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Getting Real About Single Payer:
The Economic Argument for the Long Term
Walter Tsou, MD, MPH
Health Care for All Pennsylvania
February 7, 2015
Pennsylvania in a Pickle
• $2+ billion dollar deficit
• Revenue from shale gas much less than predicted
• Huge pension obligation
• Restore $1 billion of public education funding?
• Republican legislature tax adverse
• Cut spending? But where?
What would you cut to get $3 billion?
Zogby, 2014-15 Mid Year Budget Briefing, Dec. 3, 2014
What is the biggest ignored
waste of taxpayer funds?
US spends more per capita
OECD Health Data, Kaiser Family Foundation
$750 Billion on Unnecessary Care?
The Cost of Unnecessary Care?
Institute of Medicine, “Best Care at Lower Cost, Sept 2012
Billing and Insurance Costs
18% of US Health Care Costs
Jiwani et al. BMC Health Services Research (2014)14:556
Single Payer savings $375 BILLION in US
Jiwani et al. BMC Health Services Research (2014)14:556
Why single payer saves money?
• Competitive purchasing of services (free
market)
• Negotiated fee schedules and prices
• Reduced administrative costs
• Robust information management system
Affordable Care Act vs. Single Payer
State single payer bill
• The Family and Business Health Security Act
would cost 10% of payroll and 3% personal
income tax for individuals
• Comprehensive coverage for all medical,
vision, dental, mental health and long term
care services
• Coverage for life (eliminates need for retiree
health costs for those who stay in Penna)
Outside Economic Analysis
• Dr. Gerald Friedman, Professor of Economics,
Univ. of Massachusetts studied the plan
• $17 billion annual savings
Education funding
• Restore $1 billion in cuts
• 10% payroll vs. 2009 school district health
spending (19.4%)?
• Savings for school districts? $1.15 billion
Pension funding, 2 parts
• Pensions – wages post retirement –somewhat
funded
• Other Post Employment Benefits – pay as you
go
– Health care premiums
– Life insurance premiums
– Deferred compensation
Retiree Health Care
The hidden costs
Zogby, 2014-15 Mid Year Budget Briefing, Dec. 3, 2014
Accrued Retiree Health Unfunded
Liability is over $16 BILLION!
Hay Group, August 21, 2013, “Actuarial Valuation of the Post Retirement Medical Plan”
Bottom Line, $2.5 Billion annually for
Retiree Health Costs just in PA
Hay Group, August 21, 2013, “Actuarial Valuation of the Post Retirement Medical Plan”
Retiree Health Care Costs
• Only a single payer plan can you guarantee
coverage of future health care costs
• Converts an accrual $16 billion liability to a
pay as you go liability – much more affordable
Expand Medicaid
• While we support, it maintains the enormous
administrative waste
• No cost containment features
Summary
• Single payer is the only solution that can
generate billions in state savings
• Able to save in education, pensions, and
Medicaid
• The alternative budget are unconscionable
cuts

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Getting real about single payer

  • 1. Getting Real About Single Payer: The Economic Argument for the Long Term Walter Tsou, MD, MPH Health Care for All Pennsylvania February 7, 2015
  • 2. Pennsylvania in a Pickle • $2+ billion dollar deficit • Revenue from shale gas much less than predicted • Huge pension obligation • Restore $1 billion of public education funding? • Republican legislature tax adverse • Cut spending? But where?
  • 3. What would you cut to get $3 billion? Zogby, 2014-15 Mid Year Budget Briefing, Dec. 3, 2014
  • 4. What is the biggest ignored waste of taxpayer funds?
  • 5. US spends more per capita OECD Health Data, Kaiser Family Foundation
  • 6. $750 Billion on Unnecessary Care?
  • 7. The Cost of Unnecessary Care? Institute of Medicine, “Best Care at Lower Cost, Sept 2012
  • 8. Billing and Insurance Costs 18% of US Health Care Costs Jiwani et al. BMC Health Services Research (2014)14:556
  • 9. Single Payer savings $375 BILLION in US Jiwani et al. BMC Health Services Research (2014)14:556
  • 10. Why single payer saves money? • Competitive purchasing of services (free market) • Negotiated fee schedules and prices • Reduced administrative costs • Robust information management system
  • 11. Affordable Care Act vs. Single Payer
  • 12. State single payer bill • The Family and Business Health Security Act would cost 10% of payroll and 3% personal income tax for individuals • Comprehensive coverage for all medical, vision, dental, mental health and long term care services • Coverage for life (eliminates need for retiree health costs for those who stay in Penna)
  • 13. Outside Economic Analysis • Dr. Gerald Friedman, Professor of Economics, Univ. of Massachusetts studied the plan • $17 billion annual savings
  • 14. Education funding • Restore $1 billion in cuts • 10% payroll vs. 2009 school district health spending (19.4%)? • Savings for school districts? $1.15 billion
  • 15. Pension funding, 2 parts • Pensions – wages post retirement –somewhat funded • Other Post Employment Benefits – pay as you go – Health care premiums – Life insurance premiums – Deferred compensation
  • 16. Retiree Health Care The hidden costs Zogby, 2014-15 Mid Year Budget Briefing, Dec. 3, 2014
  • 17. Accrued Retiree Health Unfunded Liability is over $16 BILLION! Hay Group, August 21, 2013, “Actuarial Valuation of the Post Retirement Medical Plan”
  • 18. Bottom Line, $2.5 Billion annually for Retiree Health Costs just in PA Hay Group, August 21, 2013, “Actuarial Valuation of the Post Retirement Medical Plan”
  • 19. Retiree Health Care Costs • Only a single payer plan can you guarantee coverage of future health care costs • Converts an accrual $16 billion liability to a pay as you go liability – much more affordable
  • 20. Expand Medicaid • While we support, it maintains the enormous administrative waste • No cost containment features
  • 21. Summary • Single payer is the only solution that can generate billions in state savings • Able to save in education, pensions, and Medicaid • The alternative budget are unconscionable cuts