1. The Texas Economy
Jesse Thompson
Regional Business Economist
The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Houston Branch
October 2013

2. Austin
San Antonio
Houston

4. Oil & Gas Extraction

5. U.S. Oil Production Growth
After 30 years of decline,
tight oil drives production growth
Jan 1981=100
130
New Mexico
U.S.
Texas
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
Jan-1981
Aug-1985
SOURCE: Energy Information Agency.
Mar-1990
Oct-1994
May-1999
Dec-2003
Jul-2008

6. 02/04/13
12/04/12
10/04/12
08/04/12
0
06/04/12
100
04/04/12
300
02/04/12
300
12/04/11
100
10/04/11
60
Directional
08/04/11
80
Horizontal
06/04/11
500
Vertical
04/04/11
Permian
02/04/11
02/04/13
12/04/12
10/04/12
08/04/12
06/04/12
04/04/12
02/04/12
12/04/11
10/04/11
08/04/11
06/04/11
600
04/04/11
02/04/11
Texas Basin Drilling on Different Trends
Barnett
40
20
400
0
Eagle Ford
250
200
200
150
100
50
0

7. Total Wages In Texas Shale*
Percent
15
Permian Basin Wage
Growth*
Employment
Percent
15
Barnet Wage Growth
10
Wages
5
0
10
-5
-10
5
Eagle Ford
15
10
0
5
-5
-10
2006
0
-5
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2007
2008
2009
2013
*Growth rates are year-to-year. Adjusted using U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures.
SOURCE: Quarterly Census of Wages and Employment; Bureau of Labor Statistics
2010
2011
2012
2013

8. Outlook

9. Refining & Petrochemicals

10. Refining
Values
60
50
Gulf Coast Downstream Margins
Ethylene cash margins*
Pace refining margins: Gulf Coast**
40
30
20
10
0
Aug-2009
*Based on ethane feedstock (cents/lbs).
**Based on West Texas Sour - RFG ($/barrel).
SOURCE: Oil and Gas Journal.
Aug-2010
Aug-2011
Aug-2012
Aug-2013

11. International Trade

12. International Trade

13. International Trade
Real exports and Imports
Percent
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
Aug-2009
Exports
Imports
Aug-2010
NOTE: Three-month year-to-year growth. Adjusted using Houston Consumer Price index
Aug-2011
Aug-2012
Aug-201

14. International Trade
U.S. Shale pushes out lighter foreign oils.
Thousands of barrels
250,000
Heavier Oils*
Lighter Oils**
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
Jan-2013
Jul-2012
Jan-2012
Jul-2011
Jan-2011
Jul-2010
Jan-2010
Jul-2009
Jan-2009
Jul-2008
Jan-2008
Jul-2007
Jan-2007
Jul-2006
Jan-2006
Jul-2005
Jan-2005
Jul-2004
Jan-2004
Jul-2003
*Oils with API of 25 degrees or less.
**Oils with API of more than 25 degrees.
Jan-2003
Jul-2002
Jan-2002
Jul-2001
Jan-2001
Jul-2000
Jan-2000
0

15. Labor Market Conditions

16. Texas employment growth volatile in 2013

17. Texas employment growth volatile in 2013

18. Texas employment growth volatile in 2013

19. Labor Market Conditions

20. Real Estate

21. Real Estate

22. Real Estate

23. Real Estate

24. Outlook

25. Outlook

26. Outlook

27. Outlook

28. The Texas Economy
Jesse Thompson
Regional Business Economist
The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Houston Branch
October 2013