Presented at CG Contact Point Meeting in Bonn, 9 June 2011.

1. CCAFS Selection of New Regions Bonn, June 2011

5. Existing regions Bangladesh, India, Nepal (Pakistan) Indo-Gangetic Plain Benin, Burkina Faso, Cape Verde, Cote d'Ivoire, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Togo Western Africa Burundi, Comoros, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya, Madagascar, Rwanda, Tanzania, Uganda Eastern Africa Sample countries (with “Medium” or “Low” HDI) Region

6. Candidate regions Fiji, Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands, Federated Micronesia Oceania Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao, Myanmar, Philippines, Thailand, Timor-Leste, Viet Nam South-Eastern Asia Afghanistan, Maldives,Pakistan, Sri Lanka South Asia (expansion) China, Mongolia Eastern Asia Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan Central Asia Bolivia, Guyana, Paraguay, Suriname South America El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua; Dominican Republic, Haiti Central America & Caribbean Botswana, Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, South Africa, Swaziland, Zambia, Zimbabwe Southern Africa Egypt, Morocco, Sudan; Syria, Yemen Northern Africa & Western Asia Angola, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Congo, DR Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Sao Tome & Principe Middle Africa Sample countries (with “Medium” or “Low” HDI) Region

7. Candidate region evaluation Criteria Regions Rate low / medium / high / unknown with a sentence of explanation Ask respondents to do all candidate region or a subset

8. Are there objective inputs to the process? - 5 Institutional support - 4 Potential for innovation and impact Vulnerability mapping report 3 Hotspots of food system vulnerability (1) Areas with high mitigation potential of the natural system (above ground biomass, soil C potential, wetlands and organic soils, degraded areas, grasslands, forest boundaries …) (2) Areas where existing or potential practices create high emissions - interventions could have high impact (livestock densities, areas with high fertilizer use, large areas of wet rice, …) 2 Potential for pro-poor mitigation Agro-ecological zones, human populations and rates of change, populations in poverty, agricultural potential, … 1 Complementarities Information that could be used Criterion

9. 3 Hotspots of vulnerability Exposure of populations to the impacts of climate change (hi, lo) Sensitivity of food systems to these impacts (hi, lo) Coping capacity of populations to address these impacts (hi, lo) x x Agricultural land areas from 35 ⁰S to 45 ⁰N (Ramankutty et al., 2008) plus LGP>60 days Proxy: % stunting (40%) Proxy: % cropland (mode 16%) Proxies: several climate change thresholds

10. Vulnerability domains for the LGP delta >5% threshold Domain Area (km2) Population LLL 4,508,660 40,275,900 LLH 13,120,500 102,357,000 LHL 1,412,400 89,935,000 LHH 3,321,920 219,658,000 HLL 13,248,100 126,387,000 HLH 22,374,000 155,368,000 HHL 5,172,800 369,162,000 HHH 5,078,220 238,567,000