Presented at the Basin Focal Project Poverty Mapping Workshop, November 2007, Chiang Mai, Thailand

1. Building a robust indicator for monitoring
progress and prioritising investment
Less stress
No change
More stress
Dr Caroline.Sullivan, Oxford University Centre for Water Research

2. The starting point for the WPI
The GWAVA model of water
resources in E and S Africa
-2.00 to -1.90
-1.75 to -1.50
-1.00 to -0.50
-0.50 to 0.20
0.20to1.0
Source: Meigh et al, 98 1.50 to 1.75
0
1.90 to 2.00
Dr Caroline.Sullivan, Oxford University Centre for Water Research

3. Assessing links between water & poverty
using the Water Poverty Index (WPI)
Indices: A means of measuring something otherwise immeasurable,
and a method of conveying information .
To be useful, the WPI must be: Calculating the WPI
• Easy to calculate ∑ wiXi
• Cost effective to implement WPI = i =1 or, it can be
• Based as far as possible on existing data expressed
∑ wi like this:
• Transparently calculated i =1
• Easy to understand wrR + waA + wcC + wuU + weE
WPI =
S u b -c o m p o n e n ts R e so u rc e wr + w a + wc + wu + we
S u b -c o m p o n e n ts A ccess O v e ra ll
S u b -c o m p o n e n ts C a p a c ity W PI The WPI
v a lu e has a low
S u b -c o m p o n e n ts U se
score if
S u b -c o m p o n e n ts E n v iro n m e n t people are
Each component is made up of subcomponents
water poor
and combined using the same composite structure
Dr Caroline.Sullivan, Oxford University Centre for Water Research

4. Illustrating the value of the Water Poverty Index:
Examples from The Dominican Republic & Haiti
These two countries located on the same island, provide
an excellent example to demonstrate the value of the Water
Poverty Index.
Although the physical conditions are very similar, the
scores on the national level WPI are very different.
Water managers in each country can see where their
weaknesses lie, and so actions can be prioritised
Country Resources Access Capacity Use Environment WPI
Dominican Republic 7.33 14.30 15.38 11.45 10.93 59.40
Haiti 6.15 6.20 10.47 6.46 5.84 35.12
WPI component values
Dominican Republic and Haiti (WPImax =100)
The situation in Haiti
20 Resources is much worse than in
15
Dominican the Dominican
10 Rep.
Environment
5
Access (WPI=59.3) Republic – this is
0
Haiti
mostly thought to be
(WPI = 35.1) due to
Use Capacity
poor governance
Dr Caroline.Sullivan, Oxford University Centre for Water Research

5. Application of the WPI at the national
scale to 148 countries
Dr Caroline.Sullivan, Oxford University Centre for Water Research

6. Applying the WPI to provincial level data
An example from the Mun River basin,
An example from
Thailand S u b - b a s i n o f M u n B a s in
Benin, West L a m D o m N o i (0 5 3 2 ) 4 4 .5
L a m T a k h o n g (0 5 0 5 ) 3 7 .6
Africa L a m S a e (0 5 0 3 ) 3 7 .1
L a m N a n g R o n g (0 5 0 8 ) 3 5 .6
T h ir d P a r t o f L a m N a m M u n ( 0 5 2 2 ) 3 5 .5
H u a i T h u n g L u n g (0 5 3 1 ) 3 5 .4
L a m P h r a p h lo e n g ( 0 5 0 4 ) 3 2 .5
L o w e r P a rt o f L a m N a m M u n (0 5 3 0 ) 3 1 .5
L a m S a B a i (0 5 2 7 ) 2 8 .6
U p p e r P a rt o f L a m N a m M u n (0 5 0 2 ) 2 7 .7
L a m S a B o k (0 5 2 8 ) 2 4 .2
L a m S a T h a e t (0 5 1 3 ) 2 3 .8
L a m P h a n g S u (0 5 1 4 ) 2 3 .6
L a m P h l a p p h la ( 0 5 1 7 ) 2 3 .1
Regional WPI L a m P la i M a t (0 5 1 0 ) 2 2 .2
Benin
H u a i T a k h o n g (0 5 1 5 ) 2 1 .6
22
H u a i A e k (0 5 1 2 ) 2 0 .8
23 - 33
34 - 39 L a m C h o e n g k ra i (0 5 0 6 ) 2 0 .7
40 - 43 L a m C h a k k a ra t (0 5 0 7 ) 2 0 .0
44 - 46 1 9 .7
L a m T a o (0 5 1 8 )
47 - 50
L a m D o m Y a i (0 5 2 9 ) 1 9 .1
51 - 55
L a m P a th a i (0 5 0 9 ) 1 9 .0
56 - 63
1 8 .9
H u a i P h o n g (0 5 2 6 )
L a m C h i (0 5 1 6 ) 1 8 .1
L a m S ie o N o i (0 5 2 0 ) 1 7 .6
H u a i K h a y u n g (0 5 2 5 ) 1 7 .3
H u a i S a m ra n (0 5 2 3 )
1 7 .2 Resource, WPI_R
1 7 .1 Access, WPI_A
H u a i T h a (0 5 2 4 )
Capacity, WPI_C
S e c o n d P a rt o f L a m N a m M u n (0 5 1 1 ) 1 5 .2
Use,WPI_U
L a m S ie o Y a i (0 5 1 9 ) 1 5 .1
Environment, WPI_E
H u a i S a m ra n (0 5 2 1 ) 1 1 .8
- 10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00 50.00 60.00 70.00 80.00 90.00 100.0
WPI of 31 Sub-basins in Mun River 0
Dr Caroline.Sullivan, Oxford University Centre for Water Research

7. Application of the WPI approach to date
• The UN Food and Agriculture Organisation: The WPI being used as the basis for the development of
a Rural Water Poverty Index which is being carried out by the FAO Land and Water Division
• CANADA – The government of Canada has decided to develop a CanadianWater Sustainability Index
which has been designed on the basis of the Water Poverty Index. The main objective of this is to
evaluate water access and resources in the communities of indigenous people. In the workshop we
adapted the WPI methodology and added in an additional component representing culture.
• Taiwan – Application of the WPI at regional levels by Ministry of Water Resources, key issues identified
through a Delphi process by government officials
• Australia: The WPI has been used as the basis for the development of an index to be used by the
Australian Aid Organization (AUSAID). This index will be used to evaluate performance in the water
sector in Pacific Island states in which Australia has a strategic interest. (working with the University of
Western Australia and Griffith University, Brisbane
• Southern Africa: The WPI has been the basis of the development of a climate change related tool
referred to as the Climate Vulnerability Index. This has generated a lot of interest, and is currently being
further developed and applied in the Orange River Basin, a large transboundary basin which includes
South Africa, Botswana, Namibia and Lesotho.
• The CGIAR (Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research) For the Challenge
Programme on Water and Food , the WPI has been identified as a model which can be used to evaluate
progress in their research programme.
• The Global Water Systems Project (GWSP) Part of the International Science Union – Dr Sullivan
organised a workshop in Wallingford, for the Global Water Systems Project, to develop a methodology
of developing integrated indices from large scale global datasets. This resulted in the development of a
report which has been published as the GWSP working paper no 1, entitled ‘Mapping the Links Between
Water Poverty and Food Security’ (www.gwsp.org)
• USA - Contribution to the development of an integrated ‘security index’ for SANDIA, and the Centre for
Strategic and International Studies. The WPI was used as an example of how an integrated index could
be developed and Dr. Sullivan participated in the conceptualisation meeting as the ‘water expert’.
• Other – numerous students from Thailand, Indonesia, Nigeria, Kenya, Argentina, Chile, Zimbabwe,
Nepal, Ethiopia, S. Africa, UK and the United States have been conducting research on the application
of the WPI in various countries.
Dr Caroline.Sullivan, Oxford University Centre for Water Research

8. Potential use of other sources of data
Save River
Flooding of
27 February
2000
Limpopo River
Chokwe
Incomati River
Xai-xai
Maputo
Dr Caroline.Sullivan, Oxford University Centre for Water Research

9. Usefulness of the integrated index approach
WPI
Resource Access Human Efficiency Environmental
supply Capacity, of use integrity
infrastructure
Benefits of WPI Problems with WPI
– All-embracing – All-embracing
– Flexible – Inconsistent
– Able to combine – Mixes information
information types
Dr Caroline.Sullivan, Oxford University Centre for Water Research

10. Examining how WPI components may be
related
Investigating Conditional Independence in the WPI
Resources
100
CI Conditional Independency
can be investigated using
80
Bayesian techniques
60
40
Access
Environment
20
0
CI Conditional Independency
Use Capacity
Dr Caroline.Sullivan, Oxford University Centre for Water Research

11. Building Bayesian Networks
Identify problem, Construct preliminary
consult stakeholders BN
Use information to suggest
possible outcomes
Provide feedback to Collect data,
stakeholders, modify BN expert opinion
Dr Caroline.Sullivan, Oxford University Centre for Water Research

12. Potential structure
Developing an Component Variables
index for the CP Health Access to sanitation
Access to safe domestic
water
The structure of such an index
Child mortality under 5
could include a measure of
Environment Flow Change
water resources which act as a
Fragmentation of Habitats
constraint on the following
Water Quality
components:
Biodiversity
• Health
Food Malnourished Children
• Food security
Food self sufficiency
• Environment
Climate vulnerability
• Productivity
Political vulnerability
• Institutional/human capacity Capacity Participation
Expenditure in Water sector
Education
Infrastructure
Institutional capacity
Water Productivity industrial
agriculture
Dr Caroline.Sullivan, Oxford University Centre for Water Research

13. Extending the WPI through a Bayesian
approach
WPI
Resource Access Human Efficiency Environmental
supply Capacity, of use integrity
infrastructure
Rainfall Access Land Capacity Env.
Likelihood of sufficiency LS 11.67 7.00 2.33 3.50 1.00
Likelihood of necessity LN 0.18 0.82 0.26 0.44 1.00
p(Non-Poor) Site Rainfall Access Land Capacity Env. p(Poor)
0.31 Semi-arid -3 -3 4 1 2 0.69
0.55 Riverside -3 4 -1 2 3 0.45
NOTES:
1. Large number means it's all you need
Probabilities make
2. Small number means you need it
3. Certainty that conditions are OK: best (+5) to worst (-5) uncertainties
explicit
Dr Caroline.Sullivan, Oxford University Centre for Water Research

14. Publications on the Water Poverty Index
• Publications Journal Papers
• Sullivan C.A. and Meigh, J.R. (2007) Integration of the biophysical and social sciences using an indicator approach:
Addressing water problems at different scales Journal of Water Resources Management
• Sullivan C.A. and Meigh J.R (2003) The Water Poverty Index: its role in the context of poverty alleviation. Water Policy,
5:5. Oct 2003
• Wallace, J S., M.C. Acreman and C. A. Sullivan (2003) The sharing of water between society and ecosystems: from
advocacy to catchment based co-management. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal society of London, B Biology Dec
2003, 513-528
• Sullivan C.A., Meigh J.R., Giacomello A.M., Fediw T., Lawrence P., Samad M., Mlote S., Hutton C., Allan J.A., Schulze
R.E., Dlamini, D.J.M., Cosgrove W., Delli Priscoli J., Gleick P., Smout I., CobbingJ., Calow R., Hunt C., Hussain A.,
Acreman M.C., King J., Malomo S., Tate E.L., O'Regan D., Milner S. and Steyl I. (2003) The Water Poverty Index:
Development and application at the community scale. Natural Resources 27:189-199
• Sullivan, C.A. (2003) The Water Poverty Index: A new tool for prioritisation in water management. In: World Finance. 32-
34
• Sullivan C.A. (2002). Calculating a Water Poverty Index. World Development, 30, 1195-1210.
• Sullivan C.A., (2001). The potential for calculating a meaningful Water Poverty Index. Water International, 26, 471-480.
• Sullivan, C. A. (2000) Redefining the Water Poverty Index – A commentary. Water International, 25.4.
• Research Reports
• Sullivan, CA., Vörösmarty, C., Bunn, S.,Cline, S., Heidecke, C., Storygard, A.,Proussevitch,A., Douglas, E., Bossio, D.,
Günther, D., Giacomello, AM., O’Regan, D and J.R. Meigh (2006) Mapping the Links between Water, Poverty and Food
Security GWSP Working Paper/ CEH Report 2006 (in press)
• Sullivan, C.A., Meigh JR and Fediw T (2002) Developing and testing the Water Poverty Index: Phase 1 Final Report.
Report to Department for International Development, Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, UK.
• Sullivan, C.A. (ed.) 2000. Constructing a Water Poverty Index: a feasibility study. Centre for Ecology and
Hydrology/DFID.
• Lawrence, P. Meigh, J.R. and Sullivan, C.A. (2002) The Water Poverty Index, and International Comparison. Keele
Economics Research Papers, 2002/19
• Book Chapter
• Sullivan C.A. and Meigh J.R. (2003) Access to water as a dimension of poverty: the need to develop a Water Poverty
Index as a tool for poverty reduction. In: Olcay Ünver I.H., Gupta R.K. and Kibaroğlu A. (eds.), Water Development and
Poverty Reduction, Kluwer, Boston, 31-52.
• Training handbook
• Sullivan, C.A., Meigh, J.R. and D. P. O’Regan (2002) Evaluating your water: A Management Primer for the Water
Poverty Index. CEH Wallingford.
Dr Caroline.Sullivan, Oxford University Centre for Water Research