Water agriculture and poverty-trying to unravel the complexity
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Presented at the BFP Special session in the 13th World Water Congress, Montpelier, France
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Water agriculture and poverty-trying to unravel the complexity
- 1. Water agriculture and poverty …trying to unravel complexity Simon Cook, Myles Fisher, Meike Andersson, Jorge Rubiano, Mark Giordano and BFP teams
- 2. Linkages between water, agriculture & poverty 1. Why care? 2. What linkages do we know about? – Logical: what do we know from studies? – Evidence: which seem the most influential? 3. How do these linkages work? – Identifying interventions to reduce poverty – Linking local, global and basin scales
- 3. 1 Why do we need to know?…
- 4. Agriculture and water receive $bns (as separate sectors) Aid by sector, 2002 Aid for water supply and sanitation, 1973-2002
- 5. World food crisis • Medium-term Impacts – Demand outstripping supply – Increasing food prices – Decreasing food security for poorest – Increasing costs of inputs
- 6. World Water Crisis: Declining per capita availability of water ‘000 m3 16 14 Africa 12 10 8 World 6 Asia 4 2 MENA 0 1960 1990 2025
- 7. Increasing demand by all users Agriculture uses > 70% of water
- 8. In summary • More people…more development… • …need more food (already takes > 70% of water) • …need more water • …other demands also increasing
- 9. Agriculture greatest user: Demand increasing Volta Devaraj de Condappa
- 10. 2 Drawing the links between water, agriculture and poverty Warning! Complexity ahead
- 11. And how to go from Global …
- 12. …to Local?
- 13. • The general picture
- 14. We know • That people use water in many ways (Peden et al. 2007)
- 15. We know • That agriculture occupies PART of a development trajectory Agriculture contribution to growth (%) World Bank, 2007
- 16. We know • That the poorest tend to rely on agriculture Agriculture vs GNI 50,000 Gross National Income ($/capita) 40,000 30,000 20,000 Size of bubble proportional to rural 10,000 population 0 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 -10,000 Agricultural contribution to GDP (% ) World Bank, 2007
- 17. We know • That water availability is NOT the only, (or main) driver Per capita income vs. GNI vs Water water availability 50,000 40,000 GNI ($/cap PPP) 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 -500 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 -10,000 Size of bubble proportional to agricutlure contribution to GDP 3 Water availability (m /cap) World Bank, 2007
- 18. • What does this mean in basins? A few observations
- 19. São Francisco: Drought is one factor…of many Drought Poor education Access to credit Marcello Torres et al., 2008
- 20. Karkheh: Farmers not the poorest situation modified by politics 0.40 0.35 0.30 0.25 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.00 KB ed r er k er ry r n ke ke er so nt ag rm oy or Cl r ou wo er an Fa pl w ep C m M d n e lle ad io Un ct ki Tr du ns o U Pr Poverty lines from household Karkheh BFP team income and expenditure data
- 21. Basic concept: Need Water productivity to respond faster than demand Demand response line WP crisis time
- 22. Actual Water-Productivity [the gain per m3 water consumed] much lower than potential Volta IRD, 2007 Potential= 1-2 kg/m3
- 23. Mekong: water productivity responding partially to demand 0.800 Laos 3 Water productivity, kg/m 0.600 Thailand 0.400 Cambodia Vietnam 0.200 Vietnam Central 0.000 highlands 1990 1995 2000 2005 Vietnam Mekong River Delta Year Mac Kirby, 2007
- 24. But.. Mekong What people do can affect (shared) assets Dam development Changing land use, shifting cultivation, sustainability, sedimentation Seasonal water shortage, poor soils, low rice productivity Fish & environmental impacts of Salinisation, water upstream, quality, highly competition land developed Complex but understandable Eric Kemp-Benedict, 2008
- 25. 3 How do water and agriculture combine to influence livelihoods
- 26. 3 Coupling water, agriculture and poverty alleviation Water Improve collective availability outcome by distribution Increase collective gain Non-poor “Benefit-sharing of multiple uses” Developing / protecting NR assets ”Increasing Improve Water productivity” outcome from a given use Water productivity Poor
- 27. Global -to local links GLOBAL water and food systems considered separately both impact on livelihoods Basin scale Systems interact through (Unspecified) transfers Local Scale Local systems considered individually Local impact not referenced to broader systems
- 28. Summary • Water and food systems both impact on poverty: – Driven by development demand – Water productivity measure of response/activity • At local scale, linkages between water, food & poverty are direct, non-crossing • Cross-over between food and water occurs at basin-scale.
- 29. Thank you
- 30. • Volta Scenarios under climate change 160 Comfortable Lake Volta storage (km3) 140 Storage capacity (148 km3) 120 Vulnerable 100 Critical 80 60 Top of inactive (70 km3) Wetter scenario 40 Reference scenario 20 Drier scenario 0 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 Year of simulation De Condappa et al., 2008