YoY export plunged back above-20% in Apr 09. It fell 26.3% YoY compared with the slower 16% and 15.7% YoY declines in Feb and Mar respectively after the 29% YoY collapse in Jan. The high base effect last year was a factor (Apr 08: +20.9% YoY – one of the three months of over-20% YoY increase in 2008), mostly from sharp gains in commodity prices was a factor. But YoY fall in imports eased, resulting in smaller trade surplus for the month. Imports were down by a smaller quantum of 22.4% YoY (Mar 09: -28.7% YoY), causing the trade surplus to narrow to RM7.36b (Mar 09: +RM12.5b). Overall “better” MoM trends. Although sequentially exports dipped 5.6% after the increases in Mar (+10.1%) and Feb (+3.4%), the decline was mild relative to the average monthly drop of 11% between Oct 08 and Jan 09. Shipments of key exports like E&E, palm oil and chemical & chemical products have now recorded MoM rises for 2-3 months up to Apr. Meanwhile, lower oil & gas-related exports such as crude oil, refined petroleum products and LNG in Apr versus Mar was mainly due to maintenance works. Imports recorded their second consecutive MoM increase, rising 8.8% after the 12.8% jump in Feb that ended five straight months of declines. Year-to-date numbers prompt revisions to full-year figures. For Jan-Apr 09, exports and imports shrank by 21.7% YoY and 27.3% YoY versus +12.6% YoY and +7% YoY in Jan-Apr 08. The trade surplus during the period was RM40.1b (Jan-Apr 08: +RM39.1b). Factoring in the data for the first trimester of the year, we have adjusted our full-year forecast to 19.5 export contraction (previous: -16%; 2008: 9.6%), 24.5% import decline (previous: -13.2%; 2008: 3.3%) and a RM140.3b trade surplus (previous: RM104.7b; 2008: RM141.9b). Mixed bag of data suggests external trade activities are stabilising. The mixed bag of data of late has a nicer ring compared with the consistently negative YoY and MoM numbers between Oct 08 and Jan 09. This could which suggest external trade activities are stabilising after the earlier plunges.

1. Equity Research
PP11072/03/2010 (023549)
Economics 5 June 2009
External Trade,
Apr ‘09 A mixed bag of data…
YoY export plunged back above-20% in Apr 09. It fell 26.3% YoY
Suhaimi Ilias compared with the slower 16% and 15.7% YoY declines in Feb and
Suhaimi_ilias@maybank-ib.com Mar respectively after the 29% YoY collapse in Jan. The high base
(603) 2297 8682 effect last year was a factor (Apr 08: +20.9% YoY – one of the three
months of over-20% YoY increase in 2008), mostly from sharp gains in
Ramesh Lankanathan commodity prices was a factor.
ramesh@maybank-ib.com
(603) 2297 8685 But YoY fall in imports eased, resulting in smaller trade surplus
for the month. Imports were down by a smaller quantum of 22.4%
YoY (Mar 09: -28.7% YoY), causing the trade surplus to narrow to
RM7.36b (Mar 09: +RM12.5b).
Overall “better” MoM trends. Although sequentially exports dipped
5.6% after the increases in Mar (+10.1%) and Feb (+3.4%), the decline
was mild relative to the average monthly drop of 11% between Oct 08
and Jan 09. Shipments of key exports like E&E, palm oil and chemical
& chemical products have now recorded MoM rises for 2-3 months up
to Apr. Meanwhile, lower oil & gas-related exports such as crude oil,
refined petroleum products and LNG in Apr versus Mar was mainly due
to maintenance works. Imports recorded their second consecutive
MoM increase, rising 8.8% after the 12.8% jump in Feb that ended five
straight months of declines.
Year-to-date numbers prompt revisions to full-year figures. For
Jan-Apr 09, exports and imports shrank by 21.7% YoY and 27.3% YoY
versus +12.6% YoY and +7% YoY in Jan-Apr 08. The trade surplus
during the period was RM40.1b (Jan-Apr 08: +RM39.1b). Factoring in
the data for the first trimester of the year, we have adjusted our full-year
forecast to 19.5 export contraction (previous: -16%; 2008: 9.6%),
24.5% import decline (previous: -13.2%; 2008: 3.3%) and a RM140.3b
trade surplus (previous: RM104.7b; 2008: RM141.9b).
Mixed bag of data suggests external trade activities are
stabilising. The mixed bag of data of late has a nicer ring compared
with the consistently negative YoY and MoM numbers between Oct 08
and Jan 09. This could which suggest external trade activities are
stabilising after the earlier plunges.
Malaysia: External Trade Summary
Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 Jan-Apr 09 2008
Exports (RM b) 39.6 43.6 41.1 162.5 663.5
% YoY (16.0) (15.7) (26.3) (21.7) 9.6
% MoM 3.4 10.1 (5.6) -- --
Imports (RM b) 27.5 31.0 33.8 122.4 521.6
% YoY (27.6) (29.0) (22.4) (27.3) 3.3
% MoM (8.8) 12.8 8.8 -- --
Total Trade (RM b) 67.0 74.6 74.9 284.9 1,185.0
% YoY (21.2) (21.8) (24.6) (24.2) 6.8
% MoM (2.0) 11.2 0.4 -- --
Trade Balance (RM b) 12.1 12.5 7.4 40.1 141.9
Source: Department of Statistics

2. External Trade, Apr 09
Malaysia: Export Growth, Import Growth & Trade Balance
50
40
30
20
10
0
Sep-03
Sep-04
Sep-05
Sep-06
Sep-07
Sep-08
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
May-03
May-04
May-05
May-06
May-07
May-08
(10)
(20)
(30)
(40)
Trade Balance (RM b) Exports (% YoY) Imports (% YoY)
Source: Department of Statistics
Forward-looking indicators further point to improving external
trade conditions. China’s and Singapore’s purchasing managers’ new
export orders index picked up in recent months, while Taiwan’s exports
orders rose three months in a row to USD25.1b in Apr 09 after plunging
from the high of USD32.1b in Aug 08 to USD17.7b in Jan 09. In
addition, Malaysia’s imports of intermediate goods rebounded strongly
MoM in Apr (+11.7%) and Mar (+10.4%) after five months of
contractions.
China, Taiwan, Singapore: Export Order Indicators
65 30
60 20
55 10
50
0
45
(10)
40
(20)
35
30 (30)
25 (40)
20 (50)
Sep-07
Nov-07
Sep-08
Nov-08
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jul-07
Jul-08
May-07
May-08
May-09
Mar-07
Mar-08
Mar-09
China: New Export Orders Index
Singapore: New Export Orders Index
Taiwan: Export Orders (% YoY)
Source: Department of Statistics
Malaysia: Imports of Intermediate Goods
80
60
40
20
0
Oct-01
Oct-06
Apr-99
Apr-04
Feb-00
Jul-00
Feb-05
Jul-05
May-01
May-06
Jan-98
Jun-98
Jan-03
Jun-03
Jan-08
Jun-08
Nov-98
Sep-99
Dec-00
Aug-02
Dec-05
Nov-03
Sep-04
Aug-07
Nov-08
Mar-02
Mar-07
(20)
% YoY % MoM
(40)
Source: Department of Statistics
5 June 2009 Page 2 of 4

3. External Trade, Apr 09
Malaysia: Export Value (RM b)
By Products & Commodities Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr -08 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr -09
Electrical & Electronics (E&E) 17.6 17.4 22.1 14.7 17.0 17.0
Chemicals & Chemical Products 2.9 3.2 3.6 2.3 2.4 2.7
Crude Petroleum 3.6 3.5 3.4 1.5 1.9 1.5
LNG 2.7 2.9 2.5 3.9 3.6 1.9
Palm Oil 3.8 4.9 4.6 2.6 3.0 3.0
Machinery, Appliances & Parts 1.7 2.0 2.0 1.6 1.6 1.5
Wood Products 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.0 1.1 1.1
Refined Petroleum Products 2.3 2.9 2.8 1.8 1.7 1.3
Manufactures of Metal 1.4 2.3 1.6 1.0 1.3 1.2
By Markets
ASEAN 12.5 13.7 14.4 9.9 10.9 8.2
USA 6.0 6.3 7.9 4.1 4.6 4.9
EU 6.3 5.7 6.0 4.1 4.6 4.5
Japan 5.0 5.4 5.5 4.9 4.5 3.7
China 3.8 4.3 5.6 4.1 5.3 5.1
S. Korea 2.3 2.5 2.2 1.9 2.2 1.5
Hong Kong 1.6 1.7 2.7 1.9 2.3 2.3
Source: Department of Statistics
Global: Exports in USD (% YoY)
Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr -09
US 17.1 9.3 5.1 (5.4) (11.5) (21.1) (24.0) (22.1) -
EU 4.9 7.9 (11.8) (23.6) (7.9) (35.2) (35.9) (30.3) -
Germany 4.2 5.2 (11.4) (24.4) (12.3) (33.7) (35.9) (29.5) -
Japan 6.8 9.7 8.0 (15.0) (20.0) (35.7) (46.2) (45.3) (35.7)
UK 2.5 1.0 (13.7) (25.0) (23.8) (33.6) (33.0) (34.0) -
Canada 12.1 18.0 19.3 4.6 1.7 (20.8) (18.3) - -
Mexico 5.5 8.4 (6.4) (16.7) (19.7) (31.5) (29.5) (25.1) (35.6)
Australia 46.2 43.0 26.2 14.3 10.2 (11.2) (4.4) (1.3) -
China 21.1 21.4 19.1 (2.2) (2.8) (17.5) (25.7) (17.1) (22.6)
Russia 44.5 61.7 7.6 (15.7) (25.3) (49.5) (46.2) (47.0) -
India 26.9 10.4 (12.1) (9.9) (3.5) (19.1) (24.3) (37.7) -
Brazil 30.8 41.3 17.4 5.0 (2.9) (26.3) (25.1) (6.4) (12.3)
S. Korea 18.1 27.6 7.8 (19.5) (17.9) (34.2) (18.5) (22.0) (19.0)
Taiwan 18.2 (1.6) (8.3) (23.3) (42.0) (44.1) (28.5) (35.7) (34.2)
Singapore 15.8 15.3 (6.4) (15.7) (20.3) (41.7) (31.2) (28.2) (32.1)
Hong Kong 1.8 3.6 9.5 (4.8) (10.8) (21.4) (22.8) (20.8) (17.8)
Malaysia 14.2 13.9 (8.3) (11.9) (18.7) (35.3) (27.6) (26.0) (34.7)
Thailand 15.5 19.5 4.7 (17.7) (15.7) (25.0) (10.2) (22.0) (24.6)
Indonesia 30.3 28.5 4.9 (2.1) (20.0) (35.5) (32.8) (27.6) (22.9)
Vietnam 40.4 44.8 18.4 (6.2) 4.3 (24.3) 38.6 4.0 (2.2)
Philippines 6.6 1.3 (14.4) (11.4) (40.3) (40.6) (39.1) (30.8) -
* Vietnam export growth in May’09 was -26% YoY
Source: Bloomberg
5 June 2009 Page 3 of 4

4. External Trade, Apr 09
Definition of Ratings
Maybank Investment Bank Research uses the following rating system:
BUY Total return is expected to be above 10% in the next 12 months
HOLD Total return is expected to be between -5% to 10% in the next 12 months
SELL Total return is expected to be below -5% in the next 12 months
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Some common terms abbreviated in this report (where they appear):
Adex = Advertising Expenditure FCF = Free Cashflow PE = Price Earnings
BV = Book Value FV = Fair Value PEG = PE Ratio To Growth
CAGR = Compounded Annual Growth Rate FY = Financial Year PER = PE Ratio
Capex = Capital Expenditure FYE = Financial Year End QoQ = Quarter-On-Quarter
CY = Calendar Year MoM = Month-On-Month ROA = Return On Asset
DCF = Discounted Cashflow NAV = Net Asset Value ROE = Return On Equity
DPS = Dividend Per Share NTA = Net Tangible Asset ROSF = Return On Shareholders’ Funds
EBIT = Earnings Before Interest And Tax P = Price WACC = Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
EBITDA = EBIT, Depreciation And Amortisation P.A. = Per Annum YoY = Year-On-Year
EPS = Earnings Per Share PAT = Profit After Tax YTD = Year-To-Date
EV = Enterprise Value PBT = Profit Before Tax
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5 June 2009 Page 4 of 4