priority given to client satisfaction
Conquering new deposit markets
Special focus on high net-worth individuals
– Steady growth in lending
In a context of lower demand
With pricing taking into account the cost of liquidity
International retail banking: strategies adapted to local environments
– Emporiki
Enhanced efforts to boost deposits and continued increase of our market share
Reduction in outstanding loans due to natural attrition
– Cariparma
Growth in inflows with refocusing on customer deposits
Controlled growth in lending
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15. Will to limit the impact on employment
Job cuts in two business lines
(Number of jobs) France International
Corporate and investment banking ~ 550 ~ 1,200
Consumer finance ~ 300 ~ 300
Staff transfers and employability encouraged, voluntary redundancies favoured
– A full support system encouraging jobs transfers, namely geographically, with optimisation of the
company's natural staff turnover and in agreement with the employee representative bodies.
– Staff adjustment plans favouring voluntary departures in the relevant companies in due compliance
with the social procedures in force in the various countries involved.
The Group will actively continue to hire in 2012
– Over 3,500 new recruitments in France, primarily in retail banking, and 3,000 additional staff hired on
work-based training contracts.
(In accordance with work legislation in force in the countries concerned)
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17. Financial and accounting impacts
in 2011
1 In Q4-11, impact of the adjustement plan on net income Group share ~ -€500m
– Provisioning of all staff adjustment costs
– Impact of portfolio disposals on revenues and cost of risk
2011 impact of the adjustment plan
(in €m)
(240) Impact on CIB
(70) (500) Impact on
Financial
(350) services
+265 Impact on CASA
(105)
2 In Q4-11, impact of goodwill impairment for Crédit Agricole S.A., taking into account the
adjustment plan : -€1,300m
– Decrease in earnings expected in 2011 and in subsequent years, resulting in the impairment of
goodwill:
Impact of -€1,053m for Corporate and investment banking
Impact of -€247m for leasing and factoring
No impact on capital adequacy ratio under Basel 3
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18. Financial and accounting impacts
in 2011
3 In Q4-11, other non-recurring impacts on Crédit Agricole S.A.'s net income Group
share due to the severe deterioration of the environment, with no impact on liquidity
nor on the Basel 3 capital adequacy ratio: -€1,234m
– Write-down of the value of minority stakes recognised under the equity method for a total
of -€981m:
Bankinter: -€617m
BES: -€364m
– Technical impairment of goodwill on foreign subsidiaries for a total of -€253m
Italy: -€191m
Ukraine: -€62m
Expected income for the year 2011:
– Taking into account these elements and deteriorated conditions in Q4-11, Crédit Agricole
S.A.'s consolidated result will be negative. Its Board of Directors will propose to the AGM
to not pay a dividend
– As a reminder, Crédit Agricole Group generated net income Group share of €3.3bn for
the first 9 months of 2011
– Under current market conditions, Crédit Agricole Group will post a profit
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19. Financial and accounting impacts
of the adjustment plan in 2012
Estimated cost of disposals planned in 2012 within the framework of the adjustment plan
(in €m)
(470)
(650)
Impact on CIB
Impact on Financial
+ 240 services
(60) Impact on CASA
2012: impact on net income Group share: -€470m
– Impact of planned portfolio disposals on revenues and cost of risk
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20. Financial and accounting impacts
medium and long term
Full-year impacts of the adjustment plan
(in €m)
~ (250)
(700) ~ +150
to
(750)
~ +350
Going forward, impact on net income Group share estimated at ~ -€250m
– Decrease in recurring revenues of approximately €700 to 750m
– Decrease offset for up to ~ 50% by cost savings
Going forward, total impact on RWAs for CIB and Financial services of - €35bn*
* Including CRD3&4 regulatory impact on disposals and excluding regulatory impacts on the remaining scope
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21. Crédit Agricole confirms the major strategic decisions of the Group
Strategic Plan and the Commitment 2014 plan:
Focus on universal customer-focused banking
Accelerated reengineering of CIB activities and financial services
The implementation of this strategy will proceed.
The current economic context and the adjustment plan will have an
impact on the timing of the implementation of the Commitment
2014 plan, and as a result we expect a phasing of our 2014 targets.
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22. 4 Capital adequacy:
Crédit Agricole Group will meet
requirements in 2013
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23. Capital adequacy:
Crédit Agricole Group will meet requirements in 2013
Capital adequacy is assessed by regulators at the level of Crédit Agricole Group
EBA stress test results published on 8 December 2011
– No additional capital requirement at June 2012 on the basis of EBA stress tests carried out on
Crédit Agricole Group
10 % of CET1 ratio at end-2013 for Crédit Agricole Group
– Decrease in RWAs of €60bn for Crédit Agricole S.A.*
– Policy of income retention within Crédit Agricole Group
– Crédit Agricole S.A. will systematically propose the option of scrip dividend to its shareholders from
2012 onwards
– Treatment of insurance activities under the financial conglomerate Directive and optimisation of
Crédit Agricole Assurances' capital composition
– Strengthening of the Regional Banks’ capital through the issuing of mutual shares
* Change between June 2011 and December 2013 of the risk-weighted assets calculated under full Basel 3
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24. Capital adequacy:
Crédit Agricole Group will meet requirements in 2013
(0.3%)
+ 0.6%
+ 0.6%
(0.8%)
Target
+ 1.6% CET1
(0.9%) Basel 3
fully
loaded
9.23%
~ 10%
Core Tier 1 Total Insurance Retained Adjustment Methodological Business Target
EBA Basel 3 impact (conglomerate) income and plan gains develop- end 2013
excl. insurance mutual shares ment
issues
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25. Crédit Agricole will reach a Basel 3 CET1 ratio of 10%
at end 2013 by drawing on its internal resources
Crédit Agricole Group is committed to carrying out the
adjustment plan
The Group confirms its full capacity to capitalise on its
internal flexibility and solidarity, based on its mutualist
structure
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26. 5 Crédit Agricole fully mobilised
to serve its clients and the
economy
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27. Crédit Agricole Group centered on
universal customer-focused banking
One year after the announcement of the Group Strategic Plan, Crédit Agricole Group
confirms universal customer-focused banking as its core model, a tight combination
between retail banking and associated business lines such as asset management and
insurance.
Retail banking and associated business lines represent a predominant share of the Group’s
revenues, approximately 80% of the business lines’ global net banking income.
Crédit Agricole continues to play the role of the leading financial partner to the French
economy:
– €477bn outstanding loans
– 6.4% year-on-year increase in outstanding loans at end September 2011
Crédit Agricole is mobilised on a day-to-day basis to support French people in their plans:
– 2,500 home loans granted each day to individuals
– 1,100 loan applications per day for small businesses and agricultural businesses
– 3,200 individual vehicles financed each day
– 4,800 household equipment loans granted each day
– 1,800 new car insurance policies written each day
– 440 new individual health insurance policies each day
Crédit Agricole Group has over 100,000 employees in France working daily to serve its clients.
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