1. Impact of climate change on wheat phenology in the NSW wheat belt 1 I & I NSW, Wagga Wagga Agricultural Institute 2 EH Graham Centre (I&I NSW and CSU) 3 Primary Industries Innovation Centre, UNE De Li Liu 1,2 and Bob Martin 3

11. NSW wheat belt South-West (Southern plains) North-East (Northern slopes) South-East (Southern slopes) North-West (Northern plains)

13. Averaged: -20 days Averaged: -24 days Averaged: -28 days Averaged: -24 days Changes in days to flowering for spring wheat sown on 15 April over NSW four regions

14. Changes in days to flowering of spring wheat in NSW 7 days shorter

15. 2030 2050 2070 2090 15 Feb 1 Mar 1 Apr 1 May 1 Jun Changes in days to flowering for winter wheat in the NSW wheat belt Current sowing window

16. Changes in days to flowering of winter wheat in NSW  7 days

17. Changes in days to vernalisation inducted (completion) , winter genotype 2030 2050 2070 2090 15 Feb 1 Mar 1 Apr 1 May 1 Jun

18. Changes in days to vernalisation inducted (completion), winter wheat sown in NSW

19. Changes in no. of frost days at flowering Spring wheat Winter wheat Fewer frost days for both genotypes

20. Changes in no. of hot days at flowering for spring wheat sown in NSW Increased hot days in later sowing and later years South East -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 12-Apr 19-Apr 26-Apr 3-May 10-May 17-May 24-May 31-May 7-Jun 14-Jun 21-Jun 28-Jun 5-Jul 12-Jul 19-Jul 26-Jul 2-Aug 9-Aug 16-Aug Sowing dates Change in no of hot days at flowering 2030 2050 2070 2090

21. Changes in no. of hot days at grain filling, spring wheat sowing in NSW Reduced hot days at grain filling North West -3 -2 -1 0 12-Apr 19-Apr 26-Apr 3-May 10-May 17-May 24-May 31-May 7-Jun 14-Jun Sowing dates Change in no of hot days at grain filling 2030 2050 2070 2090 North East -3 -2 -1 0 12-Apr 19-Apr 26-Apr 3-May 10-May 17-May 24-May 31-May 7-Jun 14-Jun Sowing dates Change in no of hot days at grain filling 2030 2050 2070 2090 South West -3 -2 -1 0 12-Apr 19-Apr 26-Apr 3-May 10-May 17-May 24-May 31-May 7-Jun 14-Jun Sowing dates Change in no of hot days at grain filling 2030 2050 2070 2090 South East -3 -2 -1 0 12-Apr 19-Apr 26-Apr 3-May 10-May 17-May 24-May 31-May 7-Jun 14-Jun Sowing dates Change in no of hot days at grain filling 2030 2050 2070 2090

22. Changes in no. of hot days at flowering for winter wheat sown in NSW Increased hot days in later sowing and later years in North west

23. Changes in no. of hot days at grain filling for winter wheat sown in NSW Increased hot days at grain filling in North west after 2030

24. Function of last plant-able year for spring wheat as a function of critical advanced days to flowering and critical date for acceptable risks/yield (CDAR) North west plains South east slopes North east slopes South west plains

27. Thanks!