1. Mekong BFP Review
Mac Kirby, Mohammed Mainuddin, CSIRO
Matt Chadwick Chayanis Krittasudthacheewa Eric
Chadwick, Krittasudthacheewa,
Kemp-Bendict, SEI
David Clayton, MRC
Cali workshop, September 2007
2. Outline
• Brief introduction to the
Mekong
M k
• Overview of issues
• What can change?
• BFP products &
p
dissemination
• Data sources
• General approach
• What worked and what
didn’t
3. The Mekong
China
Myanmar
• 6 countries, 4 in Mekong
countries
Laos
Luang Prabang
River Agreement, China Thailand
and Myanmar observers
• ~60 m people, majority
Tonle Sap
Cambodia
Vietnam
rural 500 km Phnom
• ~4,200 km long; 795,000
km2; 495,000 mcm
discharge (495 km3)
4. The Mekong in the CP -
wettest basin
1.2
supply limit
capacity lim
it li it
1
0.8
ET/ETo
0.6 Indus
Volta Mekong
Ganges
0.4 Yellow Sao Francisco
Limpopo N iger 1600
1400
Nile 1200
0.2
Rai mm
1000
Karkheh
in,
800
600
400
0 200
0
co
M o
g
s
w
h
Ka s
lta
r
Fr ile
ge
p
on
he
ge
cis
du
llo
po
0 0.5 1 1.5
Vo
o N
an
ek
rk
Ye
Ni
In
an
m
G
Li
Sa
P/ETo
6. Hydrology - floods
• Extensive in Cambodia and
delta
• St llarge volumes
Store l
• Also much storage during peak
flows, in main channel,
tributaries and wetlands
(Songkhram stores large
volumes, for example)
7. Water use
• Upland China
• Forested Laos
g
generates most
runoff
• Drier, cropped NE
Thailand
• Irrigated delta
Overall water use
8. Crop production - rice
• Based on national
statistics (are they all
( y
measured the same?)
• Rice average yield
• Is Th il d l ?
I Thailand low?
• Increases everywhere?
6.00
Laos
5.00
on/ha
Thailand
4.00
4 00
Rice yield, to
3.00 Cambodia
2.00 Vietnam
1.00
Vietnam Central
0.00 highlands
1990 1995 2000 2005 Vietnam Mekong
River Delta
Year
9. Gross value of
production
• GVP per capita - also
have per hectare etc
• No increase?
120
Laos
GVP of rice, $/capita
100
Thailand
80
60 Cambodia
40 Vietnam
20
Vietnam Central
highlands
0
Vietnam Mekong
1990 1995 2000 2005
River Delta
Year
10. Water productivity -
rice
• Based on estimated ET
(
(FAO crop coefficient
p
approach)
• Thailand Cambodia low?
0.800
Laos
3
ductivity, kg/m
0.600 Thailand
0.400 Cambodia
Water prod
Vietnam
0.200
Vietnam Central
highlands
0.000
1990 1995 2000 2005 Vietnam Mekong
River Delta
Year
11. Other crops
• Sugar and maize
• Sugar - Thailand high?
6.00
Laos
aos
5.00
Maize yield, ton/ha
Thailand
4.00
3.00 Cambodia
2.00 Vietnam
1.00
1 00
Vietnam Central
0.00 highlands
1990 1995 2000 2005 Vietnam Mekong
River Delta
Year
80
Laos
Sugarcane yield, ton/ha
60 Thailand
40 Cambodia
Vietnam
20
Vietnam Central
0 highlands
1990 1995 2000 2005 Vietnam Mekong
River Delta
Year
12. Livestock
• Not increasing as
p
percentage or per capita
g p p
100
GVP of livestock as % Ag
Laos
80
Thailand
a
60
Cambodia
40
Vietnam
20
Vietnam Central
highlands
0
Vietnam Mekong
1990 1995 2000 2005
River Delta
Year
50
Laos
apita
40
GVP of livestock, $/ca
Thailand
30
Cambodia
20
Vietnam
10
P
Vietnam Central
highlands
0
Vietnam Mekong
1990 1995 2000 2005
River Delta
Year
13. Fisheries
• Very important inland fisheries - especially capture fisheries
Tonle Sap and rapidly increasing aquaculture in delta
• Estimates of yield unclear - consumption estimates regarded
as more reliable and are 2-3 x production estimates.
2-
• However, few trend estimates for consumption.
• Current growth rate unclear (uncertain estimates), but
maybe 0.5 m tonnes last ten years mainly aquaculture
05 years,
1400000
1200000
Change in measurements
1000000
All fish, tonnes
800000
600000
400000
200000
0
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005
Laos Thailand Cambodia Vietnam VCH VMD
15. Fisheries - as
proportion of total
1500 1,000
Cambodia 800
Laos
GVP, million $
GVP, million
1000 600
400
500
200
0
0 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Year
Year
Crop Livestock Fish low estimate
Crop Livestock Fisheries Fish - high estimate
5000
Thailand
5000
Vietnam
4000
GVP, millio $
4000
on
GVP, million
n
3000
3000
2000
2000
1000
1000
0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 0
Year 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Crop Livestock Fish low estimate Crop Year
Livestock Inland fisheries
Total Thai fish , Mekong agriculture
16. Poverty related
indicators
These data were classified
by equal interval value. We
y q
are testing with the different
classifications as well (such
as the data distribution)
No agri land ownership (%)
agri. Non-permanent
Non permanent structured Lack of food security (%)
house (%)
Non-permanent structured house (%)-
classified by four quantiles
No motorcycle (%) No TV (%) No cow and buffalo (%)
17. Flooded area (%) Drought
Indicator- April
Water constraints
NPP departure
from longterm
mean April NPP
No access to safe water within 150m
Malaria Incidence No access to sanitation-toilet (%)
(%)
(cases per 1000 people)
18. Mekong issues
• Population ~60 m, +13m (18 %) to 2015, +58m
(80 %) to 2050
• Economic development, increasing energy
demands - upstream hydropower development
• Increasing food consumption, changed food
g p , g
demands
• Climate change, IPCC 2001
2020s 2050s 2080s
Temp change, °C +1 +2 +3
Rain change, % +2 +4 +7
Shorter more intense wet season longer more
season,
intense dry season
Most systems (food & fibre production,
ecosystems, health) vulnerable
• Fisheries and delta irrigation fully exploited?
• Water quality / saline intrusion delta DEM
19. Mekong
issues 2
Dam development
Changing land use, shifting
cultivation,
sustainability, sedimentation
Seasonal water Agricultural and dam
shortage, poor soils, development, downstream
low rice productivity impacts
Fish & environmental
impacts of upstream,
p p , Salinisation, water
competition land quality, highly developed
20. What can change?
(caution 1)
• History of Cambodia - “rulers
and great powers came and
went; some were benign,
some oppressive; they
fought their battles and
intrigues largely remote from
the daily lives of the
common people, but could
people
nevertheless greatly
influence the common plight;
the
th people lived their lives as
l li d th i li
best they could in spite of it
all...”
• Be humble and realistic
21. What can change?
(caution 2)
• Great change occurring
anyway
• Growing population
• Shift to urban
• Rising living standards
(uneven)
• Trade and
communications
• Hydropower development
22. What can change?
Small scale
• No single solution
•L l
Local
democratisation of
water governance
• Rice - fish systems
delta and elsewhere
- Laos
• Crop management -
fertilisers
23. Fisheries growth
prospects?
• Demand will increase due to population increase
and diet change
• Expected increase ~ 1 m tonnes by 2020, 3.5 m
tonnes by 2050
• Current growth rate unclear (uncertain estimates),
but maybe 0.5 m tonnes last ten years, mainly
aquaculture
1400000
1200000
Change in measurements
1000000
All fish, tonnes
800000
600000
400000
200000
0
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005
Laos Thailand Cambodia Vietnam VCH VMD
24. What can change?
Medium scale
• Balanced assessment of
developments - Pak Mun Mun,
Khone Falls
• Agricultural productivity -
low in Cambodia (soils,
varieties, fertilisation,
management) and
Thailand (soils,
?fertilisation)
?f tili ti )
25. Crop production,
g
growth prospects?
p p
• Demand will increase with
growing population
• There is growth, but Thailand
growth
and Cambodia could do better
with water (Thailand) and
fertilisers
• + 4m tonnes rice Thailand in
high agriculture / irrigation
development scenario - but
would it destroy Tonle Sap fish?
6.00
Laos
5.00
/ha
Thailand
Rice yield, ton/
4.00
3.00 Cambodia
2.00 Vietnam
1.00
Vietnam C t l
Vi t Central
0.00 highlands
1990 1995 2000 2005 Vietnam Mekong
River Delta
Year
26. Per capita
• Based on national
statistics for yield and
Mekong social atlas for
population
• No or very modest
increase, except
Vietnam - export
1200
Rice productio kg/capita
Laos
1000
Thailand
800
on,
600 Cambodia
400 Vietnam
200
Vietnam Central
0 highlands
1990 1995 2000 2005 Vietnam Mekong
Vi t M k
River Delta
Year
27. Livestock growth
prospects
• There will be a shift to meat
(especially Thailand)
• Not increasing as percentage
or per capita
100
GV of livestock as % Ag
Laos
80
Thailand
60
Cambodia
40
Vietnam
20
VP
Vietnam Central
highlands
0
Vietnam Mekong
1990 1995 2000 2005
River Delta
50 Year
Laos
apita
40
GVP of livestock, $/ca
Thailand
30
Cambodia
20
Vietnam
10
P
Vietnam Central
highlands
0
Vietnam Mekong
1990 1995 2000 2005
River Delta
Year
28. What can change?
Large scale
• Strengthening the
Mekong River
Agreement and other
regional agreements.
• Strengthening the
(
(ineffectual?) MRC
)
• Regional approaches
to water, land and
,
energy
29. Dam development
Phnom Penh reach China
Increased dam storage for hydropower - maximum
development scenario of MRC: ~ 23,000 mcm China;
27,000 Thailand, Laos, Vietnam Myanmar
Laos
Reduces flood peaks increases dry season flows
peaks,
Luang Prabang
Impact on flood dependent ecosystems and fisheries?
Thailand
Observed flow
Phnom Penh
Calculated flow
100000
Tonle Sap
90000
80000 Cambodia
Vietnam
70000 500 km Phnom
60000
Flow, mc
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
1 12 23 34 45 56 67 78 89 100 111 122 133 144 155 166
Months
30. Dams and agriculture
develop
p
Phnom Penh reach
Increased dam storage for hydropower and increased
China
areas of irrigated agriculture (one scenario only)
f d l ( l )
Dry season flows not increased as much as dam Myanmar
development only - water diverted for irrigation Laos
~ 4m Tonnes extra rice vs impact on flood dependent Luang Prabang
ecosystems and fisheries? Thailand
Observed flow
Phnom Penh
Calculated flow
100000
Tonle Sap
90000
80000 Cambodia
Vietnam
70000 500 km Phnom
60000
Flow, mc
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
1 12 23 34 45 56 67 78 89 100 111 122 133 144 155 166
Months
31. Climate change
Phnom Penh reach China
Increased intensity of wet season
Greater flood peaks
Myanmar
Laos
More destructive - but also may help preserve flood Luang Prabang
dependent ecosystems and fisheries
Thailand
140000 Current Tonle Sap
Clim change
ate
120000
Cambodia
Vietnam
100000 500 km
m/m
Phnom
flow, mcm
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
0 50 100 150 200
months
32. Tensions will remain
• Upstream - downstream
•D l
Development -
t
environment
• Hydropower - fossil fuel
• Big power - sharing river
• Ri h - poor (
Rich (access)
)
• No easy answers
33. What can change?
International?
• “1000 projects”
• Wh t are the big
What th bi
issues?
• What are the gaps?
• Coordination
• S th i
Synthesis
34. BFP products and
dissemination
• Synthesis reports
and maps
d
• Agriculture
• Fish
• Poverty
• Synthesis
35. Synthesis
• Poverty based on a range of indices - physical
and social
Probability that poverty is low, medium and high
36. Dissemination
• Reports
• Maps and datasets
• Workshops and
p
visits
• Partnership in
networks
(SUMERNET)
• Via the MRC
(partner)
37. Impacts
• Follow on AusAID climate change project
• Invited to comment on AusAID strategy for the
Mekong, and new AusAID water and climate
strategy (all regions)
• Invited to do analogous integrated work at smaller
scale in Krishna basin (ACIAR)
a a ba ( )
• SUMERNET
• Potential beyond this?
38. Data sources
• Many….. Jan Feb Mar Apr
• Climate, river flow
Climate
• Agriculture, fisheries
• Human, poverty
p y May Jun Jul Aug
• International datasets
• MRC - social atlas,
hydrology, water useSep
hydrology Oct Nov Dec
D
• National databases -
p
poverty, agriculture,
y, g ,
fish
• Research literature
Monthly NPP (Average for 1982-1993, g/m2/month)
> 200
< 200
• Grey literature
< 175
< 150
< 125
< 100
< 75
< 50
39. General approach
• Water use account
• Poverty survey
• Food productivity -
actual,
actual constraints • Poverty mapping
and opportunities
• Linking poverty to
food and water
• Trends, constraints
and opportunities
pp
40. Poverty - water
modelling
• Bayesian
network model
t k d l
Higher incidence of
• Low penetration
p
poverty
y Interested in areas with
(High: 42%>26% ) cropland affected by
drought
improved water
access
Given low water
supplies
Lower incidence of
poverty Interested in areas with
(Low: 40%>23%) cropland affected by
drought
• High
penetration Given high
water supplies
improved water
i d t
access
41. What worked and
what didn t
didn’t
• Did…..
• Basin focus and overview
• Mix of expertise - physical to social, systems
• Basin tour - very important
• Participants with direct, long term experience
• Water accounts
• Livelihood assets approach to poverty, with water based assets
poverty
included in Bayesian model
• Different issues and solutions in different areas
• Integrated issues - eg energy and water
• Didn’t
Didn t…..
• Water poverty
• Who is it for - CPWF or basin