http://www.gwu.edu/~iiep/assets/KnownKnowns.pdf

1. Measuring Internet Impact in
Latin America
November 15, 2013
George Washington University
Carolina Rossini, LLM, MBA, MA, JD
Project Director, Latin America Resource Center
New America Foundation

2. Countries with National Broadband
Plan (2012)
25
20
15
10
5
0
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
> Source: ITU/CISCO (2013)

3. ARGENTINA
BRAZIL
COLOMBIA
Argentina
Conectada
Plano Nacional de
Banda Larga (PNBL)
Vive Digital
GEOGRAPHICAL
TARGET
100%
municipalities
76% municipalities
62% municipalities
PRICE/QUALITY
TARGET
10Mbps
1Mbps at US$ 20
per month
1Mbps
$1.8 billion USD
$3.25 billion USD
$2.25 billion USD
$44.2 USD
$16.6 USD
$48.6 USD
0.4%
0.13%
0.78%
2011-2015
2010-2014
2010-2014
NAME OF
INITIATIVE
TOTAL
INVESTMENT
TOTAL PER
CAPITA
TOTAL AS % GDP
DURATION
> Source: ITU/CISCO (2013)

4. Countries with ICT in Education programs
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Primary
Secondary

5. ARGENTINA
BRAZIL
URUGUAY
Conectar Igualdad
Programa Banda
Larga nas Escolas**
Plan Ceibal***
Secondary
Primary and
secondary
Primary and
secondary
No
Yes
Yes
EQUIPMENT
Yes (laptop)
No
Yes (OLPC)
TOTAL ANNUAL
INVESTMENT
~700M USD
n/a
~50M USD
TOTAL AS %
EDUCATION
EXPENDITURE
10%
n/a
5%
YEAR STARTED
2010
2010
2008
NAME OF
INITIATIVE
TARGET
CONNECTIVITY
* http://www.conectarigualdad.gob.ar/
**http://portal.mec.gov.br/index.php?Itemid=823&id=15808&option=com_content&view=article
***http://www.ceibal.org.uy/

6. 57 municipalities
63 municipalities
150
municipalities
265
municipalities
283
municipalities
Source: http://emec.mec.gov.br/

7. AUTHOR(S)
QIANG AND
ROSSOTTO (2009)
DATA
RESULTS
120 countries,
1980-2006.
10 p.p. increase in broadband
yields an additional 1.38 p.p. of
GDP growth.
KOUTROUMPIS
(2009)
22 OECD countries,
2002–2007.
CZERNICH ET AL.
(2011).
25 OECD countries,
1996-2007.
LEHR ET AL. (2006).
ZIP codes and
states (US), 1998–
2002.
CRANDALL, R. ET AL.
(2007).
A 10% increase in broadband
increases GDP growth by an
average of 0.25%
A 10 p.p. increase in broadband
raises annual per-capita growth
by 0.9-1.5 p.p.
Broadband availability increases
employment by 1.5% and
businesses by 0.5%. No effect on
wages.
A 10% increase in the penetration
States (USA), 2003rate increases employment by 2%.
2005.
No effect on GDP growth.

8. Source: Estimating broadband demand and its
economic impact in latin america raul l. katz
(2009)

9. DIRSI Project Motivation: Recent Public Investments In Broadband
Raise Questions About Development Impact
 Does the evidence about positive impacts support these public
investments?
 How are benefits being appropriated? How large are impact
externalities? What is the distributional impact?
 How cost-effective are these programs? How to improve
program design and implementation?

10. >
FIRM ADOPTION OF
BROADBAND
>
>
>
>
HH ADOPTION OF
BROADBAND
>
>
>
>
BETTER MARKET
COORDINATION
>
ICT SKILLS
ACQUISITION
INFORMATION GAINS
Growth effect
+
BETTER LABOR
MATCHING
INCREASE SOCIAL
CAPITAL
>
BROADBAND IN
SCHOOLS
INCREASE IN
PRODUCTIVITY
>
>
Employment
effect
+
>
> Governance effect

11. >
. Panel of municipalities between 2005-2011 (~ 5,000 obs.)
. Sources: HH survey (GEIH), MinTIC, and DNP.
. OLS regressions, IV =average slope of terrain.
. Proxies for economic activity: tax revenues and # firms.
. Basic model:
. Key questions:
> Does faster broadband adoption yield more economic activity
(growth effect)?
> Is the effect different for HH vs. corporate adoption?
> Does access speed matter (256 vs. 512 vs. 1024kbps)?

12. >
. Broadband has a positive impact on economic activity
> A 10% increase in penetration yields 0,4% in tax revenues
> A 10% increase in penetration yields 4% in # firms
. The magnitude of effects is similar for HH and corporate
adoption
> HH adoption also has effect on # firms
. The magnitude of effects is similar for different speed levels
> What really matters is connectivity, not speed

13. > ECUADOR: DATA, METHOD AND KEY QUESTIONS
>
. Panel of individuals between 2009-2011 reporting labor income and
ICT module:
> Treatment group: 8,785 individuals
> Control group: 7,664 individuals
. Sources: National HH survey and SENATEL.
. T-test reveals groups have similar mean in variables of interest
at baseline (2009)
. Basic model:
. Key questions:
> Has income raise more in municipalities connected in 2010-2011?
> Are there differences between adopters and non adopters?
> Are there heterogeneous effects (by age/gender/occupations)?

14. > ECUADOR: KEY FINDINGS
>
. Broadband has a positive impact on labor income (regardless
of adoption)
> Increase in individual labor income of $25,7 USD over 2-year period
> 7.5% increase over initial sample average (3.6% per year)
. The effect is larger for those adopting broadband
> Increase in individual labor income of $51,8 USD over 2-year period
> 10,3% increase over initial sample average (5% per year)
. The overall effect is larger for men than for women
> Yet gender difference disappears among broadband adopters

15. •
Overall the findings confirm that increased broadband adoption by
households and firms results in higher levels of economic activity
and raises household income (as much as 7.5% over a two-year
period in some specifications), although employment effects are
found to be inconclusive.
•
While the findings suggest that local externalities are present, the
impact is found to be significantly higher for individuals adopting
broadband services.
•
In addition the income effect of broadband was found to be larger for
men than for women. The hypothesis is that this is due to differences
in human capital as well as to gender differences in occupations,
which in Latin America are still affected by traditional views about
gender roles.

16. CASE STUDY
CONNECTED TO LEARN?
THE EFFECT OF
BROADBAND INTERNET ON
SCHOOL QUALITY IN
BRAZIL.
CAN INFORMATION AND
COMMUNICATION
TECHNOLOGIES (ICTS) HAVE A
POSITIVE IMPACT ON STUDENT
PERFORMANCE? EVIDENCE
FROM CHILE.
INTERNET ACCESS, TYPE OF
ACCESS AND EDUCATIONAL
OUTCOMES: EVIDENCE FOR
THE PERUVIAN CASE.
COUNTRY
DATA
Panel data of students
and teachers 20072011.
Brazil
Number of
observations:
between 83,000
and 124,000.
Two cohorts of
primary-level students
in public schools
(2005-2011).
Chile
Number of
observations:
between 110,000
and 133,000.
Panel data of students
at school level (20072011).
Peru
Number of
observations:
10,000.
SOURCES
METHODOLOG
Y
School census and test
scores from
Ministry of Education.
Administrative data for
PBLE from ANATEL.
Regression models that
exploit the phase-in of
the program.
Test scores (SIMCE) and
information about
ENLACES program from
Ministry of Education.
Difference-in-difference
with matching.
School Census and test
scores data from
Ministry of Education.
Difference-in-difference
with matching.

17. 2013 Freedom On The Net

18. • This methodology applies a three-pillared approach to capture the
level of internet and ICT freedom:
– Obstacles to Access—including infrastructural and economic barriers to access,
legal and ownership control over internet service providers (ISPs), and
independence of regulatory bodies;
– Limits on Content—including legal regulations on content, technical filtering
and blocking of websites, self-censorship, the vibrancy/diversity of online news
media, and the use of ICTs for civic mobilization;
– Violations of User Rights—including surveillance, privacy, and repercussions
for online activity, such as imprisonment, extralegal harassment, or cyber
attacks.

19. Role of Companies
http://googlepublicpolicy.blogspot.in/2013/11/government-requests-for-user.html

23. Article 19 and CGI.Br
• Dos 173 court decisions
o 165 offense to honor
o 3 privacy violations
o 3 copyright infringement
o 2 trademark infringement

24. Take Down of Content
• PRESENT:
o 74 of 173 decisions (42,7% ) take down of specific
content
o 1 case (offense to honour) take down of the URL
(= whole site)
• FUTURE: In 8 court decisions (4,8%) the court
prohibited any publications of same nature

25. Freedom of Expression in Court
Decisions
• In 51 of 173 (29,4%) there was some discussion
of freedom of expression
• All the 51 cases were concerned to offense to
honor

26. • Beyond numbers, methodologies of indexes
do provide a good roadmap for issues to be
addressed by policy, research, advocacy and
training

27. Thank you
carolina.rossini@gmail.com