Presentation for the Interop 2010 Cloud Computing track, looking at the competition within the cloud ecosystem and the "bigger picture" of cloud computing in the context of ubiquitous use of computer technology

1. Clouds and roofracks
The cloud computing market is evolving

2. http://beachpackagingdesign.typepad.com/photos/uncategorized/2007/11/04/fluff.jpg

3. “Agile”
Pay-as-you- methods SOA
Virtualization
go licensing and self- architectures
service

4. Managed IT
BPO
hosting outsourcing
“Agile”
Pay-as-you- methods SOA
Virtualization
go licensing and self- architectures
service

5. Managed IT
BPO
hosting outsourcing
This “cloud” thing
“Agile”
Pay-as-you- methods SOA
Virtualization
go licensing and self- architectures
service

6. Let’s get some things straight.

7. Three kinds of clouds
My mom’s definition
The technical definition
The business model definition

8. My mom’s definition
Cloud

9. My mom’s definition
Cloud = Web

10. My mom’s definition
Cloud = Web = Internet

11. My mom’s definition
Cloud = Web = Internet = Useless

12. http://img.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2008/04_01/tornadoDM3030a_800x533.jpg

13. The technical definition

14. http://www.flickr.com/photos/mynameisharsha/4092086880/

15. http://www.flickr.com/photos/h4ck/2413562108/

16. http://www.flickr.com/photos/stawarz/3538910787/

17. http://www.flickr.com/photos/swimparallel/3391592144/

18. http://www.flickr.com/photos/genewolf/147722350

19. http://www.flickr.com/photos/pinkmoose/

20. http://www.flickr.com/photos/avlxyz/389030408/

21. “Cloudy” tech.

22. That’s the technical definition
Virtualization
Automation
Self-service
Elasticitly
Usage tracking & billing
Service-oriented article

23. The business model definition

24. Clouds are a third-party utility

26. http://www.flickr.com/photos/paulcross/4333070249/

27. The cloud business model
Multitenant
Pay-as-you-go
Third-party
No upfront investment
Not entitled to an opinion on architecture

28. (I think this is inevitable.)

29. IT server
costs

30. Idle
capacity,
lack of
automation,
etc.
IT server
costs

31. Idle
capacity,
lack of
automation,
etc.
IT server
costs
Private
cloud
costs

32. Idle
capacity,
lack of
automation,
etc.
IT server
costs
Ping, power,
pipe,
Private efficiencies
cloud
costs

33. Idle
capacity,
lack of
automation,
etc.
IT server
costs
Ping, power,
pipe,
Private efficiencies
cloud
costs Public
cloud
costs

34. The cloud trifecta

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Cloud Encounters, Peter van Eijk, digitalinfrastructures.nl

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Cloud Encounters, Peter van Eijk, digitalinfrastructures.nl
!

38. This isn’t just timesharing all over again

39. This isn’t just timesharing all over again
SOA

40. This isn’t just timesharing all over again
Insulates components
SOA from functionality
through consistent APIs

41. This isn’t just timesharing all over again
Insulates components Amazon S3 turns
SOA from functionality storage into a
through consistent APIs service

42. This isn’t just timesharing all over again
Insulates components Amazon S3 turns
SOA from functionality storage into a
through consistent APIs service
Virtualization

43. This isn’t just timesharing all over again
Insulates components Amazon S3 turns
SOA from functionality storage into a
through consistent APIs service
Reduces minimum order
Virtualization quantity; turns physical
things into logical ones

44. This isn’t just timesharing all over again
Insulates components Amazon S3 turns
SOA from functionality storage into a
through consistent APIs service
Reduces minimum order
Buy a slice for
Virtualization quantity; turns physical
things into logical ones just an hour

45. This isn’t just timesharing all over again
Insulates components Amazon S3 turns
SOA from functionality storage into a
through consistent APIs service
Reduces minimum order
Buy a slice for
Virtualization quantity; turns physical
things into logical ones just an hour
Standardization

46. This isn’t just timesharing all over again
Insulates components Amazon S3 turns
SOA from functionality storage into a
through consistent APIs service
Reduces minimum order
Buy a slice for
Virtualization quantity; turns physical
things into logical ones just an hour
Means users are OK with
Standardization a menu of predefined
configurations

47. This isn’t just timesharing all over again
Insulates components Amazon S3 turns
SOA from functionality storage into a
through consistent APIs service
Reduces minimum order
Buy a slice for
Virtualization quantity; turns physical
things into logical ones just an hour
Means users are OK with
Standardization a menu of predefined LAMP, Rails, etc.
configurations

48. This isn’t just timesharing all over again
Insulates components Amazon S3 turns
SOA from functionality storage into a
through consistent APIs service
Reduces minimum order
Buy a slice for
Virtualization quantity; turns physical
things into logical ones just an hour
Means users are OK with
Standardization a menu of predefined LAMP, Rails, etc.
configurations
Automation

49. This isn’t just timesharing all over again
Insulates components Amazon S3 turns
SOA from functionality storage into a
through consistent APIs service
Reduces minimum order
Buy a slice for
Virtualization quantity; turns physical
things into logical ones just an hour
Means users are OK with
Standardization a menu of predefined LAMP, Rails, etc.
configurations
Increases the human-to-
Automation machine ratio & drives
marginal cost towards 0

50. This isn’t just timesharing all over again
Insulates components Amazon S3 turns
SOA from functionality storage into a
through consistent APIs service
Reduces minimum order
Buy a slice for
Virtualization quantity; turns physical
things into logical ones just an hour
Means users are OK with
Standardization a menu of predefined LAMP, Rails, etc.
configurations
Increases the human-to-
Automation 10x enterprise
machine ratio & drives
marginal cost towards 0 efficiency ratios

52. Inconsistent adoption plans
0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

53. Inconsistent adoption plans
38% 47%
ITI “Unsure about adopting “Won’t consider the cloud in
cloud services” next 12 months”
0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

54. Inconsistent adoption plans
38% 47%
ITI “Unsure about adopting “Won’t consider the cloud in
cloud services” next 12 months”
F5 Networks 82%
“In trial, implementation, or use of public clouds”
0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

55. Inconsistent adoption plans
38% 47%
ITI “Unsure about adopting “Won’t consider the cloud in
cloud services” next 12 months”
F5 Networks 82%
“In trial, implementation, or use of public clouds”
“Implementing
cloud services”
60% 8%
CIO.com 29% “Actively researching (cloud on
“No interest in the cloud”
radar)”
0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

56. Plenty of choice in the
“business” definition of
clouds
Bare metal
Virtualized
Hybrid
IaaS
PaaS
Composed services

57. A variety of choices
(***Slides from Dell webinar)

59. Private Public

60. Private Public
Bare Managed
metal hosting

61. Private Public
IaaS IaaS
Bare Managed
metal hosting

62. Private Public
PaaS PaaS
IaaS IaaS
Bare Managed
metal hosting

63. Private Public
Intranet SaaS
PaaS PaaS
IaaS IaaS
Bare Managed
metal hosting

64. Private Public
Composed
service
Intranet SaaS
PaaS PaaS
IaaS IaaS
Bare Managed
metal hosting

65. Lots of market confusion

66. http://www.flickr.com/photos/jumphigh/1565967960/

67. 60
45
30
15
0
Stopped to taste Actually bought some
6 jams 24 jams
http://sivers.org/jam

68. 60
45
30
15
0
Stopped to taste Actually bought some
6 jams 24 jams
http://sivers.org/jam

69. 60
45
30
15
0
Stopped to taste Actually bought some
6 jams 24 jams
http://sivers.org/jam

70. 60
45
30
15
0
Stopped to taste Actually bought some
6 jams 24 jams
http://sivers.org/jam

71. 60
45
30
15
0
Stopped to taste Actually bought some
6 jams 24 jams
http://sivers.org/jam

72. General population Cancer patients
13%
35%
65%
87%
Choose their own treatment
Have others choose
http://sivers.org/jam

73. Experimentation is easy, too.

74. Expense reports can no
longer enforce IT
policy.
Wiley GAAP 2010: Interpretation and Application of Generally Accepted Accounting
Principles (By Barry J. Epstein, Ralph Nach, Steven M. Bragg)

75. Airfare
DNS
Cloud
Public
transit
Important
research
Hotel

76. http://www.flickr.com/photos/joconnell/

77. Bare
metal

78. Bare Virtualization
metal

79. Bare Virtualization Public/private
metal hybrid models

80. Bare Virtualization Public/private
IaaS
metal hybrid models

81. <script>
Hello, world!
</script>
Bare Virtualization Public/private
IaaS PaaS
metal hybrid models

82. <script>
Hello, world!
</script>
Mashup,
Bare Virtualization Public/private
IaaS PaaS RESTful
metal hybrid models
services

83. <script>
Hello, world!
</script>
Mashup,
Bare Virtualization Public/private
IaaS PaaS RESTful
metal hybrid models
services
Maximum efficiency is about a spectrum
of IT strategies atop adaptive
infrastructure.

85. Always on
premise
Private
Compliance-
enforced
Need to track and
audit
Legislative
Data near local
computation

86. Always on Can be done
premise anywhere
Private
Compliance- Testing
enforced
Training
Need to track and
Prototyping
audit
Batch processing
Legislative
Seasonal load
Data near local
computation

87. Always on Can be done Always in
premise anywhere cloud
Private
Partner access
Compliance- Testing
enforced Proximity to cloud
Training services (storage,
Need to track and
Prototyping CDN, etc.)
audit
Batch processing Massively grid/
Legislative
Seasonal load parallel (genomic,
Data near local modelling)
computation

88. Always on Can be done Always in
premise anywhere cloud
Load/pricing engine
Private
Partner access
Compliance- Testing
enforced Proximity to cloud
Training services (storage,
Need to track and
Prototyping CDN, etc.)
audit
Batch processing Massively grid/
Legislative
Seasonal load parallel (genomic,
Data near local modelling)
computation

89. Always on Can be done Always in
premise anywhere cloud
Load/pricing engine
Private
Partner access
Compliance- Testing
enforced Proximity to cloud
Training services (storage,
Policy engine
Need to track and
Prototyping CDN, etc.)
audit
Batch processing Massively grid/
Legislative
Seasonal load parallel (genomic,
Data near local modelling)
computation

90. Virtual machine
(infrastructure cloud)
Always on Can be done Always in
premise anywhere cloud
Load/pricing engine
Private
Partner access
Compliance- Testing
enforced Proximity to cloud
Training services (storage,
Policy engine
Need to track and
Prototyping CDN, etc.)
audit
Batch processing Massively grid/
Legislative
Seasonal load parallel (genomic,
Data near local modelling)
computation

91. Compute task
(service cloud)
Always on Can be done Always in
premise anywhere cloud
Load/pricing engine
Private
Partner access
Compliance- Testing
enforced Proximity to cloud
Training services (storage,
Policy engine
Need to track and
Prototyping CDN, etc.)
audit
Batch processing Massively grid/
Legislative
Seasonal load parallel (genomic,
Data near local modelling)
computation

92. An ecosystem isn’t a nice place
Natural selection at work

93. http://www.thule-car-roof-boxes.co.uk/pictures/roof-box-with-roof-rack.jpg

97. Some predictions

98. http://www.flickr.com/photos/sparkys/3434382326/

99. So who’s going to win?

100. Pure infrastructure:
Who’s got best economies of scale?

102. Recoding:
Who’s got developer mindshare?

103. Pure Services:
Who’s got network effects?
feed.API (facebook) > feed.api (friendster)

104. PaaS:
Who’s got brand and users?

105. PaaS:
Who’s got brand and users?

106. Does a PaaS need a flavor?
Ning wants to be
a social network
Webex wants to
collaborate
Salesforce wants
to be a CRM
Quickbase wants
to be SMB

107. The big picture
A layered society

108. http://www.bigpicturesmallworld.com/funstuff/bigtime.shtml

114. Span of power
Access
Technology
Money
Nobility Media
Theocracy Land
holdings
Monarchy Religion &
Genetics culture

115. http://www.nytimes.com/images/blogs/tvdecoder/posts/1107/tivo-box.jpg

118. http://www.flickr.com/photos/viewfrom52/2263683446/

119. http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2009/07/31/business/20080801-metrics-graphic.html

120. Private layers
(friends, notes)
Opt-in layers
(ads, paid
content)
Shared layers
(maps, guides)
The real world LAYER ZERO

121. Complexity of machines
Future
Tech 1
Internet
Micro-
processor
Internal
combustion
Steam engine
engine
Ramp Pulley

122. http://www.atclabs.com/Photos/mite.jpg

123. http://img149.imageshack.us/img149/3575/lawdomeicecore6sy.jpg

124. http://www.uml.edu/wuml/podcast/media/nanotechnology-kd-001.jpg

125. http://thetruthorthefight.files.wordpress.com/2009/06/hubble-eagle-nebula-wide-field-04086y.jpg

126. http://www.nar.ucar.edu/2008/ESSL/sp1/images/sp1_01_cgd_1.jpg

127. http://whiteafrican.com/
wp-content/uploads/
2008/05/
united_for_africa-499x3
83.png

128. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Global_spread_of_H5N1_map_%28August_13%29.PNG

129. http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/pacificnw/2003/1221/cover_graphic.html

130. Data generated by humanity
Web of
sensors
Web of
humans
Web of
documents
Printing
press
Scribes
Song Poem

131. See the big picture.

132. http://www.gosfordhobbies.com.au/shop/images/P/lge-630.jpg

133. http://www.optics.arizona.edu/Nofziger/UNVR195a/Day1/EMspectrum1.jpg

134. http://akamaipix.crutchfield.com/ca/reviews/20030722/speaker_freq.jpg

135. http://www.lib.utexas.edu/maps/middle_east_and_asia/kashmir_scale_1997.jpg

136. 100
75
50
25
0
2008 2009
http://developer.amazonwebservices.com/connect/thread.jspa?messageID=150461
http://www.google.com/insights/search/#q=%22Cloud%20computing%22&cmpt=q

137. 100
75
50
Taxonomies
& layers
25
0
2008 2009
What is
the cloud?
http://developer.amazonwebservices.com/connect/thread.jspa?messageID=150461
http://www.google.com/insights/search/#q=%22Cloud%20computing%22&cmpt=q

138. 100
75
50
ROI, TCO,
Taxonomies
business
& layers
cases
25
0
2008 2009
What is Why
the cloud? should I
use it?
http://developer.amazonwebservices.com/connect/thread.jspa?messageID=150461
http://www.google.com/insights/search/#q=%22Cloud%20computing%22&cmpt=q

139. 100
75
50
ROI, TCO, Designs &
Taxonomies
business best
& layers
cases practices
25
0
2008 2009 2010
What is Why How do I
the cloud? should I use it?
use it?
http://developer.amazonwebservices.com/connect/thread.jspa?messageID=150461
http://www.google.com/insights/search/#q=%22Cloud%20computing%22&cmpt=q

140. 100
75
50
ROI, TCO, Designs &
Taxonomies Business
business best
& layers strategy
cases practices
25
0
2008 2009 2010 2011
What is Why How do I What new
the cloud? should I use it? things are
use it? possible?
http://developer.amazonwebservices.com/connect/thread.jspa?messageID=150461
http://www.google.com/insights/search/#q=%22Cloud%20computing%22&cmpt=q

141. 100
75
50
ROI, TCO, Designs &
Taxonomies Business Policy &
business best
& layers strategy standards
cases practices
25
0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
What is Why How do I What new What must
the cloud? should I use it? things are I still run
use it? possible? in-house?
http://developer.amazonwebservices.com/connect/thread.jspa?messageID=150461
http://www.google.com/insights/search/#q=%22Cloud%20computing%22&cmpt=q

142. Thanks!
@acroll
alistair@bitcurrent.com
www.human20.com
www.rentedmetal.com