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Climate, energy and the imperatives of equity and growth Centre for Science and Environment April 20, 2007
Responsibility for CO 2  Emissions and Climate Change Source; Jim Hansen
Source; Bill Rees
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Energy efficiency alone is not  the answer ,[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Cost of US Emissions Reductions:  Domestic action vs Action through Flexmex US domestic action US $125 tc Flexmex with Eastern European countries US $30-50tc Flexmex with developing countries US $14-20  tc When emissions reductions obtained through: Cost of reduction
Sharing a tight budget ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
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Source: ALOK RAWAT 2004, UNEP WORKSHOP ON FUEL EFFICIENCY IMPROVEMENT AND FUEL EFFICIENCY IMPROVEMENT AND AUTOMOTIVE CO AUTOMOTIVE CO2 REDUCTION POLICIES REDUCTION POLICIES,  OCTOBER 13, 2004, China
1 US citizen = ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Who should bear the burden? ,[object Object],[object Object]
Common but differentiated responsibility Source:  UNFCCC 1997,  Implementation of the Berlin Mandate, Additional Proposals from Parties. Addendum.   21 79 Relative share of induced temperature increase due to carbon dioxide emissions in 2020 18 82 Relative share of induced temperature increase due to carbon dioxide emissions in 2010 12 88 Relative share of induced temperature increase due to carbon dioxide emissions in 1990 21 79 Relative share of carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere in 1990 25 75 Relative share of annual carbon dioxide emissions in 1990 Non-Annex 1 nations (%) Annex 1 nations (%) Relative Shares
Atmosphere is a global common ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Who bears the future costs? ,[object Object]
Climate Change - Effect on developing countries ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Possible Effects on India ,[object Object],[object Object]
Vulnerability: Emerging evidence pool in India ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],Most environmental problems lie in the development paradigm created by the North and which it is spreading to the South . North  has to show leadership by changing its ways so that all of us can learn. But global environmental negotiations don't reflect this. The negotiations do not even address the problem of the current development paradigm.  Building its scientific capacity:  The science based agenda of negotiations such as those on climate change put the developing countries, with limited scientific capacities at a disadvantage. Such an agenda, decided by the science-rich North, is also likely to ignore the environmental concerns of the poor.  Building its negotiating capacity so that it participates in the initial rule building
[object Object]
Outlook of CO 2  emission increase from 2000 ,[object Object],[object Object],What is everyone saying? (Source) DOE (2005) Other Non-AnnexⅠ Brazi l India China AnnexⅠ( Excluding US) US ( Mt-CO2 ) Developing Countries (Non-AnnexⅠ) Developed Countries (AnnexⅠ)
Perspective of world energy demands ,[object Object],[object Object]
Transportation is the Fastest Growing CO 2  Emissions Source
Making  connection between local and global emissions  for effective action Vehicle Climate Change Emission Sources Methane Nitrous Oxide CO 2 CO2 HFC A/C compressor Engine Transmission Black Carbon? Ozone
Secondary Transformations Can Be Subtle But Very Significant! Urban Air Pollution & Global Warming Are Linked ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
CO2 Is Not The Whole Story Recent evidence indicates Reducing 1 kg of BC is equal To reducing 2.5 tons of CO2
While Europe (& Japan) Lead on CO2, The EU’s Very Weak Diesel Limits Hurt Globally
Tougher Standards in The EU & More Rapid Adoption By Other Countries (i.e., China, India) Could Greatly Improve Trends
Comparison of fleet average GHG emission standards standardized by  gCO 2 /km for new light-duty vehicles   Source: Feng An, Sauer
Share of CO 2  emissions from transport of different regions as a percent to the total global transport CO 2  emissions* * Reference case only ** The following graphs are the comparison of US, EU, Japan, China, India, Brazil and Russia only.  Source: Computed from the World Energy Outlook 2006
Share of transport CO 2  emissions as a percent to the total CO 2  emissions from oil* in each regions (in %)   * Reference case only ** The following graphs are the comparison of US, EU, Japan, China, India, Brazil and Russia only.  Source: Computed from the World Energy Outlook 2006
Economic Growth Can Coexist with Clean Air and Low Energy Consumption. Can we de-link heat trapping gases as well?
Can India even begin to see this trend? Delhi:  Trend in ambient SO 2  and CO de-linked from economic growth. PM10 stabilised. NOx increasing with growth spurt Source: CSE
Pollution Per-Capita GDP “ The Kuznets Curve” Business As Usual Alternative Path Of Progress The message: Leapfrog Avoid the polluting pathways of others. Adopt an alternative path that is precautionary and preventive

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Climate Change (By Anumita)

  • 1. Climate, energy and the imperatives of equity and growth Centre for Science and Environment April 20, 2007
  • 2. Responsibility for CO 2 Emissions and Climate Change Source; Jim Hansen
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  • 7. Cost of US Emissions Reductions: Domestic action vs Action through Flexmex US domestic action US $125 tc Flexmex with Eastern European countries US $30-50tc Flexmex with developing countries US $14-20 tc When emissions reductions obtained through: Cost of reduction
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  • 10. Source: ALOK RAWAT 2004, UNEP WORKSHOP ON FUEL EFFICIENCY IMPROVEMENT AND FUEL EFFICIENCY IMPROVEMENT AND AUTOMOTIVE CO AUTOMOTIVE CO2 REDUCTION POLICIES REDUCTION POLICIES, OCTOBER 13, 2004, China
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  • 13. Common but differentiated responsibility Source: UNFCCC 1997, Implementation of the Berlin Mandate, Additional Proposals from Parties. Addendum. 21 79 Relative share of induced temperature increase due to carbon dioxide emissions in 2020 18 82 Relative share of induced temperature increase due to carbon dioxide emissions in 2010 12 88 Relative share of induced temperature increase due to carbon dioxide emissions in 1990 21 79 Relative share of carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere in 1990 25 75 Relative share of annual carbon dioxide emissions in 1990 Non-Annex 1 nations (%) Annex 1 nations (%) Relative Shares
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  • 26. Transportation is the Fastest Growing CO 2 Emissions Source
  • 27. Making connection between local and global emissions for effective action Vehicle Climate Change Emission Sources Methane Nitrous Oxide CO 2 CO2 HFC A/C compressor Engine Transmission Black Carbon? Ozone
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  • 29. CO2 Is Not The Whole Story Recent evidence indicates Reducing 1 kg of BC is equal To reducing 2.5 tons of CO2
  • 30. While Europe (& Japan) Lead on CO2, The EU’s Very Weak Diesel Limits Hurt Globally
  • 31. Tougher Standards in The EU & More Rapid Adoption By Other Countries (i.e., China, India) Could Greatly Improve Trends
  • 32. Comparison of fleet average GHG emission standards standardized by gCO 2 /km for new light-duty vehicles Source: Feng An, Sauer
  • 33. Share of CO 2 emissions from transport of different regions as a percent to the total global transport CO 2 emissions* * Reference case only ** The following graphs are the comparison of US, EU, Japan, China, India, Brazil and Russia only. Source: Computed from the World Energy Outlook 2006
  • 34. Share of transport CO 2 emissions as a percent to the total CO 2 emissions from oil* in each regions (in %) * Reference case only ** The following graphs are the comparison of US, EU, Japan, China, India, Brazil and Russia only. Source: Computed from the World Energy Outlook 2006
  • 35. Economic Growth Can Coexist with Clean Air and Low Energy Consumption. Can we de-link heat trapping gases as well?
  • 36. Can India even begin to see this trend? Delhi: Trend in ambient SO 2 and CO de-linked from economic growth. PM10 stabilised. NOx increasing with growth spurt Source: CSE
  • 37. Pollution Per-Capita GDP “ The Kuznets Curve” Business As Usual Alternative Path Of Progress The message: Leapfrog Avoid the polluting pathways of others. Adopt an alternative path that is precautionary and preventive