Siu vision thailand 2020 aug26 2011

เปิดขอบฟ้าใหม่รับมือเศรษฐกิจอาเซียน 2020 Vision Thailand 2020 Apirak Kosayodhin Asian Knowledge Institute 26 August 2011

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Current Situation ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

ASEAN Countries in 2015 Market Size 2.67 Trillions $ 700 Millions consumers

What awaits Thailand? Comparison to selected countries Countries with similar profile are up to ~10x wealthier than Thailand Potential to triple per-capita income? Sector mix may need to be shaped Domestic sectors may grow in importance France Italy South Korea 268 Thailand 194 194 Malaysia Nominal GDP Nominal GDP (USD bn) France Italy South Korea Thailand Malaysia % of GDP 2 France 2 Italy 3 South Korea 11 Thailand 10 Malaysia Agriculture Industry Service 0 100 50 Percentage of GDP France Italy South Korea Thailand Malaysia $ at PPP Note: Countries with similar population size and geographic size Source: EIU 2008 data

Thailand's major strengths are low cost of living and healthy environment for employment ,[object Object],[object Object],Low High High Gap in ranking between overall IMD index of Thailand with subfactor score Factor effect on ability of Thailand to develop sustainable competitive advantage and prosperity (+10 1 ) Healthy environment for employment 2 (24) Key strengths Thailand can leverage Mgmt practice (8) Low High IMD competitive ranking analysis of major strengths Low inflation and cost of living (23) Economic performance Government efficiency Business efficiency Infrastructure Attitudes and values (7) Appropriate consumption tax rates (22) Competitiveness - Strengths

Infrastructure and business efficiency identified as major weaknesses of Thailand 1. Difference between overall IMD ranking of Thailand (27) and sub factor scores. Use 10 to approximate 1 standard deviation difference. Source: IMD Competitiveness Report 2008 2. Weakness in low number of care providers Low High High Gap in ranking between overall IMD index of Thailand with subfactor score Factor effect on ability of Thailand to develop sustainable competitive advantage and prosperity (-10 1 ) Insufficient health quality 2 (-20) Insufficient education quality (-16) Low productivity & efficiency (-21) Highest priority gap to address Finance: bank efficiency (-4) Societal framework (-9) Basic infrastructure (-2) Tech – low penetration of internet users (-16) Low High Low GDP per capita (-21) Public finance (-2) Business legislation (-2) Low direct investment stocks abroad (-20) Economic performance Government efficiency Business efficiency Infrastructure Insufficient scientific infrastructure (-10) IMD competitive ranking analysis of major weaknesses Competitiveness - Weaknesses

Several mega-trends with high relevance on Thailand's future development People ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Environment ,[object Object],[object Object],Business ,[object Object],[object Object],1 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 5

SWOT analysis for Thailand shows several opportunities for action ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source: NESDB 2570 Vision Paper, IMD competitiveness, BCG Analysis Competitiveness analysis Mega-trend analysis Strategic focus "What Thailand should be known for" Strategic pillars "How Thailand should operate" Strategic foundation "What Thailand needs to have"

Potential 2020 Vision for Thailand Transformation from commodity supplier to branded, high value-added economy Strategic Focus " What Thailand should be known for" Strategic pillars "How Thailand should operate" Foundation "What Thailand needs to have" Open economy with high social mobility Culture of tech/ entrepreneur-ship& excellence Coordinated cluster economy system Knowledge & creativity based communities World-class work ethics & governance High value-added economy ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],1 2 3 4 High quality & wide access to social services Sufficiency & sustainable resource management High quality physical & technological infrastructure Prudent fiscal & monetary policy

Transformation towards sustainable, higher value economy National agenda is key to drive transformation Thailand Today Commodity products OEM focus Basic infrastructure Basic use of rich cultural heritage in commercialization of products and services Thailand 20 2 0 Higher value-added products Branded products Higher-quality physical and technological infrastructure Cultural tourism and heritage-based product commercialization ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

“ We must become the change we wish to see in the world.” Mahatma Gandhi

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Siu vision thailand 2020 aug26 2011

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