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Screen digest Ronan de Renesse
1.
Mobile Media Making the
app market pay Ronan de Renesse Senior Analyst, IHS Screen Digest Analyst June, 2011
2.
Application store/smartphone combination revolutionised
mobile media • Smartphones offer better tech for rich media co su pt o o mobile ( ed a consumption on ob e (WiFi, , memory, processing, power, screen size) • Applications stores have broken operators’ walled-gardens and fuelled innovation • Improved browsing experience has brought online and mobile together Android Market • Remaining issues: • Addressable market still small • Monetisation can be difficult • Over crowded market place • Device fragmentation Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 2
3.
UK leads European
smartphone market EU5: Smartphone installed base (m) iOS installed base by country (m) 180 20 18 160 16 140 14 120 12 10 100 8 80 6 60 4 40 2 0 20 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 France Germany Italy Spain UK 2011 2014 Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 3
4.
Smartphone market was
a three-horse race Europe: 2010 smartphone installed Europe: 2015 smartphone installed base market share by OS (%) base market share by OS (%) 3.7% 5.1% 4.0% 7.9% 22.9% 0.3% 6.0% 32.7% 38.3% 20.2% 47.9% 11.0% iPhone Android BlackBerry iPhone Android BlackBerry Symbian Windows Others Symbian Windows Others Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 4
5.
Apple dominates 2010
app revenues 2010: leading application stores' share • Apple’s App Store took 82.5% of pp pp of revenues (%) - total €1 6bn €1.6bn revenues from the four leading stores 7.6% in 2010 with revenues of €1.3bn. 4.9% Apple will maintain its lead with 5.0% 5 0% around 60% market share among g leading stores to 2014. • In January 2011, Apple passed 10bn total downloads. By May 2011 downloads 2011, Google had served 4.5bn – with Nokia and RIM some distance 82.5% behind. Apple: App Store • Despite growth in downloads, Google Google: Android Market has so far struggled to monetise Nokia: Ovi Store many Android Market users. But y RIM: BlackBerry App World improvements are on the way. Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 5
6.
…but Android Market
will catch-up fairly q quickly y Application stores revenue forecast (€bn) 7 6 5 4 Blackberry App World Nokia Ovi Store 3 Google Android Market Apple App Store 2 1 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 6
7.
What about others? Copyright
© 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 7
8.
Games is the
leading app category World App Store downloads (bn) Q1 2011: major publishers’ iOS 10 releases 9 EA Mobile 8 Capcom 7 Glu Mobile 6 Gameloft 5 Digital Chocolate 4 Namco 3 Hands-On Mobile 2 Disney Mobile 1 0 THQ Wireless 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 0 2 4 6 8 10 Games Others Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
9.
The application market
goes beyond distributing repurposed content to mobile g p p Number of apps by TV network • For TV companies, mobile applications offer the (total = 78) opportunity to: t it t • increase the length of the relationship with MTV NBC consumers by making content accessible anywhere at anytime • create a more intimate contact with the audience with Fox Disney interactive features evolving around key TV CBS programmes • improve brand image by creating ‘cool’ apps p g y g pp Number of apps by g pp y genre Sports • increase viewership and address an audience Travel unreachable on any other platforms • generate additional revenues through paid News Games downloads/subscriptions and/or advertising • Popular applications tend to be more innovative Lifestyle by taking advantage of the mobile experience to Entertainment bring another dimension to existing services. Finance Others Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 9
10.
Online freemium music
providers see mobile as a way to improve their business case • Spotify, Deezer both launched mobile applications on Android and iPhone/iPod Touch in 2009 • Spotify: 1m paying subs from 6.7m active users in a region g resistant to paying for music i t tt i f i • Deezer: 800,000 paying subscribers • Mobile operators embrace the unlimited music on-demand craze • 3UK bundled a Spotify premium subscription with its latest Android handset • Orange made a strategic investment in Deezer in 2010 and also bundles it with some of its services Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 10
11.
But, rich media
is still only a small subset of mobile content and data revenues Rich media as % of data & content revenues 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Music Games TV & Video Application stores Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 11
12.
Mobile won’t offset
decline in traditional media revenue streams unless bundled Top-tier customer Piracy migration Over-the-top Increased ARPU Core Core media Increased media Core Customer ownership services p competition services media Blended ARPU ARPU services ARPU Reduced churn Tougher ARPU regulation Added value Mobile ARPU Differentiation Mobile ARPU Mobile ARPU Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 12
13.
The mobile data
crunch. Who will pay for data? • Smartphones, mobile broadband and UK mobile data market M2M are set to drive exponential 900 14 mobile data traffic growth 800 12 • Increasing competition and heavy 700 subsidies on data/smartphone 10 bundles will endanger mobile data Revenu per GB (£) 600 monetisation affic (PB) 500 8 ue • There are three options for operators: 400 Tra 6 • Add extra capacity on the network and increase prices 300 4 • Content delivery optimisation (IMB, 200 throttling, QoS, WiFi) • Ch Charge content providers ( bil d id (mobile data 100 2 termination fees) 0 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 • Video is set to contribute to more than half of mobile data traffic by Smart phones Mobile Broadband Revenue per GB 2015 Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 13
14.
Tablets: similar apps
but better monetisation - US case studyy US: top grossing iPad apps US: average price per paid game ($) 1% 1% 2% 1% 2% 1% 0.3% 3% 4 4% 4% 4% 0.3% 3% 3.5 3% 4% 3 1% 1% 2% 2.5 63% 2 1.5 Books Business Education Entertainment Games Healthcare & Fitness 1 Lifestyle Medical Music Navigation News Photography 0.5 Productivity Reference Social Networking Sports S t Travel T l Utilities Utiliti 0 Weather iPhone iPad Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 14
15.
Thanks ronan.derenesse@ihs.com Tel: 44 T l
+44 207 424 2865 Twitter: @Ronan_SD
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