This document discusses mapping areas that are vulnerable to increased food insecurity due to climate change across the global tropics. It outlines three components of vulnerability: exposure, sensitivity, and coping capacity. Nine exposure thresholds related to changes in temperature and precipitation are identified. Sensitivity is defined by dependence on crop agriculture. Coping capacity is proxied by chronic food insecurity. The three components are combined into eight vulnerability domains. Key conclusions are that climate hotspots show reductions in growing periods, increases in temperature extremes, and changes in dryness/rainfall intensity. Food security hotspots have stagnant food production, more poverty, and undernourishment. Next steps proposed include refining the analysis with additional coping capacity indicators and reducing the number

1. Mapping hotspots of climate change and food insecurity across the global tropics Polly Ericksen, Philip Thornton, An Notenbaert, Laura Cramer, Mario Herrero 15 March 2011

2. CCAFS-to-CRP7 transition Three initial target regions (East Africa, West Africa, Indo-Gangetic Plain)  five by 2012 Possible regions: Southern Africa, West Asia-North Africa, Central Africa, Central America, upland South America, lowland South America, South Asia outside the IGP, South-East Asia, East Asia, Pacific, coastal zones, small island states, … Vulnerability mapping work + selection criteria + list of potential target regions as inputs to a process of selection Weighting exercise for each candidate region for different stakeholder groups: Contact points and global partners CRP7 management team CRP7 steering committee Final decision by November

4. Food security .....exists when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life. (World Food Summit 1996)

6. Allocation

7. Preference

8. Nutritional Value

9. Social Value

11. Distribution

13. Vulnerability analysis Exposure of populations to the impacts of climate change (hi, lo) Coping capacity of populations to address these impacts (hi, lo) Sensitivity of food systems to these impacts (hi, lo) x x Agricultural land areas from 35 ⁰S to 45 ⁰N (Ramankutty et al., 2008) plus LGP>60 days

14. Multi-model global averages of surface warming (relative to 1980-99) for the SRES scenarios

15. GCM consistency in regional precipitation projections for 2090-2099 (SRES A1B). IPCC, 2007

17. Downscale spatially, from 2° lat-long grids to a more useful resolution (e.g. 9-km grids)

18. Downscale temporally from long-term climatology to characteristic daily weather dataUse MarkSim as a GCM downscaler: difference interpolation + stochastic downscaling + weather typing  Generate exposure indicators based on daily data

19. Select climate model Select emissions scenario Select the centre year of the time slice and number of years of data wanted Select location (the ILRI cafeteria in Nairobi)

20. Exposure: several thresholds 1 Length of growing period (LGP) declines by >5% 2 Flip from LGP > 120 days in the 2000s to LGP < 120 in the 2050s 3 Flip from Reliable Crop Growing Days per year > 90 days in the 2000s to RCGDs < 90 in the 2050s 4 Flip from an average annual temp < 8°C in the 2000s to Tav > 8°C in the 2050s 5 Flip from an average annual maximum daily temp < 30°C in the 2000s to Tmax > 30°C in the 2050s 6 As above, but for the 150 days from the start of the primary growing season 7 Rainfall per rainday decreases by >10% to the 2050s 8 Rainfall per rainday increases by >10% to the 2050s 9 Areas in which current annual rainfall CV is >21%

21. Exposure 3 Areas that flip from > 90 Reliable Crop Growing Days (RCGD) per year in the 2000s to < 90 RCGD by the 2050s Cropping becomes very risky in areas with RCGD < 90 Reliable Crop Growth Days, calculated over n seasons per year as n RCGD = Σ season length j * (1 – failure rate j ) j=1

22. Exposure 6 Areas where maximum temperature during the primary growing season is currently < 30 °C but will flip to > 30 °C by the 2050s Yield of many crops is considerably reduced at higher temperatures Boote et al. (1998)

23. Exposure 9 Using current rainfall variability as a proxy for climate variability Areas with current annual rainfall CV > 21% (the modal CV for cropped areas in the tropics, excluding irrigated areas) Rainfall CV (%, x-axis), cropping extent (y-axis)

24. Multiple Exposures Mapping the number of these 9 potential climate threats that apply in each pixel For the positive temperature flip (from < 8 °C to > 8 °C), we reduced the number of threats by one Expanded crop suitability? Andes, parts of Central and highland South Asia, Southern China

25. Regional maps for E Africa, W Africa, IGPExposures 5, 6

26. Availability: crop production Also mapped beans, rice, wheat, sorghum, millet and cassava. You, L., S.Crespo, Z. Guo, J. Koo, W. Ojo, K. Sebastian, M.T. Tenorio, S. Wood, U. Wood-Sichra. Spatial Production Allocation Model (SPAM) 2000 Version 3 Release 2. http://MapSPAM.info.

27. Availability: Food Production Index Average 2003-2007. FAO Statistics Division, FAOSTAT.

28. Access: population with less than $2 per day http://geonetwork.csi.cgiar.org/geonetwork/srv/en/main.home

29. Access: staple food prices http://www.fao.org/giews/pricetool/)

30. Utilization: wasting prevalence World Development Indicators Database

31. Resource pressure: arable land per capita FAO STAT

33. Exposure The thresholds

34. Sensitivity Areas with more dependence on crop agriculture are assumed to be more sensitive to a change in climate.

35. Coping capacity We considered that chronic food insecurity could be a proxy for coping capacity, as inability to tackle chronic food insecurity indicates a number of institutional, economic and political problems.

36. Combination in “domains” 3 components * 2 classes  8 domains

37. Combination in “domains” 3 components * 2 classes  8 domains

38. LGP change > 5%

39. LGP flips to < 120 days

40. RCGD flip to < 90 days

41. Max. daily temp flip to > 30 deg C

42. Growing season Temp flip to >30 degC

43. Rain per rain day decrease > 10%

44. Rain per rain day increase > 10%

45. CV rainfall > 21%

46. Conclusions Climate hotspot indications: Cropping thresholds (growing period reduced) Temperature extremes (max and min) increasing Increased dryness, increased rain intensity? Food security hotspots: Stagnant PI Poverty Undernourished population

47. Conclusions Domains High exposure, high sensitivity, low capacity But also watch HHH because other capacity indicators HLL: increase in cropping? Variation in “low exposure” category Populations included vary

48. Next steps Try with other coping capacity indicators E.g. with better household level data Reduce the number of domains Ideas? Map Drivers of food insecurity not Outcomes Modeling scenarios of food security to 2050

49. International Livestock Research Institute Better lives through livestock Animal agriculture to reduce poverty, hunger and environmental degradation in developing countries ILRI www.ilri.org