Denmark, 100% renewable Energy Dinamarca, 100% energia renovable Coenercat, Congrés d'Energia de Catalunya

1. CoEnerCat Congrés d‘Energia de Catalunya
Barcelona 25 November 2013
Denmark
100% renewable Energy
Henrik Lund
Professor in Energy Planning
Aalborg University, Denmark

2. Aalborg University, Denmark
Jutland/Denmark:
•
•
•
•
25% wind power (120,000 owners)
High share of the world’s offshore power
30% Distributed Generation
50% of electricity supplied by CHP

3. 100% renewable energy solutions !
• What we already have done in Denmark
• What we aim to do in the future…
(100% Renewable Energy)
• How this can be done
(…illustrated by the IDA Energy Plan 2030)
• Recent developments in smart energy systems
marked based integration of wind power

4. The first oil crisis in 1973
The Danish energy consumption in 1972
Primary Energy Supply 1972
Oil
Coal
Natural Gas
Renewable Energy

5. 30 Years of active Energy
Planning
30 years of active Government
and Parliament Energy Policies.
Including NGO alternative
strategies and public debate

6. Difficult Economical situation In
Denmark in the early 80ies
Net Foreign Depth in Denmark
Unemployment in Denmark
10.0
8
7
Percent of population
Percent of GDP
0.0
-10.0
-20.0
-30.0
-40.0
-50.0
1945
6
5
4
3
2
1
1950
1955
1960
1965
Year
1970
1975
1980
1985
0
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
Year
1970
1975
1980

7. Energy Policies: The 80ies
Objective in focus:
Socio Economy
(Jobs and
balance of payment)

8. Feasibility Studies methodologies
Mid 80´ies:
• Heat planning procedure in all
municipalities
• feasibility studies including jobs
and balance of payment issues in
the priority
• made possible for authorities to
run job creation and innovative
energy policies and planning

9. Foreign Depth
Net Foreign Depth in Denmark
10.0
Percent of GDP
0.0
-10.0
-20.0
-30.0
-40.0
-50.0
1945
1955
1965
1975
Year
1985
1995
2005

10. Job creation
Unemployment in Denmark
8
Percent of population
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1945
1955
1965
1975
Year
1985
1995
2005

11. 40 years with a stable
energy consumption
World Primary Energy Consumption
400
RES
1000 PJ
300
Nuclear
200
Ngas
Oil
100
0
1900
Coal
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000

12. Heated Space and Heat Demand
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Index 1972=100
Domestic heating
Fuel for House Heating
PJ
1972
1980
1988
1996
2003
300
Space
Heat demand
250
RES
200
District
Coal
PJ
Heating
150
Ngas
140
100
Oil
120
Distributed CHP
100
50
80
60
0
1972
1980
1988
1996
2003
Large CHP
Boilers
40
2009
20
0
1972
1980
1988
1996
2003
2009

13. Danish
electricity
production
Big power
stations
Small CHP
plants
Wind
turbines

14. At present Denmark is still
self-sufficient
Danish Primary Energy Supply
PJ
Danish Energy Production
PJ
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
1972
Oil
1980
Coal
1988
1996
Natural Gas
2004
2012
Renewable Energy
1972
1980
Oil
1988
Natural gas
1996
2004
Renewable Energy
2012

15. Danish oil production and
prognosis
The Danish Energy Authority, 2002

16. Value of Danis h E nerg y P roduc ts
40
30
Total
20
1.000 MDK K
Export of
energy
technology
and fuels
O il
10
Natural
G as
C oal
0
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
E lec tric ity
2005
-10
-20
-30
Value of Danis h E nerg y P roduc ts
Danis h export of E nerg y T ec hnolog y
60
50
45
1.000 MDK K
20
10
0
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
The Danish Energy Authority, 2006
1.000 MDK K
C rude
oil
30
14%
30
12%
25
10%
20
8%
6%
10
40
16%
35
Natural
gas
18%
40
15
50
20%
4%
5
2%
2005
0
0%
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
E x port
S hare
of Total
E x ports

17. Export of
Danish Energy Technology

18. 3 Challenges
Danish CO2 emissons
70
65
Mio.ton
• Climate Change
60
Actual
55
Corrected
50
45
World Primary Energy Consumption
40
'90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07
400
Year
RES
1000 PJ
300
• Security of supply
(Fossil fuels)
Ngas
Oil
100
Coal
0
1900
Danis h export of E nerg y T ec hnolog y
50
20%
45
18%
40
16%
35
1.000 MDK K
• Industry, economy
and jobs
Nuclear
200
14%
30
12%
25
10%
20
8%
15
6%
10
4%
5
2%
0
0%
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
E xport
S hare
of Total
E xports
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000

19. The long-term Objective of
Danish Energy Policy
Expressed by former Prime
Minister Anders Fogh
Rasmussen in his opening
speech to the Parliament in
2006 and in several political
agreements since then:
Prime minister 16 November 2008:
”We will free Denmark totally from
fossil fuels like oil, coal and gas”
To convert to 100%
Renewable Energy
Prime minister 16 November 2008:
”… position Denmark in the heart
of green growth”

20. New Government
September 2011
• 100% RES by 2050
• 100% RES for electricity and
heating by 2035
• No coal on power plants and no oil
for heating households by 2030
• 50% wind in electricity supply by
2020
• 40% CO2 reduction by 2020
compared to 1990

21. Plans how to make the
transformation to 100%
Renewable Energy Systems

22. Energi System Analyse Model
www.EnergyPLAN.eu

23. Wind production Eltra 1996 (2042 MWh pr MW)
500
Wind energy
MWh/h
400
300
200
100
0
0
1098
2196
3294
4392
5490
6588
7686
8784
7686
8784
7686
8784
Hours
Wind production Eltra 2000 (2083 MWh pr MW)
2000
MWh/h
1500
1000
500
0
0
1098
2196
3294
4392
5490
6588
Hours
Wind production Eltra 2001 (1964 MWh pr MW)
2000
1500
MWh/h
Input:
• Data from total productions
of wind turbines in the TSO
Eltra area (West Denmark).
1000
500
0
0
1098
2196
3294
4392
Hours
5490
6588

24. At present 99% of Danish Wind Power is used in
Denmark to meet Domestic demands
By
Henrik Lund, Frede Hvelplund, Poul A. Østergaard,
Bernd Möller, Brian Vad Mathiesen
Department of Development and Planning, Aalborg University, Aalborg
Anders N. Andersen
EMD International, NOVI Research Park, Aalborg, Denmark
Poul Erik Morthorst, Kenneth Karlsson, Peter Meibom
and Marie Münster
Risø DTU, National Laboratory for Sustainable Energy, Roskilde, Denmark
Jesper Munksgaard
Pöyry, Copenhagen, Denmark
Peter Karnøe
Department of Organization, Copenhagen Business School,
Copenhagen,Denmark
Henrik Wenzel,
Institute of Chemical Engineering, University of Southern Denmark, Odense,
Denmark
Hans Henrik Lindboe
Ea Energy Analyses, Copenhagen, Denmark

25. A palette of solutions
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Flexible consumption
Electricity storage
CAES systems
Regulation of CHP plants
Electric heating
Heat pumps
Electric cars
Stopping of wind turbines
Production of hydrogen
Transmission abroad
V2G

26. Conclusions:
• Regulation of CHP and heat storage
(implemented in DK in 2004): Makes possible to
integrate 20% Wind Power (and 50% CHP)
• Adding large heat pumps and heat storage
capacity to existing CHP plants: Makes possible
to integrate 40% Wind Power (and 50% CHP)
• Electricity for transportation (integrate approx.
60% wind power)
• Important to involve the new flexible technologies
in the grid stabilisation task

27. Three targets in the
IDA Energy Year 2006
• To maintain security of energy supply
• To cut CO2 emissions by 50 % by year 2030
compared to the 1990 level
• To create employment and to quadruple the export in
the energy industry

28. During the IDA Energy Year
2006
• 40 meetings and seminars by
the IDA groups and societies
• More than 1600 participants
• Coordination by the IDA
Committee for the environment
• Overall energy system analysis
at Alborg University

29. Energi System Analyse Model
www.EnergyPLAN.eu

30. IDA Energiplan 2030

32. 100% Renewable Energy in
2050
Primær energiforsyning 100% VE i år 2050, PJ
1,000
900
800
Eksport
700
VE-el
600
Solvarme
500
Biomasse
Naturgas
400
Olie
300
Kul
200
100
0
Ref 2030
IDA 2030
IDA 2050 Bio IDA 2050 Vind
IDA 2050
Biomass potentials and consumtion in IDA 2030, PJ
400
Waste
350
300
Energy crops
Slurry fibre fraction
250
200
Slurry biogas
Wood
Straw
150
100
50
0
DEA potential
IDA 2030
Max potential

33. Conclusions
• 100 Percent Renewable is physically possible and
the first toward 2030 is feasible to the Danish
Society.
• The methodology of design is a very complex
process. The combination of a creative phase
involving many single experts and detailed system
analyses seems efficient and can be recommended.

34. CEESA Project 2011/2012
Transport:
Electric vehicles is best from an energy
efficient point of view. But gas and/or liquid
fuels is needed to transform to 100%.
Biomass:
.. is a limited resource and can not satisfy
all the transportation needs.
Consequence
… Electricity from Wind (and similar
resources) needs to be converted to gas and
liquied fuels in the long-term perspective…

35. Case: Skagen CHP plant

36. Skagen CHP plant
• CHP capacity: 13 MWe and 16 MWth
(Three 4.3 MWe Wärtsilä Natural Gas engines
• 250 MWh heat storage
• 37 MW peak load boilers
• 10 MW electric boiler
• Heat Pumps Investment under consideration
Operated together with a
Waste Incineration plant (heat only).

37. The main electricity markets
Primary reserves (frequency controlled production)
Secondary reserves (controlled by status of primary reserves)
Manuel regulating power (Tertiary reserves)
Intra day market
Day ahead spot market
15 min
1 hour
30 sec
The M.Sc. Programmes in Environm. Managem. & Sustainable Energy Planning and Management, 8. Semester, http://people.plan.aau.dk/~ana
> 12 hours

38. Skagen
• Day ahead spot market in Jan. 2005
• Regulating power market in approx. 2006
• Automatic primary reserve market
in Nov. 2009

39. Cost of entering primary
automatic reserves market
• Cost of making +- 1.4 MW available on the
engines: Only approx. 27.000 EUR.
• Investing in 10 MW electric boiler:
Approx 0.7 MEUR.

41. Conclusions
• Denmark can operate a system with 20% Wind and
50% CHP
• By adding heat pumps to the CHP units the
integration of wind power can be raised to approx.
40% with-out loosing efficiency (nor wind power)
• Including the CHP plants in the various electricity
markets is essential.
• Once the markets are open for CHP plants the cost
of entering them seams small.

42. More information
http://energy.plan.aau.dk/book.php
www.energyplanning.aau.dk
www.EnergyPLAN.eu
• http://www.emd.dk/desire/skagen
• http://www.emd.dk/el