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Mand a toolkit facts on manda
1.
M&A TOOLKIT
Strategic Fit: Facts on M&A © 2007-2013 IESIES Development Ltd. All Ltd. Reserved © 2007-2013 Development Rights All Rights Reserved
2.
Only 20% of
M&A deals create value DEAL VALUE CREATION 1996-1999 Deal Created Value Deal Destroyed 17% Value 53% Value 30% Neutral Definition of value creation: Impact on share price compared to peers 1 year after deal closed Source: KPMG Global study, 1999, based on 700 deals © 2007-2013 IES Development Ltd. All Rights Reserved
3.
Making small deals
in related businesses improves Created value the odds Neutral/ destroyed 100% value 80% 60% 40% 20% 45 38 23 27 14 0% ALL Small Large Small Large DEALS Related Unrelated Source: McKinsey study, Valuation, 2007-2013 IES Development Ltd. All Rights Reserved © Copeland, Koller and Murrin
4.
Deals where the
company has a strong core business Created value are more likely to be successful Neutral/ destroyed value 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 39 23 0% 6 ALL DEALS Weak core Strong core Source: Valuation, Copeland, Koller andIES Development Ltd. All Rights Reserved © 2007-2013 Murrin
5.
Pure stock deals
did not even increase the value of the target and acquirer Net increase (as %) in market capitalisation of target AND acquirer © 2007-2013 IES Development Ltd. All Rights Reserved
6.
69% of pure
stock deals destroyed value for the acquirer’s shareholders Proportion of transactions with a Negative impact on the Acquirer’s share price © 2007-2013 IES Development Ltd. All Rights Reserved
7.
Average acquisition premiums
range from 20 to 30% Source: Datastream; Dealogic; McKinsey analysis © 2007-2013 IES Development Ltd. All Rights Reserved
8.
The chance of
value creation improves if you do deals frequently Risk adjusted return % 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1 '11-25 Number of deals done (over 10 years) Source: SDC, FactSet, UBS © 2007-2013 IES Development Ltd. All Rights Reserved
9.
Based on historical
results, some types of deal are more likely to create value for the acquirer IMPROVING THE ODDS •Do small deals •……frequently…... •.….for cash…….. •…..in related businesses…… •….when you have a strong core business © 2007-2013 IES Development Ltd. All Rights Reserved
10.
It is hard
to explain why M&A is so popular based on value creation If only 20-25% of deals create value for the acquirer………. …..why are there so many? ……especially big one-offs, in unrelated businesses, for shares, when the core business is weak? © 2007-2013 IES Development Ltd. All Rights Reserved
11.
© 2007-2013 IES
Development Ltd. All Rights Reserved
12.
Corporate M&A is
very likely to have a poor decision-making process COGNITIVE BIAS IN DECISION-MAKING Egos (agency problem) Over-optimism Poor decision- Group think making process “Sunk” cost (commitment) Confirmation bias © 2007-2013 IES Development Ltd. All Rights Reserved
13.
There are 2
almost guaranteed ways to make money from M&A All the academic studies show…….it is easy to make money from M&A 1) Sell 2) Advise © 2007-2013 IES Development Ltd. All Rights Reserved
14.
SUMMARY © 2007-2013
IES Development Ltd. All Rights Reserved
15.
M&A can go
wrong at any stage in the transaction process MOST COMMON M&A MISTAKES •Acquiring without a clear strategy •Illusory synergies •Overpaying How many mistakes did Quaker Oats make? •Due diligence failure •Loose Post-merger integration •Post-merger culture clash © 2007-2013 IES Development Ltd. All Rights Reserved
16.
There are three
themes that will run through this course • The importance of a clear strategy as the foundation for M&A success • Joined up thinking – guided by the “Value Hypothesis” from deal screening through valuation, due diligence to merger integration • Healthy scepticism about M&A © 2007-2013 IES Development Ltd. All Rights Reserved
17.
Some acquirers believe
they can manage the target better than existing management…….. © 2007-2013 IES Development Ltd. All Rights Reserved
18.
………………but are often
disappointed © 2007-2013 IES Development Ltd. All Rights Reserved