The Civil Beat Poll June 2012 — 2nd Congressional Democrats Part 2
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![Civil Beat Poll, June 13-14, 2012 1
685 Likely Democratic Second Congressional District Primary Voters
Margin of Error +/- 3.7%
--If the primary for Congress were held today, would you vote for Attorney Bob Marx,
Honolulu City Council Member Tulsi Gabbard, former Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann,
or Chief Advocate for the Office of Hawaiian affairs Esther Kiaaina?
[Name order rotated in the survey. Names presented here in alphabetical order.]
Congress
Gabbard 33%
Hannemann 34%
Kiaaina 10%
Marx 10%
Unsure 12%
Total 100%
-- How recently did you decide to support your candidate for Congress?
WhenDecide
Past Two Weeks 25%
Past Month 23%
One Month or Longer 49%
Not sure 2%
Total 100%
--How strongly do you support your candidate for Congress? Would you say that you
will definitely vote for your candidate? Or would you say that you will probably vote for
your candidate, but could possibly switch to another candidate?
Strength
Definitely 64%
Could Switch 33%
Not sure 2%
Total 100%](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/thecivilbeatpolljune20122ndcongressionaldemocratspart2-120617234958-phpapp02/85/the-civil-beat-poll-june-2012-2nd-congressional-democrats-part-2-1-320.jpg)
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The Civil Beat Poll June 2012 — 2nd Congressional Democrats Part 2
- 1. Civil Beat Poll, June 13-14, 2012 1 685 Likely Democratic Second Congressional District Primary Voters Margin of Error +/- 3.7% --If the primary for Congress were held today, would you vote for Attorney Bob Marx, Honolulu City Council Member Tulsi Gabbard, former Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann, or Chief Advocate for the Office of Hawaiian affairs Esther Kiaaina? [Name order rotated in the survey. Names presented here in alphabetical order.] Congress Gabbard 33% Hannemann 34% Kiaaina 10% Marx 10% Unsure 12% Total 100% -- How recently did you decide to support your candidate for Congress? WhenDecide Past Two Weeks 25% Past Month 23% One Month or Longer 49% Not sure 2% Total 100% --How strongly do you support your candidate for Congress? Would you say that you will definitely vote for your candidate? Or would you say that you will probably vote for your candidate, but could possibly switch to another candidate? Strength Definitely 64% Could Switch 33% Not sure 2% Total 100%
- 2. Civil Beat Poll, June 13-14, 2012 2 685 Likely Democratic Second Congressional District Primary Voters Margin of Error +/- 3.7% --Do you generally have a positive or negative opinion of Mufi Hannemann? Hanneman Positive 48% Negative 36% Not Familiar Enough 16% Total 100% --Do you generally have a positive or negative opinion of Tulsi Gabbard? Gabbard Positive 48% Negative 16% Not Familiar Enough 36% Total 100%
- 3. Civil Beat Poll, June 13-14, 2012 3 685 Likely Democratic Second Congressional District Primary Voters Margin of Error +/- 3.7% --Which of the following issues do you think is most important for your new Congressperson to work on in Washington? Is it environmental protection and energy independence? Social issues such as abortion and same-sex marriage? Jobs and the economy? Long-term problems with debt, Social Security, and Medicare? Or military issues such as war and terrorism? Issue Enviro/Energ 19% Social Issues 6% Jobs/Economy 39% Debt/SS/Medi 29% Military 2% Other/Unsure 6% Total 100% --Do you generally support or oppose the Honolulu Rail project? Rail Support 48% Oppose 35% Unsure 17% Total 100%
- 4. Civil Beat Poll, June 13-14, 2012 4 685 Likely Democratic Second Congressional District Primary Voters Margin of Error +/- 3.7% --Does Tulsi Gabbardʼs position on the Rail project make you more or less likely to support her for Congress? RailGabbard More 16% Less 14% Not Important 37% Unsure 33% Total 100% --Does Mufi Hannemannʼs position on the Rail project make you more or less likely to support him for Congress? RailHanneman More 25% Less 28% Not Important 29% Unsure 17% Total 100%
- 5. Civil Beat Poll, June 13-14, 2012 5 685 Likely Democratic Second Congressional District Primary Voters Margin of Error +/- 3.7% --Tulsi Gabbardʼs father, Mike Gabbard, is a Hawaii State Senator from Oahu. Does the fact that Mike Gabbard is Tulsi Gabbardʼs father make you more or less likely to support Tulsi Gabbard for Congress? MikeGabbard More 9% Less 34% Not Important 49% Unsure 8% Total 100% --Mufi Hannemann has been involved in government and politics in various capacities since the 1970s. Does this make you more or less likely to support him for Congress? HannemanExperience More 38% Less 31% Not Important 22% Unsure 9% Total 100%
- 6. Civil Beat Poll, June 13-14, 2012 6 685 Likely Democratic Second Congressional District Primary Voters Margin of Error +/- 3.7% --Do you generally approve or disapprove of his job performance as president? Obama Approve strongly 59% Approve somewhat 19% Disapprove somewhat 4% Disapprove strongly 13% Unsure 4% Total 100% ObamaCondensed Approve 79% Disapprove 18% Unsure 4% Total 100%
- 7. Civil Beat Poll, June 13-14, 2012 7 685 Likely Democratic Second Congressional District Primary Voters Margin of Error +/- 3.7% DEMOGRAPHICS County Hawaii 28% Kauai 15% Maui 18% Oahu 39% Total 100% Gender Male 47% Female 53% Total 100% Age 18-29 6% 30-39 8% 40-49 12% 50-64 34% 65+ 40% Total 100% Politics Liberal/Progressive 30% Moderate 39% Conservative 16% Unsure 16% Total 100% Party_ID Democrat 68% Republican 4% Independent 23% Unsure 4% Total 100%
- 8. Civil Beat Poll, June 13-14, 2012 8 685 Likely Democratic Second Congressional District Primary Voters Margin of Error +/- 3.7%
- 9. Civil Beat Poll, June 13-14, 2012 9 685 Likely Democratic Second Congressional District Primary Voters Margin of Error +/- 3.7% Race_Ethnicity Caucasian 51% Japanese 18% Filipino 6% Hawaiian 11% Chinese 1% Hispanic 2% Other/Mixed 11% Total 100% Education No degree 3% High School Degree 32% College Degree 37% Graduate Degree 28% Total 100% Religion Catholic 23% Evangelical 7% Mormon 6% Other Christian 24% Buddhist 10% Shinto 1% Jewish 1% Other 5% None 24% Total 100% Military_Family Yes 15% No 85% Total 100% Household_Income Less than $50,000 38% $50,000-$100,000 38% $100,000 or More 24% Total 100%
- 10. Civil Beat Poll, June 13-14, 2012 10 685 Likely Democratic Second Congressional District Primary Voters Margin of Error +/- 3.7% CROSSTABS Strength * Congress Crosstabulation % within Congress Congress Gabbard Hannemann Kiaaina Marx Strength Definitely 65% 69% 61% 51% Could Switch 33% 28% 37% 49% Not sure 2% 3% 3% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% Congress * Strength Crosstabulation % within Strength Strength Could Definitely Switch Not sure Congress Gabbard 38% 37% 33% Hannemann 42% 33% 53% Kiaaina 11% 13% 13% Marx 9% 18% Total 100% 100% 100%
- 11. Civil Beat Poll, June 13-14, 2012 11 685 Likely Democratic Second Congressional District Primary Voters Margin of Error +/- 3.7% WhenDecide * Congress Crosstabulation % within Congress Congress Gabbard Hannemann Kiaaina Marx WhenDecide Past Two Weeks 29% 17% 35% 32% Past Month 28% 20% 23% 24% One Month or Longer 41% 62% 39% 43% Not sure 2% 1% 3% 1% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% Congress * WhenDecide Crosstabulation % within WhenDecide WhenDecide Past Two One Month Weeks Past Month or Longer Not sure Congress Gabbard 42% 44% 31% 45% Hannemann 26% 32% 49% 27% Kiaaina 16% 11% 9% 18% Marx 15% 12% 11% 9% Total 100% 100% 100% 100%
- 12. Civil Beat Poll, June 13-14, 2012 12 685 Likely Democratic Second Congressional District Primary Voters Margin of Error +/- 3.7% Hanneman * Congress Crosstabulation % within Congress Congress Gabbard Hannemann Kiaaina Marx Unsure Hanneman Positive 27% 92% 25% 18% 27% Negative 61% 3% 49% 56% 29% Not Familiar Enough 12% 4% 25% 25% 44% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Congress * Hanneman Crosstabulation % within Hanneman Hanneman Not Familiar Positive Negative Enough Congress Gabbard 18% 56% 25% Hannemann 65% 3% 9% Kiaaina 5% 14% 16% Marx 4% 16% 16% Unsure 7% 10% 33% Total 100% 100% 100% Gabbard * Congress Crosstabulation % within Congress Congress Gabbard Hannemann Kiaaina Marx Unsure Gabbard Positive 92% 27% 34% 24% 19% Negative 0% 22% 41% 24% 11% Not Familiar Enough 7% 51% 24% 53% 71% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Congress * Gabbard Crosstabulation % within Gabbard Gabbard Not Familiar Positive Negative Enough Congress Gabbard 63% 1% 6% Hannemann 20% 48% 47% Kiaaina 7% 27% 7% Marx 5% 16% 15% Unsure 5% 8% 24% Total 100% 100% 100%
- 13. Civil Beat Poll, June 13-14, 2012 13 685 Likely Democratic Second Congressional District Primary Voters Margin of Error +/- 3.7%
- 14. Civil Beat Poll, June 13-14, 2012 14 685 Likely Democratic Second Congressional District Primary Voters Margin of Error +/- 3.7% Congress * Issue Crosstabulation % within Issue Issue Social Enviro/Energ Issues Jobs/Economy Debt/SS/Medi Military Other/Unsure Congress Gabbard 24% 23% 39% 37% 38% 13% Hannemann 25% 38% 38% 36% 31% 21% Kiaaina 16% 20% 9% 6% 23% 5% Marx 20% 15% 6% 6% 29% Unsure 15% 5% 8% 15% 8% 32% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Issue * Congress Crosstabulation % within Congress Congress Gabbard Hannemann Kiaaina Marx Unsure Issue Enviro/Energ 14% 14% 30% 37% 22% Social Issues 4% 6% 11% 8% 2% Jobs/Economy 46% 44% 34% 23% 26% Debt/SS/Medi 32% 30% 17% 17% 35% Military 2% 2% 4% 1% Other/Unsure 2% 3% 3% 15% 14% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
- 15. Civil Beat Poll, June 13-14, 2012 15 685 Likely Democratic Second Congressional District Primary Voters Margin of Error +/- 3.7% Congress * Rail Crosstabulation % within Rail Rail Support Oppose Unsure Congress Gabbard 24% 48% 26% Hannemann 46% 21% 29% Kiaaina 9% 12% 11% Marx 13% 10% 7% Unsure 9% 10% 27% Total 100% 100% 100% Rail * Congress Crosstabulation % within Congress Congress Gabbard Hannemann Kiaaina Marx Unsure Rail Support 35% 64% 40% 57% 35% Oppose 51% 21% 41% 32% 27% Unsure 14% 15% 19% 11% 38% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
- 16. Civil Beat Poll, June 13-14, 2012 16 685 Likely Democratic Second Congressional District Primary Voters Margin of Error +/- 3.7% Congress * RailGabbard Crosstabulation % within RailGabbard RailGabbard Not More Less Important Unsure Congress Gabbard 57% 24% 35% 23% Hannemann 21% 40% 35% 36% Kiaaina 5% 20% 12% 7% Marx 14% 9% 13% 7% Unsure 3% 7% 6% 27% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% RailGabbard * Congress Crosstabulation % within Congress Congress Gabbard Hannemann Kiaaina Marx Unsure RailGabbard More 28% 10% 9% 21% 3% Less 10% 17% 27% 13% 8% Not Important 39% 38% 41% 45% 16% Unsure 23% 35% 23% 21% 72% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Congress * RailHanneman Crosstabulation % within RailHanneman RailHanneman Not More Less Important Unsure Congress Gabbard 16% 51% 37% 21% Hannemann 65% 13% 32% 25% Kiaaina 3% 16% 11% 8% Marx 9% 11% 12% 9% Unsure 7% 8% 7% 36% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% RailHanneman * Congress Crosstabulation % within Congress Congress Gabbard Hannemann Kiaaina Marx Unsure RailHanneman More 12% 48% 9% 21% 14% Less 44% 11% 44% 31% 19% Not Important 33% 28% 33% 33% 17% Unsure 11% 13% 14% 15% 50% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
- 17. Civil Beat Poll, June 13-14, 2012 17 685 Likely Democratic Second Congressional District Primary Voters Margin of Error +/- 3.7%
- 18. Civil Beat Poll, June 13-14, 2012 18 685 Likely Democratic Second Congressional District Primary Voters Margin of Error +/- 3.7% Congress * MikeGabbard Crosstabulation % within MikeGabbard MikeGabbard Not More Less Important Unsure Congress Gabbard 52% 24% 38% 15% Hannemann 32% 33% 36% 24% Kiaaina 5% 16% 8% 7% Marx 5% 19% 6% 7% Unsure 6% 8% 11% 46% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% MikeGabbard * Congress Crosstabulation % within Congress Congress Gabbard Hannemann Kiaaina Marx Unsure MikeGabbard More 14% 9% 4% 4% 5% Less 25% 34% 52% 61% 22% Not Important 57% 52% 38% 29% 44% Unsure 4% 6% 6% 6% 29% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Congress * HannemanExperience Crosstabulation % within HannemanExperience HannemanExperience Not More Less Important Unsure Congress Gabbard 9% 58% 41% 27% Hannemann 69% 6% 22% 14% Kiaaina 3% 17% 15% 3% Marx 9% 11% 13% 9% Unsure 10% 8% 9% 47% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% HannemanExperience * Congress Crosstabulation % within Congress Congress Gabbard Hannemann Kiaaina Marx Unsure HannemanExperience More 10% 76% 11% 33% 29% Less 54% 5% 51% 31% 20% Not Important 28% 15% 34% 28% 16% Unsure 8% 4% 3% 8% 35% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
- 19. Civil Beat Poll, June 13-14, 2012 19 685 Likely Democratic Second Congressional District Primary Voters Margin of Error +/- 3.7%
- 20. Civil Beat Poll, June 13-14, 2012 20 685 Likely Democratic Second Congressional District Primary Voters Margin of Error +/- 3.7% Congress * Obama Crosstabulation % within Obama Obama Approve Approve Disapprove Disapprove strongly somewhat somewhat strongly Unsure Congress Gabbard 30% 31% 25% 52% 38% Hannemann 36% 30% 47% 30% 17% Kiaaina 10% 15% 6% 5% 8% Marx 11% 14% 6% 9% Unsure 13% 11% 16% 4% 38% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Obama * Congress Crosstabulation % within Congress Congress Gabbard Hannemann Kiaaina Marx Unsure Obama Approve strongly 54% 64% 59% 61% 62% Approve somewhat 18% 17% 29% 25% 16% Disapprove somewhat 4% 6% 3% 3% 6% Disapprove strongly 21% 12% 7% 11% 5% Unsure 4% 2% 3% 11% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
- 21. Civil Beat Poll, June 13-14, 2012 21 685 Likely Democratic Second Congressional District Primary Voters Margin of Error +/- 3.7% Congress * ObamaCondensed Crosstabulation % within ObamaCondensed ObamaCondensed Approve Disapprove Unsure Congress Gabbard 30% 45% 38% Hannemann 35% 34% 17% Kiaaina 11% 5% 8% Marx 11% 8% Unsure 12% 7% 38% Total 100% 100% 100% ObamaCondensed * Congress Crosstabulation % within Congress Congress Gabbard Hannemann Kiaaina Marx Unsure ObamaCondensed Approve 72% 80% 88% 86% 79% Disapprove 24% 18% 9% 14% 11% Unsure 4% 2% 3% 11% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
- 22. Civil Beat Poll, June 13-14, 2012 22 685 Likely Democratic Second Congressional District Primary Voters Margin of Error +/- 3.7% Congress * County Crosstabulation % within County County Hawaii Kauai Maui Oahu Congress Gabbard 24% 34% 28% 41% Hannemann 33% 29% 50% 30% Kiaaina 8% 14% 9% 11% Marx 19% 8% 7% 6% Unsure 16% 16% 6% 12% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% Congress * Gender Crosstabulation % within Gender Gender Male Female Congress Gabbard 34% 31% Hannemann 37% 31% Kiaaina 8% 13% Marx 10% 11% Unsure 11% 13% Total 100% 100% Congress * Age Crosstabulation % within Age Age 18-29 30-39 40-49 50-64 65+ Congress Gabbard 12% 18% 38% 34% 35% Hannemann 17% 31% 35% 35% 36% Kiaaina 12% 31% 10% 9% 7% Marx 37% 14% 6% 9% 8% Unsure 22% 6% 10% 12% 13% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
- 23. Civil Beat Poll, June 13-14, 2012 23 685 Likely Democratic Second Congressional District Primary Voters Margin of Error +/- 3.7% Congress * Politics Crosstabulation % within Politics Politics Liberal/progressive Moderate Conservative Unsure Congress Gabbard 26% 40% 37% 24% Hannemann 26% 36% 41% 37% Kiaaina 12% 10% 10% 7% Marx 24% 6% 3% 6% Unsure 12% 8% 10% 26% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% Congress * Party_ID Crosstabulation % within Party_ID Party_ID Democrat Republican Independent Unsure Congress Gabbard 30% 38% 38% 43% Hannemann 35% 34% 34% 18% Kiaaina 9% 3% 14% 7% Marx 12% 17% 6% 7% Unsure 13% 7% 8% 25% Total 100% 100% 100% 100%
- 24. Civil Beat Poll, June 13-14, 2012 24 685 Likely Democratic Second Congressional District Primary Voters Margin of Error +/- 3.7% Congress * Race_Ethnicity Crosstabulation % within Race_Ethnicity Race_Ethnicity Caucasian Japanese Filipino Hawaiian Chinese Hispanic Other/Mixed Congress Gabbard 34% 27% 39% 30% 33% 18% 37% Hannemann 30% 46% 42% 31% 33% 55% 31% Kiaaina 9% 2% 8% 26% 9% 17% Marx 15% 9% 3% 1% 9% 7% Unsure 12% 15% 8% 12% 33% 9% 8% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Congress * Religion Crosstabulation % within Religion Religion Other Evangelic Christia Buddhis Catholic al Mormon n t Shinto Jewish Other None Congres Gabbard 39% 28% 36% 31% 23% 60% 22% 33% 33% s Hannemann 37% 24% 42% 42% 44% 40% 44% 20% 27% Kiaaina 6% 24% 14% 8% 11% 11% 13% 10% Marx 9% 17% 3% 10% 13% 11% 17% 11% Unsure 10% 7% 6% 9% 9% 0% 11% 17% 19% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
- 25. Civil Beat Poll, June 13-14, 2012 25 685 Likely Democratic Second Congressional District Primary Voters Margin of Error +/- 3.7% Congress * Military_Family Crosstabulation % within Military_Family Military_Family Yes No Congress Gabbard 36% 32% Hannemann 36% 35% Kiaaina 12% 10% Marx 9% 11% Unsure 7% 12% Total 100% 100% Congress * Household_Income Crosstabulation % within Household_Income Household_Income Less than $50,000- $100,000 $50,000 $100,000 or More Congress Gabbard 31% 36% 34% Hannemann 32% 39% 37% Kiaaina 10% 8% 12% Marx 15% 7% 8% Unsure 12% 9% 10% Total 100% 100% 100% Congress * Education Crosstabulation % within Education Education High School College Graduate No degree Degree Degree Degree Congress Gabbard 10% 30% 39% 30% Hannemann 52% 36% 27% 40% Kiaaina 5% 9% 13% 9% Marx 10% 10% 12% 10% Unsure 24% 15% 10% 10% Total 100% 100% 100% 100%
- 26. Civil Beat Poll, June 13-14, 2012 26 685 Likely Democratic Second Congressional District Primary Voters Margin of Error +/- 3.7% Congress * Senate Crosstabulation % within Senate Senate Hirono Case Unsure Congress Gabbard 26% 43% 24% Hannemann 40% 32% 18% Kiaaina 11% 9% 13% Marx 12% 10% 4% Unsure 11% 6% 43% Total 100% 100% 100% Senate * Congress Crosstabulation % within Congress Congress Gabbard Hannemann Kiaaina Marx Unsure Senate Hirono 38% 56% 49% 56% 40% Case 54% 38% 37% 40% 20% Unsure 8% 6% 14% 4% 40% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%