The document summarizes research on land cover and land use changes in Banyumas, Central Java between 1990 and 2007 using remote sensing data and GIS analysis. The following key findings are reported: 1) Deforestation rates were approximately 9,300 hectares per year, with over 90% of the original 170,000 hectare forest area being converted mainly to paddy fields, settlements, and mixed gardens. 2) Between 1990-1995, most deforestation occurred rapidly and land use shifted among classes like mixed gardens, plantations, settlements and paddy fields. 3) After 1995, mixed gardens and plantations declined steadily while settlements and paddy fields continued increasing, reaching 23.54% and

1. Microscopic View of Forestry Governance: Lesson Learnt from Banyumas, Central Java Tatsuro Sakano and Farhan Helmy SAKANO Laboratory, Department of Social Engineering School of Decision Science and Technology Tokyo Institute of Technology Presented at Workshop “ Bali Road Map in Perspective: Forestry Governance and the Role of Decision Support Systems (DSS)” Jakarta, 28 March 2008

3. Number of households in the villages surveyed The Survey was conducted with the cooperation of Dr. Slamet Roshandy and his students in 2006

4. Primary occupation of household

5. Primary occupation class

6. Living location

8. Demand for community management Question: Who do you think should own the management right ?

10. Job dummy (Farmer = 1) Demand for community management Living location (downstream = 1) (middle stream = 2) (upstream = 3) Community efficacy to sustainable forest management Perceived seriousness of deforestation + Causal Model of Demand for Community Forest Management + + + + +

11. Community efficacy to sustainable forest management Question: Do you think transfer of ownership from SFC to Villager/local community might lead to sustainable forest management ?

12. Perceived seriousness of deforestation Question:What do you think the level of deforestation in your area ?

13. Job dummy (Farmer = 1) Demand for community management Living location (downstream = 1) (middle stream = 2) (upstream = 3) Community efficacy to sustainable forest management Perceived seriousness of deforestation 0.289*** Result of Path analysis 0.112* -0.169*** Significance probability p<0.01:***, p<0.05:**, p<0.10:* -0.058 0.192*** 0.152*** 0.205*** 0.374*** -0.070 CFI=0.976 TLI=0.780 RMSEA=0.077 all sample (N=502) R-square=0.123 R-square=0.137 R-square=0.023 R-square=0.087

15. Structure of Social Trust :Factor analysis on 14 types of people

16. Factor analysis: trust to 6 types of people

17. Job dummy (Farmer = 1) Demand for community management Living location (downstream = 1) (middle stream = 2) (upstream = 3) Community efficacy to sustainable forest management Perceived seriousness of deforestation 0.347*** 0.181* -0.418*** Significance probability p<0.01:***, p<0.05:**, p<0.10:* -0.029 0.174** 0.051 0.223** 0.311*** -0.150* CFI=0.959 TLI=0.633 RMSEA=0.110 R-square=0.306 R-square=0.115 R-square=0.003 R-square=0.083 Path Analysis in 2groups Group: High government trust (N=219)

18. Job dummy (Farmer = 1) Demand for community management Living location (downstream = 1) (middle stream = 2) (upstream = 3) Community efficacy to sustainable forest management Perceived seriousness of deforestation 0.324*** 0.147 -0.065 Significance probability p<0.01:***, p<0.05:**, p<0.10:* 0.000 0.102 0.226*** 0.244*** 0.500*** -0.046 CFI=0.959 TLI=0.633 RMSEA=0.110 R-square=0.134 R-square=0.242 R-square=0.051 R-square=0.081 Path Analysis in 2groups Group: Low government trust (N=234)

19. Job dummy (Farmer = 1) Demand for community management Living location (downstream = 1) (middle stream = 2) (upstream = 3) Community efficacy to sustainable forest management Perceived seriousness of deforestation 0.312*** 0.184** -0.313*** Significance probability p<0.01:***, p<0.05:**, p<0.10:* -0.041 0.168** 0.102 0.262*** 0.310*** -0.101 CFI=0.971 TLI=0.738 RMSEA=0.089 R-square=0.218 R-square=0.100 R-square=0.010 R-square=0.105 Path Analysis in 2groups Group: High community trust (N=277)

20. Job dummy (Farmer = 1) Demand for community management Living location (downstream = 1) (middle stream = 2) (upstream = 3) Community efficacy to sustainable forest management Perceived seriousness of deforestation 0.368*** 0.086 -0.063 Significance probability p<0.01:***, p<0.05:**, p<0.10:* 0.022 0.103 0.172* 0.192** 0.548*** -0.033 CFI=0.971 TLI=0.738 RMSEA=0.089 R-square=0.146 R-square=0.295 R-square=0.029 R-square=0.058 Path Analysis in 2groups Group: Low community trust (N=176)

25. 1990 1995 2000 2005 2007 The Screenshots of Land Cover/Use Changes in Banyumas Region (1990-2007)

26. Finding (1): Deforestation and Land Use Changes (1990-2007) (1). In 1990-2007, deforestation rate is about 9,300 Ha./year . From the total of 170,000ha forest area , More than 90% of the area has been converted to various land uses. The remaining forest area is about 1.2% (12,000 Ha.) (2). Predominant types of land use changes area are paddy field , settlement , and mix garden . (3). Land use conversion/changes are unevenly distributed in the region . In some of the north part (Tegal and Brebes districts) and some part of the South ( Purbalingga and Cilacap districts ) of is higher than that of in the south. This may indicates that in some part the north and some part of the extensive land conversion was increasingly occurred as a result of the growing manufacturing industries and supporting infrastructure in the region and surroundings. However, in some part of the areas ( Purbalingga, Banjarnegara and Brebes ) were kept unchanged (both west and east areas) as agriculture production areas (mix garden, plantation and paddy field). This may indicates that the south areas were depended on agriculture based industry . (4). The slightly slower changes is observed in some areas, especially in steep sloping land that may difficult to reach and only suitable for certain crops production. Land Cover Class 1990 1995 *) 2000 2005 2007*) Area (Ha.) % Area (Ha.) % Area (Ha.) % Area (Ha.) % Area (Ha.) % Nature Forest 49,406.889 5.14% 39,117.067 4.07% 18,913.105 1.97% 2,627.852 0.27% 11,950.632 1.24% Dryland Forest 120,767.558 12.56% NA NA 5,376.267 0.56% 9,333.231 0.97% NA NA Forest 170,174.447 17.70% 39,117.067 4.07% 24,289 2.53% 11,961.083 1.24% 11,950.632 1.24% Mix Garden 163,617.994 17.01% 88,449.999 9.20% 59,595.198 6.20% 107,034.247 11.13% 204,390.092 21.25% Plantation 107,374.778 11.17% 284,588.738 29.59% 253,092.282 26.32% 132,629.797 13.79% 7,544.543 0.78% Open Field 58,435.748 6.08% 5,647.748 0.59% 25,149.890 2.62% 21,903.911 2.28% 5,644.524 0.59% Mangrove 10,145.354 1.05% 0.000 0.00% 771.948 0.08% 217.433 0.02% 198.671 0.02% Settlement 6,014.719 0.63% 133,629.000 13.90% 168,793.504 17.55% 194,592.612 20.23% 226,424.492 23.54% Swamp 11,512.354 1.20% 11,512.354 1.20% 6,544.894 0.68% 6,598.743 0.69% 4,835.511 0.50% Paddy Field 71,370.598 7.42% 223,755.920 23.27% 285,018.267 29.64% 414,682.359 43.12% 461,568.968 48.00% Brushwood 97,197.730 10.11% 43,285.625 4.50% 19,851.498 2.06% 5,847.352 0.61% 2,686.644 0.28% Fishpond 20,981.837 2.18% 11,631.078 1.21% 33,161.142 3.45% 19,154.993 1.99% 11,473.253 1.19% Dry. Agriculture 231,696.754 24.09% 107,060.596 11.13% 70,389.573 7.32% 33,025.328 3.43% 9,624.018 1.00% Water Body 13,163.417 1.37% 13,007.605 1.35% 15,028.162 1.56% 14,037.872 1.46% 15,344.382 1.60% non-Forest 791,511.283 82.30% 922,568.663 95.93% 937,396.358 97.47% 949,724.647 98.76% 949,735.098 98.76% Total 961,685.730 100.00% 961,685.730 100.00% 961,685.730 100.00% 961,685.730 100.00% 961,685.730 100.00%

27. Finding (2) Trend of Land Use Change Pattern (1). In the period of 1990-1995 deforestation is hugely occurred, and has converted more than 80% of forest area and is subsequently followed by land use exchange/shifting among different classes, mainly increasing of mix garden and plantation, settlement and paddy field areas. But, it is decreasing in dry land agriculture area. (2). From 1995 onward, the trend of mix garden and plantation and dry-land agriculture changes are steadily declining. However, settlement and paddy field are still continues to increase, reaching at 23.54% and 48% respectively in 2007 . (3). The rate of change of mix garden and plantation is lower than that of dry land agriculture where closed to the paddy field and settlement areas. This may indicates that land use changes in flat areas most likely occurred as a result of settlement and paddy field expansion. They may strong correlation between land uses, physical constraints as well as other factors/driving force (economy, policy, market access, ownerships, etc.). (4). It seems that since 2005 deforestation is likely to stop and reach stability .

28. Finding (3) Trend of Land Use Changes in Protection and Conservation Areas (1). Since 1990, more than 40% of the total of forest in protection and conservation areas (18,000 Ha) has been encroached and converted into mix garden, plantation, paddy field, and settlement(30%, 7,024 Ha). (2). The predominant land uses are paddy field and mix garden, that steadily increasing since 1995 .

33. Proposed Outline of Further Research Themes and Decision Support Systems (DSS) Land Use Changes Ecosystem Technology Economy Social Capital Institutional Change Wealth Production System Spatial Dynamics On-going research activities