Rachel Nunn describes the Going carbon Neutral Stirling Project at the Low Carbon Communities Conference 4th october 2008.

1. Our mission is to provide a blueprint Our aim is provide a beacon

3. How BIG is the problem? Despite 82% UK concern, only 4% public personal activity – Ipsos MORI 2007 7 years left to keep below global 2 °C warming – WWF 2008 Annual reduction targets need to be 8% to 9% - Tyndell Centre 2007 Global CO2e is still rising exponentially – IPCC 2008 Even if CO2 emissions stopped tomorrow, we are committed to 1.4 degrees of average global warming

5. Where are global temperatures heading? (Follow the green line on the right!)

6. 1 ºC global warming IMPACTS X This map of mountain glacier mass balance changes since 1970 shows thinning in yellow and red, and thickening in blue.

7. 2 ºC, 2003 Heat Wave = ‘the norm’

8. 2 ºC, Sea Level Rise

9. 2 ºC, Ocean Acidification

11. 3 ºC Amazon Rain Forest Destruction

12. 3 ºC Soil Microbes release CO2 under stress

14. 4 ºC, Antarctic Ice Sheet Collapse = 5m sea level rise

15. 4 ºC, Methane from Permafrost melt

16. 4 ºC, Ice Free Arctic Ocean

17. 5 ºC global warming - IMPACTS To understand the implications of 5 ºC of warming, we need to go back 55 million years ago when the Earth experienced a sudden and dramatic global warming.

18. Climate Change Impacts on Scotland Species invasion – e.g. ticks & mosquitoes Flooding, increased frequency, increased intensity Food price increases, changing diets PHYSICAL / LAND HUMAN IMPACTS Fuel price increases, later fuel shortages Influx global climate change refugees Coastal erosion Possible war Growing gap between rich and poor with more severe impacts What are the ripple effect impacts of each of these?

19. The inspiration behind going carbon neutral Stirling tipping a nation… (without legislation) … into immediate, mass, multi-faceted voluntary behaviour change So what was the task exactly?

20. In order to effect …. … that is…. We need to understand… Meaningful & Widespread Collectively owned Mutually supportive Evaluated Voluntary personal carbon reduction

21. Key Elements of GCNS 1) The areas of emission in our personal carbon footprint

22. 12 tonnes 11 tonnes 10 tonnes 9 tonnes Emissions 8 tonnes CO2 5 tonnes Year 4 tonnes Per 3 tonnes 2 tonnes Head 1 tonne Per 7 tonnes Scottish 6 tonnes Annual

23. For global climate change to have a hope of remaining under control, what should our emissions be? 2007. World population = 6 billion 2050. World population = 9 billion

24. … .by 2035 1 tonne Per year =

25. 1.5 tonnes FOOD 2 tonnes RECREATION & LEISURE 1.5 tonnes HOUSEHOLD ELECTRICITY 2.5 tonnes HEATING SPACE 1 tonne CLOTHING 0.5 tonne 1 tonne COMMUTING 0.8 tonne AVIATION 1.2 tonnes HYGIENE EDUCATION

27. Plenty of advice…but no support = attitude-behaviour gap Behaviour barrier, 1 of 6 “ whilst we know we should probably make some changes to the way we do things, we are always rushing around and don’t remember. We need reminders in the right place, and supportive help that goes right through, in practical terms, to the bitter end…without hassle and cost!” We don’t act because:

29. No social norms 1 tonne COMMUTING It’s not socially normal to say (to your peers and employer): “ Moving to new offices?” So I need to… x

31. Skegness The Caribbean Toyota Land cruiser Aspirational (fun, cooler, smarter, affluent) Non-aspirational (routine, less cool, banal, ‘poorer’) Bus HIGHER CARBON LOWER CARBON Your own parking space X SMART Car

32. Behaviour barrier, 4 of 6 Complexity & number of messages “ carbon reduction involves an enormous quantity, variety and complexity of action, we don’t know what to believe, or what to do, so we end up doing nothing” We don’t act because:

33. Behaviour barrier, 5 of 6 Ease of Action “ currently, it’s hard to be a carbon cutter. We need lower carbon goods and services to be easier to find than other products and services, preferable to use, and better priced” We don’t act because:

34. Hybrid Cars Bio-fuels Slower road speed limits Tele-communications Electric Fleet Car sharing Bus Trains Trams Hi-Speed trains Cycling SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORT SOLUTIONS THINGS WE’VE HEARD…PERCEPTIONS? Walking Fragmented Service Non-recyclable so higher lifecycle footprint Global Famine Not aspirational. Slow Same CO2 as planes Late More Expensive Crowded Not ubiquitous, infringes on personal flexibility Lower comparative mileage performance No infrastructure Mileage Issues Expensive, ? quality, not ubiquitous, not as good as face to face Huge set up carbon footprint Impossible to enforce. Slowing traffic increases CO2. Hugely unpopular Need to have the time Not safe Thefts

38. STEP 1 We contact them through recognised ambassadors STEP 2 We meet them at their regular group meeting (ease of action) STEP 3 We show them the effects of climate change.. STEP 4 ..and ask if they will say ‘YES’! to become part of the Stirling critical mass carbon cutting project STEP 6 … with whom we create the group’s FIRST YEAR CARBON CUTTERS PLAN STEP 7 We give up to 6 support sessions throughout the year, overcoming obstacles collectively and collaboratively. STEP 5 We identify the group’s First Year Activator… At the end of year one, the group is invited to repeat the process for a second and third year…. 1 ° 2 ° 4 ° 5 ° 6 ° 3 °

39. 3 year Community Carbon Cutting Plan Yrs 2 & 3: Infrastructural changes ATTITUDE CLOSED BEHAVIOUR + Settlement Open Days Yrs 1 - 3 Smart n’ easy (brain & body trainers) Immediate ease of action Large degree of normality YRS 2 & 3 Carbon Crushers Perceived new ‘desire’ , new aspirations & norms Reduction in conflicting messages More demand = greater ease of action Creates ease of action Engenders social norm Demonstrates joined up thinking

40. Plenty of advice…but no support = attitude-behaviour gap Behaviour barrier, 1 of 6 Each GCNS community group acts as its own weekly support infrastructure, through asking ‘who remembered?’. We remind, encourage, cajole and compete with each other, to remember to carry out our carbon cutting action. By talking to each other, we start to understand our local infrastructural needs. These are then coordinated through the GCNS team to local delivery partners.

41. Behaviour barrier, 2 of 6 Social Norms By asking each engaged community group to talk about their carbon cutting on a weekly basis, GCNS starts to normalise the idea of day to day carbon reduction. In addition, we will start to see carbon cutting in our local shops, in our local newspapers, hear about it on our local radio…everywhere we go in Stirling in fact, we will see that others are part of this critical mass project

43. Behaviour barrier, 4 of 6 Complexity & number of messages GCNS puts the carbon cutter plan into being – one action per week that everyone takes, and everyone is reminded to take. GCNS will ask participants “what language worked for this activity?” “what reminder mechanism would work better?” ”How else can we help you make this happen?” We will record what tools and practices work for the varying groups, and improve our delivery with this feedback.

44. Behaviour barrier, 5 of 6 Ease of Action GCNS will work with GCNS communities, bringing them together in annual open days, in order to discover mutual needs that will aid further carbon cutting. These ‘infrastructural demands’ will be assessed for their carbon validity, and then taken to the ‘delivery community’ such as the council & businesses.

45. Behaviour barrier, final one Conflicting messaging & non-joined up thinking GCNS works with businesses and public bodies to help them get their own houses in order. Then, with their staff engaged as ‘communities’ we look at businesses’ external activity and messaging, as perceived by the public, and realign it to our area’s low carb aspirations.

49. NOW 2035 12 tonnes 6 tonnes 1 tonne GCNS Carbon Descent Model, the trajectory and what it looks like…. Getting started, with smart and easy carbon brain and body trainers Making real progress with effective carbon crushers With the collaboration of businesses & the council to help us with infrastructural changes… So that cutting more carbs becomes easy again

52. Questions…