Presented by Inger Andersen at the Copenhagen Sustainability Lecture "Greening development: Moving towards Rio+20 and beyond", 7 March 2011. Inger Andersen has overall responsibility for the World Bank’s work in agriculture, climate change, the environment, energy, transport, urban development, social development, and water supply and sanitation.

1. Greening Development:
Rio+ 20 and beyond

2. Things have changed since the early 1990s

3. An explosion in purchasing power–
particularly in developing countries
Population:
+1.2 billion
GDP per
capita:
+80%
GDP: +$5.5
trillion
(+130%)

4. Greater wealth has led to greater consumption…
still dominated by rich countries
30
25
Constant 2000 $ trillion
High income countries
20
Low & middle income
countries
15
10
5
0 2009
1992 2009

5. Substantial progress on social indicators, even
if much remains to be done
Poverty rate ($1.25/day)
45
40
35
But 918 million people still
-445 million
people
30
expected to live in poverty
25
-453 million
by 2015
20 people
15
10
5
0
1990 2005 2015

6. Much less progress on the environmental side
170
Reduced air pollution from particulates, but
massive increase in GHGs….
150
130
110
90
70
50
1993
1994
1992
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
PM10, country level CO2 emissions

7. Time to rethink our growth paradigm
Y=F (K, L, A, E)
with A=F(…E, Epol)

8. Trust in our ability to innovate and green at
low cost
EU
regulation
in the
power
EPA Dinoseb sector
ban EU
IPPC
Directive
EU Nitrates
Directive
EPA
phase-out
of leaded
gas
EPA SO2
Ozone reductions
Depleting (Phase 1)
Substances EU
packaging
phase-out
waste
Directive
(Harrington et al. 2000), Oosterhuis (2006)

9. Green growth – a new emphasis within
sustainable development

10. Green growth – a new emphasis within
sustainable development

11. Why might
this work now?

12. A rethinking of current growth paradigm
Fragility and volatility…

13. Doubts on its ability to deliver from a social and
humanitarian point of view
20
36
64 80

14. And even more so from an environmental point
of view
Rockström et al., Nature 2009

15. How to make
it happen?

16. Get the prices right….
350
300
250
200
billion $
150
necessary, non sufficient…
100
50
0
Consumption Cost of support
Subsidies to fossil to renewable
fuels energy

17. Technology transition…

18. Infrastructure transition— Today’s choices will
lock in lifestyles, energy use, and vulnerability

19. Infrastructure transition— Today’s choices will
lock in lifestyles, energy use, and vulnerability

20. Cities are growing fast….
Billions of people living in urban areas
4
3
2
Urban
1
0
1950 1970 1990 2010 2030

21. Natural resource management transition
 Loess plateau- before

22. Natural resource management transition
 Loess plateau- after

23. Human capital transition
Source: World Development Report 2010 based on UNESCO Institute for Statistics.

24. Social capital transition

25. A green growth knowledge platform to focus
our efforts around:
Innovation
Green
Economic &
Environmental Growth Efficiency
Risks
Platform
Jobs &
Poverty