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Thoughts on some trends influencing people & use of technology
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Trends People Tech Apr09
1.
SOME TRENDS INFLUENCING PEOPLE
& USE OF TECHNOLOGY Kate Carruthers April 2009
2.
Who Me? Marketer, technologist, educator, law
student and renaissance woman www.katecarruthers.com www.siliconfederation.com © 2009 Kate Carruthers 2 www.katecarruthers.com
3.
“Innovation always comes
unexpectedly & from the periphery.” © 2009 Kate Carruthers 3 www.katecarruthers.com
4.
A few interesting
things about web 2.0: • It is not new technology • It is new ways of using older technology • It is not using the old mindset where technology was the province of gurus • It is democratizing technology • It is applying new business models © 2009 Kate Carruthers 4 www.katecarruthers.com
5.
Let‟s think about
what is coming next for the web… – What are some of the drivers of innovation? – What are some of the enablers of innovation? – What are some of the important social & cultural aspects? © 2009 Kate Carruthers 5 www.katecarruthers.com
6.
Macro Trends
• Next Generation Internet – semantics, contextual, geo- Internet aware • New interfaces – gesture, haptic, auditory, human- Interfaces computer, voice user interfaces • Virtualization , cloud computing enabled by solid state Hardware drives, blade technology Social Computing • It’s here and it will continue to grow Ubiquitous • Wearable, networks, convergence Computing © 2009 Kate Carruthers 6 www.katecarruthers.com
7.
Context & Issues
Political Legal Economic Environmental Social © 2009 Kate Carruthers 7 www.katecarruthers.com
8.
Context & Issues
e.g. censorship e.g. global Political of internet financial crisis Legal Economic e.g. copyright & intellectual property e.g. growth of social Environmental computing & Social e.g. green the digital computing & divide climate change © 2009 Kate Carruthers 8 www.katecarruthers.com
9.
Key Considerations Technical
Business • Hardware • Security & identity management • Software • Privacy & Censorship • Infrastructure • Legal & Copyright • Metadata • Governance & the – Taxonomies „Shadow‟ IT dept – Ontologies – • Resources & Skills Folksonomies – RDF, FOAF, XML, RSS, • Outsourcing & Support API, etc. © 2009 Kate Carruthers 9 www.katecarruthers.com
10.
Speed of Change The
rate of change is increasing & this is evident in the example of the telephone. It did not change for almost 100 years & now it changes every 3 months. © 2009 Kate Carruthers 10 www.katecarruthers.com
11.
Speed of Change
Examples of speedy changes that are shifting use by ordinary people and their expectations of technology: “iPhone “Skype now maker Apple the world's increased its largest market share international from 2.7% in voice carrier” 2007 to 8.2% in 2008 Source: Market Share: Smartphones Worldwide 2008 Source: http://www.itwire.com/content/view/24043/127/ http://www.smartcompany.com.au/telecommunications/iph 25-Mar-2009 one-and-blackberry-take-market-share-from-nokia.html © 2009 Kate Carruthers 11 www.katecarruthers.com
12.
Generations It is interesting
to overlay the speed of change against the theory of generations. The idea goes that each age cohort has a particular relationship to technology & change adoption. © 2009 Kate Carruthers 12 www.katecarruthers.com
13.
Generations? “ I fundamentally
disagree with the idea that mere membership of an age cohort determines a person‟s relationship to technology or to change adoption.” © 2009 Kate Carruthers 13 www.katecarruthers.com
14.
Generations? “ What will
become a determining factor is not membership of an age cohort, rather it is one‟s willingness to be connected.” Source: http://www.flickr.com/photos/frotzed/1700990750/ © 2009 Kate Carruthers 14 www.katecarruthers.com
15.
Generations? “ The willingness
& desire to be hyperconnected via technology will become the new generation gap.” Source: http://www.flickr.com/photos/frotzed/1700990750/ © 2009 Kate Carruthers 15 www.katecarruthers.com
16.
SOME FORCES FOR
CHANGE © 2009 Kate Carruthers 16 www.katecarruthers.com
17.
Changes in Consumption Hitwise,
Social networks overtake webmail, November 06, 2007 http://weblogs.hitwise.com/robin-goad/2007/11/social_networks_overtake_webma.html © 2009 Kate Carruthers 17 www.katecarruthers.com
18.
Changes in Consumption Hitwise,
Social networks overtake webmail, November 06, 2007 http://weblogs.hitwise.com/robin-goad/2007/11/social_networks_overtake_webma.html ` © 2009 Kate Carruthers 18 www.katecarruthers.com
19.
Changes in Consumption Hitwise,
Social networks overtake Adult sites, Jan 2009 http://weblogs.hitwise.com/robin-goad/2009/01/social_networks_overtake_adult_websites.html © 2009 Kate Carruthers 19 www.katecarruthers.com
20.
Social Computing
© 2009 Kate Carruthers Source: XCD http://xkcd.com/256/ 20 www.katecarruthers.com
21.
Source: Brian Solis
http://www.flickr.com/photos/briansolis/2735401175/sizes/l © 2009 Kate Carruthers 21 www.katecarruthers.com
22.
Social Computing • Change
is the only constant • Ordinary people are co-opting web technology in unplanned, unorganised & unexpected ways Source: XCD http://xkcd.com/256/ © 2009 Kate Carruthers 22 www.katecarruthers.com
23.
Source: Christopher S.
Penn http://www.christopherspenn.com/2008/09/04/social-media-and-new-media-are-not-the-same/ Shift from passive consumption to active acquisition of media © 2009 Kate Carruthers 23 www.katecarruthers.com
24.
Hyperconnectivity Not 6 degrees
of separation Perhaps only 1 degree? Source: http://www.popsci.com.au/files/imagecache/article_image_large/files/articles/734px-Six_degrees_of_separation.jpg © 2009 Kate Carruthers 24 www.katecarruthers.com
25.
Hyperconnectivity Social networking is crashing
the degrees of separation between individuals Source: http://twitter.com/TurnbullMalcolm 11 Apr 09 © 2009 Kate Carruthers 25 www.katecarruthers.com
26.
Consumption On-Demand • No
more waiting • What I want • When I want it http://www.techcrunch.com/2007/12/17/bittorrent-is-now-streaming-movies-with-ads-but-wheres-the-good- stuff/ © 2009 Kate Carruthers 26 www.katecarruthers.com
27.
Tribal Brains • Wired
to deal with smaller groups • Wired for small chunks of information • Magical number 7 © 2009 Kate Carruthers 27 www.katecarruthers.com
28.
Tribal Creatures • Tribe
size • Dunbar‟s number = 150 • We mesh into subgroups based on common interests • Increasingly loose ties Source: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/99/Maasai_tribe.jpg © 2009 Kate Carruthers 28 www.katecarruthers.com
29.
Chunking
• Growth of knowledge • Too much knowledge to keep in our heads • No more epic poetry Source: http://www.familycourtchronicles.com/philosophy/spartan/spartan-brad-pitt.jpg © 2009 Kate Carruthers 29 www.katecarruthers.com
30.
• In the
distant past we used techniques like epic poetry to share important knowledge • Then we graduated to books • And then to hypertext • NOW WE HAVE TOO MUCH INFORMATION! Challenges today are filtering, ordering & adding meaning to information © 2009 Kate Carruthers 30 www.katecarruthers.com
31.
Not generational conflict,
rather connectivity conflict © 2009 Kate Carruthers 31 www.katecarruthers.com
32.
Boundaries • Time • Place •
Content • Authority Source: http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Image:Hadrians_wall_Greenhead.jpg © 2009 Kate Carruthers 32 www.katecarruthers.com
33.
Boundaries • We are
dealing with a • Many of these people radically different set were socialised in the of expectations – from old non-digital world; our staff, suppliers & while others are consumers digital natives It’s going to be an interesting balancing act between those different sets of expectations © 2009 Kate Carruthers 33 www.katecarruthers.com
34.
We are dealing
with: • Issues about boundaries in relation to people, process & technology • Different perspectives on what the boundaries are • Questions about if the boundaries exist at all Battle is between centralised authority & growing power of individuals/smaller groups © 2009 Kate Carruthers 34 www.katecarruthers.com
35.
We can expect
debates about: • Appropriate times and places of consumption of new media • Appropriate levels of control over the content • Who has the authority to decide all of this “The Net interprets censorship as damage and routes around it.” – John Gilmore © 2009 Kate Carruthers 35 www.katecarruthers.com
36.
Boundaries • Defining boundaries
in a hyperconnected world is a challenge • But interesting discoveries are made at the boundaries of the currently known world © 2009 Kate Carruthers 36 www.katecarruthers.com
37.
Some interesting questions: •
What about the role of authority? • Who has it & why? • How do we feel about that? • Is it generational? © 2009 Kate Carruthers 37 www.katecarruthers.com
38.
© 2009 Kate
Carruthers 38 www.katecarruthers.com
39.
The rules are
changing We‟re not in control any more. This brings opportunities! © 2009 Kate Carruthers 39 www.katecarruthers.com
40.
SOME NEW TECHNOLOGY
HEADING OUR WAY © 2009 Kate Carruthers 40 www.katecarruthers.com
41.
• Accessible to
ordinary people not just specialists or large companies • Commoditization driving prices down further • Ubiquitous & easy to use • Not requiring high levels of specialised technical knowledge © 2009 Kate Carruthers 41 www.katecarruthers.com
42.
New Technology
Affordable RFID chips enabling the internet of things Source: http://www.touchatag.com/ © 2009 Kate Carruthers 42 www.katecarruthers.com
43.
Wearable computing - e.g. shoes
that report back on you Devices That Tell On You: The Nike+iPod Sport Kit http://www.cs.washington.edu/research/systems/privacy.html © 2009 Kate Carruthers 43 www.katecarruthers.com
44.
GPS chips that give
an accurate location fix from indoors Source: Engadget http://www.engadget.com/2009/02/12/epsons-tiny-gps-receiver-will-make-everything-location-aware/ © 2009 Kate Carruthers 44 www.katecarruthers.com
45.
Keeping the ageing baby boomer population
at home longer Joseph Hayduk, 86, who suffers from congestive heart failure, transmits his clinical vital signs everyday via a quot;HomMed Health Monitoring Systemquot; to a Meridian Home Care office where a registered nurse tracks his health. Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/13/us/13senior.html?em © 2009 Kate Carruthers 45 www.katecarruthers.com
46.
New Interfaces
• Gesture interfaces • Acoustic input • Touch screens • Haptic interfaces • Voice UI Source: http://www.nickhodge.com/blog/archives/2606 © 2009 Kate Carruthers 46 www.katecarruthers.com
47.
New Interfaces Purdue University
2004: nanoworkbench capable of providing real-time perceptualization of the mechanical properties, such as stiffness, adhesion or friction, of a nanoscale object during positioning or manipulation Source: http://www.ecn.purdue.edu/HIRL/ Sahara Touch-iT Tablet i200 Black © 2009 Kate Carruthers 47 www.katecarruthers.com
48.
New Interfaces Commercially available
2007 Gesture Computer Interface Device Developed For Surgeons 2008 http://www.gtec.at/products/g.MOBIlab/gMOBIlabPocketPC.htm http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/06/080616101137.htm © 2009 Kate Carruthers 48 www.katecarruthers.com
49.
New Interfaces
• Clothing that senses our emotions • This jacket lets you feel the movies Source: http://www.spectrum.ieee.org/mar09/8287 IEEE-sponsored 2009 World Haptics Conference 2009 © 2009 Kate Carruthers 49 www.katecarruthers.com
50.
New Interfaces
• GUI → TUI • Moves from Graphical to Tangible User Interface Source: http://tacolab.com/projects/Siftables © 2009 Kate Carruthers 50 www.katecarruthers.com
51.
Hardware
• Hard disk density • Solid state drives • Batteries • Robotics go mainstream Source: http://www.spectrum.ieee.org/mar09/8367 Source: http://www.maniacworld.com/cat-loves-his-roomba.html © 2009 Kate Carruthers 51 www.katecarruthers.com
52.
Hardware
• Blades • Virtualization • Cloud computing/ Grid computing/ Utility computing Dell cluster © 2009 Kate Carruthers 52 www.katecarruthers.com
53.
Amazon Web Services Google App
Engine Microsoft Azure Rackspace Mosso ServePath GoGrid Sample cloud architecture http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/7/79/CloudComputingSampleArchi tecture.svg/400px-CloudComputingSampleArchitecture.svg.png © 2009 Kate Carruthers 53 www.katecarruthers.com
54.
THE BIGGEST SHIFT
© 2009 Kate Carruthers 54 www.katecarruthers.com
55.
The Biggest Shift
“… the shift towards the individual as the centre of a network of relationships mediated & enabled by technology …” Source: Kevin Kelly, http://www.kk.org/thetechnium/archives/2007/11/four_stages_in.php © 2009 Kate Carruthers 55 www.katecarruthers.com
56.
The Biggest Shift
“… it means decentralisation of power from the old authorities to a new model – & we do not yet know what that new model will be.” Source: MIT's Technology Review: Mapping the Internet., http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/images/2007/06/22/net_periphery.jpg © 2009 Kate Carruthers 56 www.katecarruthers.com
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