part 2 - since 1st exam

1. Forum-Nexus International Finance Class – Part 2

2. Brian David Butler Brian Butler is a specialist in international economic analysis, and is founder of the prestigious “GloboTrends“ ( www.globotrends.com ) online economics site, which has been featured as syndicated content on Nouriel Roubini’s RGE Monitor, Emerginvest.com, Business Week Exchange, Wikinvest.com, and other leading news outlets. Brian earned an MBA with distinction from the Thunderbird School of Global Management and he has taught Finance, Economics and Global Trade at Thunderbird’s Global MBA program in Miami. Brian is currently a teacher and country director for Forum-Nexus study abroad program in Brazil. He previously worked as financial analyst for the Columbia University Business School and for NextLogics, a boutique investment and consulting firm focused on early stage endeavors with social impact. A global citizen, Brian was born in Canada, raised in Switzerland (where he attended international schools), educated in the U.S., started his career with a Japanese company, moved to New York to work as a financial analyst, married a Brazilian, and has traveled extensively in Latin America, Asia, Europe and North America. [email_address] [email_address] LinkedIn/briandbutler Skype: briandbutler

3. Forum-Nexus International Finance Class – France – last day before trip to Italy… Wednesday July 15 th , 2009

25. Pessimistic Forecast “ Tale of 2 Depressions” Source: “A Tale of Two Depressions” , June 4, 2009, Barry Eichengreen and Kevin O’Rourke, © voxEU.org

26. If you look just at the USA… If you look just at the US, you might be tempted to believe that this “Great Recession” of 2009 is not as bad as the “Great Depression of 1929-32

28. A tale of 2 “GLOBAL” depressions: Source: “A Tale of Two Depressions” , June 4, 2009, Barry Eichengreen and Kevin O’Rourke, © voxEU.org

29. A tale of 2 “GLOBAL” depressions: Source: “A Tale of Two Depressions” , June 4, 2009, Barry Eichengreen and Kevin O’Rourke, © voxEU.org

30. The Volume of World Trade, Now vs Then (updated) Source: “A Tale of Two Depressions” , June 4, 2009, Barry Eichengreen and Kevin O’Rourke, © voxEU.org

31. Industrial output, four big Europeans, then and now Source: “A Tale of Two Depressions” , June 4, 2009, Barry Eichengreen and Kevin O’Rourke, © voxEU.org

32. Industrial output, four big Europeans, then and now Source: “A Tale of Two Depressions” , June 4, 2009, Barry Eichengreen and Kevin O’Rourke, © voxEU.org

33. Industrial output, four Non-Europeans, then and now Source: “A Tale of Two Depressions” , June 4, 2009, Barry Eichengreen and Kevin O’Rourke, © voxEU.org

34. Industrial output, four Non-Europeans, then and now Source: “A Tale of Two Depressions” , June 4, 2009, Barry Eichengreen and Kevin O’Rourke, © voxEU.org

35. Industrial output, four small Europeans, then and now. Source: “A Tale of Two Depressions” , June 4, 2009, Barry Eichengreen and Kevin O’Rourke, © voxEU.org

36. Industrial output, four small Europeans, then and now. Source: “A Tale of Two Depressions” , June 4, 2009, Barry Eichengreen and Kevin O’Rourke, © voxEU.org

43. As late as 2008, the IMF forecasted growth in 2009

45. Forum-Nexus International Finance Class Italy– (1 st class after Midterm EXAM) Saturday July 18 th , 2009

60. Banks Business model = fragile Borrow short, lend long Note: this is the HEART of the issue for why banks are “ fragile ” business models (answer to other question). This is why government issues guarantees (FDIC), which results in “moral hazard”, and why we need regulation

76. SPEND today!!! (don’t save)

87. Forum-Nexus International Finance Class Italy– (2 st class after Midterm EXAM) Monday July 20 th , 2009

102. Series of Crises

109. Forum-Nexus International Finance Class Italy– (2 st class after Midterm EXAM) Tuesday July 21 st , 2009

112. Forum-Nexus International Finance Class Greece– (1 st class) Friday July 24 th , 2009

162. Forum-Nexus International Finance Class Athens, Greece– (2 nd class) Saturday July 25 th , 2009

178. Foreign reserves = I.O.U’s (2008-09) https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2188rank.html

196. Forum-Nexus International Finance Class Rhodes, Greece– (1 st class) Monday, July 27 th , 2009

199. National Accounts -spotlight http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/dd14a46e-e72f-11dd-aef2-0000779fd2ac.html# Note the Inverse- relationship between the “Current Account Balance” and the “Reserve Accumulation”

206. “ Buddy, Can You Spare $5 Trillion?”, John Mauldin, July 10, 2009

218. Demographics & the Debt By 2050; a third of the rich world’s population will be over 60 “ The demographic bill is likely to be (10x) ten times bigger than the fiscal cost of the financial crisis.” The Economist, June 2009