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Moving Panacea Forward
Team KKS
Kian Sin
Sean Tan
Siswanto Tang
Presentation Agenda
The team will present the way forward for Panacea

   Introduction
   • Executive Summary
   • Key Objectives


   Next Steps
   • ESS Framework
   • Education & Industrialisation
   • SOE Development
   • SME Creation

   Conclusion
   • Summary of Recommendations
   • Implementation Timeline
   • Appendix
Executive Summary

I. We should focus on training and developing its
labor first before focusing on services

II. State-owned enterprises are developed to
accelerate industrialization in three identified
industries and to reduce reliance on FDI

III. As the labor force becomes increasingly skilled and
educated, we will start to focus on services and foster
innovation through providing avenues for local
entrepreneurship
Key Challenges
Panacea faces key challenges in meeting its targets

                         Key Challenges
Current Situation                                 2030 Targets
• Contributions of                          • Contributions of services
                         Lack of skilled
  services to GDP –                           to GDP - 70%
                         labour
  25%
                                            • Exports of services to
• Exports of high-tech   Lack of              25% of overall exports
  products & services    entrepreneurship
  - 20.2%                spirit and         • TFP to have increased by
                         innovation           5% every decade
• Limited success of
  initiatives launched                      • Development of key
  by various             Inadequate soft      sectors in manufacturing
  ministries             infrastructure       and services
Assessing Targets
Panacea should reassess its targets
Both ways of reaching the target are unsustainable

                     Dramatic increase                     •   Unsustainable growth
  Share of                                  Share of           in low value-added
                        in services
 services to                               services to         services
   GDP:                                      GDP:
    25%               Downsizing non-         70%          •   Removal of agricultural
                       related sectors                         & manufacturing
                                                               sectors

           Initial Projections            Selected Asian Economies (Services as % of GDP)


               Annual GDP
                 growth of
                approx. 6%



            12.7% annual
           growth in GDP
             of services
                                         1980                                            2010

                                                                                                5
ESS Framework 2013
    The team recommends a holistic progressive framework approach which aims to build the
    foundation, drive growth, and sustain results


                                                                               Justifications

     Key Challenges                        Sustaining    SME       - Sustaining innovations with less
                                            Results                  state funding
                                                        Creation
                                                                   - Increasing TFP through R&D
   Lack of                                                          funding
    skilled labour


   Lack of                                                             - Develop indigenous
                                 Driving            SOE                   capability in key
    entrepreneurs                Growth
                                                 Development              industries
    hip spirit and
    innovation                                                          - Reduced reliance on FDI



   Inadequate
                        Foundation                                            - Laying foundations
    soft                                                                        for growth and
    infrastructure       Building               Education &                     innovation
                                              Industrialisation               - Concentrate
                                                                                industry synergies
Recommendations

                    Laying the foundations for a skilled and
                    innovative workforce
  Education &
Industrialisation   Concentrating labor force through
                    manufacturing centers to gain technical expertise


                    Undertaking long-term investments which the
                    private sectors will not undertake
SOE Development
                    Accelerating developments into industries with
                    high growth potential


                    Fostering sustainable local innovations and
                    entrepreneurship
 SME Creation
                    Moving into high value-added service industries
                    whilst leveraging on skilled workforce
Education & Industralisation

                                                                                           Rationale
                                Universities
                                 with more                                     Promotes logical and systematical
                               emphasis on                                     thinking for problem solving and
                               engineering,
                              science, coding                                  innovation


                                                                               Breaks down language barriers

Primary schools
                                                           All lessons to be
 in rural areas
                                                               taught in
 with focus on
                                                                English
                                                                               Provides impetus for research and
Science & Math
                                                                               innovation
                             Education                                         Grooming the future leaders of
                                                                               Panacea



                                                                               Shifts the labour force to higher
                                                                               value-adding industries by
            Government-led
                research
                                                  Overseas                     equipping technical skills
                                                Scholarships
              laboratories
Education & Industralisation

                                                                                        Rationale
                             Partnerships
                             with industry                                  Achieve cluster synergy with
                              experts and                                   proximity to research institutes and
                             co-location of                                 universities
                              universities


                                                                            Assimilate the required technological
                                                                            expertise and manpower
Joint-venture
                                                               Industrial
 with foreign
                                                                policies
 companies
                                                                            Lower cost, faster start-ups, reduced
                                                                            cost of operations
                          Industrialisation
                                                                            Provide motivation for citizens to
                                                                            move into cities



                                                                            Nudge economy up the value chain,
           Focus on ICT
               and                            Infrastructure                and a services-driven one
           professional                       development
             services
Recommendations

                    Laying the foundations for a skilled and
                    innovative workforce
  Education &
Industrialisation   Concentrating labor force through
                    manufacturing centers to gain technical expertise


                    Undertaking long-term investments which the
                    private sectors will not undertake
SOE Development
                    Accelerating developments into industries with
                    high growth potential


                    Fostering sustainable local innovations and
                    entrepreneurship
 SME Creation
                    Moving into high value-added service industries
                    whilst leveraging on skilled workforce
SOE Development

                                                                               Rationale
                        Independent
                         supervisory                              Reduce agency costs
                           boards
                                                                  To reiterate privatization pressures


                                                                  Higher overseas market potential
   CEO-
                                                      Export-     Internationalisation
 sponsored
                                                     orientated
management
                                                        focus     Easier comparison for international KPIs
   teams
                          SOE
                                                                  Focus on high potential areas
                       Development
                                                                  Emphasize urgency and prevent
                                                                  bureaucratic inertia


                                                                  Leverage upon expertise acquired
                                                                  from clusters
        Grants given                    Focus on                  Undertake local ICT infrastructure
          for R&D                       ICT and                   development
           efforts                     electronics
                                                                  Move towards services economy
Recommendations

                    Laying the foundations for a skilled and
                    innovative workforce
  Education &
Industrialisation   Concentrating labor force through
                    manufacturing centers to gain technical expertise


                    Undertaking long-term investments which the
                    private sectors will not undertake
SOE Development
                    Accelerating developments into industries with
                    high growth potential


                    Fostering sustainable local innovations and
                    entrepreneurship
 SME Creation
                    Moving into high value-added service industries
                    whilst leveraging on skilled workforce
SME Creation

                                                           Rationale
                  Grants given
                    for R&D
                   efforts and                 Promote indigenous TFP growth
                    services
                                               Move towards services economy

                                               Creates risk-embracing culture


                                               Matches ideas, entrepreneurs and
 Enforcement                                   funds together
     and
 monitoring of
                  SME              Ideas       Provides a market of meeting
                                 Marketplace   suppliers and customers for ideas
    IP and
 investor laws
                 Creation
                                               Promotes R&D efforts as it promises
                                               adequate rewards for effort

                                               Safeguard interests of investors

                    Attract
                  alternative                  Reduce burden on state funding
                   funding
                  mechanisms
                                               Tap on expertise of venture capitalists
Establishment of Neo-Panacea
    Development Council (NPDC)
                                                     Neo-Panacea Development Council (NPDC)


                                       Chairman                     Cabinet Secretary


                                       Members

                                            Minister of Commerce                  Minister of Public Works

                                            Minister of Education              Minister of Trade & Investment
                      Planning Level




                                              Minister of Labor                         Ministry of Finance

                                        Minister of Social and Welfare                 Industry Leaders
                                                                                    (5 CEOs from targeted
                                                                                          industries)
                                           Mayor for Minas Tirith                       Mayor for Gondolin



        Rationale                                            Implementation                                             Monitoring
                                                                                                                •   Gather feedback on
•   No conflict of interest                            • Streamline KPI
                                                                                                                    results
•   Reduce excessive                                   • One-stop centre for
                                                                                                                •   Yearly performance
    bureaucracy                                          business permits
                                                                                                                    review
•   Gain commitment to ESS                             • Connection to high-
                                                                                                                •   Bonuses contingent on
    Framework                                            speed ICT infrastructure
                                                                                                                    performance
Risk Mitigation

Risks                 Mitigation

                     Inculcate and encourage informal networks to actualise benefits of
Lack of companies
                      industry clusters
   in industry
                     Establish a cluster management body to increase marketing efforts and
     clusters
                      increase awareness of clusters


                     Establishment of an advisory committee to provide expertise for SOE
 Failure of SOE      Reduce hierarchical levels and bureaucratic inertia through micro-
   corporate          management from CEO-managed teams
  performance        Goods to be exported for objective comparison of financial results



                     Entrench positive network effects of home clusters
Competition from     Consider collaborative efforts in sector specialisation
 other countries
Funding Mechanism

                                                          Breakdown of Total Spending (in
   Public Funding               Private Funding                   Million US$)
       Means                         Means                            Public   Private

                                                                6%
                                                                                       25%
Corporate and income
                               Infrastructure bonds
         tax
                               Social impact bonds              94%
   Import duties
                                Venture capitalists                                    75%
  Sovereign funds
                                  Private Equity
    investments

                                                              2013-2020           2020 - 2030


Funding volumes (in
                       2013              2020         2025                     2030
US$ million)
Public                 3,604            3,935         4,287                    5,111
Private                100               420          1,450                    1,550
Total Funding          3,704            4,355         5,737                    6,661
Panacea in 2030

          Vision of ESS Framework                                                                 Projected GDP Split

                                A conductive and risk-embracing                    Agriculture   Primary      Secondary    Services       Others
                                culture and environment for local
                                                                                       5%                     4%                     3%
                                        entrepreneurship
                                                                                       25%                   31%                    41%
                                                                                       15%
                                       New challengers in the global                                         24%
                                              marketplace                              30%                                          28%
                                                                                                             23%
                                                                                                                                    18%
                                                                                       25%                   18%                     9%
                                                  Highly educated
                                               workforce with a strong                 2013                  2020F                  2030F
                                              foundation in Science and
                                                       Math.


Key Performance Indicators      2011       2020 (Est.)   2030 (Est.)      Key Performance Indicators          2011    2020 (Est.)     2030 (Est.)
                        SME Indicators                                                              Economic Indicators

SME Contribution to GDP (%)     36.2           38            45           GDP growth (%)                       4.5        5.5               6.5
                                                                          TFP growth (annual %)                N.A.       5.0               5.5
                       Social Indicators
                                                                                                  Innovation Indicators
Population below poverty line   28.9           25            20
                                                                          Exports of High-tech Products (%
                       Budget Indicators                                                                      20.2        23                36
                                                                          of total exports)
Budget Surplus                  6.2           3.5           4.0           R&D Spending (% of GDP)              1.6        1.8               2.2
Panacea in 2030

          Vision of ESS Framework                                                                 Projected GDP Split

                                A conductive and risk-embracing                    Agriculture   Primary      Secondary    Services       Others
                                culture and environment for local
                                                                                       5%                     4%                     3%
                                        entrepreneurship
                                                                                       25%                   31%                    41%
                                                                                       15%
                                       New challengers in the global                                         24%
                                              marketplace                              30%                                          28%
                                                                                                             23%
                                                                                                                                    18%
                                                                                       25%                   18%                     9%
                                                  Highly educated
                                               workforce with a strong                 2013                  2020F                  2030F
                                              foundation in Science and
                                                       Math.


Key Performance Indicators      2011       2020 (Est.)   2030 (Est.)      Key Performance Indicators          2011    2020 (Est.)     2030 (Est.)
                        SME Indicators                                                              Economic Indicators

SME Contribution to GDP (%)     36.2           38            45           GDP growth (%)                       4.5        5.5               6.5
                                                                          TFP growth (annual %)                N.A.       5.0               5.5
                       Social Indicators
                                                                                                  Innovation Indicators
Population below poverty line   28.9           25            20
                                                                          Exports of High-tech Products (%
                       Budget Indicators                                                                      20.2        23                36
                                                                          of total exports)
Budget Surplus                  6.2           3.5           4.0           R&D Spending (% of GDP)              1.6        1.8               2.2
Appendix




           APPENDIX
Key Indicator Comparable

Indicator                Value                      Comparable Country
Area                     2,220,760 sq. km                   Mexico
GDP, current (US$)       US$ 728.3 billion (2011)           Turkey
GDP per Capita           US$ 1047.46 (2011)               Kyrgyzstan
Public Debt:             49.5% of GDP                     Philippines
SME Contribution to      36.2% of GDP
GDP
Population               695.3 million                  3rd in the world
Net Migration Rate       -0.05 migrant per 1000              India
                         population
Literacy Rate            76.8 of total population           Belize
Population below         28.9% (2010)                      Sri Lanka
poverty line
Distribution of income   40.1 GINI coefficient              Russia
Increased Education Spending in Panacea


                                                                                          Financial Support for Education
                                                                                                     (2013-2030)
                                                                                                 (in million US$)

                                                                                           Student Bursaries          Student Scholarships

                                                                                                                                                                  3,400

                                                                                                                                      2,400


                                                                                                      1,000                                               850
                                                                                                                          600
                                                               50          200               250


                                                                    2013                           2018                         2025                        2030


                                                                                 Additional Cumulative Construction (2013-2030)
          Major focus point for S&T universities
                                                                                      University          Vocational Schools*          Primary Schools

                                                                                                                                                                   850
                  Key Risks & Mitigations
                                                                                                                                         600
Type of Risk         Risk Probability    Mitigation

Lack of vocational   Low                 Overseas tie-up                                                     250
teachers                                                                                                                        120                 150     170
                                                                                                                         84
                                                                                 50          40      50
Low enrollments      High                Financial bursaries        7      10

                                         and scholarships
                                                                        2013                        2018                        2025                       2030

                                                                                      *Does not include 24 vocational schools planned
Funding Mechanism and Return (Education)

                                                                                        Breakdown of Educational
                                Funding     Funding
    Initiative      Cost*       (first 10   (next 10        Remarks                     Spending (in Million US$)
                                 years)      years)
                                                                                               Federal   State      Private
                                                       150 schools in 20
Universities                                                                                0
                    $1,500      Federal     Federal    years, $200
Construction                                                                                                        21%
                                                       million per school                  36%
                                                       Top 1% (500,000                                              27%
Student Bursaries    $ 50        State         -       students), $100
                                                       each                                64%                      52%
Primary School                                         50 schools per
Construction        $ 200        State       State     year, $4 million
(rural)                                                per school                       2013 - 2020              2020 - 2030
                                                       10 schools per
Vocational
                    $ 750       Federal     Private    year, $50 million    Key Performance
Schools
                                                       per school           Indicators                   2013         2020     2030
                                                       7.5 schools built
Additional
                                                       on average per
funding for         $ 800        State       State                          Literacy Rate (%)            76.8          82       93
                                                       year, $100 million
universities
                                                       per school
                                                                            Universities (#)             N.A.          20       70
                                                       1,000 students,
Student                                     Public –                        Vocational Schools (#)       N.A.          60      100
                    $ 200        State                 $0.2 million per
Scholarships                                Private
                                                       student
                                                                            School Enrolment,            N.A           10       18
Total               $ 3,500   Annually (2013 price level)                   Tertiary (% of
                                                                            population of age
 * In millions annually (USD)                                               Government-led               N.A            8       20
                                                                            research laboratories
Manufacturing clusters (HIDE Zones) to
be developed
Partnership
                                           • Focusing on
   with                  Infra-structure     electronics and
industry &
 Academia
                          Development        automotive parts

                                           • Availability of low-
              Panacea
                                             cost labor
              Industry
               Cluster
                                           • Geographical
                                             proximity to high-
                             JV with
                                             tech manufacturing
Industrial
 Policies
                              foreign        countries
                            companies
Why investment into ICT,
Electronics, and Automotive?
                ICT                        Electronics                Automotive

• ICT-driven innovation        • Growth in electronics     • CAGR of 5.5% for
  could contribute about         goes in-tandem with         vehicle assembly
  one third of GDP               ICT growth                  (2010-2017)1
  Growth1.                     • The competitive           • 83% growth will be
• ICT investment drives          nature in this industry     contributed by
  productivity growth in         requires companies to       emerging markets1
  the economy1.                  continuously develop      • Automotive industry
• Continuous growth.             innovations                 represents 8.5% of
  Projected to reach US        • Global gadgets              total value-added
  $4 T globally by 20152.        spending to reach $1 T      generated by
                                 in 20131                    manufacturing in
                                                             Europe (High Value-
                                                             add to GDP)2

1 International Institute of   1   PWC Auto Report         1   PWC Auto Report
Communications                 2   Global Edge Report      2   Alphametrics Auto Employment
2 Gartner Report
Major Phases in Industry Clusters

                                        •   HIDE Zone recognized as        •   HIDE Zone recognized as
                                            emerging world class               a world class industry
                                            industry cluster                   cluster
   •   HIDE Zone recognized as                                             •
                                        •   Cluster effects take over          World-leading innovation
       an emerging cluster                                                     flourishing in HIDE Zone
                                            to attract activities into
   •   Measurable increase in                                              •   HIDE Zone becomes a
                                            HIDE Zone
       collaboration and
                                        •   Innovation starts to take          pillar in big company
       technology transfer                                                     global R&D network
                                            place in HIDE Zone




2013          2015                               2020                                     2030
   Phase I (2013-2015)                 Phase II (2015-2020)              Phase III (2020-2030)
   •  Generate awareness, build        • Nurture existing companies      • Identify next wave of
      linkage                             in the clusters                   emerging technology in
   •  Improve regulatory               • Improve funding                    cluster
      environment in IPR                                                 • Solidify Panacea’s leading
                                          mechanism for established
   •  Create funding mechanism to
                                          companies                         position in selected industry
      develop successful home-
      grown companies                        • IPO, M&A, cross-             clusters
   •  Create organization to                      border transactions
      accelerate cluster development
      and attract activities into
      clusters
Cluster Development Initiatives

         Industrial Policies
            •    Attractive tax structure and reduced customs duties
            •    Tax holidays for setting up in industry clusters
            •    Further subsidies and supports for local JVs

            •    Interest subsidies for purchase of capital goods



                Promote partnership with industry & academia
            •    Industry & University cooperative research centers
            •    Co-funding industry and university R&D projects
            •    Develop training programs for the industry

Infrastructure Development
            •    Western Corridor of Panacea to be developed
            •    Increased infrastructure investment in the clusters
Risks and Mitigations to Cluster
Development
 Risks                      Mitigants
                             Cluster management body is
 Clusters not sustainable     established to ensure the progress
      in the future          Manage network openness to
                              business outside the cluster


 Lack of stakeholders        facilitating strong inter-
      in clusters             organisational relationships within
                              the cluster


     Lack of R&D              Enhance investments in R&D by
       Expertise               facilitating overseas tie-ups
Funding Mechanism and Return (SOE)
                                Cumulative Investment
                                  (in US$ Million)                                                                                            % of Project
                                                                                                                                    Grants
                                                                                                                                     8%                                Institutio
                   Import & Tax Subsidies          Grants            Private Funding
                                                                                                                                                                          nal
                                                                                                                                                                       Investors
    5000
                                                                                                                                                                         42%
    4000
    3000                                                                                                                   Import
                                                                                                                          Duties &
    2000
                                                                                                                            Tax
    1000                                                                                                                  Subsidie
        0                                                                                                                    s
                                                                                                                            50%
            2013         2016       2019       2022           2025         2028


Initiatives                                 2013      2014    2015      2016     2017     2018    2019    2020    2021    2022       2023     2024     2025    2026     2027     2028       2029    2030

Subsidies and reduced customs
duties (0.3*0.05*import duty)                 0.00     0.00     0.00      0.00     2.94    4.41   11.76   22.05   49.98     83.46 119.99 207.84 287.52 418.20 530.12 721.73 877.82 1066.58
Tax Holidays                                  0.00     0.00     0.00      0.00     0.30    0.44    1.18    2.21    5.02     17.42      5.61    18.75    8.27   31.73      4.72      16.97    4.72   16.97

Interest Subsidies for purchase of
capital goods (2.5% discount)                 2.50     2.75     5.42      6.92    12.92   15.08   19.17   23.00   29.58     34.25     42.08    48.67   59.58   57.17     66.25      63.67   72.08   57.00

Co-funding industry and
university R&D Projects                       1.00     1.00     2.00      2.00     4.00    4.00    5.00    5.00    6.00      6.00      7.00     7.00    8.00    8.00      9.00       9.00   10.00   10.00

Develop training programs for the
industry                                      0.50     0.50     1.00      1.00     2.00    2.00    2.50    2.50    3.00      3.00      3.50     3.50    4.00    4.00      4.50       4.50    5.00    5.00

Increased infrastructure
investment in the clusters                  100.00 100.00 200.00 200.00 300.00 300.00 300.00 300.00 200.00                 200.00 200.00 200.00 200.00 200.00 200.00 200.00 200.00 200.00


Total Outflow                               104.00 104.25 208.42 209.92 322.15 325.94 339.61 354.76 293.58                 344.13 378.18 485.75 567.37 719.10 814.59 1015.87 1169.62 1355.55
Infrastructure bonds

Targets overseas investors seeking:
1. New financial product for
   diversification
2. Safe returns, with excess returns
   dependent on usage of public
   utility

Infrastructure funded includes:
1. Roads (roadtoll booths)
2. Power plants
3. Water treatment plant
4. Airports (airport tax)
5. Ports (port services tax)

Pricing depends on product mix and
type of bond, and whether payout is
contingent on social impact reached.

Objective reporting of KPI is vital.
KPI for Cluster Development
Key Performance      2013          2020       2030            Total Capital Goods Stock ( for one cluster)
Indicators
                                                                                 FDI      Local     JV
Total SEZ (#)             7         12         17      3000.00

Joint Ventures (#)   N.A.          200        850      2000.00

                                                       1000.00
Unemployment          8.3          8.0        6.5
(%)                                                         0.00

Urbanization (%)     35.2           40         48                  2013   2016     2019     2022    2025    2028




                                              Benefits of Industry Cluster
Export
value 200 300        600      1,200 2,400 4,000 4,500 7,800 9,900 12,000 15,000 17,500 19,000 20,000
Value
add to
GDP 4     6          12       24         48     200   225      390        495    600      750      875     950     1,000
Import
Value 196 294        588      1,176 2,352 3,800 4,275 7,410 9,405 11,400 14,250 16,625 18,050 19,000
Agent of growth
                  FDI                                                 SOE                        SME

                                                    Pros:
Pros:                                                                      Cons:
                                                    1.    Strategic
1.    Quick transfer                                                       1. May be
                        Cons:                             industry
      of technology                                                           manipulated to
                        1. Over-reliance of               development
      and expertise                                                           fulfill selfish
                        GDP on FDI                        to fill demand
2.    Low costs to                                                            political goals
                        2. Loss of national               not met by
      government                                                           2. Inefficiencies
                        sovereignty                       private sector
3.    Transfer more                                                           and slackness of
                        3. Diversion of local       2.    Easy to form
      different                                                               government
                        talents to MNCs                   and effect
      (optimal)                                                               bureaucracy
                        with higher pay                   changes
      management                                                           3. No expertise or
                                                    3.    Fully
      organisational                                                          technology
                                                          internalised
      methods
                                                          profits




     •    ICT is a key strategic industry that should be internalised.
     •    Expertise to be obtained from scholars and JVs
     •    Transparent boards coupled with privatisation pressures
Agent of growth
FDI                     SOE                                               SME

      Pros:
                                                          Pros:
      1.    Strategic         Cons:                                               Cons:
                                                          1.    Long-term
            industry          1. 1. May be                                        1. Small in scale
                                                                sustainable
            development          manipulated to                                      and limited
                                                                innovations
            to fill demand       fulfill selfish                                     resources
                                                          2.    Constant
            not met by           political goals                                  2. Failure rate is
                                                                competitive
            private sector    2. Inefficiencies                                      high
                                                                pressures
      2.    Easy to form         and slackness of                                 3. Difficult to
                                                          3.    No agency
            and effect           government                                          dominate in
                                                                costs
            changes              bureaucracy                                         overseas
                                                          4.    Generates
      3.    Fully             3. No expertise or                                     markets
                                                                more
            internalised         technology
                                                                employment
            profits




           •    ICT is a key strategic industry that requires economies of scale
           •    Mandate of government to shift to sustainable innovation and driven by
                services sector
SOE Development
  Clear                                   Rationale
                             Increased
financial                   transparen
 targets                                  Pursue active participation in focus
                                 cy
                                          industries to catalyze the
                                          industrialization process and develop
                                          indigenous capability

                                          Key Characteristics
                 State-                   • No state interference or favors
                owned                     • Expected to be efficient and
              Enterprises                   profitable with clear financial
                                            targets
                                          • Export orientation ensures
 Free from                                  learning the best technology
                               Export-
  political
                               oriented
                                            overseas
interferenc
                                focus     • No protection in domestic market
     e
                                            after 5 years
Major Phases in SOE Development
                                                                                      •   SOE recognized as a
                                                                                          emerging world-class
                                                                                          company
                                                                                      •   SOE starts to have
   •   SOE develops its core
                                                                                          innovation on its own
       competitive strength                    •   SOE starts to attract private      •   SOE is seen less
   •   SOE produced the first                      capital                                government-linked (50-
       product or services by first            •   SOE starts to develop                  50%)
       phase                                       innovation



   Domestic                                  Export-focused                    Building competencies
   Nurturing
2018                                  2023                             2027                        2030 and beyond
   Phase I (2018-2023)                       Phase II (2015-2020)                   Phase III (2020-2030)
   •  Start recruitment of expertise         •  SOE starts developing               •  SOE starts developing more
      for SOE                                   products for export                    highly sophisticated products
   •  Injection of working capital           •  Gradual privatization               •  SOE invites more capital
   •  Purchase of capital goods                     •    IPO, stake sell               injection from private sectors
   •  First production starts                •  Continuously develop                •  SOE starts to develop
   •  Source of innovation:                     innovations                            proprietary technology
          •   Indigenously developed
          •   Licensing
Funding Mechanism (SOE)
                                                   SOE Funding
                                                   Source

                       Capital Goods                   Working                                        R&D Grant
                                                       Capital
                                                                          50% Co-Funding
                                                                                                                50% Co-Funding


                 Public Guaranteed                     Public Funding                            Private Funding
                 Loan
 Foreign technologies
                                                                  •     Public capital Injection follows VC funding structure and are
                                                                        conducted in stages. SOEs are eligible for further capital
                                                                        injection after fulfilling certain requirements
     Foreign Loans                      Local Banks               •     This measure reduces risk for the government

Year                       1     2      3     4        5     6     7           8        9        10       11       12 Remarks
SOE Establishment         40    80     120   200      160   120   80          40        0         0        0        0 $20m/ capital injection
                                                                                                                      15 % stake per
SOE Privatization                                     -15   -15   -15         -15      -15      -15       -15     -15 privatization

R&D Grants                                             5     5     5           5        5        10       10       10   $ 5m/ research grant
Total Govt Outlay         40    80     120   200      150   110   70          30       -10       -5       -5       -5
ICT infrastructure                                                                                                    $300 m/ year after 5th
development               10   20      100   200    250     300   300        300       300      300      300      300 year
Total Private Outlay      10   20      100   200    250     300   300        300       300      300      300      300
KPI for SOE Development
                                                       Changes in Ownership Structure
Key Performance          2013   2020   2030               Private Source       Public Source
Indicators
State-owned enterprise   NA      4      10
(#)
                                                                                                 45
Broadband Penetration    20.3    25     50                                           55
(>256kbps) (%)                                                         70
                                                            85
                                               100
Mobile Penetration (%)   78.5    82     95

                                                                                                 55
Exports of High          20.2    23     40                                           45
Technology Products &                                                  30
Services (% of total                                        15
exports)                                        0
                                              Year 1       Year 6    Year 12      Year 18      Year 24
Tax incentives to incentivize R&D activities

                       Examples from other country                         Proposed Possibilities for
                                                                           Panacea
                     • Equipment related to high-tech R&D:              • In accelerated depreciation cycle for R&D
Accelerated            •   In US, R&D related equipment can be            related investment
                           fully depreciated in 3 year, software in 2     •    Equipment fully depreciated in 3 years
Depreciation
                           years                                          •    Software in 2 years
                       •   Singapore and Korea allow 50%                  •    Up to 50% depreciation in first year
                           depreciation of R&D equipment in first
                           year

R&D Expense          • In Korea, foreign experts who work in domestic   • Allow life sciences companies carry over their
                       companies and government entities are entitled     loss due to R&D investment t off-set future
Carry- Over
                       to exemption of personal income tax                profit


                     • In Korea, companies can withhold 3%-5% of
R&D Expense Off-                                                        • Allow certain percentage of R&D expense
                       sales before tax for R&D purpose
set Profit Tax                                                            directly off-set profit tax
                     • Direct R&D expense off-set: Singapore -100%


                     • In US, 65% of R&D expense on contract
Contract Research      research with university and non-profit          • Implement similar incentives in Panacea
Off-set Profit Tax     institutions can be off-set in profit tax



                     • In Korea, foreign experts who work in domestic
Personal Income
                       companies and government entities are entitled   • Implement similar incentives in Panacea
Tax Incentive
                       to exemption of personal income tax
Seed Funding Mechanism
 Forming the
 deal                 Post                                Scout for
                    Collateral                            investors
               SM                      Seed Financing   with higher        Venture
                E                                       risk appetite     Capitalist
                                          Initiative
                       Seed                                 Seed
                      Funding                              Funding



Payout
                                        Payout if SME
                                          successful
           SM                         Seed Financing                     Venture
            E                            Initiative                     Capitalist


                    Expertise given
Major Phases in SME Creation
                                                                                 •    KCC recognized as a centre
                                         •   KCC recognized as the latest             of mass idea
                                             city of indigenous innovations           commercialisation and
                                         •   Cluster effects take over in             industry consolidation
   •   KCC recognized as an
                                             knowledge                           •    SMEs to increase
       emerging cluster
                                             assimilation, allowing for               contribution to GDP
   •   Measurable increase in
                                             collaborations and mergers               through international
       marketing Panacea to the
                                             across SMEs                              operations
       world



   Laying                          Initialising                               Driving Forward
   Foundations
2019                  2020         Growth                  2025                                   2030
 Phase I (2019 - 2020)              Phase II (2021-2025)                             Phase III (2026-2030)
 •  Improve regulatory              •  Launch of initiatives to attract              •  Review performance of SMEs
    environment in terms of            entrepreneurs                                    under seed financing
    IPR                                    •    Ideas Marketplace                    •  Launch of the Market
 •  Establish Seed Financing               •    R&D Grants                              Assistance Grant for
    Initiative (SFI) to attract            •    Co-funding Schemes (for                 internationalisation of SME
    overseas venture capitalists                ideas scalability)                      Operations
 •  Initial promotion of KCC in     •  Key focus is on high value-added              •  Consolidate knowledge
    Minas Tirith with                  services such as professional                    assimilation by connecting
    construction of basic              services, healthcare, tourism                    SMEs to university research
    infrastructure                                                                      institutions
SME Creation Initiatives

        Ideas Marketplace
                                                                                    Key Performance             2013     2020    2030
              •     Free platform for meeting place of ideas, people, funds         Indicators
              •     Counterparty to be found after agreement of non-divulgence
                    of ideas
                                                                                    SME Contribution to GDP      36.2     37      45
                                                                                    (%)
              •     Technical advice to be given for each starting SME
                                                                                    Spending on R&D (% of        1.6      2.0     3.5
    Market Assistance Grant                                                         GDP)

              •     Internationalisation of SME operations                          Services % of GDP            25       27      32
              •     Provides capital, connections and capability for SMEs
                                                                                    Patent Granted by US (per   N.A      500     3000
              •     Training programmes to understand cultural differences          year)

    Seed Financing Initiative                                                       KCC Parks/Clusters          N.A.      2        4
              •     Actively match investors’ targets with suitable SME
              •     Government to serve as counterparty to give assurance to
                    foreign investors in return for entrepreneurs’ collateral
Year                      1        2       3         4        5       6         7    8     9       10    11     12 Remarks
Infrastructure           100      100     100      100        0       0         0         100     100    100    100
R&D grants                                50        50        50     50        50    60   60       60    60     60 $300k each, 200 SMEs
Co-funding scheme                         100      100       100    100       100   100   100     100    100    100 $500k each, 200 SMEs
Market Assistance
Grant                                                                               100   100     100    100    100 $100k each, 1000 SMEs

Total Cash Outlay         0        0      150      150       150    150       150   260   260     260    260    260

                                                   *in millions USD
Types of Risk

                               Risks                                          Mitigations
                                                                 Create informal networks for synergy generation,
               Lack of companies in clusters
POLICY RISK




                                                                     establish cluster management body
                                                                 Multi-tiered privatisation targets, transparent reporting
               Breakdown of control mechanism                          to independent board
                                                                 Advisory committee established for consulting
               Failure of SOE corporate performance
                                                                     purposes from the onset
                                                                 Establish a IPR Task Force to issue and enforce
               Widespread imitations                                 patents
  MACRO RISK




                                                                 Reduce price of Panacian goods, and give tax
               Eurozone collapses due to Greek exit
                                                                    breaks to local exporters to Europe
               Increase in oil prices due to armed violence in   Increase fiscal budget, and slow down pace of
               Middle East                                            ESS framework execution
                                                                 Move to higher value-added industries where
               Emergence of low cost centers (e.g. Myanmar)
                                                                    their competitive advantage is reduced
Risks                                Mitigations
INDUSTRIALISATION




                    Lack of Vocational Teachers            Attach more industry tie-ups with overseas MNCs

                                                           Financial bursaries (primary/secondary) and
                    Low enrolment in schools
EDUCATION




                                                               scholarships (university)
                                                           Create informal networks for synergy generation,
                    Lack of shareholders in clusters           establish cluster management body
                                                           Set up Board of Investments to encourage joint ventures
                    Lack of technical expertise                 / Attract industries requiring lower-end skills

                                                           Multi-tiered privatisation targets, transparent
                    Breakdown of control mechanism
DEVELOPMENT




                                                                reporting to independent board
                                                           Advisory committee established for consulting
                    Failure of SOE corporate performance
                                                               purposes from the onset
    SOE




                                                           Expand outreach of investors to more regions,
                    Failure to find buyers during IPO          slow down company privatisation if required
                                                           Set up a talent recruitment centre, engage
                    Lack of capable CEOs                        local scholars and talented entrepreneurs


                    Lack of foreign capital funding        Establish an efficient financial capital
CREATION




                                                               market
  SME




                                                           Marketing campaign to encourage
                    Lack of entrepreneurs                      entrepreneurship spirit and risk taking
                                                           Establish a IPR Task Force to issue and
                    Widespread imitations
                                                               enforce patents
Dimensions of KPI
                                                                       Key Performance Indicators         2011        2020 (Est.)   2030 (Est.)
Key Performance Indicators       2011      2020 (Est.)   2030 (Est.)                             Economic Indicators

                                                                       GDP per capita, current (US$)      728.3          1384          2598
                          SME Indicators
                                                                       GDP growth (%)                      4.5           5.5           6.5
SME Contribution to GDP (%)      36.2          38            45        Unemployment (% of population)      8.3           7.5           6.8
                                                                       TFP growth (annual %)               N.A.          5.0           5.5
FDI net inflow (% of GDP)         1.8         1.9           2.0
                                                                                                  Social Indicators

Patents granted by US patent                                           Population below poverty line       28.9           25            20
                                 N.A.        1,000         4,000
office annually
                                                                       Gini Index                          40.1           39            36

                        Budget Indicators                              Literacy Level (% of population)    76.8           82            93
                                                                                               Innovation Indicators
Budget Surplus                    6.2         3.5           4.0        Exports of High-tech Products (%
                                                                                                           20.2           23            36
                                                                       of total exports)
                                                                       R&D Spending (% of GDP)             1.6           1.8           2.2
Finance Cashflow

Public Funding(in millions USD)
Education                  3500    3500   3500   3500   3500   3500   3500   3500   3500   3500   3500   3500   3500   3500   3500   3500   3500   3500
Industralisation           104     104    208    210    322    325    340    355    294    344    378    486    567    719    815    1016   1170   1356
SOE Development                                                        40     80    120    200    150    110     70     30    -10     -5     -5     -5
SME Creation                                                                        150    150    150    150    150    260    260    260    260    260
Total Govt Expense
(Real)                     3604    3604   3708   3710   3822   3825   3880   3935   4064   4194   4178   4246   4287   4509   4565   4771   4925   5111


Private Funding (in millions USD)
Education                                                                           950    950    950    950    950    950    950    950    950    950
Industralisation           100     100    200    200    300    300    300    300    200    200    200    200    200    200    200    200    200    200
SOE Development                                                        10     20    100    200    250    300    300    300    300    300    300    300
SME Creation                                                          100    100    100    100     0      0      0      0     100    100    100    100
Total Private Funding
(Real)                     100     100    200    200    300    300    410    420    1350   1450   1400   1450   1450   1450   1550   1550   1550   1550


Total Funding (in millions USD)
Total Govt Expense
(Real)                      3604   3604   3708   3710   3822   3825   3880   3935   4064   4194   4178   4246   4287   4509   4565   4771   4925   5111
Total Private Funding
(Real)                       100   100    200    200    300    300    410    420    1350   1450   1400   1450   1450   1450   1550   1550   1550   1550
Total expenses             3704    3704   3908   3910   4122   4125   4290   4355   5414   5644   5578   5696   5737   5959   6115   6321   6475   6661
Knowledge Services Clusters


• Focus on:
   o ICT services and Professional services

• Rationale:
   o Availability of lower-cost skills
   o Skilled workforce and proficient in english

• Trend:
   o Increasingly commoditized knowledge services

• Examples:
   o Software development
   o Engineering support
   o Analytical services

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Team kks finals submission

  • 1. Moving Panacea Forward Team KKS Kian Sin Sean Tan Siswanto Tang
  • 2. Presentation Agenda The team will present the way forward for Panacea Introduction • Executive Summary • Key Objectives Next Steps • ESS Framework • Education & Industrialisation • SOE Development • SME Creation Conclusion • Summary of Recommendations • Implementation Timeline • Appendix
  • 3. Executive Summary I. We should focus on training and developing its labor first before focusing on services II. State-owned enterprises are developed to accelerate industrialization in three identified industries and to reduce reliance on FDI III. As the labor force becomes increasingly skilled and educated, we will start to focus on services and foster innovation through providing avenues for local entrepreneurship
  • 4. Key Challenges Panacea faces key challenges in meeting its targets Key Challenges Current Situation 2030 Targets • Contributions of • Contributions of services Lack of skilled services to GDP – to GDP - 70% labour 25% • Exports of services to • Exports of high-tech Lack of 25% of overall exports products & services entrepreneurship - 20.2% spirit and • TFP to have increased by innovation 5% every decade • Limited success of initiatives launched • Development of key by various Inadequate soft sectors in manufacturing ministries infrastructure and services
  • 5. Assessing Targets Panacea should reassess its targets Both ways of reaching the target are unsustainable Dramatic increase • Unsustainable growth Share of Share of in low value-added in services services to services to services GDP: GDP: 25% Downsizing non- 70% • Removal of agricultural related sectors & manufacturing sectors Initial Projections Selected Asian Economies (Services as % of GDP) Annual GDP growth of approx. 6% 12.7% annual growth in GDP of services 1980 2010 5
  • 6. ESS Framework 2013 The team recommends a holistic progressive framework approach which aims to build the foundation, drive growth, and sustain results Justifications Key Challenges Sustaining SME - Sustaining innovations with less Results state funding Creation - Increasing TFP through R&D  Lack of funding skilled labour  Lack of - Develop indigenous Driving SOE capability in key entrepreneurs Growth Development industries hip spirit and innovation - Reduced reliance on FDI  Inadequate Foundation - Laying foundations soft for growth and infrastructure Building Education & innovation Industrialisation - Concentrate industry synergies
  • 7. Recommendations Laying the foundations for a skilled and innovative workforce Education & Industrialisation Concentrating labor force through manufacturing centers to gain technical expertise Undertaking long-term investments which the private sectors will not undertake SOE Development Accelerating developments into industries with high growth potential Fostering sustainable local innovations and entrepreneurship SME Creation Moving into high value-added service industries whilst leveraging on skilled workforce
  • 8. Education & Industralisation Rationale Universities with more Promotes logical and systematical emphasis on thinking for problem solving and engineering, science, coding innovation Breaks down language barriers Primary schools All lessons to be in rural areas taught in with focus on English Provides impetus for research and Science & Math innovation Education Grooming the future leaders of Panacea Shifts the labour force to higher value-adding industries by Government-led research Overseas equipping technical skills Scholarships laboratories
  • 9. Education & Industralisation Rationale Partnerships with industry Achieve cluster synergy with experts and proximity to research institutes and co-location of universities universities Assimilate the required technological expertise and manpower Joint-venture Industrial with foreign policies companies Lower cost, faster start-ups, reduced cost of operations Industrialisation Provide motivation for citizens to move into cities Nudge economy up the value chain, Focus on ICT and Infrastructure and a services-driven one professional development services
  • 10. Recommendations Laying the foundations for a skilled and innovative workforce Education & Industrialisation Concentrating labor force through manufacturing centers to gain technical expertise Undertaking long-term investments which the private sectors will not undertake SOE Development Accelerating developments into industries with high growth potential Fostering sustainable local innovations and entrepreneurship SME Creation Moving into high value-added service industries whilst leveraging on skilled workforce
  • 11. SOE Development Rationale Independent supervisory Reduce agency costs boards To reiterate privatization pressures Higher overseas market potential CEO- Export- Internationalisation sponsored orientated management focus Easier comparison for international KPIs teams SOE Focus on high potential areas Development Emphasize urgency and prevent bureaucratic inertia Leverage upon expertise acquired from clusters Grants given Focus on Undertake local ICT infrastructure for R&D ICT and development efforts electronics Move towards services economy
  • 12. Recommendations Laying the foundations for a skilled and innovative workforce Education & Industrialisation Concentrating labor force through manufacturing centers to gain technical expertise Undertaking long-term investments which the private sectors will not undertake SOE Development Accelerating developments into industries with high growth potential Fostering sustainable local innovations and entrepreneurship SME Creation Moving into high value-added service industries whilst leveraging on skilled workforce
  • 13. SME Creation Rationale Grants given for R&D efforts and Promote indigenous TFP growth services Move towards services economy Creates risk-embracing culture Matches ideas, entrepreneurs and Enforcement funds together and monitoring of SME Ideas Provides a market of meeting Marketplace suppliers and customers for ideas IP and investor laws Creation Promotes R&D efforts as it promises adequate rewards for effort Safeguard interests of investors Attract alternative Reduce burden on state funding funding mechanisms Tap on expertise of venture capitalists
  • 14. Establishment of Neo-Panacea Development Council (NPDC) Neo-Panacea Development Council (NPDC) Chairman Cabinet Secretary Members Minister of Commerce Minister of Public Works Minister of Education Minister of Trade & Investment Planning Level Minister of Labor Ministry of Finance Minister of Social and Welfare Industry Leaders (5 CEOs from targeted industries) Mayor for Minas Tirith Mayor for Gondolin Rationale Implementation Monitoring • Gather feedback on • No conflict of interest • Streamline KPI results • Reduce excessive • One-stop centre for • Yearly performance bureaucracy business permits review • Gain commitment to ESS • Connection to high- • Bonuses contingent on Framework speed ICT infrastructure performance
  • 15. Risk Mitigation Risks Mitigation  Inculcate and encourage informal networks to actualise benefits of Lack of companies industry clusters in industry  Establish a cluster management body to increase marketing efforts and clusters increase awareness of clusters  Establishment of an advisory committee to provide expertise for SOE Failure of SOE  Reduce hierarchical levels and bureaucratic inertia through micro- corporate management from CEO-managed teams performance  Goods to be exported for objective comparison of financial results  Entrench positive network effects of home clusters Competition from  Consider collaborative efforts in sector specialisation other countries
  • 16. Funding Mechanism Breakdown of Total Spending (in Public Funding Private Funding Million US$) Means Means Public Private 6% 25% Corporate and income Infrastructure bonds tax Social impact bonds 94% Import duties Venture capitalists 75% Sovereign funds Private Equity investments 2013-2020 2020 - 2030 Funding volumes (in 2013 2020 2025 2030 US$ million) Public 3,604 3,935 4,287 5,111 Private 100 420 1,450 1,550 Total Funding 3,704 4,355 5,737 6,661
  • 17. Panacea in 2030 Vision of ESS Framework Projected GDP Split A conductive and risk-embracing Agriculture Primary Secondary Services Others culture and environment for local 5% 4% 3% entrepreneurship 25% 31% 41% 15% New challengers in the global 24% marketplace 30% 28% 23% 18% 25% 18% 9% Highly educated workforce with a strong 2013 2020F 2030F foundation in Science and Math. Key Performance Indicators 2011 2020 (Est.) 2030 (Est.) Key Performance Indicators 2011 2020 (Est.) 2030 (Est.) SME Indicators Economic Indicators SME Contribution to GDP (%) 36.2 38 45 GDP growth (%) 4.5 5.5 6.5 TFP growth (annual %) N.A. 5.0 5.5 Social Indicators Innovation Indicators Population below poverty line 28.9 25 20 Exports of High-tech Products (% Budget Indicators 20.2 23 36 of total exports) Budget Surplus 6.2 3.5 4.0 R&D Spending (% of GDP) 1.6 1.8 2.2
  • 18. Panacea in 2030 Vision of ESS Framework Projected GDP Split A conductive and risk-embracing Agriculture Primary Secondary Services Others culture and environment for local 5% 4% 3% entrepreneurship 25% 31% 41% 15% New challengers in the global 24% marketplace 30% 28% 23% 18% 25% 18% 9% Highly educated workforce with a strong 2013 2020F 2030F foundation in Science and Math. Key Performance Indicators 2011 2020 (Est.) 2030 (Est.) Key Performance Indicators 2011 2020 (Est.) 2030 (Est.) SME Indicators Economic Indicators SME Contribution to GDP (%) 36.2 38 45 GDP growth (%) 4.5 5.5 6.5 TFP growth (annual %) N.A. 5.0 5.5 Social Indicators Innovation Indicators Population below poverty line 28.9 25 20 Exports of High-tech Products (% Budget Indicators 20.2 23 36 of total exports) Budget Surplus 6.2 3.5 4.0 R&D Spending (% of GDP) 1.6 1.8 2.2
  • 19. Appendix APPENDIX
  • 20. Key Indicator Comparable Indicator Value Comparable Country Area 2,220,760 sq. km Mexico GDP, current (US$) US$ 728.3 billion (2011) Turkey GDP per Capita US$ 1047.46 (2011) Kyrgyzstan Public Debt: 49.5% of GDP Philippines SME Contribution to 36.2% of GDP GDP Population 695.3 million 3rd in the world Net Migration Rate -0.05 migrant per 1000 India population Literacy Rate 76.8 of total population Belize Population below 28.9% (2010) Sri Lanka poverty line Distribution of income 40.1 GINI coefficient Russia
  • 21. Increased Education Spending in Panacea Financial Support for Education (2013-2030) (in million US$) Student Bursaries Student Scholarships 3,400 2,400 1,000 850 600 50 200 250 2013 2018 2025 2030 Additional Cumulative Construction (2013-2030) Major focus point for S&T universities University Vocational Schools* Primary Schools 850 Key Risks & Mitigations 600 Type of Risk Risk Probability Mitigation Lack of vocational Low Overseas tie-up 250 teachers 120 150 170 84 50 40 50 Low enrollments High Financial bursaries 7 10 and scholarships 2013 2018 2025 2030 *Does not include 24 vocational schools planned
  • 22. Funding Mechanism and Return (Education) Breakdown of Educational Funding Funding Initiative Cost* (first 10 (next 10 Remarks Spending (in Million US$) years) years) Federal State Private 150 schools in 20 Universities 0 $1,500 Federal Federal years, $200 Construction 21% million per school 36% Top 1% (500,000 27% Student Bursaries $ 50 State - students), $100 each 64% 52% Primary School 50 schools per Construction $ 200 State State year, $4 million (rural) per school 2013 - 2020 2020 - 2030 10 schools per Vocational $ 750 Federal Private year, $50 million Key Performance Schools per school Indicators 2013 2020 2030 7.5 schools built Additional on average per funding for $ 800 State State Literacy Rate (%) 76.8 82 93 year, $100 million universities per school Universities (#) N.A. 20 70 1,000 students, Student Public – Vocational Schools (#) N.A. 60 100 $ 200 State $0.2 million per Scholarships Private student School Enrolment, N.A 10 18 Total $ 3,500 Annually (2013 price level) Tertiary (% of population of age * In millions annually (USD) Government-led N.A 8 20 research laboratories
  • 23. Manufacturing clusters (HIDE Zones) to be developed Partnership • Focusing on with Infra-structure electronics and industry & Academia Development automotive parts • Availability of low- Panacea cost labor Industry Cluster • Geographical proximity to high- JV with tech manufacturing Industrial Policies foreign countries companies
  • 24. Why investment into ICT, Electronics, and Automotive? ICT Electronics Automotive • ICT-driven innovation • Growth in electronics • CAGR of 5.5% for could contribute about goes in-tandem with vehicle assembly one third of GDP ICT growth (2010-2017)1 Growth1. • The competitive • 83% growth will be • ICT investment drives nature in this industry contributed by productivity growth in requires companies to emerging markets1 the economy1. continuously develop • Automotive industry • Continuous growth. innovations represents 8.5% of Projected to reach US • Global gadgets total value-added $4 T globally by 20152. spending to reach $1 T generated by in 20131 manufacturing in Europe (High Value- add to GDP)2 1 International Institute of 1 PWC Auto Report 1 PWC Auto Report Communications 2 Global Edge Report 2 Alphametrics Auto Employment 2 Gartner Report
  • 25. Major Phases in Industry Clusters • HIDE Zone recognized as • HIDE Zone recognized as emerging world class a world class industry industry cluster cluster • HIDE Zone recognized as • • Cluster effects take over World-leading innovation an emerging cluster flourishing in HIDE Zone to attract activities into • Measurable increase in • HIDE Zone becomes a HIDE Zone collaboration and • Innovation starts to take pillar in big company technology transfer global R&D network place in HIDE Zone 2013 2015 2020 2030 Phase I (2013-2015) Phase II (2015-2020) Phase III (2020-2030) • Generate awareness, build • Nurture existing companies • Identify next wave of linkage in the clusters emerging technology in • Improve regulatory • Improve funding cluster environment in IPR • Solidify Panacea’s leading mechanism for established • Create funding mechanism to companies position in selected industry develop successful home- grown companies • IPO, M&A, cross- clusters • Create organization to border transactions accelerate cluster development and attract activities into clusters
  • 26. Cluster Development Initiatives Industrial Policies • Attractive tax structure and reduced customs duties • Tax holidays for setting up in industry clusters • Further subsidies and supports for local JVs • Interest subsidies for purchase of capital goods Promote partnership with industry & academia • Industry & University cooperative research centers • Co-funding industry and university R&D projects • Develop training programs for the industry Infrastructure Development • Western Corridor of Panacea to be developed • Increased infrastructure investment in the clusters
  • 27. Risks and Mitigations to Cluster Development Risks Mitigants  Cluster management body is Clusters not sustainable established to ensure the progress in the future  Manage network openness to business outside the cluster Lack of stakeholders  facilitating strong inter- in clusters organisational relationships within the cluster Lack of R&D  Enhance investments in R&D by Expertise facilitating overseas tie-ups
  • 28. Funding Mechanism and Return (SOE) Cumulative Investment (in US$ Million) % of Project Grants 8% Institutio Import & Tax Subsidies Grants Private Funding nal Investors 5000 42% 4000 3000 Import Duties & 2000 Tax 1000 Subsidie 0 s 50% 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 2028 Initiatives 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Subsidies and reduced customs duties (0.3*0.05*import duty) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.94 4.41 11.76 22.05 49.98 83.46 119.99 207.84 287.52 418.20 530.12 721.73 877.82 1066.58 Tax Holidays 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.30 0.44 1.18 2.21 5.02 17.42 5.61 18.75 8.27 31.73 4.72 16.97 4.72 16.97 Interest Subsidies for purchase of capital goods (2.5% discount) 2.50 2.75 5.42 6.92 12.92 15.08 19.17 23.00 29.58 34.25 42.08 48.67 59.58 57.17 66.25 63.67 72.08 57.00 Co-funding industry and university R&D Projects 1.00 1.00 2.00 2.00 4.00 4.00 5.00 5.00 6.00 6.00 7.00 7.00 8.00 8.00 9.00 9.00 10.00 10.00 Develop training programs for the industry 0.50 0.50 1.00 1.00 2.00 2.00 2.50 2.50 3.00 3.00 3.50 3.50 4.00 4.00 4.50 4.50 5.00 5.00 Increased infrastructure investment in the clusters 100.00 100.00 200.00 200.00 300.00 300.00 300.00 300.00 200.00 200.00 200.00 200.00 200.00 200.00 200.00 200.00 200.00 200.00 Total Outflow 104.00 104.25 208.42 209.92 322.15 325.94 339.61 354.76 293.58 344.13 378.18 485.75 567.37 719.10 814.59 1015.87 1169.62 1355.55
  • 29. Infrastructure bonds Targets overseas investors seeking: 1. New financial product for diversification 2. Safe returns, with excess returns dependent on usage of public utility Infrastructure funded includes: 1. Roads (roadtoll booths) 2. Power plants 3. Water treatment plant 4. Airports (airport tax) 5. Ports (port services tax) Pricing depends on product mix and type of bond, and whether payout is contingent on social impact reached. Objective reporting of KPI is vital.
  • 30. KPI for Cluster Development Key Performance 2013 2020 2030 Total Capital Goods Stock ( for one cluster) Indicators FDI Local JV Total SEZ (#) 7 12 17 3000.00 Joint Ventures (#) N.A. 200 850 2000.00 1000.00 Unemployment 8.3 8.0 6.5 (%) 0.00 Urbanization (%) 35.2 40 48 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 2028 Benefits of Industry Cluster Export value 200 300 600 1,200 2,400 4,000 4,500 7,800 9,900 12,000 15,000 17,500 19,000 20,000 Value add to GDP 4 6 12 24 48 200 225 390 495 600 750 875 950 1,000 Import Value 196 294 588 1,176 2,352 3,800 4,275 7,410 9,405 11,400 14,250 16,625 18,050 19,000
  • 31. Agent of growth FDI SOE SME Pros: Pros: Cons: 1. Strategic 1. Quick transfer 1. May be Cons: industry of technology manipulated to 1. Over-reliance of development and expertise fulfill selfish GDP on FDI to fill demand 2. Low costs to political goals 2. Loss of national not met by government 2. Inefficiencies sovereignty private sector 3. Transfer more and slackness of 3. Diversion of local 2. Easy to form different government talents to MNCs and effect (optimal) bureaucracy with higher pay changes management 3. No expertise or 3. Fully organisational technology internalised methods profits • ICT is a key strategic industry that should be internalised. • Expertise to be obtained from scholars and JVs • Transparent boards coupled with privatisation pressures
  • 32. Agent of growth FDI SOE SME Pros: Pros: 1. Strategic Cons: Cons: 1. Long-term industry 1. 1. May be 1. Small in scale sustainable development manipulated to and limited innovations to fill demand fulfill selfish resources 2. Constant not met by political goals 2. Failure rate is competitive private sector 2. Inefficiencies high pressures 2. Easy to form and slackness of 3. Difficult to 3. No agency and effect government dominate in costs changes bureaucracy overseas 4. Generates 3. Fully 3. No expertise or markets more internalised technology employment profits • ICT is a key strategic industry that requires economies of scale • Mandate of government to shift to sustainable innovation and driven by services sector
  • 33. SOE Development Clear Rationale Increased financial transparen targets Pursue active participation in focus cy industries to catalyze the industrialization process and develop indigenous capability Key Characteristics State- • No state interference or favors owned • Expected to be efficient and Enterprises profitable with clear financial targets • Export orientation ensures Free from learning the best technology Export- political oriented overseas interferenc focus • No protection in domestic market e after 5 years
  • 34. Major Phases in SOE Development • SOE recognized as a emerging world-class company • SOE starts to have • SOE develops its core innovation on its own competitive strength • SOE starts to attract private • SOE is seen less • SOE produced the first capital government-linked (50- product or services by first • SOE starts to develop 50%) phase innovation Domestic Export-focused Building competencies Nurturing 2018 2023 2027 2030 and beyond Phase I (2018-2023) Phase II (2015-2020) Phase III (2020-2030) • Start recruitment of expertise • SOE starts developing • SOE starts developing more for SOE products for export highly sophisticated products • Injection of working capital • Gradual privatization • SOE invites more capital • Purchase of capital goods • IPO, stake sell injection from private sectors • First production starts • Continuously develop • SOE starts to develop • Source of innovation: innovations proprietary technology • Indigenously developed • Licensing
  • 35. Funding Mechanism (SOE) SOE Funding Source Capital Goods Working R&D Grant Capital 50% Co-Funding 50% Co-Funding Public Guaranteed Public Funding Private Funding Loan Foreign technologies • Public capital Injection follows VC funding structure and are conducted in stages. SOEs are eligible for further capital injection after fulfilling certain requirements Foreign Loans Local Banks • This measure reduces risk for the government Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Remarks SOE Establishment 40 80 120 200 160 120 80 40 0 0 0 0 $20m/ capital injection 15 % stake per SOE Privatization -15 -15 -15 -15 -15 -15 -15 -15 privatization R&D Grants 5 5 5 5 5 10 10 10 $ 5m/ research grant Total Govt Outlay 40 80 120 200 150 110 70 30 -10 -5 -5 -5 ICT infrastructure $300 m/ year after 5th development 10 20 100 200 250 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 year Total Private Outlay 10 20 100 200 250 300 300 300 300 300 300 300
  • 36. KPI for SOE Development Changes in Ownership Structure Key Performance 2013 2020 2030 Private Source Public Source Indicators State-owned enterprise NA 4 10 (#) 45 Broadband Penetration 20.3 25 50 55 (>256kbps) (%) 70 85 100 Mobile Penetration (%) 78.5 82 95 55 Exports of High 20.2 23 40 45 Technology Products & 30 Services (% of total 15 exports) 0 Year 1 Year 6 Year 12 Year 18 Year 24
  • 37. Tax incentives to incentivize R&D activities Examples from other country Proposed Possibilities for Panacea • Equipment related to high-tech R&D: • In accelerated depreciation cycle for R&D Accelerated • In US, R&D related equipment can be related investment fully depreciated in 3 year, software in 2 • Equipment fully depreciated in 3 years Depreciation years • Software in 2 years • Singapore and Korea allow 50% • Up to 50% depreciation in first year depreciation of R&D equipment in first year R&D Expense • In Korea, foreign experts who work in domestic • Allow life sciences companies carry over their companies and government entities are entitled loss due to R&D investment t off-set future Carry- Over to exemption of personal income tax profit • In Korea, companies can withhold 3%-5% of R&D Expense Off- • Allow certain percentage of R&D expense sales before tax for R&D purpose set Profit Tax directly off-set profit tax • Direct R&D expense off-set: Singapore -100% • In US, 65% of R&D expense on contract Contract Research research with university and non-profit • Implement similar incentives in Panacea Off-set Profit Tax institutions can be off-set in profit tax • In Korea, foreign experts who work in domestic Personal Income companies and government entities are entitled • Implement similar incentives in Panacea Tax Incentive to exemption of personal income tax
  • 38. Seed Funding Mechanism Forming the deal Post Scout for Collateral investors SM Seed Financing with higher Venture E risk appetite Capitalist Initiative Seed Seed Funding Funding Payout Payout if SME successful SM Seed Financing Venture E Initiative Capitalist Expertise given
  • 39. Major Phases in SME Creation • KCC recognized as a centre • KCC recognized as the latest of mass idea city of indigenous innovations commercialisation and • Cluster effects take over in industry consolidation • KCC recognized as an knowledge • SMEs to increase emerging cluster assimilation, allowing for contribution to GDP • Measurable increase in collaborations and mergers through international marketing Panacea to the across SMEs operations world Laying Initialising Driving Forward Foundations 2019 2020 Growth 2025 2030 Phase I (2019 - 2020) Phase II (2021-2025) Phase III (2026-2030) • Improve regulatory • Launch of initiatives to attract • Review performance of SMEs environment in terms of entrepreneurs under seed financing IPR • Ideas Marketplace • Launch of the Market • Establish Seed Financing • R&D Grants Assistance Grant for Initiative (SFI) to attract • Co-funding Schemes (for internationalisation of SME overseas venture capitalists ideas scalability) Operations • Initial promotion of KCC in • Key focus is on high value-added • Consolidate knowledge Minas Tirith with services such as professional assimilation by connecting construction of basic services, healthcare, tourism SMEs to university research infrastructure institutions
  • 40. SME Creation Initiatives Ideas Marketplace Key Performance 2013 2020 2030 • Free platform for meeting place of ideas, people, funds Indicators • Counterparty to be found after agreement of non-divulgence of ideas SME Contribution to GDP 36.2 37 45 (%) • Technical advice to be given for each starting SME Spending on R&D (% of 1.6 2.0 3.5 Market Assistance Grant GDP) • Internationalisation of SME operations Services % of GDP 25 27 32 • Provides capital, connections and capability for SMEs Patent Granted by US (per N.A 500 3000 • Training programmes to understand cultural differences year) Seed Financing Initiative KCC Parks/Clusters N.A. 2 4 • Actively match investors’ targets with suitable SME • Government to serve as counterparty to give assurance to foreign investors in return for entrepreneurs’ collateral Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Remarks Infrastructure 100 100 100 100 0 0 0 100 100 100 100 R&D grants 50 50 50 50 50 60 60 60 60 60 $300k each, 200 SMEs Co-funding scheme 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 $500k each, 200 SMEs Market Assistance Grant 100 100 100 100 100 $100k each, 1000 SMEs Total Cash Outlay 0 0 150 150 150 150 150 260 260 260 260 260 *in millions USD
  • 41. Types of Risk Risks Mitigations Create informal networks for synergy generation, Lack of companies in clusters POLICY RISK establish cluster management body Multi-tiered privatisation targets, transparent reporting Breakdown of control mechanism to independent board Advisory committee established for consulting Failure of SOE corporate performance purposes from the onset Establish a IPR Task Force to issue and enforce Widespread imitations patents MACRO RISK Reduce price of Panacian goods, and give tax Eurozone collapses due to Greek exit breaks to local exporters to Europe Increase in oil prices due to armed violence in Increase fiscal budget, and slow down pace of Middle East ESS framework execution Move to higher value-added industries where Emergence of low cost centers (e.g. Myanmar) their competitive advantage is reduced
  • 42. Risks Mitigations INDUSTRIALISATION Lack of Vocational Teachers Attach more industry tie-ups with overseas MNCs Financial bursaries (primary/secondary) and Low enrolment in schools EDUCATION scholarships (university) Create informal networks for synergy generation, Lack of shareholders in clusters establish cluster management body Set up Board of Investments to encourage joint ventures Lack of technical expertise / Attract industries requiring lower-end skills Multi-tiered privatisation targets, transparent Breakdown of control mechanism DEVELOPMENT reporting to independent board Advisory committee established for consulting Failure of SOE corporate performance purposes from the onset SOE Expand outreach of investors to more regions, Failure to find buyers during IPO slow down company privatisation if required Set up a talent recruitment centre, engage Lack of capable CEOs local scholars and talented entrepreneurs Lack of foreign capital funding Establish an efficient financial capital CREATION market SME Marketing campaign to encourage Lack of entrepreneurs entrepreneurship spirit and risk taking Establish a IPR Task Force to issue and Widespread imitations enforce patents
  • 43. Dimensions of KPI Key Performance Indicators 2011 2020 (Est.) 2030 (Est.) Key Performance Indicators 2011 2020 (Est.) 2030 (Est.) Economic Indicators GDP per capita, current (US$) 728.3 1384 2598 SME Indicators GDP growth (%) 4.5 5.5 6.5 SME Contribution to GDP (%) 36.2 38 45 Unemployment (% of population) 8.3 7.5 6.8 TFP growth (annual %) N.A. 5.0 5.5 FDI net inflow (% of GDP) 1.8 1.9 2.0 Social Indicators Patents granted by US patent Population below poverty line 28.9 25 20 N.A. 1,000 4,000 office annually Gini Index 40.1 39 36 Budget Indicators Literacy Level (% of population) 76.8 82 93 Innovation Indicators Budget Surplus 6.2 3.5 4.0 Exports of High-tech Products (% 20.2 23 36 of total exports) R&D Spending (% of GDP) 1.6 1.8 2.2
  • 44. Finance Cashflow Public Funding(in millions USD) Education 3500 3500 3500 3500 3500 3500 3500 3500 3500 3500 3500 3500 3500 3500 3500 3500 3500 3500 Industralisation 104 104 208 210 322 325 340 355 294 344 378 486 567 719 815 1016 1170 1356 SOE Development 40 80 120 200 150 110 70 30 -10 -5 -5 -5 SME Creation 150 150 150 150 150 260 260 260 260 260 Total Govt Expense (Real) 3604 3604 3708 3710 3822 3825 3880 3935 4064 4194 4178 4246 4287 4509 4565 4771 4925 5111 Private Funding (in millions USD) Education 950 950 950 950 950 950 950 950 950 950 Industralisation 100 100 200 200 300 300 300 300 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 SOE Development 10 20 100 200 250 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 SME Creation 100 100 100 100 0 0 0 0 100 100 100 100 Total Private Funding (Real) 100 100 200 200 300 300 410 420 1350 1450 1400 1450 1450 1450 1550 1550 1550 1550 Total Funding (in millions USD) Total Govt Expense (Real) 3604 3604 3708 3710 3822 3825 3880 3935 4064 4194 4178 4246 4287 4509 4565 4771 4925 5111 Total Private Funding (Real) 100 100 200 200 300 300 410 420 1350 1450 1400 1450 1450 1450 1550 1550 1550 1550 Total expenses 3704 3704 3908 3910 4122 4125 4290 4355 5414 5644 5578 5696 5737 5959 6115 6321 6475 6661
  • 45. Knowledge Services Clusters • Focus on: o ICT services and Professional services • Rationale: o Availability of lower-cost skills o Skilled workforce and proficient in english • Trend: o Increasingly commoditized knowledge services • Examples: o Software development o Engineering support o Analytical services

Notas do Editor

  1. Fostering sustainableinnovation throughPromoting
  2. Fostering sustainableinnovation throughPromoting
  3. Fostering sustainableinnovation throughPromoting
  4. Mass commericalisation slide!!