![[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],by Bryan Gotham Hermon, N.Y., Dairy Farmer http://128.122.253.144/T-Shirts/nanmv/wildwest.JPG](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/s-889powerpointembedded-090804061557-phpapp02/85/s889-power-point-embedded-1-320.jpg)
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- 2. Today's Wild, Wild West Chaos in the Dairy Industry No law and order. Farmers squirting Milk in each other’s eyes.
- 7. MPC Import Spikes have uncanny relationship to Class III Price Trends and Volatility
- 8. Today we don’t have a Supply & Demand Challenge We have an Import Export Challenge
- 9. “ Asymmetric pricing" Needs Law and Order Wanted Symmetrical Pricing from Farm to Retail
- 10. Our milk/retail market should correlate like the oil/gas market
- 12. 16.93 16.96 17.08 17.70 18.45 Total operating costs 0.34 0.34 0.35 0.35 0.35 Interest on operating capital 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Other operating costs 0.82 0.83 0.84 0.85 0.86 Repairs 0.67 0.66 0.64 0.67 0.70 Fuel, lube, and electricity 0.67 0.67 0.68 0.69 0.70 Custom services 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33 Marketing 0.62 0.63 0.64 0.65 0.67 Bedding and litter 1.07 1.08 1.11 1.12 1.13 Veterinary and medicine 12.41 12.42 12.49 13.04 13.71 Total, feed costs 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.16 Grazed feed 6.09 6.11 6.12 6.31 6.61 Homegrown harvested feed 6.17 6.16 6.22 6.58 6.94 Purchased feed Feed-- May April March Feb Jan Operating costs: Pennsylvania, monthly dairy costs of production per cwt of milk sold, 2009 ERS
- 13. ERS Source: Based on USDA's 2005 Agricultural Resource Management Survey of milk producers and updated using current USDA milk production per cow and production input indexes. 27.15 27.27 27.61 28.21 29.02 Total costs listed 10.22 10.31 10.53 10.51 10.57 Total, allocated overhead 0.71 0.73 0.74 0.73 0.75 General farm overhead 0.35 0.35 0.36 0.36 0.37 Taxes and insurance 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 Opportunity cost of land (rental rate) 3.84 3.88 3.94 3.86 3.83 Capital recovery of machinery and equipment 4.22 4.26 4.37 4.42 4.47 Opportunity cost of unpaid labor 1.03 1.04 1.07 1.08 1.09 Hired labor May Apr Mar Feb Jan Allocated overhead:
- 20. Dairy Da’J’a Vu 1982 Changed Farm policy started the Wealth Transfer From Rural America
Notas do Editor
- Hello my name is Bryan Gotham. I operate a 700 cow dairy along with my family in the upstate New York. Earlier this year I began to realize that the solutions to the challenges in dealing with the coming low prices were off my farm and not on it. I then started a quest in search for solutions to the challenges and this quest has resulted in this power point. To tell you a little about my self I am a graduate from Cornell University in Animal Science but I feel my higher qualifications come from my life experiences. I consider myself a professional survivor and aggressive problem solver and I have developed these skills as a result from a farm accident I was in at the age of 21 years old. I was entangled in a discbine mower and I farm and live today with my left arm and leg amputated. I have adapted to my challenges and do most things normal bodied people do. This is where my true skills at looking at this dairy crisis and finding solutions come from.
- This is how I see the Dairy Industry today. We are confused on who we are actually competing against. We have so much chaos dairy economist can’t even come close to predict milk prices.
- I have had to overcome so many of my own excuses as a Double amputee Dairy Farmer that I actually get annoyed and challenged when I hear excuses. I hate hearing all the excuses of why the industry can’t pay the Dairy farmer enough to pay their bills. S.889 crushes these excuses. Its my kind of bill.
- I calculated that the Cow protein equivalent of just these imports equal a extra 200000 cows and that’s not calculating Casein's.
- MPC can increase cheese yields close to 40%. That is some real over production. Globalization will not be reversed so we need an “ Out of the Box Solution”
- Commercial disappearances have exceeded farm milk production every year since 1996. In 2000 the all milk price was $12.32 when farmers produced 1.57 billion pounds less milk than the commercial disappearances indicate. Just three years later in 2003 the all milk price was $12.52 and the commercial disappearances exceeded production by 4.3 billion pounds. The media harps on supply and demand problems for milk but farms are systematically being replaced by concentrated imports
- The yellow line represents the retail price index of dairy products. The green line is the producer price index for raw milk. I like to call it Apex pricing.. Like an Apex predator is on the top of the food chain. I see Apex pricing as a form of predatory marketing that our Government should be protecting the Farmer from instead of giving us handouts. Today's market has twice as many unprofitable months as profitable because a stable price is demanded on the consumer. The supply doesn’t balance quickly so dairy farmers cant completely recoup our loses.
- 1. Volatility and manipulation is reduced because the Cost of production price is based on multiple market trends that affect our costs and not one thinly traded market like the CME. A stable price is demanded on the consumer level and this stable price discovery for the farmer complements this
- 1.Small business needs to rebuild this country again and it starts with our farms 2. since they get a 3 million lbs exemption and do not pay any penalty if there is an oversupply at the time. It provides a stable price for lenders to count on and gives the young farmer the ability to stimulate rural America’s economy.
- Just as I was forced to adapt my life to my amputations American Dairy farmers must adapt to globalization by working together Some producers still do not want to accept responsibility to produce what the market demands. To keep the Status Qou we will fail to adapt. With today's global market place we must adapt to a new set of rules for the Big picture of the industry and our own personal survival. We need to become smarter supply managers to compete
- After the great depression income was redistributed by paying farmers more money. Wealth was more balanced from 1942 to 1982. Early 1980’s farm policy changed and wealth was transferred from rural America to Corporate America with cheep food policy. It may be time to reverse this wealth back to rural America to rebuild this country again through small business in rural America. Another reason Farmers need more money it is healthier for the economy.