Greek crisis is mainly economic in nature, but the geopolitical dimensions should not be underestimated. Following the analys of Thanos Dokos in ELIAMEP, if Greece fails to recover, it may well be forced to leave the Eurozone with a huge economic and political impact for the Euro and the EU. He argues there will be severe repercussions for regional stability in Southeastern Europe and the Eastern Mediterranean, as well as the EU‘s and NATO‘s ability to play a substantial role in those regions. Allowing Greece to become a weak or even a semi-failed state will have an impact well beyond its immediate borders. On many issues, the ability of Greece to make a positive contribution should no longer be taken for granted.

1. Hugo Cuello (cdhugo@hotmail.com)Hugo Cuello (cdhugo@hotmail.com)
May 2012May 2012
The GeopoliticalThe Geopolitical
ConsecuencesConsecuences
of the Greekof the Greek
CrisisCrisis

2.  “Economic and social
turbulence on Europe’s
southern periphery will
constitute a geopolitical risk.”
Yannos Papantoniou. Former
Economy and Finance Minister
of Greece. Project Syndicate
 “An inadequate response to
the economic crisis has now
resulted in a political crisis,
and it is imperative that we
learn from this failure.
That is only way to avoid a new
transformation of the political
crisis into a geopolitical crisis”
George Prevelakis. Professor
of Geopolitics at the University
Pantheon-Sorbonne. Le Figaro

3. Dimensions of the Greek Crisis
 Economic – Political – Geopolitical
 Foreign Policy as a populist tool
 Neighbors cannot remain indiferent
 The EU neither
“Greece should start seeking
new, fruitful alliances with
giants like Russia and China,
which could be proved
unexpectedly beneficial in
the future”

4. What could happen?(By Thanos Dokos in “Who Lost Greece? The Geopolitical Consequences of the Greek Crisis”)
 3 posible escenarios to predict the
evolution of Greece’s foreign policy
Stormy Eurozone EU
Cloudy Eurozone EU
Sunny Eurozone EU

5. TurkeyTurkey
Relations turn to the 90s
Frequent incidents in the
Aegean.
NATO paralyzed
No progress. Some
economic relations
Erratic and unstable
political relations
Normalization of
relations
Improved economic
relations
CyprusCyprus
Tension rises as harden
their positions
Status quo continues
Greece no longer player
Win-win approach. The
problem is solved
FYROMFYROM
Harden positions. People
frustrated on others
behavior
Diplomatic stalemate
continues.
No compromises
EU and US pressure for a
compromise solution
AlbaniaAlbania
Expulsion of Albanian
workers
Discrimination and
territorial disputes
Bilateral relations fluctuate.
Remains a negative
atmosphere because of
nationalism
Resolve problems of
delimitation and workers.
Support EU membership
BalkansBalkans
Marginalized. Shrink
economic presence.
Mantains economic
presence but lack of real
influence because of ec.
and pol. weakness
Leadership. Stabilizing
factor. Active bloc in the
EU

6. EnergyEnergy
Not oil/gas piperline in
Greece territory.
Problems with Turkey
Dependance on Iran
Enlarges slightly its
footprint on the energy
map (Southern Corridor)
Some explotations in Greek
territory
Becomes an energy
hub (South Stream,
deposits on Crete)
Greek-owned ships
transport
MigrationMigration
Unable to controll
illegal inmigration.
Racism, xenophobia
Radicalization of
inmigrants comm.
Limited progress
controlling inmigration
Situation remains
problematic
Improves inmigrat
reception systems
FRONTEX support
and Turkish
cooperation
DomesticDomestic
SecuritySecurity
Unstable and unsafe
country
Hard criminality, social
tension, political
violence etc.
Forzed to leave Schengen
Agreement
Serious challenges to
maintain law and order
Reform of the security
sector
Cooperation at the
European level
TerrorismTerrorism
Domestic terrorism out
of control
Radical Islamist cells?
Domestic terrorism still
serious problem
Desestabilization, fragility
Political violence
under control
Economy improves

8. Questions
 Is any of these scenarios posible?
 What would mean for the European
influence and prestige to take Greece out
of the EU?
Hugo Cuello for the University of Copenhagen