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1. Climate Change
The physical science
basis, estimates and the new
climate dice

3. Main Points
• The report: (1) describes progress in
understanding of the human and natural drivers
of climate change; (2) observed climate
change, climate processes and attribution; (3)
and estimates of projected future climate
change.
• Changes in the atmospheric abundance of
greenhouse gases and aerosols, in solar radiation
and in land surface properties alter the energy
balance of the climate system.  These changes
are expressed in terms of radiative forcing.

4. • Global atmospheric concentrations of
CO2, CH4, N2O have increased evidently as a
result of human activities since 1750.
• Increase in carbon CO2 concentration  fossil
fuel use and land use change.
• The global atmospheric concentration of CO2
has increased from a pre-industrial value of
about 280 ppm to 379 ppm in 2005 (exceeding
by far the natural range over the last 650,000
years - 180 to 300 ppm).

5. • Increase in carbon CH4 concentration 
agriculture.
• The global atmospheric concentration of CH4 has
increased from a pre-industrial value of about 715
ppb to 1774 ppb in 2005 (exceeding by far the
natural range of the last 650,000 years - 320 to 790
ppb).
• The combined radiative forcing due to increases in
of CO2, CH4, N2O is +2.30 [+2.07 to +2.53] W m–
2, and its rate of increase during the industrial era is
very likely (90%) to have been unprecedented in
more than 10,000 years.

6. • Anthropogenic contributions to aerosols
together produce a cooling effect, with a total
direct radiative forcing of –0.5 [–0.9 to –0.1] W
m–2 and an indirect cloud albedo forcing of –
0.7 [–1.8 to –0.3] W m–2.
• Changes in solar irradiance since 1750 are
estimated to cause a radiative forcing of +0.12 W
m–2.
• Eleven of the last twelve years (1995–2006) rank
among the 12 warmest years in the instrumental
record of global surface temperature (since
1850).

8. Most of the observed increase in global average
temperatures since the mid-20th century is very
likely due to the observed increase in
anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.

9. • Since 1961 the average temperature of the global
ocean has increased to depths of at least 3000 m
and the ocean has been absorbing more than
80% of the heat added to the climate system.
• New data since the TAR show that losses from
the ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica have
very likely contributed to sea level rise over 1993
to 2003: Global average sea level rose at an
average rate of 1.8 mm per year over 1961 to
2003. The rate was faster over 1993 to 2003:
about 3.1 mm per year. The total 20th-century
rise is estimated to be 0.17 m.

10. • Cold days, cold nights and frost have become
less frequent in the last 50 years, while hot
days, hot nights and heat waves have become
more frequent.
• Anthropogenic warming and sea level rise would
continue for centuries due to the time scales
associated with climate processes and
feedbacks, even if greenhouse gas
concentrations were to be stabilised.
• Both past and future anthropogenic carbon
dioxide emissions will continue to contribute to
warming and sea level rise for more than a
millennium, due to the time scales required for
removal of this gas from the atmosphere.

11. • Average arctic temperatures increased at almost
twice the global average rate in the past 100
years.
• The best estimate for the low scenario (B1) is
1.8°C (likely range is 1.1°C to 2.9°C), and the best
estimate for the high scenario (A1FI) is 4.0°C
(likely range is 2.4°C to 6.4°C).
• Warming is expected to be greatest over land
and at most high northern latitudes, and least
over the Southern Ocean and parts of the North
Atlantic Ocean.
• It is very likely that hot extremes, heat waves
and heavy precipitation events will continue to
become more frequent.

12. • If radiative forcing were to be stabilised in 2100 at
A1B levels, thermal expansion alone would lead to
0.3 to 0.8 m of sea level rise by 2300. Thermal
expansion would continue for many centuries, due
to the time required to transport heat into the deep
ocean.
• Contraction of the Greenland Ice Sheet is projected
to continue to contribute to sea level rise after 2100.
Current models suggest that ice mass losses increase
with temperature more rapidly than gains due to
precipitation and that the surface mass balance
becomes negative at a global average warming
(relative to pre-industrial values) in excess of 1.9°C
to 4.6°C.
• Negative surface mass balance = complete
elimination of the Greenland Ice Sheet and sea level
rise of about 7m.

13. Different Scenarios

14. How the report was made
• Measurements of greenhouse gases were shown
from ice cores (symbols with different colours
for different studies) and atmospheric samples
(red lines).
• Since the TAR, progress in understanding how
climate is changing in space and in time has
been gained through improvements and
extensions of numerous datasets and data
analyses, broader geographical coverage, better
understanding of uncertainties, and a wider
variety of measurements.

15. • Increasingly comprehensive observations are
available for glaciers and snow cover since the
1960s, and for sea level and ice sheets since
about the past decade.
• Sea level estimates are based on improved
satellite and in situ data now available.
• Palaeoclimatic information supports the
interpretation that the warmth of the last half
century is unusual in at least the previous 1,300
years.

16. Uncertainty
• Expressions such as “It is very likely”, “very high
confidence”, etc.
• It is very likely (90%) that the observed increase
in methane concentration is due to
anthropogenic activities, predominantly
agriculture and fossil fuel use, but relative
contributions from different source types are not
well determined.
• Aerosols forces remain the dominant
uncertainty in radiative forcing.
• Data still limited in some regions.

17. • Climate-carbon cycle coupling is expected to add
carbon dioxide to the atmosphere as the climate
system warms, but the magnitude of this
feedback is uncertain. This increases the
uncertainty in the trajectory of carbon dioxide
emissions required to achieve a particular
stabilization level of atmospheric carbon dioxide
concentration
• Uncertainties in local forcings and feedbacks
make it difficult to estimate the contribution of
greenhouse gas increases to observed small-
scale temperature changes.

18. • Palaeoclimatic studies use changes in
climatically sensitive indicators to infer past
changes in global climate on time scales ranging
from decades to millions of years.  Uncertainty
increases with time into past.
• Models used to date do not include uncertainties
in climate-carbon cycle feedback nor do they
include the full effects of changes in ice sheet
flow, because a basis in published literature is
lacking.

19. • Precipitation is highly variable spatially and
temporally, and data are limited in some
regions.
• Dynamical processes related to ice flow not
included in current models but suggested by
recent observations could increase the
vulnerability of the ice sheets to
warming, increasing future sea level rise.
Understanding of these processes is limited and
there is no consensus on their magnitude.

20. Certainty
• Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is
now evident from observations of increases in global
average air and ocean temperatures, widespread
melting of snow and ice, and rising global average
sea level.
• Since IPCC’s first report in 1990, assessed
projections have suggested global average
temperature increases between about 0.15°C and
0.3°C per decade for 1990 to 2005. This can now be
compared with observed values of about 0.2°C per
decade, strengthening confidence in near-term
projections.

22. Main Points
• Increasing extremity of heat waves and the area
covered by extreme events is caused by global
warming.
• The anomalous warmth of 2012, even though its
extremity is caused by global warming, should
not be assumed to represent a new norm.
Climate will continue to be variable and there is
still a significant chance of a season being cooler
than the long-term average.

23. • 1930s: There are almost no areas that achieve
+3-sigma heat, if the standard deviation (σ or
"sigma") is calculated for the 1931-1980 base
period.
• 2006-2011: have 10% of the land area with
anomalies exceeding +3σ for 1931-1980
standard deviations. (12% for 1951-1980).
• Temperature variability has increased in recent
decades. The summers of 2008 and 2009 were
unusually cool in parts of the United States.
• Only two of the past 15 summers have been
cooler than either the 1931-1980 or 1951-1980
average.

24. Changes in the “bell curve”

25. • If dice are used to represent the chances of a
cold, near-average, and hot season, two sides of
a die would be blue, two sides white, and two
sides red for the base period. The observed
change in the frequency of temperature
anomalies in recent years yields about one-half
of a side blue for cold, one side white for near
average, four sides red for hot, and one-half side
red-brown for extremely hot.
• The most important observed climate change is
the appearance of this new category of extreme
heat, deviations more than +3σ, which
practically did not occur in the base period.

26. Uncertainty
• Choice of 1951-1980 as a base period: (1) is prior to
the large warming of the past few decades; (2) the
period has the best global data coverage and can
best characterize climate variability; (3) is the base
period used by the National Weather Service and
other researchers (easier to compare); (4) and it is
recent enough for many people to remember what
the climate was like.
• The 1930s "dust bowl" in the U.S. was probably
related to the combination of Pacific Ocean
temperature patterns and exacerbation of the
drought via effects of human-made plowing.

27. Conclusion
• Exceptional heat (relative to climatology, i.e., the
long-term average) must now be expected to
occur over an area of the order of 10 percent of
the land.
• The location of the extreme anomalies in any
given year depends upon weather patterns, and
is, to a significant degree, a crap shoot.
• Such meteorological situations have always
occurred, but it is because of global warming
that extreme conditions have become so much
more pervasive.

29. Main Points
• Hansen et al. show that the thermal climate is
tangibly different today compared with what it was
like as recently as the mid to late 20th century: we
are now more than 10-fold as likely to endure an
extremely hot summer as we were in the decades
1951–1980.
• The sheer number and magnitude of extremes of
temperature are consistent with a warmer world
that has, with virtual certainty, been linked to
human-induced increases in atmospheric
greenhouse gases and, to a lesser extent, other
human activities

30. • Asymmetrical nature of the expansion of the
range of temperature anomalies: Could this
reflect some subtle but important differences
from normality, or is it a function of an increase
in variability and mean still within a normal
distribution?
• Winter: high number of significantly negatively
skewed seasonal temperatures. Less impact of
greenhouse gases (snow reinforce cold
conditions).
• Summer: high number of significantly positively
skewed seasonal temperatures.

31. • Hansen et al. states that recent extreme
temperature anomalies, like those in 2011
(USA), 2010 (Russia), and 2003 (France), would
not have occurred without global warming.
• Observational data reveal significant increases in
several other types of extremes, some of them
expected to occur in a warming world.
• There’s no statistically significant changes in
land-falling hurricanes or tropical storm wind
speeds in the Climate Extremes Index.

32. • In 2011, a record 55% of the United States was
affected by either too much or too little water. It
is consistent with climate model projections of
drier conditions in the southwestern United
States and wetter conditions in the northern
United States as greenhouse gases continue to
increase.
• The first seven months of 2012 have registered
the highest Climate Extremes Index (without
hurricanes) ever observed.
• The national average temperature has been
above average each month for 14 consecutive
months through July 2012.  This is expected to
occur only once in about 500,000 years.

33. • In 2011, a record 55% of the United States was
affected by either too much or too little water. It
is consistent with climate model projections of
drier conditions in the southwestern United
States and wetter conditions in the northern
United States as greenhouse gases continue to
increase.
• The first seven months of 2012 have registered
the highest Climate Extremes Index (without
hurricanes) ever observed.
• The national average temperature has been
above average each month for 14 consecutive
months through July 2012.  This is expected to
occur only once in about 500,000 years.

34. Uncertainty
• More work is needed to understand this
potentially important characteristic of the
climate system better  Planning and
adaptation implications, particularly if this
observed change is part of the climate’s response
to sustained changes in atmospheric
composition.
• Identify and remove any time-dependent biases
from the climate record.

35. Conclusion
• We are no longer waiting for evidence of global
warming. It is clearly here now, affecting a wide
variety of weather and climate events, and it will
continue to grow as we burn more fossil fuel
(Hansen et al.).
• Some issues need further clarity, such as the
details of how the distribution of extreme events
will change.

37. • What is your opinion about the reports? Did
they convince you that climate change is a
threat?
• What do you think are the weak points in the
texts?
• Uncertainty and politics: If someone says that is
very likely (90%) that given soda to your
children would kill them in the mid-term, what
would you do? Would you still give it to they and
wait for more evidence?