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Is an 8.8 quake more deadly than a 7.3
quake?


Isabel Carreras-Baquer                                                             Pablo Navarrete

London School of Economics and Political Science   London School of Economics and Political Science
MSc in Regional and Urban Planning Studies             MSc in Regional and Urban Planning Studies
i.carreras-baquer@lse.ac.uk                                                      Sciences-Po Paris
                                                             MSC in Urban and Regional Strategies
                                                                           p.j.navarrete@lse.ac.uk
The paradox of the Richter scale




      CHILE 8.8                              HAITI 7.3
    (900 times stronger)
    (5th biggest in human history)



      Tsunami                                no Tsunami


   13.6 M/ 17M people affected               9M/ 9M people affecte


      723 Death                               230.000 Death
                                     (5th deathly earthquake in the human history)
Why was Chile quake less deadly
than Haiti quake?




http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/8543324.stm
Visualising Resilience
                1.Vulnerability   2.Reaction
                   factors          factors




             quake
                                               time
damage
1.Vulnerability
               factors




         quake
                                       time



                              Low
                              impact
damage




                              Medium
                              impact




                              High
                              Impact
1. Vulnerability
1.1 City morphology
  1.1.1 Density >> People and buildings
  1.1.2 Emergency places >> plazas, street width, cores
   1.1.3 Hazardousness of the location
1.2 Building codes
  1.2.1 Existance
   1.2.1 Application
       -Informal construction
       -Construction ethics of profit making
1.3 Information
  1.3.1 Individual Knowledge
  1.3.2 Channels of distribution
1.4 Gender?
1.1 City morphology
   Density: People and buildings




Port-au-Prince                     Concepcion
During: How you go out?         After: How you get in?
        But Different Urban Structure




Haiti                                                            Concepcion
1.1.3 Hazardousness of the location

                       Santiago
                                  Concepción




  (Elo et al., 1995)
1.2 Building codes

               Haiti: no building codes                                Chile: 7.5 (Nch433, 1996)




          “Earthquakes don’t kill people,” says John Mutter, a
          seismologist. “Bad buildings kill them.”
          http://www.infrastructurist.com/2010/01/20/earthquakes-dont-kill-peoplebad-buildings-do-more-on-haitis-building-codes/




Port-au-Prince                                                                                                              Concepción
1.2 Building codes




      Informal Construction      Formal Construction
      Application also matters
Formal Construction
Ethics of profit making
1.3 Information
   Individual Knowledge

   Distribution Channels
Individual Knowledge  Looking for safe places/ alerting hazards


_Tsunami Alert System Fails
_Lack of communication with many costal zones


“Policemen didn’t wait for the official order to
evacuate and sent everybody to the hills”
Channels of distribution  transforming local knowledge in a Tsunami alert


"¡Se sale el mar!" gritó con megáfono el cabo José Arévalo, quien fue la única
persona que avisó sobre el tsunami. El carabinero logró salvar a numerosas personas
que se encontraban en los pubs de la costanera y en la playa en Pichilemu.
(La Tercera 3 March 2010 )

“Éste les confirmó la magnitud del sismo y Martina corre a la plaza de Robinson
Crusoe para activar la alarma Tsunami, permitiendo salvar muchas vidas. Hoy
es una heroína reconocida por todos los sobrevivientes de la isla”. (LUN 3 March)
                                             pellehue
Carabineros de Iloca. El lugar era el principal balneario costero de la provincia de
Curicó, la dotación de carabineros del lugar orientados por su sentido común evacuó
a la mayoría de los habitantes y turistas de Iloca, dando
                                           aviso de
tsunami sin recibir aviso oficial del riesgo.
1.4 Gender?

“one woman for every three men survived” Aceh, Indonesia earthquake

Vulnerability factors>>
_Lack of information about evacuation warnings
_Culturally restricted mobility
_Growing responsibility within the family (after shock)

Evidence>>
Chile shows no correlation >> 246 M / 255 F
No data on Haiti


                                                           (World Bank 2006:50)
2. Reaction
                            factors




         quake
                 High        Medium    Low
                 speed       impact     impact
damage
2. Capacity to recover
2.1 Economic Factors
  2.1.1 Individual financial capacity
        savings (past) and income (present), Access to credits (future)
  2.1.2 Public financial capacity
        National, Regional , local
  2.1.3 Insurance coverage
        National, Local, ¿International?
  2.1.4 Location of productive areas
2.2 Institutional Capacity
      International, Vertical, Horizontal
2.3 Social factors
  2.3.1 Opportunistic vs collaborative behaviour >> Game theory
  2.3.2 Activation of Social Networks/ rural urban linkages
2.1.1 Individual financial capacity

        + Savings (past)

       + Income (present)
       + Access to credits (future)

        Individual financial capacity
CHILE: 14,900 US dollar                          HAITI: 1,300 US dollar


                                                         + Savings (past)
   + Savings (past)
                                                         + Income (present)
   + Income (present)
                                                         + Access to credits (future)
   + Access to credits (future)


financial capacity of the rich                  >       financial capacity of the poor


  *Difference between individuals in Rich and Poor Nation
  *Difference between Rich and Poor individuals within a Nation
2.1.2 Public financial capacity

   + Savings (past)

   + National GDP (present)
   + Access to International credits (future)

   National financial capacity

   *Differences at a National, Regional, Local scale
2.1.3 Insurance coverage
                                      CHILE        HAITI

          -Transport Infrastructure   Medium       Low
Public
          -Public Buildings            Low         Low



          -Business                   Medium-Low    Low
Private
          -Houses= Formal, Informal   Medium-Low    Low
2.1.3 Insurance coverage
                           USA                     MEX




                                 (Comerio, 1997)
2.1.4 Location of productive areas
“Quake crushes Haiti’s economic revival Nation was moving toward stability, growth
when disaster struck” http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/34866872




    infrastructure damage
    textile manufacturing
Damage


30% GDP   30% GDP

                    30%
2.2 Institutional Capacity
             -International help
             -National: Vertical, Horizontal,

                                  State




                                                  International
vertical
horizontal




                       city                city
horizontal     vertical




Santiago
                               State




Concepción




             International
horizontal       vertical




Port-au-Prince
                                   State




Jacmel




                 International
Opportunistic behaviour
2.3 Social factors   “Atemorizados, los ciudadanos de ese barrio y de sus alrededores se andan por las
                     calles con palos, hierros, bates de béisbol, cuchillos e
                     incluso escopetas para proteger sus casas”
                                                                              La Tercera, 2 March 2010

                       “Piñera critica errores del gobierno de Bachelet
                       tras el terremoto”
                                                                           La Tercera, 3th March 2010




                                                       0              1


                                                      0              1
                                        0
                                        1

                                                      1              2
Collaborative behaviour

 _Sharing Food
 _Sharing Shelter
 _Rescuing tasks
 _Social order
2.3.2 Activation of Social Networks
1. Vulnerability   2. Reaction
                        factors           factors




                 Quake 8.8

CHILE




                 Quake 7.3

HAITI
        damage
Remark Section 1:
Clear correlation between poverty and vulnerability/reaction

Vulnerability Factors >>

                    poor nations than rich nations
More vulnarable     the poor than the rich within a nation
                    the poor than the rich within a city
                    the women than the men within a household


Reaction Factors >>

                    poor nations than rich nations
 Less capacity to   poor than the rich within a nation
 recover            poor than the rich within a city
                    men than women?
3. Chain effects


“No necesitamos ayuda internacional”
(Bachelet, February 2010)


 “...Traditional   measures   of geological or hydro meteorological intensity,
 casualty rates, even the numbers of people made homeless, are       not the
 appropriate indicators of a need for outside aid.”   (Comerio, Mary 1997:324)
Quake
Telecom
                        Victims
    Electricity
     Water
                                 Police
                              Hospitals
Transport                     Firemen
                  Quake
Network
                              Housing
                              damage
    Retail         Industry
                  Business
15

    Telecom
                        Victims
    Electricity
     Water
                                 Police
                              Hospitals
Transport                     Firemen
                  Quake
Network
                              Housing
                              damage
    Retail         Industry
                  Business
Tsunami




    Telecom
                         Victims
    Electricity
     Water
                                  Police
                               Hospitals
Transport                      Firemen
                  Quake
Network
                               Housing
                               damage
    Retail          Industry
                   Business
Tsunami
                                                    Lack

            No Water                                reaction
                                                    capacity


  Victims          Telecom                                      Victims
                                        Victims
                   Electricity
                       Water
                                                 Police
Isolation                                     Hospitals
               Transport                      Firemen
                                 Quake                               Trapped
               Network
                                              Housing
                                              damage
 No Water          Retail          Industry
                                  Business                   lack of shelter


             No Food
                                           No productivity
                         Uncertainty
Tsunami
                                                    Lack

            No Water                                reaction
                                                    capacity


  Victims          Telecom                                      Victims
                                        Victims
                   Electricity
                       Water
                                                 Police
Isolation                                     Hospitals
               Transport                      Firemen
                                 Quake                               Trapped
               Network
                                              Housing
                                              damage
 No Water          Retail          Industry
                                  Business                   lack of shelter


             No Food
                                           No productivity
                         Uncertainty
Diseases
                           Water
                          Telecom
                          Electricity

                                                 Tsunami
                                                                      Lack

                        No Water                                      reaction                  Victims +
                                                                      capacity                  Putrefaction

                Victims            Telecom                                       Victims
                                                           Victims
                                   Electricity
                                        Water
                                                                  Police                            Displacement
            Isolation                                          Hospitals
Lack                                                           Firemen                               Urb-Rural
                              Transport
reaction                                         Quake                                Trapped       Migration
                              Network
capacity                                                       Housing
                                                               damage
                No Water            Retail         Industry                                         No S /
                                                  Business                    lack of shelter       Increase D

    Local                  No Food                                                                   Informal
                                                                                                     economy
    Inflation                                               No productivity
                                         Uncertainty

                                                                                             Reactivation

                                                                                 Industry
                                                                 Fall Stock      destroyed
                                                Social
                                                                 Exchange
                                                disorder
Diseases
                           Water
                          Telecom
                          Electricity

                                                 Tsunami
                                                                      Lack

                        No Water                                      reaction                  Victims +
                                                                      capacity                  Putrefaction

                Victims            Telecom                                       Victims
                                                           Victims
                                   Electricity
                                        Water
                                                                  Police                            Displacement
            Isolation                                          Hospitals
Lack                                                           Firemen                               Urb-Rural
                              Transport
reaction                                         Quake                                Trapped       Migration
                              Network
capacity                                                       Housing
                                                               damage
                No Water            Retail         Industry                                         No S /
                                                  Business                    lack of shelter       Increase D

    Local                  No Food                                                                   Informal
                                                                                                     economy
    Inflation                                               No productivity
                                         Uncertainty

                                                                                             Reactivation

                                                                                 Industry
                                                                 Fall Stock      destroyed
                                                Social
                                                                 Exchange
                                                disorder
Diseases
                           Water
                          Telecom
                          Electricity

                                                  Tsunami
                                                                                                                      Victims +
                                                                         Lack
                                                                         reaction                                     disappeared
                        No Water                                                                    Victims +
                                                                         capacity                   Putrefaction

                Victims             Telecom                                          Victims
                                                             Victims
                                    Electricity
                                                                                                                             Rural
                                        Water
                                                                    Police                               Displacement        Overpopulation
            Isolation                                            Hospitals
Lack                                                             Firemen                                  Urb-Rural
                                Transport
reaction                                          Quake                                  Trapped         Migration
                                Network
capacity                                                         Housing
                                                                 damage                                                           Increase
                No Water            Retail          Industry                                                                      Prices
                                                                                                         No S /
                                                   Business                     lack of shelter          Increase D

    Local                  No Food                                                                         Informal
                                                                                                           economy
    Inflation                                                 No productivity
                                          Uncertainty

                                                                                                 Reactivation        Firms

                                                                                     Industry                        disappeared

                                                                   Fall Stock        destroyed          Firms
                                                Social
                                                                   Exchange
                                                disorder                                                Relocation
                                                                                                        Nat. internat.
                    Political
                                                  Lack                                    FDI outflow
                    disorder
                                                  reaction             Political

                                                  capacity             Instability
Diseases
                           Water
                          Telecom
                          Electricity

                                                  Tsunami
                                                                                                                      Victims +
                                                                         Lack
                                                                         reaction                                     disappeared
                        No Water                                                                    Victims +
                                                                         capacity                   Putrefaction

                Victims             Telecom                                          Victims
                                                             Victims
                                    Electricity
                                                                                                                             Rural
                                        Water
                                                                    Police                               Displacement        Overpopulation
            Isolation                                            Hospitals
Lack                                                             Firemen                                  Urb-Rural
                                Transport
reaction                                          Quake                                  Trapped         Migration
                                Network
capacity                                                         Housing
                                                                 damage                                                           Increase
                No Water            Retail          Industry                                                                      Prices
                                                                                                         No S /
                                                   Business                     lack of shelter          Increase D

    Local                  No Food                                                                         Informal
                                                                                                           economy
    Inflation                                                 No productivity
                                          Uncertainty

                                                                                                 Reactivation        Firms

                                                                                     Industry                        disappeared

                                                                   Fall Stock        destroyed          Firms
                                                Social
                                                                   Exchange
                                                disorder                                                Relocation
                                                                                                        Nat. internat.
                    Political
                                                  Lack                                    FDI outflow
                    disorder
                                                  reaction             Political

                                                  capacity             Instability
Diseases
                           Water
                          Telecom
                          Electricity

                                                  Tsunami
                                                                                                                      Victims +
                                                                         Lack
                                                                         reaction                                     disappeared
                        No Water                                                                    Victims +
                                                                         capacity                   Putrefaction

                Victims             Telecom                                          Victims
                                                             Victims
                                    Electricity
                                                                                                                               Rural
                                        Water
                                                                    Police                               Displacement          Overpopulation
            Isolation                                            Hospitals
Lack                                                             Firemen                                  Urb-Rural
                                Transport
reaction                                          Quake                                  Trapped         Migration
                                Network
capacity                                                         Housing
                                                                 damage                                                           Increase
                No Water            Retail          Industry                                                                      Prices
                                                                                                         No S /
                                                   Business                     lack of shelter          Increase D

    Local                  No Food                                                                         Informal
                                                                                                           economy
    Inflation                                                 No productivity
                                          Uncertainty

                                                                                                 Reactivation        Firms

                                                                                     Industry                        disappeared

                                                                   Fall Stock        destroyed          Firms
                                                Social
                                                                   Exchange
                                                disorder                                                Relocation
                                                                                                        Nat. internat.
                    Political                                                                                                Reg+Nat
                                                  Lack                                    FDI outflow
                    disorder                                                                                                 Unemployment
                                                  reaction             Political

                                                  capacity             Instability
Diseases
                           Water
                          Telecom
                          Electricity

                                                  Tsunami
                                                                                                                      Victims +
                                                                         Lack
                                                                         reaction                                     disappeared
                        No Water                                                                    Victims +
                                                                         capacity                   Putrefaction

                Victims             Telecom                                          Victims
                                                             Victims
                                    Electricity
                                                                                                                               Rural
                                        Water
                                                                    Police                               Displacement          Overpopulation
            Isolation                                            Hospitals
Lack                                                             Firemen                                  Urb-Rural
                                Transport
reaction                                          Quake                                  Trapped         Migration
                                Network
capacity                                                         Housing
                                                                 damage                                                           Increase
                No Water            Retail          Industry                                                                      Prices
                                                                                                         No S /
                                                   Business                     lack of shelter          Increase D

    Local                  No Food                                                                         Informal
                                                                                                           economy
    Inflation                                                 No productivity
                                          Uncertainty

                                                                                                 Reactivation        Firms

                                                                                     Industry                        disappeared

                                                                   Fall Stock        destroyed          Firms
                                                Social
                                                                   Exchange
                                                disorder                                                Relocation
                                                                                                        Nat. internat.
                    Political                                                                                                Reg+Nat
                                                  Lack                                    FDI outflow
                    disorder                                                                                                 Unemployment
                                                  reaction             Political

                                                  capacity             Instability
Diseases
                           Water
                          Telecom
                          Electricity

                                                  Tsunami
                                                                                                                      Victims +
                                                                         Lack
                                                                         reaction                                     disappeared
                        No Water                                                                    Victims +
                                                                         capacity                   Putrefaction

                Victims             Telecom                                          Victims
                                                             Victims
                                    Electricity
                                                                                                                               Rural
                                        Water
                                                                    Police                               Displacement          Overpopulation
            Isolation                                            Hospitals
Lack                                                             Firemen                                  Urb-Rural
                                Transport
reaction                                          Quake                                  Trapped         Migration
                                Network
capacity                                                         Housing
                                                                 damage                                                           Increase
                No Water            Retail          Industry                                                                      Prices
                                                                                                         No S /
                                                   Business                     lack of shelter          Increase D

    Local                  No Food                                                                         Informal
                                                                                                           economy
    Inflation                                                 No productivity
                                          Uncertainty

                                                                                                 Reactivation        Firms

                                                                                     Industry                        disappeared

                                                                   Fall Stock        destroyed          Firms                                        Informal
                                                Social
                                                                   Exchange                                                                          eco
                                                disorder                                                Relocation
                                                                                                        Nat. internat.
                    Political                                                                                                Reg+Nat
                                                  Lack                                    FDI outflow
                    disorder                                                                                                 Unemployment
                                                  reaction             Political                                                                Fall GDP
                                                  capacity             Instability
Diseases
                           Water
                          Telecom
                          Electricity

                                                  Tsunami
                                                                                                                      Victims +
                                                                         Lack
                                                                         reaction                                     disappeared
                        No Water                                                                    Victims +
                                                                         capacity                   Putrefaction

                Victims             Telecom                                          Victims
                                                             Victims
                                    Electricity
                                                                                                                               Rural
                                        Water
                                                                    Police                               Displacement          Overpopulation
            Isolation                                            Hospitals
Lack                                                             Firemen                                  Urb-Rural
                                Transport
reaction                                          Quake                                  Trapped         Migration
                                Network
capacity                                                         Housing
                                                                 damage                                                           Increase
                No Water            Retail          Industry                                                                      Prices
                                                                                                         No S /
                                                   Business                     lack of shelter          Increase D

    Local                  No Food                                                                         Informal
                                                                                                           economy
    Inflation                                                 No productivity
                                          Uncertainty

                                                                                                 Reactivation        Firms

                                                                                     Industry                        disappeared

                                                                   Fall Stock        destroyed          Firms                                        Informal
                                                Social
                                                                   Exchange                                                                          eco
                                                disorder                                                Relocation
                                                                                                        Nat. internat.
                    Political                                                                                                Reg+Nat
                                                  Lack                                    FDI outflow
                    disorder                                                                                                 Unemployment
                                                  reaction             Political                                                                Fall GDP
                                                  capacity             Instability
Diseases
                           Water
                          Telecom
                          Electricity

                                                  Tsunami
                                                                                                                      Victims +
                                                                         Lack
                                                                         reaction                                     disappeared
                        No Water                                                                    Victims +
                                                                         capacity                   Putrefaction

                Victims             Telecom                                          Victims
                                                             Victims
                                    Electricity
                                                                                                                               Rural
                                        Water
                                                                    Police                               Displacement          Overpopulation
            Isolation                                            Hospitals
Lack                                                             Firemen                                  Urb-Rural
                                Transport
reaction                                          Quake                                  Trapped         Migration
                                Network
capacity                                                         Housing
                                                                 damage                                                           Increase
                No Water            Retail          Industry                                                                      Prices
                                                                                                         No S /
                                                   Business                     lack of shelter          Increase D

    Local                  No Food                                                                         Informal
                                                                                                           economy
    Inflation                                                 No productivity
                                          Uncertainty

                                                                                                 Reactivation        Firms

                                                                                     Industry                        disappeared

                                                                   Fall Stock        destroyed          Firms                                        Informal
                                                Social
                                                                   Exchange                                                                          eco
                                                disorder                                                Relocation
                                                                                                        Nat. internat.
                    Political                                                                                                Reg+Nat
                                                  Lack                                    FDI outflow
                    disorder                                                                                                 Unemployment
                                                  reaction             Political                                                                Fall GDP
                                                  capacity             Instability
Diseases
                           Water
                          Telecom
                          Electricity

                                                  Tsunami
                                                                                                                      Victims +
                                                                         Lack
                                                                         reaction                                     disappeared
                        No Water                                                                    Victims +
                                                                         capacity                   Putrefaction

                Victims             Telecom                                          Victims
                                                             Victims
                                    Electricity
                                                                                                                               Rural
                                        Water
                                                                    Police                               Displacement          Overpopulation
            Isolation                                            Hospitals
Lack                                                             Firemen                                  Urb-Rural
                                Transport
reaction                                          Quake                                  Trapped         Migration
                                Network
capacity                                                         Housing
                                                                 damage                                                           Increase
                No Water            Retail          Industry                                                                      Prices
                                                                                                         No S /
                                                   Business                     lack of shelter          Increase D

    Local                  No Food                                                                         Informal
                                                                                                           economy
    Inflation                                                 No productivity
                                          Uncertainty

                                                                                                 Reactivation        Firms

                                                                                     Industry                        disappeared

                                                                   Fall Stock        destroyed          Firms                                        Informal
                                                Social
                                                                   Exchange                                                                          eco
                                                disorder                                                Relocation
                                                                                                        Nat. internat.
                    Political                                                                                                Reg+Nat
                                                  Lack                                    FDI outflow
                    disorder                                                                                                 Unemployment
                                                  reaction             Political                                                                Fall GDP
                                                  capacity             Instability
1.Victims and housing issues

                                                                  Rural-urban
                                                                  links
                                  Victims
                     Trapped                                                     Rural
                                                              Displacement       Overpopulation
                                                 Trapped      Urb-Rural
             Quake               Tsunami                      Migration
                      Housing
                                                                                              Affordabili
                                                                                              loss
                      damage                                                    Increase
                                Housing                       No S /            Prices
                                damage      lack of shelter   Increase D


                                                                      Temporary            Informal
                                                                      shelter              shelter


                                                                                           Formal
                                                                                           shelter
1.Victims and housing issues
1. First housing damage resulting in first victims and potential victims trapped

                                                                                     Rural-urban
                                                                                     links
                                                     Victims
                                        Trapped                                                     Rural
                                                                                 Displacement       Overpopulation
                                                                    Trapped      Urb-Rural
                                Quake               Tsunami                      Migration
                                         Housing
                                                                                                                 Affordabili
                                                                                                                 loss
                                         damage                                                    Increase
                                                   Housing                       No S /            Prices
                                                   damage      lack of shelter   Increase D


                                                                                         Temporary            Informal
                                                                                         shelter              shelter


                                                                                                              Formal
                                                                                                              shelter
1.Victims and housing issues
1. First housing damage resulting in first victims and potential victims trapped

2. Tsunami                                                                           Rural-urban
                                                                                     links
                                                     Victims
                                        Trapped                                                     Rural
                                                                                 Displacement       Overpopulation
                                                                    Trapped      Urb-Rural
                                Quake               Tsunami                      Migration
                                         Housing
                                                                                                                 Affordabili
                                                                                                                 loss
                                         damage                                                    Increase
                                                   Housing                       No S /            Prices
                                                   damage      lack of shelter   Increase D


                                                                                         Temporary            Informal
                                                                                         shelter              shelter


                                                                                                              Formal
                                                                                                              shelter
1.Victims and housing issues
1. First housing damage resulting in first victims and potential victims trapped
2. Tsunami
                                                                                     Rural-urban
3. Second housing damage                                                             links
                                                     Victims
                                        Trapped
   and more victims                                                                                 Rural
                                                                                 Displacement       Overpopulation
                                                                    Trapped      Urb-Rural
                                Quake               Tsunami                      Migration
                                         Housing
                                                                                                                 Affordabili
                                                                                                                 loss
                                         damage                                                    Increase
                                                   Housing                       No S /            Prices
                                                   damage      lack of shelter   Increase D


                                                                                         Temporary            Informal
                                                                                         shelter              shelter


                                                                                                              Formal
                                                                                                              shelter
1.Victims and housing issues
1. First housing damage resulting in first victims and potential victims trapped
2. Tsunami
                                                                                           Rural-urban
3. Second housing damage                                                                   links
                                                           Victims
                                              Trapped
   and more victims                                                                                       Rural
                                                                                       Displacement       Overpopulation
4. Lack of shelter:   (WBIEG, 2006)
                                      Quake
                                                                          Trapped      Urb-Rural
                                                          Tsunami                      Migration
                                                                                                                       Affordabili
   need of temporary-informal                  Housing
                                                                                                                       loss
                                               damage                                                    Increase
                                                         Housing                       No S /            Prices
   shelter. It may become permanent                      damage      lack of shelter   Increase D

    in the long run (Chile, Haiti?)                                                            Temporary            Informal
                                                                                               shelter              shelter


                                                                                                                    Formal
                                                                                                                    shelter
1.Victims and housing issues
1. First housing damage resulting in first victims and potential victims trapped
2. Tsunami
                                                                                           Rural-urban
3. Second housing damage                                                                   links
                                                           Victims
                                              Trapped
   and more victims                                                                                       Rural
                                                                                       Displacement       Overpopulation
4. Lack of shelter:   (WBIEG, 2006)
                                      Quake
                                                                          Trapped      Urb-Rural
                                                          Tsunami                      Migration
                                                                                                                       Affordabili
   need of temporary-informal                  Housing
                                                                                                                       loss
                                               damage                                                    Increase
                                                         Housing                       No S /            Prices
   shelter. It may become permanent                      damage      lack of shelter   Increase D

    in the long run (Chile, Haiti?)                                                            Temporary            Informal
                                                                                               shelter              shelter


                                                                                                                    Formal
                                                                                                                    shelter
1.Victims and housing issues
1. First housing damage resulting in first victims and potential victims trapped
2. Tsunami
                                                                                           Rural-urban
3. Second housing damage                                                                   links
                                                           Victims
                                              Trapped
   and more victims                                                                                       Rural
                                                                                       Displacement       Overpopulation
4. Lack of shelter:   (WBIEG, 2006)
                                      Quake
                                                                          Trapped      Urb-Rural
                                                          Tsunami                      Migration
                                                                                                                       Affordabili
   need of temporary-informal                  Housing
                                                                                                                       loss
                                               damage                                                    Increase
                                                         Housing                       No S /            Prices
   shelter. It may become permanent                      damage      lack of shelter   Increase D

    in the long run (Chile, Haiti?)                                                            Temporary            Informal
                                                                                               shelter              shelter


                                                                                                                    Formal
                                                                                                                    shelter
1.Victims and housing issues
1. First housing damage resulting in first victims and potential victims trapped
2. Tsunami
                                                                                           Rural-urban
3. Second housing damage                                                                   links
                                                           Victims
                                              Trapped
   and more victims                                                                                       Rural
                                                                                       Displacement       Overpopulation
4. Lack of shelter:   (WBIEG, 2006)
                                      Quake
                                                                          Trapped      Urban-Rural
                                                          Tsunami                      Migration
                                                                                                                       Affordabili
   need of temporary-informal                  Housing
                                                                                                                       loss
                                               damage                                                    Increase
                                                         Housing                       No S /            Prices
   shelter. It may become permanent                      damage      lack of shelter   Increase D

    in the long run (Chile, Haiti?)                                                            Temporary            Informal
                                                                                               shelter              shelter
5. Displacement,    urban-rural migration
                                                                                                                    Formal

   and activation of rural-urban linkages (in an opposite way)                                                      shelter
1.Victims and housing issues
1. First housing damage resulting in first victims and potential victims trapped
2. Tsunami
                                                                                           Rural-urban
3. Second housing damage                                                                   links
                                                           Victims
                                              Trapped
   and more victims                                                                                       Rural
                                                                                       Displacement       Overpopulation
4. Lack of shelter:   (WBIEG, 2006)
                                      Quake
                                                                          Trapped      Urban-Rural
                                                          Tsunami                      Migration
                                                                                                                       Affordabili
   need of temporary-informal                  Housing
                                                                                                                       loss
                                               damage                                                    Increase
                                                         Housing                       No S /            Prices
   shelter. It may become permanent                      damage      lack of shelter   Increase D

    in the long run (Chile, Haiti?)                                                            Temporary            Informal
                                                                                               shelter              shelter
5. Displacement,    urban-rural migration
                                                                                                                    Formal

   and activation of rural-urban linkages (in an opposite way)                                                      shelter



6. Rural overpopulation threatening the communities sustainability (environment
   degradation and increase in vulnerability)
Terremotos en Haiti Chile. Comparación de impactos
Terremotos en Haiti Chile. Comparación de impactos
1.Victims and housing issues
1. First housing damage resulting in first victims and potential victims trapped
2. Tsunami
                                                                                           Rural-urban
3. Second housing damage                                                                   links
                                                           Victims
                                              Trapped
   and more victims                                                                                       Rural
                                                                                       Displacement       Overpopulation
4. Lack of shelter:   (WBIEG, 2006)
                                      Quake
                                                                          Trapped      Urban-Rural
                                                          Tsunami                      Migration
                                                                                                                       Affordabili
   need of temporary-informal                  Housing
                                                                                                                       loss
                                               damage                                                    Increase
                                                         Housing                       No S /            Prices
   shelter. It may become permanent                      damage      lack of shelter   Increase D

    in the long run (Chile, Haiti?)                                                            Temporary            Informal
                                                                                               shelter              shelter
5. Displacement,    urban-rural migration
                                                                                                                    Formal

   and activation of rural-urban linkages (in an opposite way)                                                      shelter


6. Rural overpopulation threatening the communities sustainability (environment
   degradation and increase in vulnerability)
5. An increase in demand and a lack of supply leads to an increase of prices (Gilbert, 2001)
1.Victims and housing issues
1. First housing damage resulting in first victims and potential victims trapped
2. Tsunami
                                                                                           Rural-urban
3. Second housing damage                                                                   links
                                                           Victims
                                              Trapped
   and more victims                                                                                       Rural
                                                                                       Displacement       Overpopulation
4. Lack of shelter:   (WBIEG, 2006)
                                      Quake
                                                                          Trapped      Urban-Rural
                                                          Tsunami                      Migration
                                                                                                                       Affordabili
   need of temporary-informal                  Housing
                                                                                                                       loss
                                               damage                                                    Increase
                                                         Housing                       No S /            Prices
   shelter. It may become permanent                      damage      lack of shelter   Increase D

    in the long run (Chile, Haiti?)                                                            Temporary            Informal
                                                                                               shelter              shelter
5. Displacement,    urban-rural migration
                                                                                                                    Formal

   and activation of rural-urban linkages (in an opposite way)                                                      shelter


6. Rural overpopulation threatening the communities sutainability (environment
   degradation and increase in vulnerability)
5. An increase in demand and a lack of supply leads to an increase of prices and exclusion
   of the poor from the housing market (Gilbert, 2001)
2.Economic impacts


                                                                                 Rural
                                                                                 Overpopulation

            Quake



             Industry
            Business                 Tsunami                                    Victims

                                                             Informal
                                                             economy
                    No productivity


                                                   Reactivation        Firms

                                       Industry                        disappeared
                                                                                                       Informal
                        Fall Stock     destroyed          Firms                                        economy
                        Exchange
                                                          Relocation
                                                          Nat. internat.
                                                                               Reg+Nat
                                            FDI outflow
                                                                               Unemployment
                                                                                                  Fall GDP
2.Economic impacts
1. Immediate destruction of the industries and             the business sectors



                                                                                                   Rural
                                                                                                   Overpopulation

                             Quake



                               Industry
                              Business                 Tsunami                                    Victims

                                                                               Informal
                                                                               economy
                                      No productivity


                                                                     Reactivation        Firms

                                                         Industry                        disappeared
                                                                                                                         Informal
                                          Fall Stock     destroyed          Firms                                        economy
                                          Exchange
                                                                            Relocation
                                                                            Nat. internat.
                                                                                                 Reg+Nat
                                                              FDI outflow
                                                                                                 Unemployment
                                                                                                                    Fall GDP
2.Economic impacts
1. Immediate destruction of the industries and              the business sectors
2. Productivity ceases


                                                                                                  Rural
                                                                                                  Overpopulation

                            Quake



                              Industry
                             Business                 Tsunami                                    Victims

                                                                              Informal
                                                                              economy
                                     No productivity


                                                                    Reactivation        Firms

                                                        Industry                        disappeared
                                                                                                                        Informal
                                         Fall Stock     destroyed          Firms                                        economy
                                         Exchange
                                                                           Relocation
                                                                           Nat. internat.
                                                                                                Reg+Nat
                                                             FDI outflow
                                                                                                Unemployment
                                                                                                                   Fall GDP
2.Economic impacts
1. Immediate destruction of the industries and                 the business sectors
2. Productivity ceases
3. Impacts on the Stock Exchange (Chile: cement industries up)
4. First signs reactivation                                                                          Rural
                                                                                                     Overpopulation

                               Quake



                                 Industry
                                Business                 Tsunami                                    Victims

                                                                                 Informal
                                                                                 economy
                                        No productivity


                                                                       Reactivation        Firms

                                                           Industry                        disappeared
                                                                                                                           Informal
                                            Fall Stock     destroyed          Firms                                        economy
                                            Exchange
                                                                              Relocation
                                                                              Nat. internat.
                                                                                                   Reg+Nat
                                                                FDI outflow
                                                                                                   Unemployment
                                                                                                                      Fall GDP
2.Economic impacts
1. Immediate destruction of the industries and                     the business sectors
2. Productivity ceases
3. Impacts on the Stock Exchange (Chile: cement industries up)
4. First signs reactivation                                                                              Rural
                                                                                                         Overpopulation
5. Risk of investment
                                 Quake
    outflow due to affected SE
6. Firms relocate                    Industry
                                    Business                 Tsunami                                    Victims
   nationally and internationally                                                    Informal
                                                                                     economy
                                            No productivity


                                                                           Reactivation        Firms

                                                               Industry                        disappeared
                                                                                                                               Informal
                                                Fall Stock     destroyed          Firms                                        economy
                                                Exchange
                                                                                  Relocation
                                                                                  Nat. internat.
                                                                                                       Reg+Nat
                                                                    FDI outflow
                                                                                                       Unemployment
                                                                                                                          Fall GDP
2.Economic impacts
1. Immediate destruction of the industries and                     the business sectors
2. Productivity ceases
3. Impacts on the Stock Exchange (Chile: cement industries up)
4. First signs reactivation                                                                              Rural
                                                                                                         Overpopulation
5. Risk of investment
                                 Quake
    outflow due to affected SE
6. Firms relocate                    Industry
                                    Business                 Tsunami                                    Victims
   nationally and internationally                                                    Informal
                                                                                     economy
                                            No productivity
7. Growth of regional and national
    unemployment in the long run                                           Reactivation        Firms

                                                               Industry                        disappeared
                                                                                                                               Informal
                                                Fall Stock     destroyed          Firms                                        economy
                                                Exchange
                                                                                  Relocation
                                                                                  Nat. internat.
                                                                                                       Reg+Nat
                                                                    FDI outflow
                                                                                                       Unemployment
                                                                                                                          Fall GDP
2.Economic impacts
1. Immediate destruction of the industries and                      the business sectors
2. Productivity ceases
3. Impacts on the Stock Exchange (Chile: cement industries up)
4. First signs reactivation                                                                               Rural
                                                                                                          Overpopulation
5. Risk of investment
                                     Quake
    outflow due to affected SE
6. Firms relocate                     Industry
                                     Business                 Tsunami                                    Victims
    nationally and internationally                                                    Informal
                                                                                      economy
                                             No productivity
7. Growth of regional and national
    unemployment in the long run                                            Reactivation        Firms

                                                                Industry                        disappeared
8. Overall fall in the GDP                       Fall Stock     destroyed          Firms
                                                                                                                                Informal
                                                                                                                                economy
                                                 Exchange
                                                                                   Relocation
“The long-term outlook for Haiti’s
                                                                                   Nat. internat.
                                                                                                        Reg+Nat
economy won’t be known until the crisis subsides”                    FDI outflow
                                                                                                        Unemployment
                                                                                                                           Fall GDP
(msnbc news, 2010)
2.Economic impacts
1. Immediate destruction of the industries and                     the business sectors
2. Productivity ceases
3. Impacts on the Stock Exchange (Chile: cement industries up)
4. First signs reactivation                                                                              Rural
                                                                                                         Overpopulation
5. Risk of investment
                                   Quake
    outflow due to affected SE
6. Firms relocate                    Industry
                                    Business                 Tsunami                                    Victims
   nationally and internationally                                                    Informal
                                                                                     economy
                                            No productivity
7. Growth of regional and national
    unemployment in the long run                                           Reactivation        Firms

                                                               Industry                        disappeared
8. Overall fall in the GDP                      Fall Stock     destroyed          Firms
                                                                                                                               Informal
                                                                                                                               economy
                                                Exchange
                                                                                  Relocation
9. Of course, all relates to the
                                                                                  Nat. internat.
                                                                                                       Reg+Nat
   enormous losses of population                                    FDI outflow
                                                                                                       Unemployment
                                                                                                                          Fall GDP
2.Economic impacts
1. Immediate destruction of the industries and                     the business sectors
2. Productivity ceases
3. Impacts on the Stock Exchange (Chile: cement industries up)
4. First signs reactivation                                                                              Rural
                                                                                                         Overpopulation
5. Risk of investment
                                   Quake
    outflow due to affected SE
6. Firms relocate                    Industry
                                    Business                 Tsunami                                    Victims
   nationally and internationally                                                    Informal
                                                                                     economy
                                            No productivity
7. Growth of regional and national
    unemployment in the long run                                           Reactivation        Firms

                                                               Industry                        disappeared
8. Overall fall in the GDP                      Fall Stock     destroyed          Firms
                                                                                                                               Informal
                                                                                                                               economy
                                                Exchange
                                                                                  Relocation
9. Of course, all relates to the
                                                                                  Nat. internat.
                                                                                                       Reg+Nat
   enormous losses of population                                    FDI outflow
                                                                                                       Unemployment
                                                                                                                          Fall GDP
2.Economic impacts informal economy


                                                                                      Rural
                                                                                      Overpopulation

                Quake



                  Industry
                 Business                 Tsunami                                    Victims

                                                                  Informal
                                                                  economy
                         No productivity


                                                        Reactivation        Firms

                                            Industry                        disappeared
                                                                                                            Informal
                             Fall Stock     destroyed          Firms                                        economy
                             Exchange
                                                               Relocation
                                                               Nat. internat.
                                                                                    Reg+Nat
                                                 FDI outflow
                                                                                    Unemployment
                                                                                                       Fall GDP
Economic impacts in the short term
_ Informal sector gains and becomes literally the only way to survive



                                                                                                  Rural
                                                                                                  Overpopulation

                             Quake



                              Industry
                             Business                 Tsunami                                    Victims

                                                                              Informal
                                                                              economy
                                     No productivity


                                                                    Reactivation        Firms

                                                        Industry                        disappeared
                                                                                                                        Informal
                                         Fall Stock     destroyed          Firms                                        economy
                                         Exchange
                                                                           Relocation
                                                                           Nat. internat.
                                                                                                Reg+Nat
                                                             FDI outflow
                                                                                                Unemployment
                                                                                                                   Fall GDP
2.Economic impacts
_ Informal sector gains and becomes literally the only way to survive
_Providing informal livelihoods opportunities
essential to recover (WB, 2006):
         Economic recovery                                                                              Rural
                                                                                                        Overpopulation
         but also….
                                   Quake

         psychological
                                    Industry
                                   Business                 Tsunami                                    Victims

                                                                                    Informal
                                                                                    economy
                                           No productivity


                                                                          Reactivation        Firms

                                                              Industry                        disappeared
                                                                                                                              Informal
                                               Fall Stock     destroyed          Firms                                        economy
                                               Exchange
                                                                                 Relocation
                                                                                 Nat. internat.
                                                                                                      Reg+Nat
                                                                   FDI outflow
                                                                                                      Unemployment
                                                                                                                         Fall GDP
2.Economic impacts
_ Informal sector gains and becomes literally the only way to survive
_Providing informal livelihoods opportunities
essential to recovery (WB, 2006):
                    Economic recovery                                                                                                        Rural
                                                                                                                                             Overpopulation
                    but also….
                                                                 Quake

                    psychological
                                                                    Industry
_In the case of Haiti                                              Business                      Tsunami                                    Victims

the most prominent sectors are:                                                                                          Informal
                                                                                                                         economy
                                                                              No productivity
_Mobile barbers
                                                                                                               Reactivation        Firms
_Improvised phone booths
                                                                                                   Industry                        disappeared
                                                                                                                                                                   Informal
_Hot dog stalls and furniture                                                       Fall Stock     destroyed          Firms                                        economy
                                                                                    Exchange
                                                                                                                      Relocation
                                                                                                                      Nat. internat.
                                                                                                                                           Reg+Nat
                                                                                                        FDI outflow
Let’s visit Mr Jules in Rua Grande…                                                                                                        Unemployment
                                                                                                                                                              Fall GDP
http://transformationallogistics.wordpress.com/2010/01/27/haiti-and-the-informal-response/
Hoping for costumers in Haiti (providing a livelihood )
“Mr. Jules, 48, home gone, several relatives dead, goes to the Grand Rue with Mr Frade
to move from grieving to doing. “You never know, maybe someone will come and buy
something”. He smiled, then added “Unfortunately, though, they never do””
                                        http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2010/02/07/world/grand-rue-pano.html
Terremotos en Haiti Chile. Comparación de impactos
Terremotos en Haiti Chile. Comparación de impactos
Terremotos en Haiti Chile. Comparación de impactos
Terremotos en Haiti Chile. Comparación de impactos
Terremotos en Haiti Chile. Comparación de impactos
Terremotos en Haiti Chile. Comparación de impactos
Terremotos en Haiti Chile. Comparación de impactos
Terremotos en Haiti Chile. Comparación de impactos
Terremotos en Haiti Chile. Comparación de impactos
Terremotos en Haiti Chile. Comparación de impactos
Terremotos en Haiti Chile. Comparación de impactos
Terremotos en Haiti Chile. Comparación de impactos
Terremotos en Haiti Chile. Comparación de impactos
Terremotos en Haiti Chile. Comparación de impactos
Terremotos en Haiti Chile. Comparación de impactos
Terremotos en Haiti Chile. Comparación de impactos
Terremotos en Haiti Chile. Comparación de impactos
Terremotos en Haiti Chile. Comparación de impactos
Terremotos en Haiti Chile. Comparación de impactos
Terremotos en Haiti Chile. Comparación de impactos
Terremotos en Haiti Chile. Comparación de impactos
Terremotos en Haiti Chile. Comparación de impactos
Terremotos en Haiti Chile. Comparación de impactos
Terremotos en Haiti Chile. Comparación de impactos
Terremotos en Haiti Chile. Comparación de impactos
Terremotos en Haiti Chile. Comparación de impactos
Terremotos en Haiti Chile. Comparación de impactos
Terremotos en Haiti Chile. Comparación de impactos
Terremotos en Haiti Chile. Comparación de impactos
Terremotos en Haiti Chile. Comparación de impactos
Terremotos en Haiti Chile. Comparación de impactos
Terremotos en Haiti Chile. Comparación de impactos
Terremotos en Haiti Chile. Comparación de impactos
Terremotos en Haiti Chile. Comparación de impactos

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Terremotos en Haiti Chile. Comparación de impactos

  • 1. GY341 Is an 8.8 quake more deadly than a 7.3 quake? Isabel Carreras-Baquer Pablo Navarrete London School of Economics and Political Science London School of Economics and Political Science MSc in Regional and Urban Planning Studies MSc in Regional and Urban Planning Studies i.carreras-baquer@lse.ac.uk Sciences-Po Paris MSC in Urban and Regional Strategies p.j.navarrete@lse.ac.uk
  • 2. The paradox of the Richter scale CHILE 8.8 HAITI 7.3 (900 times stronger) (5th biggest in human history) Tsunami no Tsunami 13.6 M/ 17M people affected 9M/ 9M people affecte 723 Death 230.000 Death (5th deathly earthquake in the human history)
  • 3. Why was Chile quake less deadly than Haiti quake? http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/8543324.stm
  • 4. Visualising Resilience 1.Vulnerability 2.Reaction factors factors quake time damage
  • 5. 1.Vulnerability factors quake time Low impact damage Medium impact High Impact
  • 6. 1. Vulnerability 1.1 City morphology 1.1.1 Density >> People and buildings 1.1.2 Emergency places >> plazas, street width, cores 1.1.3 Hazardousness of the location 1.2 Building codes 1.2.1 Existance 1.2.1 Application -Informal construction -Construction ethics of profit making 1.3 Information 1.3.1 Individual Knowledge 1.3.2 Channels of distribution 1.4 Gender?
  • 7. 1.1 City morphology Density: People and buildings Port-au-Prince Concepcion
  • 8. During: How you go out? After: How you get in? But Different Urban Structure Haiti Concepcion
  • 9. 1.1.3 Hazardousness of the location Santiago Concepción (Elo et al., 1995)
  • 10. 1.2 Building codes Haiti: no building codes Chile: 7.5 (Nch433, 1996) “Earthquakes don’t kill people,” says John Mutter, a seismologist. “Bad buildings kill them.” http://www.infrastructurist.com/2010/01/20/earthquakes-dont-kill-peoplebad-buildings-do-more-on-haitis-building-codes/ Port-au-Prince Concepción
  • 11. 1.2 Building codes Informal Construction Formal Construction Application also matters
  • 13. 1.3 Information Individual Knowledge Distribution Channels
  • 14. Individual Knowledge  Looking for safe places/ alerting hazards _Tsunami Alert System Fails _Lack of communication with many costal zones “Policemen didn’t wait for the official order to evacuate and sent everybody to the hills”
  • 15. Channels of distribution  transforming local knowledge in a Tsunami alert "¡Se sale el mar!" gritó con megáfono el cabo José Arévalo, quien fue la única persona que avisó sobre el tsunami. El carabinero logró salvar a numerosas personas que se encontraban en los pubs de la costanera y en la playa en Pichilemu. (La Tercera 3 March 2010 ) “Éste les confirmó la magnitud del sismo y Martina corre a la plaza de Robinson Crusoe para activar la alarma Tsunami, permitiendo salvar muchas vidas. Hoy es una heroína reconocida por todos los sobrevivientes de la isla”. (LUN 3 March) pellehue Carabineros de Iloca. El lugar era el principal balneario costero de la provincia de Curicó, la dotación de carabineros del lugar orientados por su sentido común evacuó a la mayoría de los habitantes y turistas de Iloca, dando aviso de tsunami sin recibir aviso oficial del riesgo.
  • 16. 1.4 Gender? “one woman for every three men survived” Aceh, Indonesia earthquake Vulnerability factors>> _Lack of information about evacuation warnings _Culturally restricted mobility _Growing responsibility within the family (after shock) Evidence>> Chile shows no correlation >> 246 M / 255 F No data on Haiti (World Bank 2006:50)
  • 17. 2. Reaction factors quake High Medium Low speed impact impact damage
  • 18. 2. Capacity to recover 2.1 Economic Factors 2.1.1 Individual financial capacity savings (past) and income (present), Access to credits (future) 2.1.2 Public financial capacity National, Regional , local 2.1.3 Insurance coverage National, Local, ¿International? 2.1.4 Location of productive areas 2.2 Institutional Capacity International, Vertical, Horizontal 2.3 Social factors 2.3.1 Opportunistic vs collaborative behaviour >> Game theory 2.3.2 Activation of Social Networks/ rural urban linkages
  • 19. 2.1.1 Individual financial capacity + Savings (past) + Income (present) + Access to credits (future) Individual financial capacity
  • 20. CHILE: 14,900 US dollar HAITI: 1,300 US dollar + Savings (past) + Savings (past) + Income (present) + Income (present) + Access to credits (future) + Access to credits (future) financial capacity of the rich > financial capacity of the poor *Difference between individuals in Rich and Poor Nation *Difference between Rich and Poor individuals within a Nation
  • 21. 2.1.2 Public financial capacity + Savings (past) + National GDP (present) + Access to International credits (future) National financial capacity *Differences at a National, Regional, Local scale
  • 22. 2.1.3 Insurance coverage CHILE HAITI -Transport Infrastructure Medium Low Public -Public Buildings Low Low -Business Medium-Low Low Private -Houses= Formal, Informal Medium-Low Low
  • 23. 2.1.3 Insurance coverage USA MEX (Comerio, 1997)
  • 24. 2.1.4 Location of productive areas “Quake crushes Haiti’s economic revival Nation was moving toward stability, growth when disaster struck” http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/34866872 infrastructure damage textile manufacturing
  • 25. Damage 30% GDP 30% GDP 30%
  • 26. 2.2 Institutional Capacity -International help -National: Vertical, Horizontal, State International vertical horizontal city city
  • 27. horizontal vertical Santiago State Concepción International
  • 28. horizontal vertical Port-au-Prince State Jacmel International
  • 29. Opportunistic behaviour 2.3 Social factors “Atemorizados, los ciudadanos de ese barrio y de sus alrededores se andan por las calles con palos, hierros, bates de béisbol, cuchillos e incluso escopetas para proteger sus casas” La Tercera, 2 March 2010 “Piñera critica errores del gobierno de Bachelet tras el terremoto” La Tercera, 3th March 2010 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 2
  • 30. Collaborative behaviour _Sharing Food _Sharing Shelter _Rescuing tasks _Social order
  • 31. 2.3.2 Activation of Social Networks
  • 32. 1. Vulnerability 2. Reaction factors factors Quake 8.8 CHILE Quake 7.3 HAITI damage
  • 33. Remark Section 1: Clear correlation between poverty and vulnerability/reaction Vulnerability Factors >> poor nations than rich nations More vulnarable the poor than the rich within a nation the poor than the rich within a city the women than the men within a household Reaction Factors >> poor nations than rich nations Less capacity to poor than the rich within a nation recover poor than the rich within a city men than women?
  • 34. 3. Chain effects “No necesitamos ayuda internacional” (Bachelet, February 2010) “...Traditional measures of geological or hydro meteorological intensity, casualty rates, even the numbers of people made homeless, are not the appropriate indicators of a need for outside aid.” (Comerio, Mary 1997:324)
  • 35. Quake
  • 36. Telecom Victims Electricity Water Police Hospitals Transport Firemen Quake Network Housing damage Retail Industry Business
  • 37. 15 Telecom Victims Electricity Water Police Hospitals Transport Firemen Quake Network Housing damage Retail Industry Business
  • 38. Tsunami Telecom Victims Electricity Water Police Hospitals Transport Firemen Quake Network Housing damage Retail Industry Business
  • 39. Tsunami Lack No Water reaction capacity Victims Telecom Victims Victims Electricity Water Police Isolation Hospitals Transport Firemen Quake Trapped Network Housing damage No Water Retail Industry Business lack of shelter No Food No productivity Uncertainty
  • 40. Tsunami Lack No Water reaction capacity Victims Telecom Victims Victims Electricity Water Police Isolation Hospitals Transport Firemen Quake Trapped Network Housing damage No Water Retail Industry Business lack of shelter No Food No productivity Uncertainty
  • 41. Diseases Water Telecom Electricity Tsunami Lack No Water reaction Victims + capacity Putrefaction Victims Telecom Victims Victims Electricity Water Police Displacement Isolation Hospitals Lack Firemen Urb-Rural Transport reaction Quake Trapped Migration Network capacity Housing damage No Water Retail Industry No S / Business lack of shelter Increase D Local No Food Informal economy Inflation No productivity Uncertainty Reactivation Industry Fall Stock destroyed Social Exchange disorder
  • 42. Diseases Water Telecom Electricity Tsunami Lack No Water reaction Victims + capacity Putrefaction Victims Telecom Victims Victims Electricity Water Police Displacement Isolation Hospitals Lack Firemen Urb-Rural Transport reaction Quake Trapped Migration Network capacity Housing damage No Water Retail Industry No S / Business lack of shelter Increase D Local No Food Informal economy Inflation No productivity Uncertainty Reactivation Industry Fall Stock destroyed Social Exchange disorder
  • 43. Diseases Water Telecom Electricity Tsunami Victims + Lack reaction disappeared No Water Victims + capacity Putrefaction Victims Telecom Victims Victims Electricity Rural Water Police Displacement Overpopulation Isolation Hospitals Lack Firemen Urb-Rural Transport reaction Quake Trapped Migration Network capacity Housing damage Increase No Water Retail Industry Prices No S / Business lack of shelter Increase D Local No Food Informal economy Inflation No productivity Uncertainty Reactivation Firms Industry disappeared Fall Stock destroyed Firms Social Exchange disorder Relocation Nat. internat. Political Lack FDI outflow disorder reaction Political capacity Instability
  • 44. Diseases Water Telecom Electricity Tsunami Victims + Lack reaction disappeared No Water Victims + capacity Putrefaction Victims Telecom Victims Victims Electricity Rural Water Police Displacement Overpopulation Isolation Hospitals Lack Firemen Urb-Rural Transport reaction Quake Trapped Migration Network capacity Housing damage Increase No Water Retail Industry Prices No S / Business lack of shelter Increase D Local No Food Informal economy Inflation No productivity Uncertainty Reactivation Firms Industry disappeared Fall Stock destroyed Firms Social Exchange disorder Relocation Nat. internat. Political Lack FDI outflow disorder reaction Political capacity Instability
  • 45. Diseases Water Telecom Electricity Tsunami Victims + Lack reaction disappeared No Water Victims + capacity Putrefaction Victims Telecom Victims Victims Electricity Rural Water Police Displacement Overpopulation Isolation Hospitals Lack Firemen Urb-Rural Transport reaction Quake Trapped Migration Network capacity Housing damage Increase No Water Retail Industry Prices No S / Business lack of shelter Increase D Local No Food Informal economy Inflation No productivity Uncertainty Reactivation Firms Industry disappeared Fall Stock destroyed Firms Social Exchange disorder Relocation Nat. internat. Political Reg+Nat Lack FDI outflow disorder Unemployment reaction Political capacity Instability
  • 46. Diseases Water Telecom Electricity Tsunami Victims + Lack reaction disappeared No Water Victims + capacity Putrefaction Victims Telecom Victims Victims Electricity Rural Water Police Displacement Overpopulation Isolation Hospitals Lack Firemen Urb-Rural Transport reaction Quake Trapped Migration Network capacity Housing damage Increase No Water Retail Industry Prices No S / Business lack of shelter Increase D Local No Food Informal economy Inflation No productivity Uncertainty Reactivation Firms Industry disappeared Fall Stock destroyed Firms Social Exchange disorder Relocation Nat. internat. Political Reg+Nat Lack FDI outflow disorder Unemployment reaction Political capacity Instability
  • 47. Diseases Water Telecom Electricity Tsunami Victims + Lack reaction disappeared No Water Victims + capacity Putrefaction Victims Telecom Victims Victims Electricity Rural Water Police Displacement Overpopulation Isolation Hospitals Lack Firemen Urb-Rural Transport reaction Quake Trapped Migration Network capacity Housing damage Increase No Water Retail Industry Prices No S / Business lack of shelter Increase D Local No Food Informal economy Inflation No productivity Uncertainty Reactivation Firms Industry disappeared Fall Stock destroyed Firms Informal Social Exchange eco disorder Relocation Nat. internat. Political Reg+Nat Lack FDI outflow disorder Unemployment reaction Political Fall GDP capacity Instability
  • 48. Diseases Water Telecom Electricity Tsunami Victims + Lack reaction disappeared No Water Victims + capacity Putrefaction Victims Telecom Victims Victims Electricity Rural Water Police Displacement Overpopulation Isolation Hospitals Lack Firemen Urb-Rural Transport reaction Quake Trapped Migration Network capacity Housing damage Increase No Water Retail Industry Prices No S / Business lack of shelter Increase D Local No Food Informal economy Inflation No productivity Uncertainty Reactivation Firms Industry disappeared Fall Stock destroyed Firms Informal Social Exchange eco disorder Relocation Nat. internat. Political Reg+Nat Lack FDI outflow disorder Unemployment reaction Political Fall GDP capacity Instability
  • 49. Diseases Water Telecom Electricity Tsunami Victims + Lack reaction disappeared No Water Victims + capacity Putrefaction Victims Telecom Victims Victims Electricity Rural Water Police Displacement Overpopulation Isolation Hospitals Lack Firemen Urb-Rural Transport reaction Quake Trapped Migration Network capacity Housing damage Increase No Water Retail Industry Prices No S / Business lack of shelter Increase D Local No Food Informal economy Inflation No productivity Uncertainty Reactivation Firms Industry disappeared Fall Stock destroyed Firms Informal Social Exchange eco disorder Relocation Nat. internat. Political Reg+Nat Lack FDI outflow disorder Unemployment reaction Political Fall GDP capacity Instability
  • 50. Diseases Water Telecom Electricity Tsunami Victims + Lack reaction disappeared No Water Victims + capacity Putrefaction Victims Telecom Victims Victims Electricity Rural Water Police Displacement Overpopulation Isolation Hospitals Lack Firemen Urb-Rural Transport reaction Quake Trapped Migration Network capacity Housing damage Increase No Water Retail Industry Prices No S / Business lack of shelter Increase D Local No Food Informal economy Inflation No productivity Uncertainty Reactivation Firms Industry disappeared Fall Stock destroyed Firms Informal Social Exchange eco disorder Relocation Nat. internat. Political Reg+Nat Lack FDI outflow disorder Unemployment reaction Political Fall GDP capacity Instability
  • 51. 1.Victims and housing issues Rural-urban links Victims Trapped Rural Displacement Overpopulation Trapped Urb-Rural Quake Tsunami Migration Housing Affordabili loss damage Increase Housing No S / Prices damage lack of shelter Increase D Temporary Informal shelter shelter Formal shelter
  • 52. 1.Victims and housing issues 1. First housing damage resulting in first victims and potential victims trapped Rural-urban links Victims Trapped Rural Displacement Overpopulation Trapped Urb-Rural Quake Tsunami Migration Housing Affordabili loss damage Increase Housing No S / Prices damage lack of shelter Increase D Temporary Informal shelter shelter Formal shelter
  • 53. 1.Victims and housing issues 1. First housing damage resulting in first victims and potential victims trapped 2. Tsunami Rural-urban links Victims Trapped Rural Displacement Overpopulation Trapped Urb-Rural Quake Tsunami Migration Housing Affordabili loss damage Increase Housing No S / Prices damage lack of shelter Increase D Temporary Informal shelter shelter Formal shelter
  • 54. 1.Victims and housing issues 1. First housing damage resulting in first victims and potential victims trapped 2. Tsunami Rural-urban 3. Second housing damage links Victims Trapped and more victims Rural Displacement Overpopulation Trapped Urb-Rural Quake Tsunami Migration Housing Affordabili loss damage Increase Housing No S / Prices damage lack of shelter Increase D Temporary Informal shelter shelter Formal shelter
  • 55. 1.Victims and housing issues 1. First housing damage resulting in first victims and potential victims trapped 2. Tsunami Rural-urban 3. Second housing damage links Victims Trapped and more victims Rural Displacement Overpopulation 4. Lack of shelter: (WBIEG, 2006) Quake Trapped Urb-Rural Tsunami Migration Affordabili need of temporary-informal Housing loss damage Increase Housing No S / Prices shelter. It may become permanent damage lack of shelter Increase D in the long run (Chile, Haiti?) Temporary Informal shelter shelter Formal shelter
  • 56. 1.Victims and housing issues 1. First housing damage resulting in first victims and potential victims trapped 2. Tsunami Rural-urban 3. Second housing damage links Victims Trapped and more victims Rural Displacement Overpopulation 4. Lack of shelter: (WBIEG, 2006) Quake Trapped Urb-Rural Tsunami Migration Affordabili need of temporary-informal Housing loss damage Increase Housing No S / Prices shelter. It may become permanent damage lack of shelter Increase D in the long run (Chile, Haiti?) Temporary Informal shelter shelter Formal shelter
  • 57. 1.Victims and housing issues 1. First housing damage resulting in first victims and potential victims trapped 2. Tsunami Rural-urban 3. Second housing damage links Victims Trapped and more victims Rural Displacement Overpopulation 4. Lack of shelter: (WBIEG, 2006) Quake Trapped Urb-Rural Tsunami Migration Affordabili need of temporary-informal Housing loss damage Increase Housing No S / Prices shelter. It may become permanent damage lack of shelter Increase D in the long run (Chile, Haiti?) Temporary Informal shelter shelter Formal shelter
  • 58. 1.Victims and housing issues 1. First housing damage resulting in first victims and potential victims trapped 2. Tsunami Rural-urban 3. Second housing damage links Victims Trapped and more victims Rural Displacement Overpopulation 4. Lack of shelter: (WBIEG, 2006) Quake Trapped Urban-Rural Tsunami Migration Affordabili need of temporary-informal Housing loss damage Increase Housing No S / Prices shelter. It may become permanent damage lack of shelter Increase D in the long run (Chile, Haiti?) Temporary Informal shelter shelter 5. Displacement, urban-rural migration Formal and activation of rural-urban linkages (in an opposite way) shelter
  • 59. 1.Victims and housing issues 1. First housing damage resulting in first victims and potential victims trapped 2. Tsunami Rural-urban 3. Second housing damage links Victims Trapped and more victims Rural Displacement Overpopulation 4. Lack of shelter: (WBIEG, 2006) Quake Trapped Urban-Rural Tsunami Migration Affordabili need of temporary-informal Housing loss damage Increase Housing No S / Prices shelter. It may become permanent damage lack of shelter Increase D in the long run (Chile, Haiti?) Temporary Informal shelter shelter 5. Displacement, urban-rural migration Formal and activation of rural-urban linkages (in an opposite way) shelter 6. Rural overpopulation threatening the communities sustainability (environment degradation and increase in vulnerability)
  • 62. 1.Victims and housing issues 1. First housing damage resulting in first victims and potential victims trapped 2. Tsunami Rural-urban 3. Second housing damage links Victims Trapped and more victims Rural Displacement Overpopulation 4. Lack of shelter: (WBIEG, 2006) Quake Trapped Urban-Rural Tsunami Migration Affordabili need of temporary-informal Housing loss damage Increase Housing No S / Prices shelter. It may become permanent damage lack of shelter Increase D in the long run (Chile, Haiti?) Temporary Informal shelter shelter 5. Displacement, urban-rural migration Formal and activation of rural-urban linkages (in an opposite way) shelter 6. Rural overpopulation threatening the communities sustainability (environment degradation and increase in vulnerability) 5. An increase in demand and a lack of supply leads to an increase of prices (Gilbert, 2001)
  • 63. 1.Victims and housing issues 1. First housing damage resulting in first victims and potential victims trapped 2. Tsunami Rural-urban 3. Second housing damage links Victims Trapped and more victims Rural Displacement Overpopulation 4. Lack of shelter: (WBIEG, 2006) Quake Trapped Urban-Rural Tsunami Migration Affordabili need of temporary-informal Housing loss damage Increase Housing No S / Prices shelter. It may become permanent damage lack of shelter Increase D in the long run (Chile, Haiti?) Temporary Informal shelter shelter 5. Displacement, urban-rural migration Formal and activation of rural-urban linkages (in an opposite way) shelter 6. Rural overpopulation threatening the communities sutainability (environment degradation and increase in vulnerability) 5. An increase in demand and a lack of supply leads to an increase of prices and exclusion of the poor from the housing market (Gilbert, 2001)
  • 64. 2.Economic impacts Rural Overpopulation Quake Industry Business Tsunami Victims Informal economy No productivity Reactivation Firms Industry disappeared Informal Fall Stock destroyed Firms economy Exchange Relocation Nat. internat. Reg+Nat FDI outflow Unemployment Fall GDP
  • 65. 2.Economic impacts 1. Immediate destruction of the industries and the business sectors Rural Overpopulation Quake Industry Business Tsunami Victims Informal economy No productivity Reactivation Firms Industry disappeared Informal Fall Stock destroyed Firms economy Exchange Relocation Nat. internat. Reg+Nat FDI outflow Unemployment Fall GDP
  • 66. 2.Economic impacts 1. Immediate destruction of the industries and the business sectors 2. Productivity ceases Rural Overpopulation Quake Industry Business Tsunami Victims Informal economy No productivity Reactivation Firms Industry disappeared Informal Fall Stock destroyed Firms economy Exchange Relocation Nat. internat. Reg+Nat FDI outflow Unemployment Fall GDP
  • 67. 2.Economic impacts 1. Immediate destruction of the industries and the business sectors 2. Productivity ceases 3. Impacts on the Stock Exchange (Chile: cement industries up) 4. First signs reactivation Rural Overpopulation Quake Industry Business Tsunami Victims Informal economy No productivity Reactivation Firms Industry disappeared Informal Fall Stock destroyed Firms economy Exchange Relocation Nat. internat. Reg+Nat FDI outflow Unemployment Fall GDP
  • 68. 2.Economic impacts 1. Immediate destruction of the industries and the business sectors 2. Productivity ceases 3. Impacts on the Stock Exchange (Chile: cement industries up) 4. First signs reactivation Rural Overpopulation 5. Risk of investment Quake outflow due to affected SE 6. Firms relocate Industry Business Tsunami Victims nationally and internationally Informal economy No productivity Reactivation Firms Industry disappeared Informal Fall Stock destroyed Firms economy Exchange Relocation Nat. internat. Reg+Nat FDI outflow Unemployment Fall GDP
  • 69. 2.Economic impacts 1. Immediate destruction of the industries and the business sectors 2. Productivity ceases 3. Impacts on the Stock Exchange (Chile: cement industries up) 4. First signs reactivation Rural Overpopulation 5. Risk of investment Quake outflow due to affected SE 6. Firms relocate Industry Business Tsunami Victims nationally and internationally Informal economy No productivity 7. Growth of regional and national unemployment in the long run Reactivation Firms Industry disappeared Informal Fall Stock destroyed Firms economy Exchange Relocation Nat. internat. Reg+Nat FDI outflow Unemployment Fall GDP
  • 70. 2.Economic impacts 1. Immediate destruction of the industries and the business sectors 2. Productivity ceases 3. Impacts on the Stock Exchange (Chile: cement industries up) 4. First signs reactivation Rural Overpopulation 5. Risk of investment Quake outflow due to affected SE 6. Firms relocate Industry Business Tsunami Victims nationally and internationally Informal economy No productivity 7. Growth of regional and national unemployment in the long run Reactivation Firms Industry disappeared 8. Overall fall in the GDP Fall Stock destroyed Firms Informal economy Exchange Relocation “The long-term outlook for Haiti’s Nat. internat. Reg+Nat economy won’t be known until the crisis subsides” FDI outflow Unemployment Fall GDP (msnbc news, 2010)
  • 71. 2.Economic impacts 1. Immediate destruction of the industries and the business sectors 2. Productivity ceases 3. Impacts on the Stock Exchange (Chile: cement industries up) 4. First signs reactivation Rural Overpopulation 5. Risk of investment Quake outflow due to affected SE 6. Firms relocate Industry Business Tsunami Victims nationally and internationally Informal economy No productivity 7. Growth of regional and national unemployment in the long run Reactivation Firms Industry disappeared 8. Overall fall in the GDP Fall Stock destroyed Firms Informal economy Exchange Relocation 9. Of course, all relates to the Nat. internat. Reg+Nat enormous losses of population FDI outflow Unemployment Fall GDP
  • 72. 2.Economic impacts 1. Immediate destruction of the industries and the business sectors 2. Productivity ceases 3. Impacts on the Stock Exchange (Chile: cement industries up) 4. First signs reactivation Rural Overpopulation 5. Risk of investment Quake outflow due to affected SE 6. Firms relocate Industry Business Tsunami Victims nationally and internationally Informal economy No productivity 7. Growth of regional and national unemployment in the long run Reactivation Firms Industry disappeared 8. Overall fall in the GDP Fall Stock destroyed Firms Informal economy Exchange Relocation 9. Of course, all relates to the Nat. internat. Reg+Nat enormous losses of population FDI outflow Unemployment Fall GDP
  • 73. 2.Economic impacts informal economy Rural Overpopulation Quake Industry Business Tsunami Victims Informal economy No productivity Reactivation Firms Industry disappeared Informal Fall Stock destroyed Firms economy Exchange Relocation Nat. internat. Reg+Nat FDI outflow Unemployment Fall GDP
  • 74. Economic impacts in the short term _ Informal sector gains and becomes literally the only way to survive Rural Overpopulation Quake Industry Business Tsunami Victims Informal economy No productivity Reactivation Firms Industry disappeared Informal Fall Stock destroyed Firms economy Exchange Relocation Nat. internat. Reg+Nat FDI outflow Unemployment Fall GDP
  • 75. 2.Economic impacts _ Informal sector gains and becomes literally the only way to survive _Providing informal livelihoods opportunities essential to recover (WB, 2006): Economic recovery Rural Overpopulation but also…. Quake psychological Industry Business Tsunami Victims Informal economy No productivity Reactivation Firms Industry disappeared Informal Fall Stock destroyed Firms economy Exchange Relocation Nat. internat. Reg+Nat FDI outflow Unemployment Fall GDP
  • 76. 2.Economic impacts _ Informal sector gains and becomes literally the only way to survive _Providing informal livelihoods opportunities essential to recovery (WB, 2006): Economic recovery Rural Overpopulation but also…. Quake psychological Industry _In the case of Haiti Business Tsunami Victims the most prominent sectors are: Informal economy No productivity _Mobile barbers Reactivation Firms _Improvised phone booths Industry disappeared Informal _Hot dog stalls and furniture Fall Stock destroyed Firms economy Exchange Relocation Nat. internat. Reg+Nat FDI outflow Let’s visit Mr Jules in Rua Grande… Unemployment Fall GDP http://transformationallogistics.wordpress.com/2010/01/27/haiti-and-the-informal-response/
  • 77. Hoping for costumers in Haiti (providing a livelihood ) “Mr. Jules, 48, home gone, several relatives dead, goes to the Grand Rue with Mr Frade to move from grieving to doing. “You never know, maybe someone will come and buy something”. He smiled, then added “Unfortunately, though, they never do”” http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2010/02/07/world/grand-rue-pano.html