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Infrastructure Thrust


                                                     Fiscal Deficit under
Uncertainty over GAAR                                control




   GST roadmap in
   question                                             Service tax reforms




  CAD a serious concern                              Check on expenditure

        Hostage to foreign inflows


                          Balancing fiscal consolidation with growth
                                                         Thursday, 28th Feb, 2013
Budget in brief                       Balancing fiscal consolidation with growth
The Union Budget 2013-14 promises to return the economy back to a high growth trajectory while at the same
time keeping a strict check on fiscal profligacy that the country can ill afford.

    The fact that the FM was able to contain fiscal deficit to 5.2% of GDP in the current year is a remarkable
    achievement given the overall slow down and the runaway subsidy bill. Going into the new fiscal FY13-14
    the fiscal deficit has been pegged at 4.8% of GDP and this in our opinion is not an unachievable task. P
    Chidambaram as Finance Minister exudes confidence and he has an admirable track record of delivering
    on his promises.

    The Finance Minister has done a great balancing act in a rather difficult year. He has promoted
    manufacturing industry by proposing an Investment Allowance. Further to prevent revenue leakages and
    augment revenue resources he has come out with a number of innovative measures which while being
    ingenious evoke confidence. He has sought to promote investment in infrastructure by issue of tax free
    bonds, freeing up NELP blocks, referring stalled infra projects to the CCI and increasing tax holiday period
    for power sector. In addition several measures to boost investments, savings and capital markets should
    yield handsome dividends as the year rolls by.


    However the resurfacing of the GAAR issue can be a big negative for the markets. Especially given the fact
    that the FM has gone on record to state that the CAD (Current Account Deficit) can only be bridged
    through foreign flows constituting of FDI, FII and ECBs. With the TRC (Tax Residency Certificate) declared
    insufficient, uncertainty over the implementation of the law could lead to foreign investors turning cautious
    and the momentum of the flow of funds could slow down.

            I have been at pains to state over and over again that India, at the present juncture,
            does not have the choice between welcoming and spurning foreign investment.
                                                       2                                      Thursday, 28th Feb, 2013
Real GDP growth rate                Seems to have bottomed out



      9.0%
                                        8.5%
                           8.4%
      8.5%

      8.0%

      7.5%

      7.0%     6.7%

      6.5%                                           6.2%                     6.20%

      6.0%

      5.5%                                                       5.2%

      5.0%
              2008-09     2009-10      2010-11      2011-12     2012-13E     2013-14E




       Whatever may be the final estimate (of the GDP), it will be below India’s potential
       growth rate of 8%
                                               3                              Thursday, 28th Feb, 2013
Fiscal Deficit                      Reigned in to manageable levels


        As % of GDP
7.0%


6.0%                       5.7%

                                               5.1%     5.2%
5.0%          4.8%                                                    4.8%


4.0%


3.0%


2.0%


1.0%


0.0%
             2010-11      2011-12         2012-13BE   2012-13RE    2013-14BE




       Fiscal consolidation cannot be effected only by cutting expenditure. Wherever
       possible, revenues must also be augmented
                                           4                           Thursday, 28th Feb, 2013
Subsidies                               Should be of lesser concern going forward



         Rs. in Crore
300000                                                                                                   3.0%


250000                                                                                                   2.5%


200000                                                                                                   2.0%


150000                                                                                                   1.5%


100000                                                                                                   1.0%


50000                                                                                                    0.5%


     0                                                                                                   0.0%
               2010-11            2011-12        2012-13BE            2012-13RE         2013-14BE

    Food            Fertilizers      Petroleum         Interest and Others        Subsidies as a %of GDP (RHS)




  We must redeem our promise by 2016-17 and bring down the fiscal deficit to 3%, the
  revenue deficit to 1.5% and effective revenue deficit to 0%
                                                   5                                              Thursday, 28th Feb, 2013
Market Borrowings                Not extraordinarily worrying


               Rs. in Crore
     550,000

     500,000

     450,000

     400,000

     350,000

     300,000

     250,000

     200,000

     150,000

     100,000

      50,000
                    2010-11   2011-12   2012-13BE    2012-13RE   2013-14BE




     (Apart from borrowing) There are only three ways before us: FDI, FII or External
     Commercial Borrowing (ECB).
                                        6                             Thursday, 28th Feb, 2013
Budgetary Measures                      Initiatives to kick start growth; control spending

 In his budgetary speech, the Finance Minister has outlined several initiatives to kick start growth, boost
 revenues and target spending.


              Rs. in Crore
    1400000

    1200000

    1000000

     800000

     600000

     400000

     200000

          0
                    2010-11           2011-12        2012-13BE        2012-13RE              2013-14BE

                 Corporation tax                Income tax                        Wealth Tax
                 Customs                        Union Excise Duties               Service Tax

                 Taxes of the Union             Direct                            Indirect



        The economic space that we have gained has given me the confidence to be more
        ambitious in 2013-14.
                                                     7                                           Thursday, 28th Feb, 2013
Revenue measures                        Pragmatic and achievable

In a bid to curtail revenue losses he has introduced several measures like the 1% TDS on immovable
property, withholding tax on royalty payments, voluntary disclosure scheme for Service Tax evaders since
2007 and final witholding tax on share buybacks by unlisted companies
Further there has been no revision of the income slabs and the rates which is pragmatic given the
pressures on revenue. Further a tax on the super rich introduced has gone down well with the markets.
A 15% Investment allowance on plant and machinery over Rs 100 crores should definitely provide a fillip to
asset creation and spur investment in the manufacturing sector. This is over and above the depreciation
rates prevailing.
Surcharge introduced on companies earning a taxable income of Rs 10 crore or more should also help
swell the kitty.
Pruning of the negative list to only two sectors should help increase the gamut of services liable to service
tax
But the biggest clincher is the Voluntary Compliance Encouragement Scheme on Service tax which
proposes to tax the 10,00,000 non service tax payers out of the 17,00,000 lacs registered assessees. This
itself should lead to a healthy collection; although the estimated amount has not been quantified.
Further reduction in STT and introduction of CTT (Commodities transaction Tax) should help lower cost of
transactions for traders in the equity markets.
Non Tax revenue estimates (in the form of divestment, sale of other market securities and enhanced
dividends from PSEs) are also pragmatic and achievable




        Wherever possible, revenues must also be augmented


                                                   8                                      Thursday, 28th Feb, 2013
Indirect Taxes                      Contributing to growth

Status quo on the normal rate of excise duty (12%), service tax rates (12%) and peak customs duty (for non
agricultura imports) maintained. Relief is from the fact that customs duty on crude oil imports was not
hiked (as feared earlier).
Customs duty proposals
 – on leather & leather goods lowered to 5% from 7.5% while concessionary period on environmental
     friendly vehicles extended to FY2015.
 – On pre forms of precious and semi precious stones duty lowered to 2% from 10%
 – Export duty on de-oiled rice bran oil cake withdrawn
 – 10% Duty imposed on export of raw ilmenite & 5% on upgraded ilmenite
 – Significant concessions provided to the aircraft MRO (maintenance, repair and overhaul) industry
 – Raw silk duty increased from 5% to 15%
 – Duty on steam coal and bituminous coal equalized to 2% and CVD of 2%
 – Duty free limit on gold jewellery raised to Rs 50,000 for males and Rs 1,00,000 for female passengers.
 – Duty on imported high end vehicles raised to 100% (75%), +800 cc motorcycles to 75% (60%) and
     yatchs 25% (10%)


Excise duty proposals
 –   Hand made carpets and textile floor coverings of coir / jute and ships and vessels totally exempted.
     Consequently no CVD on imported ships


       There will also be no change in the normal rate of excise duty of 12% and normal rate
       of service tax of 12%
                                                 9                                      Thursday, 28th Feb, 2013
Indirect Taxes (contd)                 VDIS on service tax to provide a windfall

   –   Excise duty on Cigarettes and cigars to be increased by 18%
   –   Excise on SUVs increased to 30% (27%). Not applicable to taxis
   –   Duty on marble increased from Rs 30 / sq mt to Rs 60 / sq mt
   –   Silver manufactured from smelting zinc / lead taxed at 4%
   –   Duty on mobile phones above Rs 2000 raised to 6% (1%)
   –   Branded alternate medicines to be taxed on MRP. Abatement of 35% to exist

   Service Tax further stream lined to have only two sectors on the negative list
   – Vocational Training to institutes affiliated to the State Council of Vocational training
   – testing activities in relation to agricultural produce
   – VDIS scheme for service tax to provide a windfall to the exchequer; although not quantified in the
      budget document




         I hope to entice a large number of assesses to return to the tax fold. I also hope to
         collect a reasonable sum of money
                                                  10                                 Thursday, 28th Feb, 2013
Direct Taxes                         Additional tax on the super rich

Status quo maintained on income slabs and rates as per last year.
However a Rs 2,000 tax credit is provided to every assessee with an income upto Rs 5,00,000
10% surcharge imposed on assessees with income of Rs 1 crore and above
Surcharge raised to 10% (5%) on domestic companies with taxable income above Rs 10 crore. For foreign
companies surcharge increased to 5% (2%)
1st home buyers who take a loan not exceeding Rs 25 lacs to be provided an additional deduction of
interest of Rs 1 lac . This limit is over and above the current Rs 1.5 lacs. This is to be claimed in AY FY14-
15. If limit not exhausted, can be carried over to the next assessment year.
For persons with disability or suffering from certain ailments permissible premium rates of insurance have
been increased to 15% from 10% on the sum assured
Donations to the National Children’s Fund eligible for 100% deduction.
Investment allowance of 15% on investment in Plant & Machinery of over Rs 100 crore provided.
Section 80-IA benefits to power sector eligible date extended to March 2014.
Timeline on concession rate of tax of 15% on repatriation of dividends from a foreign subsidiary to a
domestic parent company extend to FY2013. Further Dividend Distribution Tax set to 0% on that portion of
the dividend distributed by the Indian parent.




        When I need to raise resources, who can I go to except those who are relatively well
        placed in society?
                                                   11                                      Thursday, 28th Feb, 2013
Direct Taxes (contd)                    Revenue leakage loop holes plugged effectively

 Withholding tax on Interest paid on investments made through Rupee denominated long term
 infrastructure bonds to NRIs reduced to 5% from 20%
 Securitization Trusts to be exempt from Income Tax. Tax on income distributed by the Securitization trusts
 to be at the rate of 30% for companies and 25% for individuals / HUF.
 Investor Protection Fund set up by a depository exempt from Income Tax
 Pass through status provided to Category I Alternate Investment Funds (AIF) and Angel Investors
 recognized as Category I AIFs. This is on par with Venture Funds
 RGESS timeline extended 3 consecutive years and income limit augmented to Rs 12 lacs from Rs 10 lacs.
 MF also made an eligible investment.
 1% TDS to be imposed on immovable property transactions above value of Rs 50 lacs. Agricultural land is
 however exempt
 To plug loop holes a withholding tax of 20% is top be imposed on unlisted companies who distribute
 profits through buy back of shares.
 Tax rates on payment of royalties and fees for technical services to non resident Indians hiked to 25% from
 10%. However applicable rates to be as stipulated in the DTAA.




        With a view to improve the reporting of such (immovanle properties) transactions
        and the taxation of capital gains, I propose to apply TDS at the rate of 1% ….
                                                   12                                    Thursday, 28th Feb, 2013
Direct Taxes (contd)                  Lowering of STT to benefit equity traders

 STT (Securities Transaction Tax) reductions are as follows
  –    Equities 0.01% (0.017%)
  – MF / ETF redemptions at fund counters 0.001% (0.25%)
  – MF / ETF purchase / sale on exchanges 0.001% (0.01%)

 CTT (Commodities Transaction Tax) on non agricultural commodities of 0.01% to be introduced. However
 it will be allowed as a deduction.




        It is time to introduce Commodities Transaction Tax (CTT) in a limited way


                                                13                                  Thursday, 28th Feb, 2013
GAAR still unresolved                     FII and FDI flows likely to be affected

  The FM has again raked up the controversy of GAAR by suggesting that the TRC (Tax Residency
  Certificate) merely itself would not be sufficient for foreign investors & non-resident Indians to avail tax
  treaty benefits.
  Further tax authorities have been provided with additional powers to decide on tax issues at their
  discretion.
  This change has impact on all non-resident investors and FIIs using these routes for channeling
  investments into India and seeking to claim tax treaty benefits.
  Moreover the change is proposed with retrospective effect from FY12-13 which will bring any investor,
  availing treaty benefits under scrutiny.
  “More conditions would need to be fulfilled” and ambiguity on these additional conditions has spooked
  foreign investors
  We expect markets to sell off and FII buying to be restrained until further clarifications are not provided to
  investors




          Impermissible tax avoidance arrangements will be subjected to tax after a determination
          is made through a well laid out procedure involving an assessing officer….
                                                     14                                      Thursday, 28th Feb, 2013
Expenditure




Government expenditure boosts aggregate demand and it has both good and bad
consequences.
                                15                           Thursday, 28th Feb, 2013
Non Plan Expenditure                       Subsidies to be a lesser worry going forward
(Rs. in Crore)                              2011-12   2012-13BE       2012-13RE   2013-14BE Chg BE FY14/FY13
Non-Discretionary Expenditure
Interest Payments and Debt Servicing       273149.9        319759.0    316674.0    370684.0         16%
Defence                                    170913.3        193407.3    178503.5    203672.1          5%
Pension                                    61166.05        63183.41    63836.41    70726.00         12%
Police                                     33106.46        35611.28    37130.97    40895.49         15%
Subsidies                                  217941.1        190015.1    257654.4    231083.5         22%
Discretionary Expenditure
Assistance to States from NCCF/NDRF          2458.9          4620.0      4375.0      4800.0          4%
General Elections                              79.1            91.5        72.5       230.2         152%
Payment against Debt Waiver and Debt
Relief Scheme for Farmers                    1176.4             0.0         0.0         0.0        -100%
Postal Deficit                               5716.3          5727.1      5838.1      6717.1         17%
Reimbursement of losses to Railways           652.0           600.0       637.0       660.0         10%
Subsidy to Railways towards dividend
reliefs and concessions                      2034.4          3003.9      2384.2      2746.0         -9%
General Services                            19145.6         21291.4     21022.5     22673.0          6%
Social Services                             19444.2         20784.1     21303.7     23114.0         11%
Economic Services                           19043.3         20479.2     18643.6     20905.2          2%
Other Non-Plan Exp                          69598.1         95946.5     77937.2    115868.4         21%
Amt met from Famers Debt relief fund and
NCCF/NDRF                                   -3635.3         -4620.0     -4375.0     -4800.0          4%
Total                                      891989.8        969899.9   1001638.0   1109975.0         14%

          Faced with a huge fiscal deficit, I had no choice but to rationalise expenditure.


                                                      16                                      Thursday, 28th Feb, 2013
Non Plan Expenditure
                                            Defense expenditure kept at last year’s level
       (contd)

              Rs. in Crore
    1200000

    1000000

     800000

     600000

     400000

     200000

          0
                    2010-11             2011-12            2012-13BE       2012-13RE              2013-14BE
                      RE - Int Payment & Debt Servicing                RE- Defence
                      RE- Subsidies                                    RE Others
                      CE- Loan and Advances to State, UT               CE- Defence
                      CE- Others                                       Capital Expenditure (CE)
                      Revenue Expenditure (RE)




       ...I assure him (Defense Minister) and the house that constraints will not come in the
       way of providing any additional requirement for the security of the nation
                                                           17                                        Thursday, 28th Feb, 2013
Interest Payments                       Creeping up beyond 3% of GDP; worrisome


            Rs. in Crore
  400,000                                                                                                    3.3%

                                                                                                             3.3%
  350,000
                                                                                                             3.2%
  300,000
                                                                                                             3.2%
  250,000                                                                                                    3.1%

  200,000                                                                                                    3.1%

                                                                                                             3.0%
  150,000
                                                                                                             3.0%
  100,000
                                                                                                             2.9%

   50,000                                                                                                    2.9%
               2010-11            2011-12              2012-13BE         2012-13RE          2013-14BE



               Int. Payment and Debt Servicing (LHS)               Interest Payment as a %of GDP (RHS)




      In the budget for 2012-13, the estimate of Plan Expenditure was too ambitious and
      the estimate of non-Plan Expenditure was too conservative.
                                                       18                                         Thursday, 28th Feb, 2013
Plan Expenditure                      Positively growth oriented


            Rs. in Crore
   600000


   500000


   400000


   300000


   200000


   100000


        0
                  2010-11          2011-12          2012-13BE           2012-13RE           2013-14BE


                RE- State Plan               RE- Central Plan                       CE- State Plan
                CE- Central Plan             Capital Expenditure (CE)               Revenue Expenditure (RE)




    As a proportion of total expenditure, it (Plan Expenditure) will be 33.3 percent


                                               19                                              Thursday, 28th Feb, 2013
Savings, Investments
                                        Conducive to put India on 7% growth path
 & Capital Markets
 Without savings and investments it would be difficult to kick start growth. Recognizing this urgent need
 the FM has undertaken several initiatives
 The time limit on the RGESS (Rajiv Gandhi Equity Savings Scheme) has been increased to three years from
 one year and the income limit has been expanded to Rs 12, lacs from Rs 10 lacs. Further investment in
 mutual funds along with equity shares is also allowed to improve the attractiveness of the scheme.
 Inflation indexed bonds and certificates are expected to be introduced after consultation with The RBI
 Additional deduction of Rs 1 lac on interest is allowed over and above the existing Rs 1.5 lacs where the
 loan amount does not exceed Rs 25 lacs. Further if the amount of loan is not exhausted in year 1, the limit
 can be extended to the next year also.
 In order to widen the insurance sector reach Insurance companies are permitted to open offices in Tier II
 cities and lower without prior permission of the RBI. Further Banks are also permitted to operate as
 insurance brokers
 For capital markets,
   –    SEBI has been directed to simplify procedures for FIIs.
   – Ambiguity between FII and FDI is to be resolved by classifying any stake in a company more than
        10% as FDI
   – FIIs allowed to hedge their Re exposure in the currency segment of the Indian derivative markets.
   – Permitting FIIs to use their bond investments as collateral for margin requirements
   – Angel investor funds to be recognised as Category I AIF venture capital funds



        Increasing savings and their optimal allocation for productive uses lead to higher
        economic growth
                                                   20                                    Thursday, 28th Feb, 2013
Savings, Investments &
                                         Reduction in STT to benefit traders
Capital Markets (contd)
   –   SME’s along with startups to be permitted to list on the SME exchange without making an IPO.
       However with certain restrictions
   –   Stock Exchanges allowed to introduce a dedicated debt segment
   –   Mutual Funds distributors allowed to participate in the Mutual Fund segment of stock exchanges
   –   Asset backed securities, ETFS and debt mutual funds to be included in the eligible list of securities in
       which Pension & Provident Funds can invest.
   –   STT on equity futures and ETF and MF products reduced to improve attractiveness.




         With the object of developing the debt market, stock exchanges will be allowed to
         introduce a dedicated debt segment on the exchange
                                                     21                                     Thursday, 28th Feb, 2013
Budget Summary                                 Nominal GDP to grow at 12%
                                                                                                     Chg FY13     Chg BE
 (Rs. in Crore)                      2010-11      2011-12        2012-13BE   2012-13RE   2013-14BE
                                                                                                        BE/RE   FY14/FY13

 Revenue Receipts                    788,472      751,436          935,684     871,828   1,056,331        -7%         13%
 Net Tax Revenue                     569,869      629,764          771,070     742,115     884,078       -4%         15%
 Non tax Revenue                     218,603      121,671          164,614     129,713     172,253      -21%          5%
 Capital Receipts                    402,428      568,918          555,240     564,148     608,967         2%         10%
 Recoveries of receipts               12,420       18,850           11,650      14,073      10,654       21%         -9%
 Other Reciepts (Disinvestments)      22,846       18,088           30,000      24,000      55,814      -20%         86%
 Debt Reciepts                       367,162      531,980          513,590     526,075     542,499        2%          6%
 Total Receipts                    1,190,900    1,320,354        1,490,924   1,435,976   1,665,298        -4%         12%

 Non Plan Expenditure               818,299      891,991          969,900    1,001,638   1,109,976         3%         14%
 Non Plan Revenue                   726,491      812,049          865,596      919,699     992,909        6%         15%
 Interest Payments                  234,022      273,150          319,759      316,674     370,684       -1%         16%
 Non Plan Capital                    91,808       79,941          104,304       81,939     117,067      -21%         12%

 Plan Expenditure                    379,029      412,375          521,025     429,187     555,322       -18%          7%
 Plan Revenue                        314,232      333,737          420,513     343,373     443,260      -18%          5%
 Plan Capital                         64,797       78,638          100,512      85,814     112,062      -15%         11%
 Total Expenditure                 1,197,328    1,304,366        1,490,925   1,430,825   1,665,298        10%         12%

 GDP Nominal                       7,795,313    8,974,947 10,159,884         10,028,118 11,371,886        -1%         12%
 Gross Fiscal Deficit                373,590      515,992    513,591            520,925    542,499         1%           6%
 Fiscal deficit as a % of GDP           4.8%         5.7%       5.1%               5.2%       4.8%         3%          -6%
 Revenue Deficit                     252,251      394,351    350,425            391,244    379,838       12%            8%
 Revenue deficit as a % of GDP          3.2%         4.4%       3.4%               3.9%       3.3%       13%           -3%
 Primary Deficit                     139,568      242,842    193,832            204,251    171,815         5%        -11%
 Primary deficit as a % of GDP          1.8%         2.7%       1.9%               2.0%       1.5%         7%        -21%


         We are the 10th largest economy in the world. We can become the 8th or perhaps the
         7th, largest by 2017
                                                            22                                            Thursday, 28th Feb, 2013
Sector Summary                    Favouring infrastructure sector

           Sector           Budget Impact                       Key Highlights

Auto & Auto Ancillaries         Neutral              Excise duty on non-taxi SUV’s hiked

Aviation                        Neutral        Concessions announced only for MRO industry
                                                 Additional interest deduction beneficial for
Banking / Financial           Marginally
                                               HFC’s; Interest subvention scheme extended to
Services                       Positive
                                                            private sector banks
                                                Investment allowance of 15% on investment of
Capital Goods                  Positive       Rs 100 crore or more during 1/4/2013 to 31/3/2015
                                               in plant and machinery and Infrastructure push
                                               No hike in excise duty; Infrastructure push in the
Cement                         Positive         areas of road, irrigation and low cost housing

FMCG / Consumer                                Increase in the specific excise duty on cigarettes
                               Negative
Durables                                                (not exceeding 65 mm) by 18%



            While every sector can absorb new investment, it is the infrastructure sector that
            needs large volumes of investment
                                               23                                Thursday, 28th Feb, 2013
Sector Summary
                                      Healthcare and education clear cut beneficiaries
        (contd)
        Sector               Budget Impact                       Key Highlights
                                                   Rs 37,330 crore allocated to the Ministry of
Healthcare / Pharma             Neutral
                                                            Health & Family Welfare
                                               Clearance of stalled road projects; setting up of
Infrastructure                  Positive
                                                    regulatory authority for road sectors
                                              0% customs duty on plant & machinery for semi
IT / BPO’s                      Neutral
                                              conductor industry

Media                          Negative             Duty on STB increased from 5% to 10%

                                              A PPP policy framework with Coal India Ltd as in
Metals & Mining                 Neutral
                                                  order to increase the production of coal
                                              NELP blocks that were awarded but are stalled to
Oil & Gas                       Positive
                                                               be be cleared
                                                   80 IA benefit for power plants extended by
Power                           Positive
                                                                   another year


             The 12th Plan projects an investment of USD 1 trillion or Rs 55,00,000 crore in
             infrastructure
                                              24                                  Thursday, 28th Feb, 2013
Sectoral Measures and Impact




The key to restart the growth engine is to attract more investment, both from
domestic investors and foreign investors
                                 25                           Thursday, 28th Feb, 2013
Auto & Auto Ancillaries                 Increase in duties accentuating slowdown


    Budget Expectations                      Budget Declaration                  Impact
                              Excise duty raised to 30% from 27% for non-taxi
           N.A                                                                  Negative
                              SUV’s
                              Duty on luxury motor vehicles hiked from 75% to
           N.A
                              100%; on motorcycles (engine capacity > 800 cc)   Negative
                              to 75% from 60%
           N.A                Higher allocation of Rs 2,03,672.1 crore to
                                                                                Positive
                              defence (+14.1% over FY13 RE)
           N.A                More than doubled the allocation to Rs 14,873
                                                                                Positive
                              crore for JNNURM (v/s Rs 7383 RE)
                              Exemption on specified parts of electric and
           N.A.                                                                 Positive
                              hybrid vehicles


Impact       Companies
Gainers      Ashok Leyland, KPIT, Bharat Forge
Losers       Tata Motors, Mahindra & Mahindra, MarutiSuzuki India Ltd


           SUVs occupy greater road and parking space and ought to bear a higher tax


                                                    26                          Thursday, 28th Feb, 2013
Aviation                        MRO industry given a boost


    Budget Expectations                      Budget Declaration                     Impact
                               Time period for consumption/installation of parts
Tax       incentives      to
                               and testing equipments imported for MRO of
Maintenance,     Repair    &                                                       Positive
                               aircrafts by units engaged in such activities
overhaul (MRO) service
                               extended from 3 months to 1 year
                               Basic customs duty exemption extended to parts
            N.A                and testing equipments for MRO of aircrafts’        Positive
                               parts




Impact       Companies
Gainers      GMR Infra
Losers


           Encouraging the MRO sector will generate employment besides other benefits


                                                     27                            Thursday, 28th Feb, 2013
Banking / Financial
                                              HFC’s to benefit from interest deductions
       Services

    Budget Expectations                           Budget Declaration                             Impact
Allocation of equity capital for
                                   In order to comply with Basel III norms, allocated
infusion in PSU banks –                                                                     Positive for PSUs
                                   Rs14,000cr for capital infusion (Rs 12,517cr RE)
Rs15000cr- Rs20000cr
Commercial banks to be
allowed to issue tax-free                                N.A.                                   Negative
infrastructure bonds
                                   Farm loan interest subvention scheme @4%
              N.A                                                                               Negative
                                   continued and extended to private sector banks
                                   To set up India’s first Women’s bank via public
              N.A                                                                                Positive
                                   sector; provided for Rs 1000cr as initial capital
Infrastructure   status      to
                                                         N.A.                                    Neutral
affordable housing
                                                                                         Positive for AMC’s (L&T
             N.A.                  RGESS investee’s can invest in MF’s                  Finance, Bajaj Finserv and
                                                                                             Bajaj Holdings)




             I propose to set up India’s first Women’s Bank as a public sector bank and I shall
             provide Rs 1,000 crore as initial capital.
                                                         28                                     Thursday, 28th Feb, 2013
Banking / Financial                    Interest subvention scheme extended to
   Services (cntd)                       private banks

    Budget Expectations                       Budget Declaration                            Impact
                              Reduced STT in -
                              a. Equity futures – 0.017% to 0.01%
                              b. MF/ETF redemptions at fund counters – 0.25%      Positive for IIFL, MOSL and
           N.A.
                              to 0.001%                                                     Religare
                              c. MF/ETF purchase/sale on exchange – 0.1% to
                              0.001%
                              Introduction of CTT at 0.01% on non-agricultural
           N.A.               commodities (gold, silver, base metals) futures         Negative for MCX
                              contracts; to be allowed as deduction
                                                                                  Positive for HFC’s like LIC
                              Additional deduction of interest upto Rs 1,00,000    Housing Finance, HDFC,
                              on loan upto Rs 25 lacs for first home              Dewan Housing and Gruh
                                                                                            Finance

Impact       Companies
Gainers      HFC’s, IIFL, MOSL and Religare
Losers       Private sector banks, MCX, FT


           I propose to provide a further amount of Rs14,000 crore for capital infusion.


                                                    29                                     Thursday, 28th Feb, 2013
Capital Goods                    Indirect beneficiary


    Budget Expectations                      Budget Declaration                     Impact
                               Basic customs duty reduced from 7.5% to 5% on
                               20 specified machinery for use in leather and       Positive
                               footwear industry
Budgetary provision towards    State Governments to prepare the financial
restructuring of state power   restructuring plans. No specifications about any     Neutral
distribution companies         allocation
                               Rs 1,400 cr provided for setting up of water
                                                                                   Positive
                               purification plants
Accelerated depreciation on
                               Investment allowance of 15% on investment of
plant & machinery from
                               Rs 100 crore or more during 1/4/2013 to 31/3/2015   Positive
current 15%-20% to 25%-30%
                               in plant and machinery (additional)
for the next 3-5 years


Impact       Companies
Gainers      Sadbhav Engineering, Jindal Saw, BHEL, Praj Industries, Thermax
Losers


            To attract new investment and to quicken the implementation of projects, I propose
            to introduce an investment allowance for new high value investments.
                                                     30                            Thursday, 28th Feb, 2013
Cement                            Boost from infra & housing push


     Budget Expectations                          Budget Declaration                   Impact
Increase in excise duty on
cement by changing the                                   N.A.                         Positive
existing slab
Announcements        of     infra
                                    A boost to infrastructure in the areas of road,
projects related to highways,                                                         Positive
                                    irrigation and low cost housing
freight corridor and irrigation
Government could review
import duty on coal, pet coke       Duties on Steam Coal and Bituminous Coal
and gypsum, which are used          equalised with 2% custom duty and 2% CVD           Neutral
in the cement manufacturing         levied on both
process



Impact          Companies
Gainers         All
Losers


             Bottlenecks stalling road projects have been addressed and 3,000 kms of road
             projects in Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh….
                                                         31                           Thursday, 28th Feb, 2013
FMCG / Consumer
                                              Cigarette manufacturers impacted sharply
       Durables

    Budget Expectations                           Budget Declaration                     Impact
Direct tax relief for the middle   Relief of Rs 2,000 for tax payers with total
                                                                                         Neutral
class                              income upto Rs 5 lacs
10%-12% increase in excise         Increase in the specific excise duty on cigarettes
                                                                                        Negative
duty on cigarettes                 (not exceeding 65 mm) by 18 percent
                                   Increase in the rate of tax on payments by way of
             N.A.                  royalty and fees for technical services to non-      Negative
                                   residents (foreign company) from 10% to 25%
NREGA had an allocation of
                                   Allocation at Rs 33,000 cr                            Neutral
Rs 33,000 cr in 2012-13




Impact         Companies
Gainers
Losers         ITC, Godfrey Phillip, VST Industries


             What does a Finance Minister turn to when he requires resources? The answer is
             cigarettes
                                                          32                            Thursday, 28th Feb, 2013
Healthcare / Pharma                    Healthy dose of allocations


    Budget Expectations                      Budget Declaration                   Impact
Increase in MAT rate from
                                                    N.A.                         Positive
18% to 20%
Weighted     deduction    on
Inhouse Research to increase                        N.A.                         Negative
from 200% to 225%
                               Rs 37,330 crore allocated to the Ministry of
Increase in allocation to
                               Health & Family Welfare out of which New
NRHM (National Rural health                                                      Positive
                               National Health Mission to get an allocation of
Mission)
                               Rs 21,239 crore (+24.3% from FY13 RE)




Impact       Companies
Gainers
Losers


           Health for all and education for all remain our priorities


                                                    33                           Thursday, 28th Feb, 2013
Infrastructure                   Major beneficiary of the budget


   Budget Expectations                     Budget Declaration                     Impact
                            With 4 Infrastructure Debt Funds (IDF) registered
Creation     of long term
                            and 2 launched, they are to be encouraged to
dedicated debt funds for                                                         Negative
                            provide     long-term    low-cost    debt      for
infrastructure
                            infrastructure projects
                            3,000 kms of road projects in Gujarat, Madhya
                            Pradesh, Maharashtra, Rajasthan and Uttar
          N.A.                                                                   Positive
                            Pradesh to be awarded in the first six months
                            of 2013-14
          N.A.              To set up regulatory authority for road sector       Positive
                            Investment allowance of 15% on investment of
                            Rs 100 crore or more during 1/4/2013 to 31/3/2015    Positive
                            in plant and machinery (additional)




          ‘Doing business in India’ must be seen as easy, friendly and mutually beneficial


                                                  34                             Thursday, 28th Feb, 2013
Infrastructure


    Budget Expectations                        Budget Declaration                 Impact
                                Generation-based incentive for wind energy
            N.A.                                                                 Positive
                                projects with allocation of Rs 800 cr
            N.A.                Upto Rs 50000 cr Tax Free Infra Bonds issuance   Positive




Impact        Companies
Gainers       IRB Infra, L&T, Suzlon, Adani Ports
Losers


            Five inland waterways have been declared as national waterways


                                                     35                          Thursday, 28th Feb, 2013
IT / BPO’s                    Greater focus to education through IT


    Budget Expectations                     Budget Declaration                   Impact
                              0% customs duty on plant & machinery for semi
           N.A.                                                                 Positive
                              conductor industry
Removal of MAT on SEZ units                        N.A.                         Negative
Increased allocation under
schemes such as RAPDRP,       Allocated Rs 65,867 cr to the MHRD (+17% of RE)
                                                                                Positive
UIDAI    and    N-eGP   e-    Allocated Rs 27,258 cr for Sarva Siksha Abhyaan
governance




Impact       Companies
Gainers      CMC, Redington, HCL Info, Educomp, Everonn
Losers


           Investment in the Rashtriya Madhyamik Shiksha Abhiyan (RMSA) cannot be
           postponed any longer.
                                                   36                           Thursday, 28th Feb, 2013
Radio broadcasters to benefit from
              Media
                                           impending auction

       Budget Expectations                    Budget Declaration              Impact
Custom duty on set-top box
(STB) likely to be reduced      Duty on STB increased from 5% to 10%         Negative
from existing 5%
                                About 839 new FM radio channels to be
N.A.                                                                          Positive
                                auctioned in 2013-14




Impact          Companies
Gainers         ENIL
Losers          Den Networks, Hathway Cable, Dish TV


              To encourage domestic production of set top boxes as well as value addition, I
              propose to increase the duty from 5 percent to 10 percent.
                                                       37                    Thursday, 28th Feb, 2013
Metals & Mining                         No surprise for the steel sector


    Budget Expectations                        Budget Declaration                    Impact
Likely increase in import duty
                                                       N.A.                         Negative
on steel
                                 Levy of 4% excise duty on silver manufactured
            N.A.                                                                    Negative
                                 from smelting zinc or lead
                                 A PPP policy framework with Coal India Ltd as in
                                 order to increase the production of coal




Impact        Companies
Gainers       CIL
Losers        Steel sector, Hindustan Zinc


             In the medium to long term, we must reduce our dependence on imported coal

                                                       38                           Thursday, 28th Feb, 2013
Oil & Gas                      Impending NELP clearances a big positive


    Budget Expectations                     Budget Declaration                     Impact
                              The oil and gas policy regime is set to move from
           N.A.               profit sharing to revenue sharing (or production-   Positive
                              linked) contracts
                              Exploration and production of shale gas to be
                                                                                  Positive
                              announced
                              Natural gas pricing policy to be reviewed and
                                                                                  Positive
                              uncertainties regarding pricing to be removed
                              NELP blocks that were awarded but are stalled to
                                                                                  Positive
                              be cleared
Exemption of 5% import duty
                                                    N.A.                          Negative
on LNG


Impact       Companies
Gainers      ONGC, RIL, IOC, BPCL
Losers


           The 5 MMTPA LNG terminal in Dabhol, Maharashtra will be fully operational in 2013-
           14
                                                    39                            Thursday, 28th Feb, 2013
Power / Utilities                 Hints at power sector revamp


    Budget Expectations                   Budget Declaration                        Impact
Extensions of sunset clause
                              80 IA benefit for power plants extended by
for power generating co’s                                                           Positive
                              another year
beyond 2013
                              Duties on Steam Coal and Bituminous Coal
Relief from import duty on
                              equalised with 2% custom duty and 2% CVD              Neutral
Thermal coal
                              levied on both
                              Generation-based incentive for wind energy
           N.A.                                                                     Positive
                              projects with allocation of Rs 800 cr




Impact       Companies
Gainers      NTPC, Power Grid Corp, NHPC, Suzlon
Losers


           I would urge State Governments to prepare the financial restructuring plans quickly, sign
           the MOU, and take advantage of the scheme
                                                   40                              Thursday, 28th Feb, 2013
Miscellaneous                    Govt. looks to revive textile sector


Budget Expectations                  Budget Declaration                             Impact
                                                                           Positive for GE Shipping,
       N.A.            Excise duty exempted on ships & vessels             Gujarat Pipavav, Pipavav
                                                                                    Defence
                       Zero excise duty route restored on readymade
       N.A.                                                                Positive for textile sector
                       garments; TUFS to be allocated Rs 2,400 crore
                       Excise duty on marble slabs increased from Rs        Negative for real estate
       N.A.
                       30 per sq mtr to Rs 60 per sq mtr                            sector
                       Additional deduction of interest upto Rs 1,00,000    Positive for real estate
       N.A.
                       on loan upto Rs 25 lacs for first home                       sector




       The major focus would be on modernisation of the powerloom sector. I propose to
       provide Rs 2,400 crore in 2013-14 for the purpose.
                                             41                                    Thursday, 28th Feb, 2013
Ventura Securities Limited
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This report is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views expressed herein are believed to be
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                 All the strength and succour you want is within yourself. Therefore, make your own future.


                                                                            42                                                    Thursday, 28th Feb, 2013

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India budget-2013-14

  • 1. Infrastructure Thrust Fiscal Deficit under Uncertainty over GAAR control GST roadmap in question Service tax reforms CAD a serious concern Check on expenditure Hostage to foreign inflows Balancing fiscal consolidation with growth Thursday, 28th Feb, 2013
  • 2. Budget in brief Balancing fiscal consolidation with growth The Union Budget 2013-14 promises to return the economy back to a high growth trajectory while at the same time keeping a strict check on fiscal profligacy that the country can ill afford. The fact that the FM was able to contain fiscal deficit to 5.2% of GDP in the current year is a remarkable achievement given the overall slow down and the runaway subsidy bill. Going into the new fiscal FY13-14 the fiscal deficit has been pegged at 4.8% of GDP and this in our opinion is not an unachievable task. P Chidambaram as Finance Minister exudes confidence and he has an admirable track record of delivering on his promises. The Finance Minister has done a great balancing act in a rather difficult year. He has promoted manufacturing industry by proposing an Investment Allowance. Further to prevent revenue leakages and augment revenue resources he has come out with a number of innovative measures which while being ingenious evoke confidence. He has sought to promote investment in infrastructure by issue of tax free bonds, freeing up NELP blocks, referring stalled infra projects to the CCI and increasing tax holiday period for power sector. In addition several measures to boost investments, savings and capital markets should yield handsome dividends as the year rolls by. However the resurfacing of the GAAR issue can be a big negative for the markets. Especially given the fact that the FM has gone on record to state that the CAD (Current Account Deficit) can only be bridged through foreign flows constituting of FDI, FII and ECBs. With the TRC (Tax Residency Certificate) declared insufficient, uncertainty over the implementation of the law could lead to foreign investors turning cautious and the momentum of the flow of funds could slow down. I have been at pains to state over and over again that India, at the present juncture, does not have the choice between welcoming and spurning foreign investment. 2 Thursday, 28th Feb, 2013
  • 3. Real GDP growth rate Seems to have bottomed out 9.0% 8.5% 8.4% 8.5% 8.0% 7.5% 7.0% 6.7% 6.5% 6.2% 6.20% 6.0% 5.5% 5.2% 5.0% 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13E 2013-14E Whatever may be the final estimate (of the GDP), it will be below India’s potential growth rate of 8% 3 Thursday, 28th Feb, 2013
  • 4. Fiscal Deficit Reigned in to manageable levels As % of GDP 7.0% 6.0% 5.7% 5.1% 5.2% 5.0% 4.8% 4.8% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13BE 2012-13RE 2013-14BE Fiscal consolidation cannot be effected only by cutting expenditure. Wherever possible, revenues must also be augmented 4 Thursday, 28th Feb, 2013
  • 5. Subsidies Should be of lesser concern going forward Rs. in Crore 300000 3.0% 250000 2.5% 200000 2.0% 150000 1.5% 100000 1.0% 50000 0.5% 0 0.0% 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13BE 2012-13RE 2013-14BE Food Fertilizers Petroleum Interest and Others Subsidies as a %of GDP (RHS) We must redeem our promise by 2016-17 and bring down the fiscal deficit to 3%, the revenue deficit to 1.5% and effective revenue deficit to 0% 5 Thursday, 28th Feb, 2013
  • 6. Market Borrowings Not extraordinarily worrying Rs. in Crore 550,000 500,000 450,000 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13BE 2012-13RE 2013-14BE (Apart from borrowing) There are only three ways before us: FDI, FII or External Commercial Borrowing (ECB). 6 Thursday, 28th Feb, 2013
  • 7. Budgetary Measures Initiatives to kick start growth; control spending In his budgetary speech, the Finance Minister has outlined several initiatives to kick start growth, boost revenues and target spending. Rs. in Crore 1400000 1200000 1000000 800000 600000 400000 200000 0 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13BE 2012-13RE 2013-14BE Corporation tax Income tax Wealth Tax Customs Union Excise Duties Service Tax Taxes of the Union Direct Indirect The economic space that we have gained has given me the confidence to be more ambitious in 2013-14. 7 Thursday, 28th Feb, 2013
  • 8. Revenue measures Pragmatic and achievable In a bid to curtail revenue losses he has introduced several measures like the 1% TDS on immovable property, withholding tax on royalty payments, voluntary disclosure scheme for Service Tax evaders since 2007 and final witholding tax on share buybacks by unlisted companies Further there has been no revision of the income slabs and the rates which is pragmatic given the pressures on revenue. Further a tax on the super rich introduced has gone down well with the markets. A 15% Investment allowance on plant and machinery over Rs 100 crores should definitely provide a fillip to asset creation and spur investment in the manufacturing sector. This is over and above the depreciation rates prevailing. Surcharge introduced on companies earning a taxable income of Rs 10 crore or more should also help swell the kitty. Pruning of the negative list to only two sectors should help increase the gamut of services liable to service tax But the biggest clincher is the Voluntary Compliance Encouragement Scheme on Service tax which proposes to tax the 10,00,000 non service tax payers out of the 17,00,000 lacs registered assessees. This itself should lead to a healthy collection; although the estimated amount has not been quantified. Further reduction in STT and introduction of CTT (Commodities transaction Tax) should help lower cost of transactions for traders in the equity markets. Non Tax revenue estimates (in the form of divestment, sale of other market securities and enhanced dividends from PSEs) are also pragmatic and achievable Wherever possible, revenues must also be augmented 8 Thursday, 28th Feb, 2013
  • 9. Indirect Taxes Contributing to growth Status quo on the normal rate of excise duty (12%), service tax rates (12%) and peak customs duty (for non agricultura imports) maintained. Relief is from the fact that customs duty on crude oil imports was not hiked (as feared earlier). Customs duty proposals – on leather & leather goods lowered to 5% from 7.5% while concessionary period on environmental friendly vehicles extended to FY2015. – On pre forms of precious and semi precious stones duty lowered to 2% from 10% – Export duty on de-oiled rice bran oil cake withdrawn – 10% Duty imposed on export of raw ilmenite & 5% on upgraded ilmenite – Significant concessions provided to the aircraft MRO (maintenance, repair and overhaul) industry – Raw silk duty increased from 5% to 15% – Duty on steam coal and bituminous coal equalized to 2% and CVD of 2% – Duty free limit on gold jewellery raised to Rs 50,000 for males and Rs 1,00,000 for female passengers. – Duty on imported high end vehicles raised to 100% (75%), +800 cc motorcycles to 75% (60%) and yatchs 25% (10%) Excise duty proposals – Hand made carpets and textile floor coverings of coir / jute and ships and vessels totally exempted. Consequently no CVD on imported ships There will also be no change in the normal rate of excise duty of 12% and normal rate of service tax of 12% 9 Thursday, 28th Feb, 2013
  • 10. Indirect Taxes (contd) VDIS on service tax to provide a windfall – Excise duty on Cigarettes and cigars to be increased by 18% – Excise on SUVs increased to 30% (27%). Not applicable to taxis – Duty on marble increased from Rs 30 / sq mt to Rs 60 / sq mt – Silver manufactured from smelting zinc / lead taxed at 4% – Duty on mobile phones above Rs 2000 raised to 6% (1%) – Branded alternate medicines to be taxed on MRP. Abatement of 35% to exist Service Tax further stream lined to have only two sectors on the negative list – Vocational Training to institutes affiliated to the State Council of Vocational training – testing activities in relation to agricultural produce – VDIS scheme for service tax to provide a windfall to the exchequer; although not quantified in the budget document I hope to entice a large number of assesses to return to the tax fold. I also hope to collect a reasonable sum of money 10 Thursday, 28th Feb, 2013
  • 11. Direct Taxes Additional tax on the super rich Status quo maintained on income slabs and rates as per last year. However a Rs 2,000 tax credit is provided to every assessee with an income upto Rs 5,00,000 10% surcharge imposed on assessees with income of Rs 1 crore and above Surcharge raised to 10% (5%) on domestic companies with taxable income above Rs 10 crore. For foreign companies surcharge increased to 5% (2%) 1st home buyers who take a loan not exceeding Rs 25 lacs to be provided an additional deduction of interest of Rs 1 lac . This limit is over and above the current Rs 1.5 lacs. This is to be claimed in AY FY14- 15. If limit not exhausted, can be carried over to the next assessment year. For persons with disability or suffering from certain ailments permissible premium rates of insurance have been increased to 15% from 10% on the sum assured Donations to the National Children’s Fund eligible for 100% deduction. Investment allowance of 15% on investment in Plant & Machinery of over Rs 100 crore provided. Section 80-IA benefits to power sector eligible date extended to March 2014. Timeline on concession rate of tax of 15% on repatriation of dividends from a foreign subsidiary to a domestic parent company extend to FY2013. Further Dividend Distribution Tax set to 0% on that portion of the dividend distributed by the Indian parent. When I need to raise resources, who can I go to except those who are relatively well placed in society? 11 Thursday, 28th Feb, 2013
  • 12. Direct Taxes (contd) Revenue leakage loop holes plugged effectively Withholding tax on Interest paid on investments made through Rupee denominated long term infrastructure bonds to NRIs reduced to 5% from 20% Securitization Trusts to be exempt from Income Tax. Tax on income distributed by the Securitization trusts to be at the rate of 30% for companies and 25% for individuals / HUF. Investor Protection Fund set up by a depository exempt from Income Tax Pass through status provided to Category I Alternate Investment Funds (AIF) and Angel Investors recognized as Category I AIFs. This is on par with Venture Funds RGESS timeline extended 3 consecutive years and income limit augmented to Rs 12 lacs from Rs 10 lacs. MF also made an eligible investment. 1% TDS to be imposed on immovable property transactions above value of Rs 50 lacs. Agricultural land is however exempt To plug loop holes a withholding tax of 20% is top be imposed on unlisted companies who distribute profits through buy back of shares. Tax rates on payment of royalties and fees for technical services to non resident Indians hiked to 25% from 10%. However applicable rates to be as stipulated in the DTAA. With a view to improve the reporting of such (immovanle properties) transactions and the taxation of capital gains, I propose to apply TDS at the rate of 1% …. 12 Thursday, 28th Feb, 2013
  • 13. Direct Taxes (contd) Lowering of STT to benefit equity traders STT (Securities Transaction Tax) reductions are as follows – Equities 0.01% (0.017%) – MF / ETF redemptions at fund counters 0.001% (0.25%) – MF / ETF purchase / sale on exchanges 0.001% (0.01%) CTT (Commodities Transaction Tax) on non agricultural commodities of 0.01% to be introduced. However it will be allowed as a deduction. It is time to introduce Commodities Transaction Tax (CTT) in a limited way 13 Thursday, 28th Feb, 2013
  • 14. GAAR still unresolved FII and FDI flows likely to be affected The FM has again raked up the controversy of GAAR by suggesting that the TRC (Tax Residency Certificate) merely itself would not be sufficient for foreign investors & non-resident Indians to avail tax treaty benefits. Further tax authorities have been provided with additional powers to decide on tax issues at their discretion. This change has impact on all non-resident investors and FIIs using these routes for channeling investments into India and seeking to claim tax treaty benefits. Moreover the change is proposed with retrospective effect from FY12-13 which will bring any investor, availing treaty benefits under scrutiny. “More conditions would need to be fulfilled” and ambiguity on these additional conditions has spooked foreign investors We expect markets to sell off and FII buying to be restrained until further clarifications are not provided to investors Impermissible tax avoidance arrangements will be subjected to tax after a determination is made through a well laid out procedure involving an assessing officer…. 14 Thursday, 28th Feb, 2013
  • 15. Expenditure Government expenditure boosts aggregate demand and it has both good and bad consequences. 15 Thursday, 28th Feb, 2013
  • 16. Non Plan Expenditure Subsidies to be a lesser worry going forward (Rs. in Crore) 2011-12 2012-13BE 2012-13RE 2013-14BE Chg BE FY14/FY13 Non-Discretionary Expenditure Interest Payments and Debt Servicing 273149.9 319759.0 316674.0 370684.0 16% Defence 170913.3 193407.3 178503.5 203672.1 5% Pension 61166.05 63183.41 63836.41 70726.00 12% Police 33106.46 35611.28 37130.97 40895.49 15% Subsidies 217941.1 190015.1 257654.4 231083.5 22% Discretionary Expenditure Assistance to States from NCCF/NDRF 2458.9 4620.0 4375.0 4800.0 4% General Elections 79.1 91.5 72.5 230.2 152% Payment against Debt Waiver and Debt Relief Scheme for Farmers 1176.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 -100% Postal Deficit 5716.3 5727.1 5838.1 6717.1 17% Reimbursement of losses to Railways 652.0 600.0 637.0 660.0 10% Subsidy to Railways towards dividend reliefs and concessions 2034.4 3003.9 2384.2 2746.0 -9% General Services 19145.6 21291.4 21022.5 22673.0 6% Social Services 19444.2 20784.1 21303.7 23114.0 11% Economic Services 19043.3 20479.2 18643.6 20905.2 2% Other Non-Plan Exp 69598.1 95946.5 77937.2 115868.4 21% Amt met from Famers Debt relief fund and NCCF/NDRF -3635.3 -4620.0 -4375.0 -4800.0 4% Total 891989.8 969899.9 1001638.0 1109975.0 14% Faced with a huge fiscal deficit, I had no choice but to rationalise expenditure. 16 Thursday, 28th Feb, 2013
  • 17. Non Plan Expenditure Defense expenditure kept at last year’s level (contd) Rs. in Crore 1200000 1000000 800000 600000 400000 200000 0 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13BE 2012-13RE 2013-14BE RE - Int Payment & Debt Servicing RE- Defence RE- Subsidies RE Others CE- Loan and Advances to State, UT CE- Defence CE- Others Capital Expenditure (CE) Revenue Expenditure (RE) ...I assure him (Defense Minister) and the house that constraints will not come in the way of providing any additional requirement for the security of the nation 17 Thursday, 28th Feb, 2013
  • 18. Interest Payments Creeping up beyond 3% of GDP; worrisome Rs. in Crore 400,000 3.3% 3.3% 350,000 3.2% 300,000 3.2% 250,000 3.1% 200,000 3.1% 3.0% 150,000 3.0% 100,000 2.9% 50,000 2.9% 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13BE 2012-13RE 2013-14BE Int. Payment and Debt Servicing (LHS) Interest Payment as a %of GDP (RHS) In the budget for 2012-13, the estimate of Plan Expenditure was too ambitious and the estimate of non-Plan Expenditure was too conservative. 18 Thursday, 28th Feb, 2013
  • 19. Plan Expenditure Positively growth oriented Rs. in Crore 600000 500000 400000 300000 200000 100000 0 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13BE 2012-13RE 2013-14BE RE- State Plan RE- Central Plan CE- State Plan CE- Central Plan Capital Expenditure (CE) Revenue Expenditure (RE) As a proportion of total expenditure, it (Plan Expenditure) will be 33.3 percent 19 Thursday, 28th Feb, 2013
  • 20. Savings, Investments Conducive to put India on 7% growth path & Capital Markets Without savings and investments it would be difficult to kick start growth. Recognizing this urgent need the FM has undertaken several initiatives The time limit on the RGESS (Rajiv Gandhi Equity Savings Scheme) has been increased to three years from one year and the income limit has been expanded to Rs 12, lacs from Rs 10 lacs. Further investment in mutual funds along with equity shares is also allowed to improve the attractiveness of the scheme. Inflation indexed bonds and certificates are expected to be introduced after consultation with The RBI Additional deduction of Rs 1 lac on interest is allowed over and above the existing Rs 1.5 lacs where the loan amount does not exceed Rs 25 lacs. Further if the amount of loan is not exhausted in year 1, the limit can be extended to the next year also. In order to widen the insurance sector reach Insurance companies are permitted to open offices in Tier II cities and lower without prior permission of the RBI. Further Banks are also permitted to operate as insurance brokers For capital markets, – SEBI has been directed to simplify procedures for FIIs. – Ambiguity between FII and FDI is to be resolved by classifying any stake in a company more than 10% as FDI – FIIs allowed to hedge their Re exposure in the currency segment of the Indian derivative markets. – Permitting FIIs to use their bond investments as collateral for margin requirements – Angel investor funds to be recognised as Category I AIF venture capital funds Increasing savings and their optimal allocation for productive uses lead to higher economic growth 20 Thursday, 28th Feb, 2013
  • 21. Savings, Investments & Reduction in STT to benefit traders Capital Markets (contd) – SME’s along with startups to be permitted to list on the SME exchange without making an IPO. However with certain restrictions – Stock Exchanges allowed to introduce a dedicated debt segment – Mutual Funds distributors allowed to participate in the Mutual Fund segment of stock exchanges – Asset backed securities, ETFS and debt mutual funds to be included in the eligible list of securities in which Pension & Provident Funds can invest. – STT on equity futures and ETF and MF products reduced to improve attractiveness. With the object of developing the debt market, stock exchanges will be allowed to introduce a dedicated debt segment on the exchange 21 Thursday, 28th Feb, 2013
  • 22. Budget Summary Nominal GDP to grow at 12% Chg FY13 Chg BE (Rs. in Crore) 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13BE 2012-13RE 2013-14BE BE/RE FY14/FY13 Revenue Receipts 788,472 751,436 935,684 871,828 1,056,331 -7% 13% Net Tax Revenue 569,869 629,764 771,070 742,115 884,078 -4% 15% Non tax Revenue 218,603 121,671 164,614 129,713 172,253 -21% 5% Capital Receipts 402,428 568,918 555,240 564,148 608,967 2% 10% Recoveries of receipts 12,420 18,850 11,650 14,073 10,654 21% -9% Other Reciepts (Disinvestments) 22,846 18,088 30,000 24,000 55,814 -20% 86% Debt Reciepts 367,162 531,980 513,590 526,075 542,499 2% 6% Total Receipts 1,190,900 1,320,354 1,490,924 1,435,976 1,665,298 -4% 12% Non Plan Expenditure 818,299 891,991 969,900 1,001,638 1,109,976 3% 14% Non Plan Revenue 726,491 812,049 865,596 919,699 992,909 6% 15% Interest Payments 234,022 273,150 319,759 316,674 370,684 -1% 16% Non Plan Capital 91,808 79,941 104,304 81,939 117,067 -21% 12% Plan Expenditure 379,029 412,375 521,025 429,187 555,322 -18% 7% Plan Revenue 314,232 333,737 420,513 343,373 443,260 -18% 5% Plan Capital 64,797 78,638 100,512 85,814 112,062 -15% 11% Total Expenditure 1,197,328 1,304,366 1,490,925 1,430,825 1,665,298 10% 12% GDP Nominal 7,795,313 8,974,947 10,159,884 10,028,118 11,371,886 -1% 12% Gross Fiscal Deficit 373,590 515,992 513,591 520,925 542,499 1% 6% Fiscal deficit as a % of GDP 4.8% 5.7% 5.1% 5.2% 4.8% 3% -6% Revenue Deficit 252,251 394,351 350,425 391,244 379,838 12% 8% Revenue deficit as a % of GDP 3.2% 4.4% 3.4% 3.9% 3.3% 13% -3% Primary Deficit 139,568 242,842 193,832 204,251 171,815 5% -11% Primary deficit as a % of GDP 1.8% 2.7% 1.9% 2.0% 1.5% 7% -21% We are the 10th largest economy in the world. We can become the 8th or perhaps the 7th, largest by 2017 22 Thursday, 28th Feb, 2013
  • 23. Sector Summary Favouring infrastructure sector Sector Budget Impact Key Highlights Auto & Auto Ancillaries Neutral Excise duty on non-taxi SUV’s hiked Aviation Neutral Concessions announced only for MRO industry Additional interest deduction beneficial for Banking / Financial Marginally HFC’s; Interest subvention scheme extended to Services Positive private sector banks Investment allowance of 15% on investment of Capital Goods Positive Rs 100 crore or more during 1/4/2013 to 31/3/2015 in plant and machinery and Infrastructure push No hike in excise duty; Infrastructure push in the Cement Positive areas of road, irrigation and low cost housing FMCG / Consumer Increase in the specific excise duty on cigarettes Negative Durables (not exceeding 65 mm) by 18% While every sector can absorb new investment, it is the infrastructure sector that needs large volumes of investment 23 Thursday, 28th Feb, 2013
  • 24. Sector Summary Healthcare and education clear cut beneficiaries (contd) Sector Budget Impact Key Highlights Rs 37,330 crore allocated to the Ministry of Healthcare / Pharma Neutral Health & Family Welfare Clearance of stalled road projects; setting up of Infrastructure Positive regulatory authority for road sectors 0% customs duty on plant & machinery for semi IT / BPO’s Neutral conductor industry Media Negative Duty on STB increased from 5% to 10% A PPP policy framework with Coal India Ltd as in Metals & Mining Neutral order to increase the production of coal NELP blocks that were awarded but are stalled to Oil & Gas Positive be be cleared 80 IA benefit for power plants extended by Power Positive another year The 12th Plan projects an investment of USD 1 trillion or Rs 55,00,000 crore in infrastructure 24 Thursday, 28th Feb, 2013
  • 25. Sectoral Measures and Impact The key to restart the growth engine is to attract more investment, both from domestic investors and foreign investors 25 Thursday, 28th Feb, 2013
  • 26. Auto & Auto Ancillaries Increase in duties accentuating slowdown Budget Expectations Budget Declaration Impact Excise duty raised to 30% from 27% for non-taxi N.A Negative SUV’s Duty on luxury motor vehicles hiked from 75% to N.A 100%; on motorcycles (engine capacity > 800 cc) Negative to 75% from 60% N.A Higher allocation of Rs 2,03,672.1 crore to Positive defence (+14.1% over FY13 RE) N.A More than doubled the allocation to Rs 14,873 Positive crore for JNNURM (v/s Rs 7383 RE) Exemption on specified parts of electric and N.A. Positive hybrid vehicles Impact Companies Gainers Ashok Leyland, KPIT, Bharat Forge Losers Tata Motors, Mahindra & Mahindra, MarutiSuzuki India Ltd SUVs occupy greater road and parking space and ought to bear a higher tax 26 Thursday, 28th Feb, 2013
  • 27. Aviation MRO industry given a boost Budget Expectations Budget Declaration Impact Time period for consumption/installation of parts Tax incentives to and testing equipments imported for MRO of Maintenance, Repair & Positive aircrafts by units engaged in such activities overhaul (MRO) service extended from 3 months to 1 year Basic customs duty exemption extended to parts N.A and testing equipments for MRO of aircrafts’ Positive parts Impact Companies Gainers GMR Infra Losers Encouraging the MRO sector will generate employment besides other benefits 27 Thursday, 28th Feb, 2013
  • 28. Banking / Financial HFC’s to benefit from interest deductions Services Budget Expectations Budget Declaration Impact Allocation of equity capital for In order to comply with Basel III norms, allocated infusion in PSU banks – Positive for PSUs Rs14,000cr for capital infusion (Rs 12,517cr RE) Rs15000cr- Rs20000cr Commercial banks to be allowed to issue tax-free N.A. Negative infrastructure bonds Farm loan interest subvention scheme @4% N.A Negative continued and extended to private sector banks To set up India’s first Women’s bank via public N.A Positive sector; provided for Rs 1000cr as initial capital Infrastructure status to N.A. Neutral affordable housing Positive for AMC’s (L&T N.A. RGESS investee’s can invest in MF’s Finance, Bajaj Finserv and Bajaj Holdings) I propose to set up India’s first Women’s Bank as a public sector bank and I shall provide Rs 1,000 crore as initial capital. 28 Thursday, 28th Feb, 2013
  • 29. Banking / Financial Interest subvention scheme extended to Services (cntd) private banks Budget Expectations Budget Declaration Impact Reduced STT in - a. Equity futures – 0.017% to 0.01% b. MF/ETF redemptions at fund counters – 0.25% Positive for IIFL, MOSL and N.A. to 0.001% Religare c. MF/ETF purchase/sale on exchange – 0.1% to 0.001% Introduction of CTT at 0.01% on non-agricultural N.A. commodities (gold, silver, base metals) futures Negative for MCX contracts; to be allowed as deduction Positive for HFC’s like LIC Additional deduction of interest upto Rs 1,00,000 Housing Finance, HDFC, on loan upto Rs 25 lacs for first home Dewan Housing and Gruh Finance Impact Companies Gainers HFC’s, IIFL, MOSL and Religare Losers Private sector banks, MCX, FT I propose to provide a further amount of Rs14,000 crore for capital infusion. 29 Thursday, 28th Feb, 2013
  • 30. Capital Goods Indirect beneficiary Budget Expectations Budget Declaration Impact Basic customs duty reduced from 7.5% to 5% on 20 specified machinery for use in leather and Positive footwear industry Budgetary provision towards State Governments to prepare the financial restructuring of state power restructuring plans. No specifications about any Neutral distribution companies allocation Rs 1,400 cr provided for setting up of water Positive purification plants Accelerated depreciation on Investment allowance of 15% on investment of plant & machinery from Rs 100 crore or more during 1/4/2013 to 31/3/2015 Positive current 15%-20% to 25%-30% in plant and machinery (additional) for the next 3-5 years Impact Companies Gainers Sadbhav Engineering, Jindal Saw, BHEL, Praj Industries, Thermax Losers To attract new investment and to quicken the implementation of projects, I propose to introduce an investment allowance for new high value investments. 30 Thursday, 28th Feb, 2013
  • 31. Cement Boost from infra & housing push Budget Expectations Budget Declaration Impact Increase in excise duty on cement by changing the N.A. Positive existing slab Announcements of infra A boost to infrastructure in the areas of road, projects related to highways, Positive irrigation and low cost housing freight corridor and irrigation Government could review import duty on coal, pet coke Duties on Steam Coal and Bituminous Coal and gypsum, which are used equalised with 2% custom duty and 2% CVD Neutral in the cement manufacturing levied on both process Impact Companies Gainers All Losers Bottlenecks stalling road projects have been addressed and 3,000 kms of road projects in Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh…. 31 Thursday, 28th Feb, 2013
  • 32. FMCG / Consumer Cigarette manufacturers impacted sharply Durables Budget Expectations Budget Declaration Impact Direct tax relief for the middle Relief of Rs 2,000 for tax payers with total Neutral class income upto Rs 5 lacs 10%-12% increase in excise Increase in the specific excise duty on cigarettes Negative duty on cigarettes (not exceeding 65 mm) by 18 percent Increase in the rate of tax on payments by way of N.A. royalty and fees for technical services to non- Negative residents (foreign company) from 10% to 25% NREGA had an allocation of Allocation at Rs 33,000 cr Neutral Rs 33,000 cr in 2012-13 Impact Companies Gainers Losers ITC, Godfrey Phillip, VST Industries What does a Finance Minister turn to when he requires resources? The answer is cigarettes 32 Thursday, 28th Feb, 2013
  • 33. Healthcare / Pharma Healthy dose of allocations Budget Expectations Budget Declaration Impact Increase in MAT rate from N.A. Positive 18% to 20% Weighted deduction on Inhouse Research to increase N.A. Negative from 200% to 225% Rs 37,330 crore allocated to the Ministry of Increase in allocation to Health & Family Welfare out of which New NRHM (National Rural health Positive National Health Mission to get an allocation of Mission) Rs 21,239 crore (+24.3% from FY13 RE) Impact Companies Gainers Losers Health for all and education for all remain our priorities 33 Thursday, 28th Feb, 2013
  • 34. Infrastructure Major beneficiary of the budget Budget Expectations Budget Declaration Impact With 4 Infrastructure Debt Funds (IDF) registered Creation of long term and 2 launched, they are to be encouraged to dedicated debt funds for Negative provide long-term low-cost debt for infrastructure infrastructure projects 3,000 kms of road projects in Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Rajasthan and Uttar N.A. Positive Pradesh to be awarded in the first six months of 2013-14 N.A. To set up regulatory authority for road sector Positive Investment allowance of 15% on investment of Rs 100 crore or more during 1/4/2013 to 31/3/2015 Positive in plant and machinery (additional) ‘Doing business in India’ must be seen as easy, friendly and mutually beneficial 34 Thursday, 28th Feb, 2013
  • 35. Infrastructure Budget Expectations Budget Declaration Impact Generation-based incentive for wind energy N.A. Positive projects with allocation of Rs 800 cr N.A. Upto Rs 50000 cr Tax Free Infra Bonds issuance Positive Impact Companies Gainers IRB Infra, L&T, Suzlon, Adani Ports Losers Five inland waterways have been declared as national waterways 35 Thursday, 28th Feb, 2013
  • 36. IT / BPO’s Greater focus to education through IT Budget Expectations Budget Declaration Impact 0% customs duty on plant & machinery for semi N.A. Positive conductor industry Removal of MAT on SEZ units N.A. Negative Increased allocation under schemes such as RAPDRP, Allocated Rs 65,867 cr to the MHRD (+17% of RE) Positive UIDAI and N-eGP e- Allocated Rs 27,258 cr for Sarva Siksha Abhyaan governance Impact Companies Gainers CMC, Redington, HCL Info, Educomp, Everonn Losers Investment in the Rashtriya Madhyamik Shiksha Abhiyan (RMSA) cannot be postponed any longer. 36 Thursday, 28th Feb, 2013
  • 37. Radio broadcasters to benefit from Media impending auction Budget Expectations Budget Declaration Impact Custom duty on set-top box (STB) likely to be reduced Duty on STB increased from 5% to 10% Negative from existing 5% About 839 new FM radio channels to be N.A. Positive auctioned in 2013-14 Impact Companies Gainers ENIL Losers Den Networks, Hathway Cable, Dish TV To encourage domestic production of set top boxes as well as value addition, I propose to increase the duty from 5 percent to 10 percent. 37 Thursday, 28th Feb, 2013
  • 38. Metals & Mining No surprise for the steel sector Budget Expectations Budget Declaration Impact Likely increase in import duty N.A. Negative on steel Levy of 4% excise duty on silver manufactured N.A. Negative from smelting zinc or lead A PPP policy framework with Coal India Ltd as in order to increase the production of coal Impact Companies Gainers CIL Losers Steel sector, Hindustan Zinc In the medium to long term, we must reduce our dependence on imported coal 38 Thursday, 28th Feb, 2013
  • 39. Oil & Gas Impending NELP clearances a big positive Budget Expectations Budget Declaration Impact The oil and gas policy regime is set to move from N.A. profit sharing to revenue sharing (or production- Positive linked) contracts Exploration and production of shale gas to be Positive announced Natural gas pricing policy to be reviewed and Positive uncertainties regarding pricing to be removed NELP blocks that were awarded but are stalled to Positive be cleared Exemption of 5% import duty N.A. Negative on LNG Impact Companies Gainers ONGC, RIL, IOC, BPCL Losers The 5 MMTPA LNG terminal in Dabhol, Maharashtra will be fully operational in 2013- 14 39 Thursday, 28th Feb, 2013
  • 40. Power / Utilities Hints at power sector revamp Budget Expectations Budget Declaration Impact Extensions of sunset clause 80 IA benefit for power plants extended by for power generating co’s Positive another year beyond 2013 Duties on Steam Coal and Bituminous Coal Relief from import duty on equalised with 2% custom duty and 2% CVD Neutral Thermal coal levied on both Generation-based incentive for wind energy N.A. Positive projects with allocation of Rs 800 cr Impact Companies Gainers NTPC, Power Grid Corp, NHPC, Suzlon Losers I would urge State Governments to prepare the financial restructuring plans quickly, sign the MOU, and take advantage of the scheme 40 Thursday, 28th Feb, 2013
  • 41. Miscellaneous Govt. looks to revive textile sector Budget Expectations Budget Declaration Impact Positive for GE Shipping, N.A. Excise duty exempted on ships & vessels Gujarat Pipavav, Pipavav Defence Zero excise duty route restored on readymade N.A. Positive for textile sector garments; TUFS to be allocated Rs 2,400 crore Excise duty on marble slabs increased from Rs Negative for real estate N.A. 30 per sq mtr to Rs 60 per sq mtr sector Additional deduction of interest upto Rs 1,00,000 Positive for real estate N.A. on loan upto Rs 25 lacs for first home sector The major focus would be on modernisation of the powerloom sector. I propose to provide Rs 2,400 crore in 2013-14 for the purpose. 41 Thursday, 28th Feb, 2013
  • 42. Ventura Securities Limited Corporate Office: C-112/116, Bldg No. 1, Kailash Industrial Complex, Park Site, Vikhroli (W), Mumbai – 400079 This report is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views expressed herein are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither Ventura Securities Limited nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of the above information/articles. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited. This report is for private circulation. All the strength and succour you want is within yourself. Therefore, make your own future. 42 Thursday, 28th Feb, 2013