"The EU Legislators did not fully consider what impacts the banning of conventional cages would have on the future development of egg production and the resulting egg deficit." With this quote of Professor Hans Windhorst underlined in an interview with Terry Evans (ThePoultrySite, 2009) what he had predicted during his presentation at the ISAH meeting in St. Malo, France in 2004. Given the ongoing discussions on cage systems in othe parts of the word, Professor Windhorst expert opinion (although expressed in 2009) is still extremely interesting. He pointed out that the switch from conventional cages to enriched cages, floor management or free-range systems would inevitably lead to higher production costs. Economists at Wageningen University in the Netherlands have shown that production costs in enriched cages would increase by some eight per cent over those of conventional cages. In the German small colony system, the extra costs would be of the order of 10 per cent, while switching to the barn system in the Netherlands would result in costs rising by 21 per cent. "On the cost of switching away from conventional cages, an investment as high as €6.1 billion would be required. In Germany alone, some €612 million would be needed to meet the existing legal regulations by the end of 2009." He believes that it is not realistic to assume that this capital would be available under present financial and economic conditions, and he wonders how the EU would react when the member countries failed to fulfil the requirements of the Directive. He observed that it was obvious that legislators in the EU as well as at the country level in Germany did not fully consider what impacts the banning of conventional cages would have on the future development of egg production and the resulting egg deficit. Because German retailers would not stock eggs from the small colony system, large egg producers in that country realised that they would not be able to switch to floor management systems by the end of 2009. This would result in "Financial losses for production companies, higher consumer prices and increasing imports of shell eggs and egg products," Professor Windhorst concluded in his interview with ThePoultrySite in 2009.

1. The impacts of the new EU directive
for laying hen husbandry on the
production and trade patterns
for eggs and egg products
Hans-W. Windhorst
Institute of Spatial Analysis and Planning
In Areas of Intensive Agriculture (ISPA)
University of Vechta, Germany
Congress of the
International Society of Animal Hygiene
St. Malo, October 11th, 2004
ISPA

2. Agenda
• Introduction
• The setting: Regional patterns of egg production
and egg trade
• The new EU and German directives for laying hen
husbandry
• Impacts on egg production and egg trade
• Discussion: Further challenges for the egg and
egg products industries
ISPA

3. Introduction
• The EU directive 1999/74/EC will have far reaching
impacts on egg production and egg trade not only
in Europe but world-wide. Conventional cages will be
banned from 2012 on, enriched cages have to be
installed from 2003 on.
• The German directive, passed by the Bundesrat in
October 2001 is even more strict. It prohibits conventional cages from 2007 on and enriched cages from
2012 on. Even though the Bundesrat changed its
decision in November 2003, this decision has not
become effective as the Secretary of Consumer
Protection, Nutrition and Agriculture has not yet
signed the directive.
ISPA

4. The setting:
Regional Patterns of egg production
and egg trade
ISPA

5. The development of global egg production between
1990 und 2003, data in 1,000 t
Region
1990
2003
Change (%)
________________________________________________
Africa
1,550
2,082
+ 34.3
N. a. C. America 5,698
7,951
+ 39.5
S. America
2,233
2,951
+ 29.9
Asia
14,507
32,927
+ 127.0
Europe
11,125
9,886
- 11.1
Oceania
244
195
- 20.1
________________________________________________
World
35,208
55,992
+ 59.0
FAO
ISPA

6. The ten leading countries in egg production in
1990 and 2003, in % of the global production
1990
2003
________________________________________________
China
18.6
China
40.1
USA
11.3
USA
9.2
USSR
7.5
Japan
4.5
Japan
6.9
India
3.9
India
3.6
Russia
3.7
Brazil
3.5
Mexico
3.4
Mexico
2.9
Brazil
2.8
Germany
2.8
France
1.8
Ukraine
2.7
Germany
1.6
France
2.5
Un. Kingd.
1.3
_________________________________________________
Total
62.3
Total
72.2
FAO
ISPA

7. The development of egg production in selected EU
member states between 1990 und 2003, data in 1,000 t
Country
1990
2003
Change (%)
_________________________________________________
Portugal
79.6
108.5
+ 36.3
Belgium/Lux.
159.2
180.0
+ 13.1
France
886.8
1.000.0
+ 12.8
Ireland
31.1
34.0
+ 9.3
Spain
666.6
700.0
+ 5.0
Finland
76.4
53.0
- 30.6
Sweden
129.8
93.9
- 27.7
Germany
985.0
880.0
- 10.7
_________________________________________________
EU
5.234.8
5.368.9
+ 2.9
FAO
ISPA

8. The regional pattern of the global trade with
shell eggs, data in %
Region
Exports
Imports
__________________________________________
Africa
1.9
4.0
N. a. C. America
7.1
7.1
S. America
1.5
0.7
Asia
25.9
22.4
Europe
63.5
65.7
Oceania
0.1
0.1
__________________________________________
Welt
100.0
100.0
FAO
ISPA

9. The ten leading export and import countries for shell
eggs in 2002, data in 1,000 t
Country
Exports
Country
Imports
________________________________________________
Netherlands
264.6
Germany
257.8
Malaysia
115.2
China
82.0
Belgium
86.2
Italy
62.8
China
83.9
Netherlands
61.4
Germany
68.5
Un. Kind.
45.7
Spain
61.1
Canada
34.2
USA
60.9
Belgium
32.4
France
43.3
Singapore
26.5
Belarus
30.8
Switzerland
25.5
Iran
18.6
Austria
14.7
_________________________________________________
% of global exp. 82.8
% of global imp.
71.0
FAO
ISPA

10. The development of Germany´s shell egg imports
between 1992 and 2003, data in mill. pieces
Exporting
1992
2003
Change (%)
Country
___________________________________________
Netherlands 3,936
2,782
29.3
Spain
22
355
+ 1,513.6
France
80
211
+ 163.8
Belgium
280
209
25.4
___________________________________________
EU total
4,367
3,781
13.4
___________________________________________
Total
4,432
4,006
9.6
ZMP
ISPA

11. The development of Dutch shell egg exports between
1992 and 2003, data in mill. pieces
Importing
1992
2003
Change (%)
Country
___________________________________________
Germany
3,831
2,544
- 33.6
Belgium
785
171
- 78.2
Un. Kingd.
172
124
- 27.9
___________________________________________
EU total
5,216
2,986
- 42.8
___________________________________________
Non-EU
877
322
- 63.3
___________________________________________
Total
6,093
3,308
- 45.7
ZMP
ISPA

12. The new EU and German
directives for laying hen husbandry
ISPA

13. Directive 1999/74/EU
______________________________________________
Conventional cages:
• from January 1st 2003 on: minimum usable space
550 cm2 for each hen
• trough length: 10 cm per hen
• no longer permitted after December 31st, 2011
• must no longer be installed from January 1st, 2003
on
ISPA

14. Directive 1999/74/EU
______________________________________________
Enriched cages:
• from January 1st 2003 on: 750 cm2 per hen, minimum
usable space 600 cm2 for each hen
• no cage must be smaller than 2,000 cm2
• trough length: 12 cm per hen
• cages must have a nest, perches (15 cm resting
space per hen), and a sand-bath (scratching area)
• have to be installed from January 1st, 2003 on in new
poultry houses
ISPA

15. The new German directive for laying hen husbandry:
______________________________________________
• From January 1st, 2003 on no cages may be installed,
neither conventional nor enriched cages.
• From January 1st, 2007 on conventional cages and from
January 1st, 2012 on enriched cages will be prohibited
in Germany.
• From January 1st, 2003 on new facilities for laying hens
have to be at least 2 m high and have to have a basic
area of at least 2 m x 1.5 m.
• A single flock must not be larger than 6,000 hens.
ISPA

16. Impacts on egg production and egg trade
ISPA

17. Impacts of the EU directive (1999/74/EU):
___________________________________________________
• Egg production in the EU will decrease by about
11 billion pieces.
• The rate of self-sufficiency will decrease from 103 % in
1999 to 96 % in 2012 (the impacts of the German directive
are not included).
• The EU will become a net importing region for shell eggs.
• About 5 to 6 bill. € will be necessary until 2012 to fulfil
the regulations of the directive.
• About 12,300 jobs will be lost.
Wolffram et al. 2002
ISPA

18. Impacts of the new German directive:
______________________________________________
Structure of laying hen husbandry in Germany in 2002
______________________________________________
Number of laying hens:
40.8 mill.
In conventional cages:
83.9 %
Laying rate:
285 eggs
Free range:
8.6 %
Laying rate:
250 eggs
Floor management:
6.6 %
Laying rate:
260 eggs
Other systems:
0.8 %
Laying rate:
240 eggs
Egg production: 11.4 billion eggs
Imports for human consumption: 4.1 bill. eggs
ISPA

19. Scenario 1: EU directive (1999/74/EC) becomes effective
________________________________________________
Reduction of the laying hen flock from 40.8 mill.
to 35.7 mill. birds or by 13 %.
Reduction of egg production from 11.4 to 9.9 bill. eggs.
Decrease of the value of primary production by
200 mill. € and in associated industries by 100 mill. €.
Loss of 666 jobs.
Additional imports of 1.5 bill. eggs (total: 5.6 bill.).
ISPA

20. Scenario 2: Banning of conventional cages (2007)
________________________________________________
Reduction of the laying hen flock from 35.7 mill.
to 19.6 mill. birds or by 45.1 %.
Reduction of egg production from 9.9 to 5.0 bill. eggs.
Decrease of the value of primary production by another
500 mill. € and in associated industries by 400 mill. €.
Loss of another 3,200 jobs.
Additional imports of another 4.9 bill. eggs
(total: 10.5 bill.).
ISPA

21. Scenario 3: Enriched cages will be permitted in Germany
________________________________________________
Reduction of the laying hen flock from 35.7 mill.
to 28.9 mill. birds or by 19 %.
Reduction of egg production from 9.9 to 7.9. bill eggs.
Decrease of the value of primary production by
200 mill. € and in associated industries by 200 mill. €.
Loss of 1,700 jobs.
Additional imports of 1.9 bill. eggs (total: 7.5 bill.).
Necessary investments: 820 mill. €.
ISPA

22. An open future:
_____________________________________________
• If the Secretary of Consumer Protection, Nutrition
and Agriculture will not sign the altered directive
of November 2003, conventional cages will be
banned in 2007 and enriched in 2012.
• It is still an open question if the German Supreme
Court will open the court proceedings that have
to decide about compensation payments.
• A critical economic situation is expected for the
poultry equipment suppliers and especially for egg
producers in eastern Germany which installed new
cages after reunification in 1990.
ISPA

23. Discussion:
Further challenges for the
egg and egg products industries
ISPA

24. Further challenges:
_____________________________________________
• Globalisation of the markets for agricultural products
• Product safety and quality assurance will become
the leading driving forces in the future development
of the markets for animal products and lead to the
implementation of supply chains.
• Aspects of animal welfare and environmental
protection will gain in importance.
• Biotechnology and gene-technology will open new
ways in food design.
ISPA

25. Conclusion
ISPA

26. The problem of „cognitive dissonance“
and some open questions:
_________________________________________________
• A majority of consumers dislike conventional cages
in egg production, nevertheless more than 80 % of all
eggs consumed in the EU stem from such farms.
• Could it be that without legal regulations there would
still be conventional cages in future because of the
lower price of the eggs?
• From their dislike of cages consumers often conclude
that eggs from such systems are an unsafe product.
• Could it be that the industry has not been able so far
to transmit the message that the opposite is the case?
ISPA

27. Thank you for your attention!
ISPA