Presentation made by Andy Jarvis from the Decision and Policy Analysis Program of the International Centre for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT). Delivered at the GBIF Science Symposium 2009 in Copenhagen, Denmark in October.

1. Are protected areas enough to conserve terrestrial biodiversity in a 2050 climate? Andy Jarvis, Julian Ramirez, Luigi Guarino, Reymondin, Hector Tobón, Daniel Amariles

2. We’re still not doing enough to convince people of the seriousness

3. Contents The boring bit – data quality The fun bit – modelling Our current coverage of protected areas – pretty good! The bad news What to do? An example in agrobiodiversity The next steps The Peter Jones Scholarship for Agricultural Informatics

4. The Wallace Initiative framework: Assessment of impacts of climate change on species distributions to: Determine refugia Improve knowledge of risks of exceeding certain levels of change by means of determining extinction rates Map potential corridors for species Potential refugia, carbon, and design of REDD mechanisms Driving of protected area design in the 21st century Provide information to aid the development of adaptation plans

5. The Boring Bit – Data Quality

6. The GBIF database: status of the data The database holds 177,887,193 occurrences Plantae occurrences are 44,706,505 (25,13%) 33,340,000 (74.5%) have coordinates How many of them are correct, and reliable? How many new georreferences could we get? CURRENT STATUS OF THE Plantae RECORDS

7. The GBIF database: status of the data How to make the data reliable enough? Verify coordinates at different levels Are the records where they say they are? Are the records inside land areas (for terrestrial plant species only) Are all the records within the environmental niche of the taxon? Sea records: not verifiable Correct wrong references Add references to those that do not have Cross-check with curators and feedback the database

8. The GBIF database: status of the data How to make that possible? Java-based scripts Spatial datasets: environmental descriptors, administrative boundaries, high resolution land area mask Some processing power Enough storage And… most important: Java geeks!

9. Using a random sample of 950.000 occurrences with coordinates

10. Are the records where they say they are?: country-level verification Records with null country: 58.051  6,11% of total Records with incorrect country: 6.918  0,72% of total Total excluded by country 64.969  6,83% of total Records mostly located in country boundaries Inaccuracies in coordinates What on earth is this?

12. Not so bad at all… stats 44’706.505 plant records 33’340.008 (74,57%) with coordinates From those 88.5% are geographically correct at two levels 6.8% have null or incorrect country (incl. sea plant species) 4.7% are near the coasts but not in-land Summary of errors or misrepresented data

13. RESULTING DATABASE TOTAL EVALUATED RECORDS: 950.000 Good records: 840.449  88.47% of total

14. Next steps It now takes 27 minutes to verify 950,000 records, 177million would be 83 hours (3 ½ days) Identify terrestrial plant species and separate them from sea species Sea species not verifiable Use a georreferencing algorithm to: Correct wrong references Incorporate new location data to those with NULLlat,lon Interpret 2nd & 3rd-level administrative boundaries and use them too Implement environmental cross-checking (outliers)

15. So what do we face in terms of biodiversity distribution in 2050?

16. The current situation Covering 13.8% of the total global surface (3.8% international, 10% national)

17. Results: protected areas per region Global biodiversity currently well conserved Current extent of in situ conservation

18. The data: current and future climates Current climates from WorldClim 19 bioclimatic indices at 10 arc-minutes Future climates from downscaled GCM outputs 18 models at 10 arc-minutes spatial resolution For 2050s Under the A2a emission scenario 19 bioclimatic variables as for WorldClim Control run with the average climate of all GCMs

19. The approach Maximum entropy as a very accurate algorithm for niche modeling 10 or more points for each of the 33,004 taxa Current: two extreme migration scenarios Unlimited migration Null migration Measures of diversity and area loss Per region and globally Within Protected Areas Overall

20. Modeling approach Potential habitat expansion UNLIMITED MIGRATION NULL MIGRATION Aplying the maximum entropy algorithm Macoubea guianensis Aubl.: food for rural indigenous communities in the Amazon Data harvesting from GBIF Building the presence model Projecting on future climates UNLIMITED MIGRATION NULL MIGRATION

21. CURRENT Results: Current and future predicted species richness Important hotspots in Latin America, Europe, Australasia and Central Africa Displacement and loss of niches UNLIMITED MIGRATION NULL MIGRATION

22. Results: changes in species richness Null migration: losses everywhere Unlimited migration: mostly displacement

23. UNLIMITED MIGRATION Results: changes in species richness Null migration: losses everywhere Unlimited migration: mostly displacement NULL MIGRATION

24. Results: changes within regions Changes in species richness under both migration scenarios

25. Results: in situ conservation under the context of CC No matter if the best ‘adaptation’ scenario (unlimited dispersal) is chosen, negatives are expected in most regions

26. Results: in situ conservation under the context of CC Expected changes within protected areas (PAs) sometimes occur at a greater extent than non-protected areas NULL MIGRATION UNLIMITED MIGRATION Our protected areas not prepared to conserve biodiversity in 2050

27. CC on top of ongoing processes: habitat degradation Land use change monitoring model Occurrences from the GBIF database Protected areas MEASUREMENTS BETWEEN 2004-2009…

28. Caqueta, Jan 2004 – May 2009 Date

29. Threats to biodiversity from habitat degradation From 12,853,796 records (60,894 taxa) 315,590 records (2.5%) from 13,250 taxa (21.76%) can be found in the Amazon At least one population from 1,662 taxa (12.5%) is now extinct due to land use changes 3.9% taxa have more than 5% of their populations now extinct 1.3% have more than 10% and… 0.4% have more than 20% ESTIMATIONS FROM 2004 to mid-2009… in only five and a half years, some 2.5% of the global biodiversity is under threat at different levels… only taking into account LUC

30. In situ conclusions Protected areas function today, at least on paper Under a changed climate however, they do not effectively conserve biodiversity, even assuming unlimited migration In situ conservation needs to be oriented under the context of climate change Areas to be strengthened (more control) Areas to be expanded Areas to be re-located (if migration does occur) Enabling migration is critical: corridors of protected status help Redesigned functional landscapes also essential: Eco-efficient agriculture

31. Next steps… scientific rigor A far more detailed approach is required including Individual GCM results Other emission and policy scenarios All GBIF species with more taxonomic and georreferencing corrections Other time slices: 2020s, 2030s, 2040s… Validation metrics of Maxent models Intermediate migration scenarios Measure the number of extinct species for each region Dealing with bias in the data. Sorry France.

32. When each of the specimens die? How much does each specimen need to move to survive? Modelling migration

33. Pathways to adaptation in agrobiodiversity

34. The solution and the problem Wild relative species A. batizocoi - 12 germplasm accessions A. cardenasii - 17 germplasm accessions A. diogoi - 5 germplasm accessions Florunner, with no root-knot nematode resistance COAN, with population density of root-knot nematodes >90% less than in Florunner

35. Impact of Climate Change – Wild Peanuts

36. Massiveloss of agrobiodiversity FAO (1998) estimates that since the beginning of this century, about 75% of the genetic diversity of agricultural crops has been lost. In China, for example, nearly 10,000 wheat varieties were cultivated in 1949. By the 1970s, only about 1,000 varieties were still in use (FAO 1996). In Mexico, only 20% of the maize varieties reported in 1930 are now known in the country (FAO 1996). In Germany about half of the plant species in pastures have been lost (Isselstein 2003) In south Italy about 75% of crop varieties have disappeared (Hammer et al. 2003).

37. Gap Analysis: Strategiestofilltheholes in ourseedcollections

40. HERBARIUM GERMPLASM

41. NO GERMPLASM DEFICIENT GERMPLASM

42. POTENTIAL RICHNESS RARE ENVIRONMENTS

44. Wild Vigna collecting priorities Spatial analysis on current conserved materials *Gaps* in current collections Definition and prioritisation of collecting areas 8 100x100km cells to complete collections of 23 wild Vigna priority species

45. Richness in collecting zones at species level

46. Richness in collecting zones at genepool level

47. What the data says Our protected areas work today, not tomorrow Do we conserve 20% of the land mass, or do we need a new conservation paradigm? The solutions for agricultural biodiversity are actually more simple. But what about the useless species? ;-) We need to reconstruct our landscapes to function as protected areas -> Eco-efficient agriculture

48. The Final Word

49. The Oldies Simone Staiger Ana Milena Guerrero Glenn Graham Hyman Lilian Patricia Torres Enna Diaz Betancourt Anton Eitzineger Simon Cook Silvia Elena Castaño Jorge Cardona Juan Carlos Andrade Carlos Nagles Andy Jarvis

50. The Youth Robert Andrade Jhon Ocampo Julián Ramirez Natalia Uribe Louis Reymondin Nora Castañeda Hector Favio Tobón Elizabeth Barona Ovidio Rivera Daniel Jimenez Mike Salazar Vanesa Herrera

51. Victor Augusto Lizcano Carolina Argote D. Katherin Tehelen Angelica Ma. Henao Emmanuel Zapata Daniel Amariles Oriana Carolina Ovalle And the positively under-age The Peter Jones Scholarship for Agricultural Informatics

52. a.jarvis@cgiar.org