Only some emerging technologies will become disruptive. Can we identify which ones? If so, how? We'll survey some current methods for: analyzing present conditions, examining trends on the horizon, spotting which might become disruptive, and preparing for the unexpected.

1. Planning for Disruption:
Governance, Strategy, and Management
in a Web 3.0 World
February 7, 2011
Jay Collier • jay.collier@thecompass.com
bit.ly/nercomp_disruption
B. S. Wise

2. “An act of delaying
or interrupting the continuity”

3. “A ‘disruptive innovation’ is an
innovation that transforms an existing
market or sector — or creates a new
one — by introducing simplicity,
convenience, accessibility, reliability,
and affordability”

4. SURVEY
Most disruptive of 20th century?
40
Air travel 8%
30 Electricity 39%
The Internet 38%
20
Nuclear weapons 4%
10
The Pill 3%
0
Untitled 1

5. SURVEY
Who is most responsible?
50
Agile incumbents 13%
37.5
Early adopters 34%
25
Investors 6%
12.5 Scrappy upstarts 47%
0

6. SURVEY
Which have been most disruptive?
Proprietary systems ! Open software and standards
Text interfaces ! Graphical Web browsers
Landlines ! Cell phones and network access
Wired modems ! Broadband and wireless networks
Real-time video viewing ! Digital video recorders
Centralized servers ! Peer-to-peer file sharing
Expensive mainframes ! Cheap portable storage
Content management ! Free blogging services
Video studios ! YouTube and camcorders
Local storage ! Cloud computing, accessed anywhere

7. The way it was ...
David DeHeter

8. The way it was ...
Luis Argerich

9. The way it has been ...
NASA Goddard Photo and Video

10. The way it will be ...
GE Healthcare

11. Vizzzual.com

12. docsearls

13. Andrew de Poda

14. Martin Luff

15. Martin Luff

16. • Inventory local conditions
• Survey underground pressures
• Evolve agile practices
Assoc. Bay Area Governments

17. Inventory local
conditions
David de Hetre

18. INVENTORY LOCAL CONDITIONS
Business context
Mission Statement
Ford Motor Company:
Values Statement
We are a global family with a proud
Microsoft:
heritage passionately committed to
providing personal mobility for honesty,
Competitors/constituents
We value integrity,
people around the world.Amnesty International:
openness, personal excellence,
constructive self-criticism,
SWOT Statement
• UN Human Rights Commission
continual self-improvement, and
mutual respect. Strengths Weaknesses
• Médcins Sans Frontières
Expertise
Location
Marketing
Distribution
Innovative svc. Quality
• Human Rights Watch
Opportunities Threats
International Price war
Mergers Regulations

19. INVENTORY LOCAL CONDITIONS
Governance framework
Marc Smith, Colin Project Perfect, Level Five Solutions

20. INVENTORY LOCAL CONDITIONS
Definitions for success
30 Lines, David Carrington, Wesley Fryer

21. INVENTORY LOCAL CONDITIONS
Current staff and budgeting structure
Matthew Cua, D’Arcy Norman, Jay Collier

22. INVENTORY LOCAL CONDITIONS
Domain architecture
Jay Collier

23. INVENTORY LOCAL CONDITIONS
Tactical priorities

24. Survey underground
pressures
Stephen Jones

25. SURVEY EXTERNAL PRESSURES
Environmental scan

26. SURVEY EXTERNAL PRESSURES
Virtual prediction markets

27. SURVEY EXTERNAL PRESSURES
Delphi forecasting method
ADOPTION WITHIN
ONE YEAR Mobile computing & open content
ADOPTION WITHIN
THREE YEARS Electronic books & simple augmented reality
ADOPTION WITHIN
FIVE YEARS Gesture-based computing & visual data analysis

28. SURVEY EXTERNAL PRESSURES
Scenario development
Communications technology scenarios 2015
Digital The Wide The Long Great World of Imbrication
Balkanization Open World Recession Points Nation
Course management
Libraries
E-books
Collaboration tools
Scholarly communication
Administrative computing
Computer hardware
Professional development
NITLE

29. SURVEY EXTERNAL PRESSURES
Systems approach
Jay Collier, Wikipedia

31. Prepare for unexpected
challenges
San Jose Library

32. PREPARE FOR DISRUPTION
1. Monitor

33. PREPARE FOR DISRUPTION
2. Listen
Pelle Sten, Tim Pierce, Kristen Wolff

34. PREPARE FOR DISRUPTION
3. Prioritize
Eliatt, Jay Collier

35. PREPARE FOR DISRUPTION
4. Prototype
Text

36. PREPARE FOR DISRUPTION
5. Formalize
Rob Enslin, Babak Fakhamzadeh, Daniel Panev

37. PREPARE FOR DISRUPTION
6. Operationalize
Robert Higgins, Perhapstoopink, UMass, EDUCAUSE

38. PREPARE FOR DISRUPTION
7. Iterate
1996
2001
2006
Wikipedia

39. PREPARE FOR DISRUPTION
8. Evaluate
s
Benefits (revenue, lead generation) - Costs (people, materials) = ROI
Bill McChesney, TopRankBlog

40. PREPARE FOR DISRUPTION
9. Repeat
Awareness Knowledge Selection Satisfaction Loyalty Advocacy
Robin Corps

41. Planning for Disruption:
Governance, Strategy, and Management
in a Web 3.0 World
bit.ly/nercomp_disruption
Jay Collier • jay.collier@thecompass.com
B. S. Wise