New business opportunities with zero carbon thinking and how California suburban lifestyle may be the answer to global warming and the need to adapt to a warmer climate through IT - the Energy Internet

1. Using ICT to “adapt” rather than
“mitigate” Global Warming
Bill St. Arnaud
Bill.st.arnaud@gmail.com
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2. Theme of this talk
• We have already lost the battle to save the planet from
extreme climate change. Rather than focusing on
reducing energy consumption, (Mitigation) we now
need to focus on surviving climate change (Adaptation)
• Explosion of data and energy consumption by
computers and networks is contributing to energy
demand and CO2 emissions
• Use the Internet and IT, in combination with electric
vehicle to build the “Energy Internet”

3. Although there is less news coverage
global warming has not disappeared

4. Half of US experienced record
droughts or deluges in 2011
2010 warmest year ever – we
are only at the start of the
curve of the hockey stick. The
worst is yet to come

5. Climate Change is not reversible
• Climate Change is not like acid rain,
water management or ozone
destruction where environment will
quickly return to normal once
source of pollution is removed
• GHG emissions will stay in the
atmosphere for thousands of years
and continue to accumulate
Weaver et al., GRL (2007)
• Planet will continue to warm up All we hope to achieve is to
even if we drastically reduce slow down the rapid rate of
emissions climate change

6. Climate tipping points
• USGS report finds that future climate shifts
have been underestimated and warns of
debilitating abrupt shift in climate that would
be devastating.
• Tipping elements in the Earth's climate -
National Academies of Science
– “Society may be lulled into a false sense of
security by smooth projections of global
change. Our synthesis of present
knowledge suggests that a variety of
tipping elements could reach their critical
point within this century under
anthropogenic climate change. “

7. Blame it on Canada
How warming in the Arctic affects weather in Texas and Europe
• Warming Arctic slowing down jet stream
– There’s been a 20 percent drop in the zonal
wind speeds.
• As get stream slows down, it leads to those
bigger, long lived kinks in the jet stream.
– That amplification is associated with
persistent weather patterns that lead to
“extremes” like drought, flooding and heat
waves.
• Those slow-moving, persistent waves of
weather energy may have played a role in the
big snows that hammered Europe this
winters, as well as the extreme drought that
hit South West US
• http://summitcountyvoice.com/2012/01/14/
global-warming-revenge-of-the-atmosphere/
7

8. Future Droughts
• Palmer Drought Severity Index,
or PDSI.
• The most severe drought in
recent history, in the Sahel region
of western Africa in the 1970s, had
a PDSI of -3 or -4.
• By 2030 Western USA could see
-4 to -6. Drought in Texas clearly
caused by global warming:
http://goo.gl/QjHRS
• By 2100 some parts of the U.S.
and Latin America could see -8 to -
10 PDSI, while Mediterranean
areas could see drought in the -15
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/39741525/ns/us_new
or -20 range. s-environment/

9. Dramatic changes in precipitation
• Every continent has suffered record rainfalls
• Rains submerged one-fifth of Pakistan, a
thousand-year deluge swamped Nashville and
storms just north of Rio caused the deadliest
landslides Brazil has ever seen.
• Observed increase in precipitation in the last few
decades has been due in large part to a
disproportionate increase in heavy and extreme
precipitation rates which are exceeding
predictions made in models

10. Western Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS)
• Sits on land below sea level
• Can easily break up once sea water gets
under ice
• Originally thought that breakup would
take hundreds of years
• New evidence indicates that breakup
will happen within 40 years when planet
warms up 1C (we are already up .8C)
•S ea levels would be 3.3m – 4.8m
•Ice collapsed as recent as 125,000 years
ago
•IPCC says ice is one of the poorest
understood areas
http://news.discovery.com/earth/how-stable-is-
the-west-antarctic-ice-sheet.html
Sea levels may rise 3x faster than predicted by
IPCC
http://climateprogress.org/2009/12/09/sea-level-
rise-six-feet-three-times-faster-than-the-ipcc-
estimat/

11. Climate Forecasts
• MIT report predicts median
temperature forecast of 5.2°C
– 11°C increase in Northern Canada
& Europe
– http://globalchange.mit.edu/pubs/abstract.p
hp?publication_id=990
MIT
• Last Ice age average global
temperature was 5-6°C cooler than
today
– Most of Canada & Europe was
under 2-3 km ice
• Nearly 90 per cent of new scientific
findings reveal global climate
disruption to be worse, and
progressing more rapidly, than
expected.
• http://www.skepticalscience.com/pics/Freud
enburg_2010_ASC.pdf

12. What does 1C average temperature
mean?
• In the 1700s – when global average
temperature was 1C colder than now, New
Yorkers could walk from Manhattan to Staten
Island on ice as thick as 8 feet
– http://green.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/01/31/in-
the-little-ice-age-lessons-for-today/
12

13. CO2 vs Temperature
Rule of Thumb: 1°C for 10 ppm CO2

14. Climate Sensitivity
The Worst is yet to come
Rapid Increase in the
Greenhouse Gas CO2
Since Industrial Era
Began
Medieval
Warm Little
Period Ice Age
1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000

15. Urgency of Action
• “We’re uncertain about the magnitude of climate change, which is
inevitable, because we’re talking about reaching levels of carbon
dioxide in the atmosphere not seen in millions of years.
• You might think that this uncertainty weakens the case for action, but it
actually strengthens it.
• This risk of catastrophe, rather than the details of cost-benefit
calculations, makes the most powerful case for strong climate policy.
Nobel Laureate Paul • Current projections of global warming in the absence of action are just
Krugman too close to the kinds of numbers associated with doomsday scenarios.
It would be irresponsible — it’s tempting to say criminally irresponsible
http://www.nytimes.com/201 — not to step back from what could all too easily turn out to be the
0/04/11/magazine/11Econom edge of a cliff.”
y-t.html?pagewanted=1

16. New Challenge: Climate Adaptation
• Obama’s National Science Advisor John Holdren
“Mitigation alone won’t work, because the climate is
already changing, we’re already experiencing
impacts….A mitigation only strategy would be
insanity,”
• Equal emphasis given to adaptation – avoiding the
unmanageable, and adaptation – managing the
unavoidable.”
• Obama’s Climate Adaptation Executive Order
– http://www.stumbleupon.com/su/1tU8go/www.good.is/post/obama-s-secret-climate-adaptation-plan/

17. Impact of ICT sector
According to IEA ICT will represent 40% of all energy consumption by 2030
www.smart2020.org
ICT represent 8% of global electricity consumption
Future Broadband- Internet alone is expected to consume 5% of all electricity
http://www.ee.unimelb.edu.au/people/rst/talks/files/Tucker_Green_Plenary.pdf

18. Growth Projections Data Centers
• Half of ICT consumption is data centers
• In ten years 50% of today’s Data Centers and major science
facilities in the US will have insufficient power and cooling;*
• By 2012, half of all Data Centers will have to relocate or
outsource applications to another facility.*
• CO2 emissions from US datacenters greater than all CO2
emissions from Netherlands or Argentina
http://bit.ly/cW6jEY
• Coal fuels much of Internet 'cloud,' Greenpeace says
http://bit.ly/bkeSec
• Data centers will consume 12% of electricity in the US by
2020 (TV Telecom)
Source: Gartner; Meeting the DC power and cooling challenge

19. R&E biggest consumer!!
Per employee Per sector
Australian Computer Society Study
http://www.acs.org.au/attachments/ICFACSV4100412.pdf

20. Digital vs Traditional appliances

21. The Falsehood of Energy Efficiency
• Most current approaches to reduce carbon footprint are focused on increased
energy efficiency of equipment and processes
– No question it save money, but does little for the environment
• Greenpeace Report “Electricity demand of IT remains on the rise, efficiency can only
slow emission growth. In order to achieve the reductions necessary to keep the
sector’s emissions in check and maintains afe levels of global greenhouse gases,
clean energy needs to become the primary source of power for IT infrastructure.
– Greenpeace “How dirty is your data”
http://www.greenpeace.org/international/Global/international/publications/cli
mate/2011/Cool%20IT/dirty-data-report-greenpeace.pdf
• But greater efficiency can paradoxically increase energy consumption by reducing
overall cost service and therefore stimulates demand
– Khazzoom-Brookes postulate (aka Jevons paradox - not to be confused with
rebound effect)
• The issue is not the amount of energy that we use, but the type of energy

22. Zero Carbon strategy essential
• Zero carbon strategy using renewable energy critically important if
governments mandate carbon neutrality, or if there is a climate
catastrophe
• With a zero carbon strategy growth in demand for services will not effect
GHG emissions
– Anything times zero is always zero
• Wind and solar power are most likely candidates because of opportunity
cost/benefit analysis especially time to deploy
– Nuclear has high opportunity cost because of time to deploy
– http://climateprogress.org/2008/12/14/stanford-study-part-1-wind-
solar-baseload-easily-beat-nuclear-and-they-all-best-clean-coal/
• But renewable energy sites are usually located far from cities and
electrical distribution systems are not designed to carry load
– http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2008/12/pdf/renewable_tra
nsmission.pdf
– Local wind/solar will be an important component

23. Get off the Grid!
• Purchasing green power locally is expensive with significant transmission line losses
–Demand for green power within cities expected to grow dramatically
• ICT facilities DON’T NEED TO BE LOCATED IN CITIES
–-Cooling also a major problem in cities
• But most renewable energy sites are very remote and impractical to connect to
electrical grid.
– Can be easily reached by an optical network
– Provide independence from electrical utility and high costs in wheeling power
– Savings in transmission line losses (up to 15%) alone, plus carbon offsets can pay
for moving ICT facilities to renewable energy site
•ICT is only industry ideally suited to relocate to renewable energy sites
– Also ideal for business continuity in event of climate catastrophe

24. MIT to build zero carbon data center in
Holyoke MA
• The data center will be managed and funded by
the four main partners in the facility: the
Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cisco
Systems, the University of Massachusetts and
EMC.
• It will be a high-performance computing
environment that will help expand the research
and development capabilities of the companies
and schools in Holyoke
– http://www.greenercomputing.com/news/2009/06/11/ci
sco-emc-team-mit-launch-100m-green-data-center

25. Many examples
Ecotricity in UK builds windmills at
Wind powered data centers
data center locations with no capital
cost to user
Hydro-electric powered data centers
Data Islandia ASIO solar powered data centers
Digital Data Archive
17

26. GreenStar Network
World’s First Zero Carbon Cloud/Internet

27. OpenFlow Follow the wind/Follow the sun
Canadian GSN European GSN
Domain Domain
Export VM
Notify EU
Cloud Manager
Cloud Manager Cloud Manager
Internet
Dynamically Configure
IP Tunnel
Host Network Host
Resource Manager Resource
• Shudown VM
• Copy Image • Update VM Context
Mantychore2 • Start VM
Shared
VM storage
Shared
storage VM
Lightpath
Optical switch Optical switch
Host Cloud Proxy
Cloud Proxy Host

28. AMD, HP & Clarkson U GreenCloud
•Demonstrate the feasibility of deploying a network
of Performance Optimized Datacenters (PODs),
geographically distributed to exploit the availability of
renewable energy for its operation.
• Optimizing the utilization of the available renewable
power for computing by intelligently redistributing
computational load;
•Minimizing losses associated with power
transmission by placing the PODs near the power
source;
•Providing energy and design efficiency through the
use of additional passive cooling for the PODs
•Use the wind power that is currently stranded, i.e.
not-delivered to the grid due to the T&D constraints.

29. National GreenCloud Vision

30. Carbon rewards instead of carbon
taxes?
• Governments have been wrestling with the challenge of how to reduce CO2
emissions
– E.g US Congress Cap and trade bill
– BC Carbon taxes
• Rather than penalize consumers and businesses for carbon emissions, can
we reward them for reducing their carbon emissions?
– And stimulate important sectors of the economy that plays to our strengths
• Carbon rewards can be virtual products delivered over broadband networks
such movies, books, education, health services, collaborative education and
research technologies etc
• Carbon reward can also be free services (with low carbon footprint) such as
Internet, cell phone, fiber to the home, etc

31. Carbon Reward Strategy – Free
Fiber to the Home
• Provide free high speed Internet and fiber to the home with resale of electrical
and gas power
– http://www.newamerica.net/files/HomesWithTails_wu_slater.pdf
• Customer pays a premium on their gas and electric bill
• Customers encouraged to save money through reduced energy consumption
and reduced carbon output
• Customer NOT penalized if they reduce energy consumption
– May end up paying substantially less then they do now for gas + electricity +
broadband + telephone + cable
• Network operator gets guaranteed revenue based on energy consumption
rather than fickle triple play
– See http://free-fiber-to-the-home.blogspot.com/

32. Get off the Grid Part II
Building the Future
“Energy Internet”
How California’s Suburban Lifestyle
may be the answer to Global
Warming
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33. Current limitations of eVehicles (EV)
• High capital cost due to large cost of batteries
• High operating cost because batteries need to be replaced every 2-5 years
• Limited range, especially in cold weather when battery capacity is reduced
• Battery capacity reduced by up to 1/3 if air conditioning or cabin heating
is required
• Long time to re-charge between trips
– So a small number of short trips within a day can deplete batteries
– Inhibits spontaneity of taking a long trip because of uncertainty of charge state
• Although operational cost (i.e. fuel consumption) is less than traditional
automobile overall amortized cost higher
33

34. Alternative to the battery
• Rather than waiting for perfect battery why not change
the charging system?
• Old world thinking that vehicles must be stationary to
be refueled.
– This was true when using fossil fuels
• But with electric vehicles there is no reason why they
cannot be charged while on the move
• Dynamic (on the move) charging
34

35. Two alternative approaches
• Induction charging with embedded induction pads in the road
– Auckland University company in $70m deal with Qualcomm for
inductive car charging technology
– http://tinyurl.com/73pdksw
– But induction charging requires precise tolerances and alignment
– Difficult to maintain in heavy traffic and inclement weather such as ice
and snow
– Also requires specialized electronics in vehicle
• Capacitive Charging using overhead “electrical umbrellas” -
capabuses
– Currently operation in Shanghai with public buses
– http://www.technologyreview.com/energy/23754/
35

36. New Zealand HaloIPT Induction
Charging
http://www.haloipt.com/
36

37. Shanghai Capabus – Capacitive
Charging
China is experimenting with a
new form of electric bus, known
as Capabus, which runs without
continuous overhead lines (is an
autonomous vehicle) by using
power stored in large
onboard electric double-layer
capacitors (EDLCs), which are
quickly recharged whenever the
vehicle stops at any bus
stop (under so-called electric
umbrellas), and fully charged in
the terminus.
37

38. Next generation dynamic charging
To Grid for feed in tariff
Inverter
Ultra-capacitor
Charging rail
eVehicle with charging whip
20 – 100 meters 38

39. Why not use power from grid for
dynamic charging?
• Most grid systems have large percentage of coal power
– CO2 savings are marginal
– Scant CO2 Benefit from China’s Coal-Powered Electric Cars
– http://green-broadband.blogspot.com/2011/10/scant-co2-benefit-
from-chinas-coal.html
• Within 3- 4 years it is expected electricity from solar panels will be
cheaper than from grid
– http://e360.yale.edu/feature/solar_power_nrg_president_crane_ties_
future_to_renewable_energy/2462/
• Grid interconnection fees, transformers, debt retirement charges,
etc significantly drive up costs
– However in some locations using solar panel to feed power to grid
may allow for additional revenue
39

40. Initial target markets
• Drive through banks, fast food restaurants, parking garages,
universities, golf courses, etc
– “Will that be fries with your free electrical charge?”
– Complete package of PV system on roof connected to ultra-capacitor
and charge rail
– When PV is not charging vehicles it can be making money from feed in
tariff
– Guaranteed 6-10% return even if not a single vehicle charged
• Initial target vehicles: campus service vehicles, utility fleets, golf
carts, ride sharing, early EV adopters
• Eventually deployed at toll plazas, on/off ramps, stop lights and
intersections
40

41. The Future – “Energy Internet”
• eVehicle becomes more than a transportation system – it
also becomes an energy transport system to transfer
energy between dynamic charging stations
– E.g. power from under utilized charging stations can be
delivered by eVehicle to charging stations that are heavily
used
– Or power can be brought to the home to provide backup
power to the home
• Dynamic charging station becomes energy packet
router/switch!
• Rather than eVehicle coming home with depleted
batteries, instead it comes home fully charged in order
to provide power to the home
• eVehicle becomes competitive alternative to the
electrical grid
41

42. Further Reading
• Green Investment Opportunity for small business - on the move electric car
charging
http://green-broadband.blogspot.com/2010/04/green-investment-opportunity-
for-small.html
• How California suburban sprawl could be the answer to global warming
http://green-broadband.blogspot.com/2010/12/how-california-suburban-sprawl-
could-be.html
• The "Energy Internet" - how the Internet + renewable energy can transform the
economy
http://green-broadband.blogspot.com/2011/10/energy-internet-how-internet-
renewable.html#more
• Electric roads and Internet will allow coast to coast driving with no stopping and
no emissions
http://green-broadband.blogspot.com/2011/05/electric-roads-and-internet-will-
allow.html
42

43. Let’s Keep The Conversation Going
E-mail list
Bill.St.Arnaud@gmail.com
Blogspot
Bill St. Arnaud
http://green-broadband.blogspot.com
Twitter
http://twitter.com/BillStArnaud