Resilience surfaces for pasture production under climate change scenarios - Brendan Cullen

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Resilience surfaces for pasture production under climate change scenarios Brendan Cullen & Richard Eckard Department of Agriculture and Food Systems University of Melbourne

Overview ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Climate change projections for southern Aust. ,[object Object],[object Object],Source: Climate Change in Australia. Technical Report 2007 Year Temperature (°C) Rainfall (%) CO 2 conc (ppm) 2030 1.0 (0.6-1.5) -3 (-10 to 0) ≈ 440 2050 2.2 (1.5-2.8) -8 (-20 to +10) ≈ 550 2070 3.4 (2.2-5.0) -10 (-30 to +10) ≈ 710

[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Approach to modelling climate change impacts

Annual pasture growth in warmer & drier climates Warmer, Higher CO 2 Drier 1971-2000

Annual pasture growth in warmer & drier climates Warmer, Higher CO 2 Drier 1971-2000 2030 2050 2070

Growth rates under warmer and drier climates Historical climate +1°C, -10% rain +2°C, -20% rain +3°C, -30% rain Higher winter production Contracted Spring Hamilton – perennial ryegrass, subclover

Adaptation to warmer and drier climates ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],C 4 grasses, like kikuyu, will become more productive as the climate warms.

Limitations of approach ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Conclusions ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

© Copyright The University of Melbourne 2008 Brendan Cullen [email_address] Department of Agriculture and Food Systems

Ellinbank pasture production in a temperate climate Warmer Drier 1971-2000

Elliott pasture production in a cool temperate climate Warmer Drier 1971-2000

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Concise Oxford Dictionary defines Resilience as recoiling; springing back; resuming its original shape after bending, stretching, compression etc. With five components of crop production - space, water, energy, light, nutrients- limiting, there are biotic and abiotic stresses on crops to perform at thresh hold inputs yielding optimum output. Droughts and floods, extreme cold and heat waves, forest fires, landslides and mudslips, icestorms, duststorms, hailstorms, thunder clouds associated with lightening and sea level rise are throwing new challenges to farmers and farming. This dangerously narrow level of food base prompts to widen the base of grains, vegetables, fruits, spices, industrial crops, mushrooms and aromatic plants. The emphasis was so far on terrestrial plants, forest plants and lesser on aquatic and lower plants. The aquatic plants- fresh water, brackish water, marine- were not much explored for edible use except by Chinese, Japanese and S.E. Asian nations. Halophytes, ferns and sea weeds are so far climate resilient. The Indo-Burmese Centre of origin (Hindustan centre including North East) is abode of several plants of possible vegetable, fruit and spice values. Eighty thousand plants are reported to be of possible use, about 30,000 plants are found edible in nature and approximately 7,000 plants are cultivated by mankind at one time or another, of which 158 plants are grown by man at some point of time. Among these, 30 crops provide world’s food and only 10 crops supply 75% of the world’s food budget. Out of these only three crops-rice, wheat, maize provide 60% of the world’s food requirement.This dangerously narrow level of food base prompts to widen the base of grains, vegetables, fruits, spices, industrial crops medicinal plants, mushrooms, plantation crops, pulses, fibre crops, oil seeds and aromatic plants.The emphasis so far was more on terrestrial plants, forest plants and lesser on lower plants like lichens, micro algae, fungi and bryophytes. The aquatic plants-fresh, brackish, marine water were not much explored for edible use except by Chinese and Japanese.The food base of people in South East Asia is partly on cacti (dragon fruit), micro-algae (azola) and several leaf vegetables unlike in India.Halophytes, bryophytes, ferns and sea weeds are so far climate resilient and require lesser fresh water and energy. The Indo-Burmese Centre of origin (Hindustan centre including North East) is abode of several plants of possible vegetable, fruit, industrial, energy and spicy value. The projected climate resilient crops are edible chasmophytes, brahmakamal, tropical tuber crops, herbs like broad dhaniya (Burmese coriander) and black caraway, kale, ornamental gingers, speciality mushrooms and leafy vegetables of Mizoram unexploited and underutilized in the main land.

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