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The Labor Market Situation - January 2014 Jobs Report
1. DRAFT
The Labor Market Situation
in January
February 10, 2014
Dr. Jennifer Hunt
Chief Economist
U.S. Department of Labor
0 Filename/RPS Number
Office of the Chief Economist 0
2. DRAFT
Payroll survey: unexpectedly weak
1-month change, in thousands
January 2014
142
December 2013
89
November 2013
272
12-month change, in thousands
January 2013 to 2014:
2,291
Average:
191
1 Filename/RPS Number
Office of the Chief Economist 1
3. DRAFT
But the longer trend still shows steady growth
2 Filename/RPS Number
Office of the Chief Economist 2
4. Two employment surveys:
CES & Payroll-concept-adjusted CPS
DRAFT
Household and payroll survey employment,
seasonally adjusted, March 2001 January 2014
3 Filename/RPS Number
Office of the Chief Economist 3
5. DRAFT
Explanation
Last month we blamed
Idiosyncratic: accountants, motion pictures
Weather: construction
So how do these look this time?
4 Filename/RPS Number
Office of the Chief Economist 4
7. DRAFT
Employment growth by super-sector over the year
6 Filename/RPS Number
Office of the Chief Economist 6
8. DRAFT
Construction saw the largest 1-month increase since 2007
(but this may be seasonal or rebound from December)
1-month change, in thousands
January 2014
48
December 2013
-22
November 2013
32
12-month change, in thousands
January 2013 to 2014:
179
Average:
15
7 Filename/RPS Number
Office of the Chief Economist 7
9. DRAFT
Details
Construction (January reference week mild; context of layoff month)
Dec: -22,000
Jan: +48,000
Accountants still MIA
Dec: -32,000
Jan: +5000
Motion pictures
Dec: -11,000
Jan: +6000
Retail (return from unusually high in Dec)
Dec: +63,000
Jan: -13,000
8 Filename/RPS Number
Office of the Chief Economist 8
10. DRAFT
Employment growth by super-sector peak to trough
9 Filename/RPS Number
Office of the Chief Economist 9
13. DRAFT
LFP has been essentially flat since October
January 2014:
December 2013:
November 2013:
January 2013:
12Filename/RPS Number
63.0 %
62.8 %
63.0 %
63.6 %
Office of the Chief Economist
12
14. Long-term unemployment rate ticked down,
but remains highest since 1983
January 2014:
December 2013:
November 2013:
January 2013:
13Filename/RPS Number
DRAFT
2.3 %
2.5 %
2.6 %
3.0 %
Office of the Chief Economist
13
20. DRAFT
Private-sector growth over past 5 recoveries
Recovery comparison: private sector job growth
55 months after official end of the recession
14000
12000
jobs added (in thousands)
10000
8000
Mar-‐7 5
6000
Nov-‐82
Mar-‐9 1
Nov-‐01
4000
Jun-‐09
+ 12,737
+ 11,970
+ 8,488
+ 4,523
+ 7,318
2000
0
-‐2000
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
21
24
27
30
33
36
39
42
45
48
51
54
months after the official end of recession
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics
19Filename/RPS Number
Office of the Chief Economist
19