Casilli UKriots Ars Industrialis

Effet des usages des médias sociaux sur la structure de la violence civile Le cas des émeutes britanniques de 2011 Antonio A. Casilli (ParisTech)

[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],A. A. Casilli & P. Tubaro (2011) Social Media Censorship in Times of Political Unrest Results in More Violent Uprisings : A Social Simulation Experiment on the UK Riots, Sociological Research Online, vol. 16, n. 4 (en cours de publication)

[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source: J. Burn-Murdoch, P. Lewis, J.Ball, C.Oliver, M. Robinson and G. Blight (2011) Twitter traffic during the riots, The Guardian, 24 August 2011

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[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source: U. Wilensky. Netlogo rebellion model. Available in the online Netlogo Model Library, 2004. URL http://ccl.northwestern.edu/netlogo/models/Rebellion.

[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source: U. Wilensky. Netlogo rebellion model. Available in the online Netlogo Model Library, 2004. URL http://ccl.northwestern.edu/netlogo/models/Rebellion.

[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source: J.M. Epstein. Modeling civil violence: An agent-based computational approach. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 99 (3): 7243-7250, 2002.

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[object Object],Red patterns represent number of violent protesters over time with different levels of social media censorship: from 0 vision (total censorship, upper left corner) to 10 vision (no censorship, lower right corner). Trend lines are in black. Time is measured as number of steps (1 to 1000). Source: authors’ elaboration.

[object Object],Figure: Average levels of civil violence as function of levels of censorship. Higher vision means less censorship and less civil violence. Source: authors’ elaboration.

[object Object],Figure: In the absence of censorship, high levels of social unrest are possible (see peaks in red line), but between uprisings, the social system is able to come back to significant levels of quiet (green line). Source: authors’ elaboration.

[object Object],Figure: Average number of active (red), quiet (green) and jailed (black) agents as function of levels of censorship. Higher vision means less censorship and less civil violence. The total number of agents is constant across all simulations, and over time. Source: authors’ elaboration

[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Censorship levels % time spent in quiet (no civil violence) 10 0 9 0 8 0 7 0 6 0 5 0 4 0 3 0 2 0.3 1 10.2 0 32.5

[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source: P Tubaro & AA Casilli (2010) "’An ethnographic seduction’ : how qualitative research and agent-based models can benefit each other", Bulletin de Méthodologie Sociologique , n. 106, pp. 59-74

[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source : Bruce Etling, Robert Faris, et John Palfrey, « Political Change in the Digital Age: The Fragility and Promise of Online Organizing », SAIS Review 30, no. 2 (2010): 37-49.

Table: Time without riots, in percentage, corresponding to different levels of vision Table: Parameters used in the model Parameters Values Initial cop density 4 % Initial agent density 70 % Number of cops 64 Number of agents 1120 Government legitimacy 80 % Max jail term 30 time steps Vision 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 Vision levels % time spent in quiet (no civil violence) 0 0 1 0 2 0 3 0 4 0 5 0 6 0 7 0 8 0.3 9 10.2 10 32.5

Casilli UKriots Ars Industrialis

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