1. DFID
Department for
International This key sheet is part of a series aimed at DFID staff and
D eve l o p m e n t development partners examining the impact of climate
change on poverty, and exploring tools for adaptation to
climate change.
This key sheet concentrates on climate change in Africa. It aims
to guide the reader through the key issues of:
• Africa’s climate;
• Climate change in Africa;
• Impacts on development;
• Implications for Africa; and
• Implications for international policies.
10 Climate change in Africa
Increasing climate variability is compounding vulnerability in
Africa. Development planning needs to consider current and
increasing climatic risks.
’As if land shortage is not bad enough, we live a
life of tension worrying about the rain: will it
rain or not? There is nothing about which we say
1
‘this is for tomorrow’. We live hour to hour’ .
Even without predicted changes in climate,
Africa has a highly variable and unpredictable
climate. Africa today struggles to cope with
these existing climate pressures, due to wider
development issues including governance,
poverty and AIDS. The question of how to
adapt to climate change in Africa must
therefore be answered in the context of these
immediate problems.
Understanding the climate’s impact on poverty
in Africa is key to identifying the most effective
means of adaptation to climate change. The
ability to adapt to increasing climate variability
depends on planning systems that take into
account the impact of climate on development.
Climate variability, drought and poor people’s
vulnerability should not be seen as separate
emergency issues.
Coping with
today’s climate
Africa has a highly variable and unpredictable
climate, which is poorly understood by
Sven Torfinn, Panos
climatologists (see Box 1 for comments on the
scientific understanding of Africa’s climate).
Climate variability has significant impacts
on African development, for example, the
1 Narayan, D., Chambers, S.M. and Petesh, P. 2000. Crying out for change.
Voices of the Poor series. The World Bank, Oxford University Press, New
York.
1

2. implications of drought in relation to food
security and hydropower. Climate extremes Box 1
Climate have significant economic impacts and drive
large allocations of emergency resources. What do we know
variability
has
For example: about Africa’s climate?
• The 1991/2 drought in Malawi resulted in a What we know is that Africa has a highly
significant 2
loss of US$1billion in cereal losses ; variable and unpredictable climate. It is
impacts on not fully understood by climatologists. For
• The 2000 drought drastically reduced the
African electricity potential of hydropower in Kenya, example, rainfall in the Sahel varies for the
develop- which depends on hydropower for around region as a whole, over short distances,
ment. It 70% of its power supply. The drought led to from year to year, and within single
daily blackouts and power rationing. A seasons. There are a number of key points:
drives large
US$72 million emergency loan from the • It is difficult to model the African
allocations World Bank was required, including climate, due to a complex topography,
of emergency diesel generators ;
3
feedbacks from surface cover, and the
emergency influence of ocean basins;
resources • Baseline data on African climate, which
is essential to drive models of future
climate, is sketchy at present;
• El Niño has a dominant influence on
climate patterns in Africa – it is linked
with reduced summer rainfall in South
Poor East Africa (e.g. the drought in Southern
people’s Africa in 1991/2), and with higher than
ability to average rainfall in Eastern Africa – but it
is not fully understood, and is mixed up
manage
with the effect of climate change; and
climate
• Due to the feedback of surface cover on
variability climate in Africa, there may be apparent
will be over- climatic changes that are widely seen as
whelmed by greenhouse gas-induced ‘climate change’.
the extent of
climate
change What do we know
about climate change
in Africa?
Paul Lowe, Panos
Models of climate change suggest that the
climate in Africa will become more variable.
Some regional predictions for changes in
temperature and rainfall have been made.
Predictions of the long-run effects – over the
6
• Mozambique’s rate of GDP growth declined next 50 years – suggest the following changes :
from 8% in 1999 to 2% in 2000, as a result
of the devastating cyclone and associated • Africa is likely to get drier in northern and
4
floods of 2000 ; and southern latitudes and wetter in the tropics;
• These overall trends hide variation within
• The 1997/8 El Niño caused extensive floods
regions and countries, for example southern
in Somalia and Kenya during the driest
Africa may be drier as a whole but some
month of the year leading to disease, damage
countries may be wetter than average;
to property and crops. An outbreak of rift
valley disease led to livestock deaths and a • Climate variability and the frequency and
malaria outbreak caused hundreds of deaths intensity of severe weather events is likely to
5
in previously unexposed populations . increase; and
2 Clay, E., Bohn, L., Blanco de Armas, E., Kabambe, S., and Tchale, H.,2003 Emergency Power Supply Project. Report No. T-7388-KE.
Malawi and Southern Africa: Climatic Variability and Economic Performance. 4 World Bank 2003 World Development Indicators database.
Disaster Risk Management Working Paper No. 7. http://devdata.worldbank.org/data-query/ and Mozambique’s PRSP:
3 The total value of the loan was $120 million but was expected to provide http://poverty.worldbank.org/files/Mozambique_PRSP.pdf
benefits of $48 million in power revenues. Of the $72 million, 70% was 5 Little P.D., Hussein, M. and Coppock D.L.. 2001 When deserts flood: risk
spent on increasing private sector capacity and 30% on increasing fuel management and climatic processes among East African pastoralists.
2 supply to an existing thermal power plant. World Bank 2000 Technical Climate research 19: 149-159.
Annex for a Proposed Credit of $72 million to the Republic of Kenya for an

3. • Sea level rise associated with climate change and anthropogenic factors) has already reduced
could threaten low-lying areas of West Africa, the potential vegetative productivity of more
and coastal fisheries. than a quarter of Africa’s land by 25% over the
past 30 years.
Some rapid changes have already been
observed. For example, in the Sahel there has Health may be affected as climate change
been on average a 25% decrease in rainfall results in the extension of malaria risk zones,
over the past 30 years – characterised by a as temperatures increase and patterns of
7
decrease in the number of rainfall events . rain change.
Uncertainty of predictions
There is currently very little information – that
is of practical use to decision-makers – on the
precise extent and impacts of climate change,
especially for any specific location within a
country. Most climate change predictions are
for the long-term (2050–2100) while shorter-
term suggestions are too uncertain to use in
planning decisions, and global climate models
make predictions on a very broad scale of
300km2. Making predictions of future climate
change in Africa is problematic as a result of
Africa’s complex climate and the lack of data
on the current climate to feed into models (see
Box 1). This reduces confidence in projections
of future change. Specific predictions at the
country-level or in the short-term are
particularly uncertain.
Nevertheless, climate change will inevitably
present a significant challenge for developing
countries, and the need to adapt to these
Jeremy Hartley, Panos
changes remains an inescapable conclusion. In
a practical sense we can start by reducing their
vulnerability to today’s climate.
Impact on
development • Malaria has already increased in the
The longer-term impacts will include: changing highlands of Rwanda and Tanzania associated
rainfall patterns affecting agriculture, food with recent changes in temperature. Longer-
security and economic growth; shifting term modelling suggests malaria transmission
9
temperature zones affecting vector diseases; risk will double by 2080 .
We need to
decreased water security; sea level rise; and the • Rift valley fever, which afflicts people and
understand economic costs of extreme weather damage. livestock, is closely related to heavy rainfall
how the and such conditions may increase with climate
Food security is likely to be affected by
climate increased frequency and intensity of droughts change. An outbreak in 1997 associated with
affects the or floods. Gradual changes may also be a an El Niño event killed up to 80% of livestock
vulnerability concern: studies show an increase in in Somalia and northern Kenya.
temperature by an average of 2ºC would
of the poor • Cholera, associated with both floods and
drastically reduce the area suitable for growing
droughts, may increase with climate change.
Robusta coffee in Uganda, where it is a major
8 Floods can contaminate public water
export crop, limiting it to the highlands only .
supplies and drought leads to unhygienic
Climate change may also contribute to practices because of water shortages. There is
desertification by changing the spatial and also evidence that increased temperatures
temporal patterns of temperature, rainfall and can increase the levels of cholera bacteria in
winds. Desertification (caused by both climate tropical seas and lakes.
6 Obasi, G.O.P. and Topfer K. (Ed.s) 2001 IPCC Summary Report for Policy 9 Martens et al 1999. Climate change and future populations at risk of
Makers. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New malaria. Global Environmental Change 9: S89-S107.
York, NY, USA.: www.ipcc.ch/pub/spm22-01.pdf
7 Hulme, M. 2001 Climatic perspectives on Sahelian desiccation: 1973-1998.
Global Environmental Change Part A 11(1): 19-29.
8 Simonett, O. 1989 Potential impacts of global warming. Case studies on
3 climate change. GRID-UNEP, Geneva.

4. • Meningitis transmission, associated with dust ability of the poor to cope with the existing
in semi-arid conditions and overcrowded climate. AIDS in particular is changing
living conditions, may increase with climate development patterns. If current AIDS trends
change as arid and dusty conditions spread continue in Africa, it is predicted that life
across the Sahelian belt of Africa. expectancy will fall below 30 years of age by
2010. It is already changing social structures in
Water security. By 2050 rainfall in Africa could
Sub-Saharan Africa. For example, in Zimbabwe
decline by 5% and become more variable year
10 2.2 million people are living with AIDS and
by year .
600,000 children have been orphaned by the
Displacement of people. Sea level rise resulting pandemic, losing both their immediate and
from global climate change threatens coasts, extended families.
lagoons and mangrove forests of both eastern
and western Africa including Mozambique,
Tanzania and Angola. Sea level rise is likely to
threaten coastal infrastructure and settlements
along the coasts of Africa, with impacts on
urban centres and ports, such as Cape Town,
Maputo, and Dar es Salaam.
More than a quarter of Africa’s population lives
within 100km of the coast, and projections
suggest that the number of people at risk from
coastal flooding will increase from 1 million in
1990 to 70 million in 2080. Coastal and
inland flooding, related to excess rainfall, is
also a risk for road, rail and air networks. In
Tanzania, a sea level rise of 0.5 m would
inundate over 2,000 km2 of land, costing
11
around US$51 million .
Beneficial impacts. Not all changes will be
negative: growing seasons may lengthen with
better rains in some areas, or increasing
temperature may deliver increased crop,
livestock and fisheries yields. However,
predicting what any of these changes are in the
short-term is currently speculative, and
beneficial impacts are likely to be outweighed
by the adverse impacts of unpredictable change.
Impact on the poor
It is difficult to predict the impact of increasing
climate variability on the poor and levels of
poverty. However, it is clear that the impact of
Morris Carpenter, Panos
climate variability is multiplied in Africa due to
the many development problems it faces.
‘The drought’s effect is made worse because of
AIDS. AIDS is devastating traditional Swazi life,
as before we were able to help one another
in the fields.’
Chief Malvnge Nyangenn, Swaziland, commenting
on the 2001 drought. The poor have mechanisms to cope with
The poor face a particularly rapid pace of climate variability, but many of these will be
change in Africa, due to the globalisation of overwhelmed by the extent of changes or by
trade, conflict and demographic change. Trends other pressures on their livelihoods. Households
such as the rising burden of AIDS, and the in Niger have dealt with recurrent drought
impact of prolonged conflict are reducing the through a variety of strategies including
10 WWF 1996 Study of Impacts of Climate Change in Southern Africa.
Prepared by the Climate Research Unit at the University of East Anglia, UK.
11 UNEP 2002 Africa Environmental Outlook: Past, Present and Future
Perspectives. UNEP: Nairobi.
4

5. networks of affinity and trust; livelihood Understand the vulnerabilities and
decisions responsive to environmental capacities of the poor
disturbances; switching between capital assets;
Understanding the impacts of climate
and migration to look for work until the drought
variability on the poor requires an
has passed. However in contrast, pastoralists in
understanding of people’s vulnerabilities and
Kenya were unable to draw on traditional
capacities to all external shocks and trends.
migration strategies during the 2000 drought
because land had been sold off to meet income For example, comprehensive vulnerability
needs and more affluent farmers had erected assessments of food security and livelihood
barriers across grazing lands. conditions are being undertaken in six SADC
countries – Zimbabwe, Malawi, Zambia,
In Sudan in 1997, conflict worsened the impact Swaziland, Lesotho and Mozambique – by the
of drought, leading to a famine and deaths of Vulnerability Assessment Committees (VACs).
100,000 people. The drought was triggered by The VACs were set up in 1999 and are made up
abnormal changes in the intensity and of governments and partner agencies, with field
distribution of rainfall, but the ongoing conflict teams undertaking focus group discussions, key
Increasing had led to an increase in vulnerability: an informant interviews and house-to-house visits
climate estimated 40% of households lost their cattle in order to undertake livelihood analyses and
variability and 80% households were displaced. Conflict collect data for indicators. The vulnerability
also disrupted markets and distribution of food assessments enable targeted assistance for food
makes aid, leading to scarcity of food and aid. Similar approaches, that take a holistic
poverty exceptionally high food prices .
12
view of what causes vulnerability, can also be
reduction The increasing climatic variability in Africa, used to design longer-term programmes of risk
more resulting from increasing concentrations of reduction and poverty alleviation.
difficult atmospheric GHG emissions, makes poverty
reduction more difficult and adds greater Reduce the vulnerability of the poor
urgency to decreasing the vulnerability of a) Support the coping strategies of the poor
the poorest.
Based on an understanding of vulnerabilities,
capacities and risks, support can build on
The country-level people’s local means of coping with risk. This
might include income-generating activities to
response allow for cash purchases, or supporting
Africa is in need of urgent effective development migration as a form of coping with climate
action, which, by definition, is resilient to variation or market fluctuations.
current and increasing climate variability. It is In Mali, Bukina Faso and Niger in the Sahel,
necessary to strengthen systems for coping with there is a range of migration patterns, as
climate variability and reducing vulnerability, families cope with resource scarcity. In Mali,
and to integrate these into planning. there is circular migration of women and
Strengthened systems for coping with current children because drought is localised and a
climate variability will enable Africa to address move to stay with relatives elsewhere
13
the longer-term impacts of climate change. reduces pressure on the household . Seasonal
Climate variability drives huge allocations of migration to towns may also present an
emergency resources and affects everything attractive option in areas with opportunities to
from health and infrastructure planning to gain income or skills. Focused policies that
public finances and budget support debates. enhance the benefits and reduce the risks of
migration can therefore help reduce
DFID contributed £43 million in relief to Africa vulnerability to climate change.
alone in 2002. A ‘relief culture’ – in which
local and national authorities rely on b) Support government action
humanitarian agencies to address humanitarian
crises – must be avoided. The alternative is a Governments also have a responsibility to
‘risk reduction’ or risk management culture, share the burden of climate risks and take
providing co-ordinated social protection, specific action to reduce the vulnerability of
preventative measures and carefully targeted the poor.
relief, and promoting increased resilience African farmers need research and support to
through access to markets and income- help them adapt to existing weather and other
generating opportunities. issues including pests and markets. This might
12 Deng, L.B. 1999 Famine in Sudan: Causes, Preparedness and Response - A
political, social and economic analysis of the 1998 Bahrel Ghazal Famine.
IDS Discussion Paper 369.
13 Rain, D. 1999 Eaters of the Dry Season: Circular Labour Migration in the
5 West African Sahel. Westview, Boulder.

6. include reliable early warning systems giving The following key sheets explore these issues in
information on the timing, length and more detail:
adequacy of rainfall, or research into crop
• Key sheet 05 Responding to the risks of
species that are more resilient to both pests and
climate change: Are different approaches to
climate variation. The most successful early
poverty eradication necessary?
warning systems rely on detailed surveillance
of communities and monitor social changes as • Key sheet 06 Adaptation to climate change:
well as changes in rainfall. For example: Making development disaster-proof;
• The Government of Kenya has developed a • Key sheet 07 Adaptation to climate change:
community-based surveillance questionnaire The right information can help the poor to cope;
that collects information on the movement of
• Key sheet 08 Adaptation to climate change:
pastoralists and the length of time and
Can insurance reduce the vulnerability of the
distance to fetch water supplies. This early
poor? and
warning system forms part of a wider
natural resource and drought management • Key sheet 09 Taking initial steps towards
programme that supports building adaptation.
institutional capacity for contingency
planning e.g. drought scenario planning,
design of rapid interventions, and improving The international
the linkages between district governments
14
and communities ; and
response
To support adaptive capacity in Africa, there are
• In Namibia the ad-hoc response to the 1992
a number of implications for international policy
drought has led to the development of a
and research, including the UN Framework
National Drought Strategy. This includes
Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and
protective measures such as provision for a
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
National Drought Fund and an emergency
(IPCC). The UK Government will:
water supply scheme; preventative measures
such as early warning systems and cash-for- • Work to foster a collective process allowing
work schemes; and promotive measures such the exploration of options and negotiation of
as small-scale irrigation, rainwater harvesting, solutions for a global emissions reduction
15
and improved aquifer management . regime in partnership with developing
countries;
Integrate climate risks into
• Work with African governments to place the
development planning
voice of poor countries in Africa more
In a highly aid-dependent Africa, providing effectively in the negotiation process;
additional aid to cover ‘climate change’ as a
• Encourage the international research
separate issue – or current climate variability as
community to develop a research agenda that
a separate issue – will not be effective in
Responding reflect the needs of poor countries, is based
reducing the impact of climate on poverty.
on an understanding of current poverty and
to climate
Responding to climate variability requires vulnerability, and provide tools to predict and
variability development agencies and African governments understand current climate variability and
requires that to work on the development of planning systems extremes and short term climate change
planning that integrate increasing climate risks. Planning within planning timescales (3-5 years); and
that takes account of current climate patterns
systems • Support African governments to identify the
can be improved across a range of sectors such
integrate as agriculture, water resources management and practical implications of information arising
climate risks public health. from the research community, including
long-term scenarios generated by global or
There is the opportunity to achieve this through regional climate models.
PRSPs (Poverty Reduction Strategy Processes)
and similar processes, which should contain
realistic growth predictions and plans that
reflect the impacts of climate. For example, the
government of Mozambique has recognised
climate variability and extremes as a constraint
to development within its Poverty Reduction
Strategy Paper.
14 Office of the President, Kenya 2002 Project Concept Document: Arid Lands
Management Project Phase II.
15 Sweet, J. 1998 Livestock – Coping with Drought: Namibia – A Case Study.
Northern Regions Livestock Development Project Tsumeb, Namibia.
6 Prepared for the FAO.

7. Further information Contact details
Seasonal rainfall predictions for Africa DFID Public Enquiry Point
(Regional Climate Fora):
Tel: 0845 300 4100
http://www.ogp.noaa.gov/mpe/csi/appdev/
(local call rate from within the UK)
africa/mapalg.htm
Tel: + 44 (0) 1355 84 3132
Regional climate change impacts (from outside the UK)
(Chapters 7, 10 & 11): Fax: + 44 (0) 1355 84 3632
http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc/regional/ Email: enquiry@dfid.gov.uk
Website: http://www.dfid.gov.uk/
Maps of climate change impacts
(World Resources Institute): Global and Local Environment Team,
http://www.climatehotmap.org/ Policy Division, DFID
Living with Risk: A global review of disaster Tel: + 44 (0) 20 7023 0934
reduction initiatives: Fax: + 44 (0) 20 7023 0074
http://www.unisdr.org/unisdr/eng/about_isdr/ Email: s-pieri@dfid.gov.uk
basic_docs/LwR2003/lwr-03-table-contents-
eng.htm
Risk reduction Network, ProVention
Consortium:
http://www.proventionconsortium.org/
Report on Adaptation to climate change in the
developing world (IIED):
www.iied.org/docs/climate/adapt_to_cc.pdf
Estimated number of people at risk of climate
change. The Jackson Institute at the University
of East Anglia: www.uea.ac.uk
7

8. © Crown Copyright 2004. Any part of this
publication may be freely reproduced
providing the source is fully acknowledged.
8