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- 1. The Labor Market Situation in November December 5, 2014 Heidi Shierholz, Ph.D. Chief Economist UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
- 2. Total nonfarm employment increased 321,000 that’s the 10th consecutive month above 200,000 jobs 1-month change, in thousands • November 2014 321 • October 2014 243 • September 2014 271 12-month change, in thousands • November 2013 to 2014: 2,734 • Average: 228 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics www.bls.gov/ces 1 Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy 1
- 3. Private sector employment increased 314,000 that’s 57 consecutive months of growth, the longest streak on record 1-month change, in thousands • November 2014 314 • October 2014 236 • September 2014 249 12-month change, in thousands • November 2013 to 2014: 2,657 • Average: 221 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics www.bls.gov/ces 2 Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy 2
- 4. Employment growth was broad-based across industries Over-the-month employment change, November 2014, seasonally adjusted, in thousands 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% Over-the-month employment change, November 2014, seasonally adjusted, in thousands 4 3 1 0.0% 0 7 17 15 20 20 28 32 38 50 86 Professional and Business Services* Retail Trade* Education and Health Services* Leisure and Hospitality Manufacturing* Construction Financial Activities* Transportation and Warehousing* Other Services* Government Information Wholesale Trade Utilities Mining and Logging 1-Month Net Change Prior 12-month average -15.0 0.0 15.0 30.0 45.0 60.0 75.0 90.0 105.0 *denotes significance *denotes significance Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics www.bls.gov/ces 3 Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy 3
- 5. Employment growth in 2014 increasing in industries with higher wages Change in Job Growth vs Average Earnings by Industry, Pick Up (+)/Slow Down (-) in Percentage change in Employment, 2014 vs 2013 (percentage points) *Excludes Temporary Help Services (shown separately). Note: Data for 2014 through November. Average earnings for Temporary Help Services lags one month and is not seasonally adjusted Source: CEA Calculations, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics www.bls.gov/ces 4 Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy 4
- 6. Average hourly earnings growth steady at 2.1%, but low inflation has resulted in some small real wage growth Average hourly earnings, all private sector employees, January 2007 to November 2014, seasonally adjusted Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics, www.bls.gov/ces 5 Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy 5
- 7. Unemployment unchanged over the month, remains lowest since July 2008 Civilian unemployment rate, by duration of unemployment, January 1990 to November 2014, seasonally adjusted Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey www.bls.gov/cps 6 Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy 6
- 8. Why are employment and unemployment different? Different surveys, different concepts, & different error Household survey adjusted to payroll survey concept, January 2004 to November 2014, seasonally adjusted Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey, www.bls.gov/cps http://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/ces_cps_trends.pdf 7 Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy 7
- 9. Labor force participation steady since October 2013 Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate, January 1990 to November 2014, seasonally adjusted November 2014: 62.8% October 2014: 62.8% September 2014: 62.7% November 2013: 63.0% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey www.bls.gov/cps 8 Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy 8
- 10. Employment rate age 25 to 54, flat this month significantly up from November 2013 Employment-to-Population Ratio and Labor Force Participation, age 25 to 54, January 1990 to November 2014, seasonally adjusted Employment to Population November 2014: 76.9% October 2014: 76.9% September 2014: 76.7% November 2013: 76.0% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey www.bls.gov/cps Labor Force Participation November 2014: 80.8% October 2014: 80.8% September 2014: 80.7% November 2013: 80.9% 9 Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy 9
- 11. Involuntary part-time employment ticked down down significantly since November 2013, but still above pre-recession Part time for economic reasons, as a percent of total employment, seasonally adjusted, 2004 to 2014 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey www.bls.gov/cps 10Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy 10
- 12. 2.0 million jobseekers found employment, 2.2 million dropped out of the labor force Labor Force Status Flows out of Unemployment, January 1990 to November 2014, seasonally adjusted Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey www.bls.gov/cps 11Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy 11
- 13. Dr. Heidi Shierholz Chief Economist UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF LABOR