Nile Basin Focal Project

Nile Basin Focal Project
j
Review of Plans

IWMI–ILRI- NBI- ENTRO-World Fish
Consortium
by

Supported by: CPWF

02/02/2008, Cali Supported by: CPWF

Introduction
The Nile Basin: Some statistics
• River: Longest river in the world
world,
6,670km; 3,400,000 km²

• Basin countries: Burundi
Burundi,
Egypt, Eritrea, Ethiopia, DR
Congo, Kenya, Rwanda,
Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda
• Population: riparian 360M, basin
exceeds 180M


Importance of the Nile
– The current dependence of countries
• The D/s complete dependence
• For U/s as an opportunity to overcome poverty

– Ecosystem
y
• Important ecosystem functions such as wetland, fisheries,
recession agriculture, …

– Potentials
• Great hydropower to overcome energy shortage
• Significant irrigation potential
• Significant potential to improve rainfed
• Scope for flood defense
• Saving f
S i of water and potential of overall productivity i
t d t ti l f ll d ti it increase


Key Problems :
BFP Related

Nile t Aswan = 84 1BMC
Nil at A 84.1BMC

Atbara = 11.1BMC
Blue Nile at Khartoum = 48.3BMC

White Nile at Khartoum = 26.0BMC

About 86% comes from Eastern Nile, Ethiopia
Nile


Key Problems :
BFP Related
• Water, Food and Poverty: Food Crises, Famine & Disaster related to water
Drought and Disaster Affected Population

25
f ce p p l i n m i n r g )
A e t d o u to ( ilo o %e

20
l

15 Disaster/drought affected
population (mil)
Proportion affected (%)
a

10

5
f

0
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Year (Ethiopian Calender)

Amount of Food Required (MT)
1,800
1 800
Thousands

1,570
1,600
Foor Required (MT)

1,400
1,324
High Rainfall Variability and Flood.
1,200
1,000 798
897
965
819
Kenya 1956-1982
800 707
538
R

600
276 300
Flood: K
Fl d Kenya, Sudan, Ethiopia
S d Ethi i
400
200
0
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Year

Drought and consequential food
aid-Ethiopia

Key Problems :
BFP Related
Water, Food and Poverty: Agriculture, GDP
N ile B as in Ag ric u ltu ra l P o p u la tio n
Data: A fric a Developm ent Indic atros , 2006 bas ed on 2004 data

–Major occupation is 100
agricultural, with slow 90

ltural Population
80
1979-1981
transformation 70
60 1989-1991
50 1999-2001
40 2003
30 2004

A gricul
20
10
0

t

a
n

ea

a

i
ia

da
ia
yp

nd
R

ny
da

nd

op
an

it r
,D

an
Eg

ru
Ke
Su

ga

hi
Er
nz

Bu
go

w
Et
U

R
Ta
on
C
C ountrie s

Im p a c t o f r a in f a ll v a r ia b ilit y o n G D P a n d
–GDP and Agricultural A g r ic u lt u r a l G D P g r o w t h
80 25
GDP-correlates to Rainfall 20
60
Variability. Eg. Ethiopia
V i bilit E Ethi i 40
15
10
20 5
0
%

0
-5
1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000
-2 0 -1 0

-4 0 -1 5
ra i n fa ll va ri a b i li ty -2 0
-6 0
G D P g ro w th -2 5
-8 0 A g G D P g ro w th -3 0
year

Physical and Economic Water Scarcity
East Africa Per Capita Physical Water Availablity

2500

Internal Fresh Water Resources per
Physical 2000

scarcity: Not

m^3)
1500

Capita (m
r
enough 1000

water. 500

I
0
Economic Burundi Rwanda Somalia Kenya Eritrea Sudan Uganda Ethiopia Tanzania
Countries
Scarcity: Not
infrastructure 7/10 in Nile basin are
to make already physically
water scarce
water
available t
il bl to
people

National rainfall map shows better true picture of physical water scarcity eg. Ethiopia:
globally not physical scarce, but >50% of Ethiopia is actually physically scarce

Key Problems :
BFP Related
Despite the potential, low intervention and water usage eg in irrigation

8,000
8 000
irrigation potential (1000 ha)
7,000 existing irrigation (1000 ha)

6,000

5,000

4,000

3,000

2,000

1,000

0
C

t

ea

a

da
da

n
i

ia

ia
yp
nd

ny

da
DR

op

an
it r

an
an
Eg
ru

Ke

Su
Er

hi

nz

Ug
Bu

Rw
Et

Ta

Irrigation potential and usage per Nile country (not all are Nile dependent potentials)


Key Problems :
BFP Related
• The basin is complex. Keys are:
– t find a b l
to fi d balance b tbetween llevel of d t il and
l f detail d
analysis required and the need to gain an
overall picture of water productivity livelihoods
water, productivity, livelihoods,
and poverty within the basin
– How do CP projects and the BFP contribute to
solutions in the basin


The Work Packages Inter-linkages

Analysis
y

Poverty

Water Availability Nile BFP
Development and
And Access Application of Goal and
Knowledge Base Objectives
Agricultural Water
Productivity

Institutions

Interventions


Work & Outputs
Phase I: Inception
– D fi d detail study sites recommendations
Defined d t il t d it d ti
– Database of gathered literature
– W lk
Walkover/basin t
/b i tour report t
– Established consortium of implementing and
advisory groups
d i
– Detailed project design document including
impact pathway gant chart, milestones task
pathway, chart milestones,
sharing, …


Phase II. Implementation Phase

• Poverty Analysis (WP1)
– Literature review report on poverty and vulnerability
– GIS products and shape files
– Database on poverty
– Poverty and vulnerability map
– Spatial information and maps on population-poverty,
production systems-poverty, poverty and vulnerability,
d ti t t t d l bilit
etc
– Tools for disseminating spa a information sys e
oo s o d sse a g spatial o a o system
together with WP6


Phase II (cont’d)
• Water Availability and Access(WP2)
– Literature review report on basin information (from master plans,
published and grey literature, …)
literature )
– Rapid assessment of regional and global data sets DataWP2.doc
– Product and report on water use for current and future trends
– Simulated information (for data scarce locations)
– Water accounting report for various production system
– Water availability information
• Major water components disaggregated spatiall and temporall (basin
ater spatially temporally
and sub-basin; monthly, seasonal, annual)
• Variability and trends at key locations
• Water availability and scarcity maps
y y p
• Maps of various types of drought and their indices


Phase II (cont’d)
• Agricultural Water Productivity (WP3)
– Literature review report on production systems (rainfed, irrigated,
pastoral, fisheries,
pastoral fisheries wetlands including interactions) based on
national and regional statistical data, databases and reports on
water productivity, yields, value of products. Also based on existing
CP projects, FAO, NBI, ENTRO, …
– Rapid assessment report signifying on physical and economic
water productivity per unit of water depleted by evapotranspiration
and other uses
– R
Report on analysis of spatially di
t l i f ti ll disaggregated areas b
t d based on
d
poverty, productivity and pressures
– Knowledge of the basin based on how water availability and access
impact livelihoods, vulnerability and growth opportunities at and
livelihoods
across different scales and uses
– Information package on water productivity, livelihood, poverty and
their interactions


Phase II (cont’d)
• Institutional Analysis(WP4)
– Literature review report on
• National and transnational policies, Economy-wide policies/institutions macro-
p , y p
economic issues, trade.
• Policies/institutions affecting investment in water resources, allocation and use of
water
• Conflicts (origin, prediction, prevention and resolution)
• I l di identification of: Diff
Including id tifi ti f Difference b t
between written policy/law and practice and
itt li /l d ti d
why; Gaps in the policy or legislative framework; Institutions that can play key roles
in generation and dissemination of knowledge
– comprehensive and detailed water related institutional analysis and trends in
the countries and the basin
– Detail analysis report on key areas where policy/institutional constraints affect
poverty, or reallocation of water
– PRA (Participatory rural appraisal) report to understand the interplay of
institutions at various scale
– Report on institutional and policy change needs and on good practices for
such changes
– Information product on Institutional setup across countries, basin level, and
actors.
actors Engagement of advisory panel NBI
panel, NBI,


Phase II (cont’d)
• Intervention Analysis (WP5)
– Literature review report on: intervention types under various
production systems; sub basins; success and failures; intervention
sub-basins;
scales; technical, policy and institutional factors;…
– Mapped intervention types
– Detail analysis report on performance of interventions
interventions,
– Models for evaluating quantitative impacts of interventions
– Special study report on recommendations report on suits of
interventions, necessary mechanisms and implications
– Tradeoffs analysis, ranking and modeling result report to identify
high potential interventions and their impacts
– Problem tree and impact p
p pathway report
y p


Phase II (cont’d)
• Development and application of the knowledge
base (WP6)
–IInventory report on data sets
t t d t t
– Common share point platform for all datasets
– Adaptation and customization of p
p previous knowledge
g
product (GIAM, Poverty Map, Population Map,…)
– Communication mechanism amongst core team,
advisory panel and stakeholders (working meeting,
workshops, t i i
k h training,…))
– Communication platform (newsletter, D-group, etc)
among BFPs and COPs
– Report on analysis of impact of the project on boundary
partners (short term)
– Synthesis workshop report


Expected Nile BFP
Achievement and Beneficiaries

– Enhanced awareness and understanding of the
problems in the basin
– Well developed GIS supported information and
database system for the basin that can be used by all
stakeholders
t k h ld
– Development of scientific methodologies and
methods of analysis for population, p
y p p poverty,
y
production systems, policy and intuitions for Nile
Water Governance
– Highly interacting basin communicate and effective
networks
– Matured web-site, D-groups, and media serving as a
common pool for Nile knowledge system


Partners
Implementing partners
• IWMI: lead institution
• ILRI: leads poverty analysis, contributes to WPs
• NBI: leads institution, contributes to WPs
• ENTRO: contributes to WPs
• World Fish: major role in WP4, contributes to other WPs
• CPWF Nile B i C di t
Nil Basin Coordinator
Consultative group:
• Nile CoM, Nile TAC, NBI 7 SVPs, ENSAP and NELSAP Projects, FAO,
ASARECA, Universities, ARIs,
ASARECA Universities ARIs CGIAR centers NGOs …
centers, NGOs,
Special Study Team:
• Consultants, professionals, professors, … undertaking specific studies eg.
country study, specific competence area study, etc
Existing project and programs:
• 4 CP projects: CP37, CP19, CP28, CP36
• Many non CP projects such as BMZ-Livestock and CC projects (IWMI),
RiPPLE (ODI) SAKSS (ILRI IFPRI) World Bank and AfDB projects
(ODI), (ILRI-IFPRI),


Beneficiaries
• Local and Sub-Sector Institutions:
Agriculture (Crop Fisheries Livestock
(Crop, Fisheries, Livestock,
Irrigation), DPP, Hydropower, Environment,
…
• National Institutions: Country Basin
Authorities, NGOs, …
, ,
• Regional Institutions/Community: NBI-SVP
and SAP; ASARECA, IGAD, NEPAD, ….
; , , ,
• Global: CGIAR, Donors,


Conclusion
• The Nile Basin is complex river basin and highly variable
in terms of water availability, development, use and
management t
• There is no comprehensive and adequate information
system
y
• There are quite a lot of actors in the Basin but not well
networked and interacting
• The Nile Basin still possesses high potential for
development, but require breakthrough in win-win
cooperation
• O t t of Nile BFP could significantly contribute t
Outputs f Nil ld i ifi tl t ib t to
establishing a consorted research efforts and knowledge
base linking directly to development


Thank Y
Th k You


Nile Basin Focal Project

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