Peter Verweij

http://siat.cgi-systems.nl/SiatGUI 1

Sustainability Impact Assessment Tool (SIAT)
an engineering perspective

Peter Verweij

Alterra, Wageningen-UR

www.sensor-ip.org
28/05/2010 http://siat.cgi-systems.nl/SiatGUI/ 4

SENSOR project
 Develop cross sectoral ex-ante Impact Assessment Tools
to support decision making on policies related
multifunctional land use in EU
 Consortium with 39 Research Institutions
 15 EU Countries
 China, Brasil, Argentina and Uruguay
 >100 researchers
 Project duration: Dec 2004 – May 2009
 Regional scale with European coverage
 Constraint: use existing pan-European data
 Main product: SIAT for discussion support


EU – Impact Assessment
 Ex-ante SIA is a procedure accompanying policy development at
European Commission. It is to analyse sustainability impacts and
side effects of an intended policy option

 Identify the problem
 Define the objectives
 Develop main policy options
 Analyse their impacts
 Compare the options SIAT focus
 Outline policy monitoring and evaluation


Impact assessment
 Ex-ante analysis of impacts of potential policies
 Involves determining economic, environmental and
social impacts of policy options
Policy Outlook

Policy Concerns a Impact Carried out for a Possible
objective Assessment (number of) future

Is defined
Can be reached by Compares by a
several

Policy option Indicators Baseline
drives (scoring varies per drives
(defined by policy
spatial entity)
scenario
instruments)


Policy
 Potential policies are grouped in policy cases
around a number of central themes that are
important in multi-functional land use
 Bio-energy
Promotion of production and consumption
 Bio-diversity
Conservation of nature areas and in relation to agriculture,
forestry, tourism, etc.
 Common Agricultural Policy financial reform
Continuation vs promotion of knowledge economy
 Forest strategy


Outlook
 Extrapolating scenarios for exogenous
parameters (e.g. climate change, or population growth)
 Expert judgement to tweak possible trends

Baseline A

Baseline B

Baseline C

Past Present Future


Drivers to indicators (1/3)

Drivers Spatial explicit indicators
(e.g. policy, Convert (quantitative and/or
technological innovations, qualitative)
Climate change, population growth)

Conversion in SIAT system by:
 Look up indicator values in database
 Modeling
 (meta) model
 Knowledge rule
 Chain of models
 Mixture of the above


Convert

Land use
• Summaries of the most
changes
important societal,
[meta model] environmental en economical
aspects of a region
• contain region specific
Indicators
Drivers Impact
sustainability limits per
indicator
indicator (standards, thresholds,
targets,…)
[knowledge rule]

Static
maps Land use
function
[database]
s
[model]


meta-model sources

Multi-sectoral land use models Sectoral land use models
National

NEMISIS
Sectoral models
(CAPRI
EFISCEN
Nuts 2/3

Etc.)

CLUE
1x1 km2


SIAT requirements
 Interactive web based tool to estimate the possible
consequences of different policy assumptions on land
use on sustainability within different images of the
future.
 Identify areas that are sensitive to particular policies
 Identify regional differences and analyse causes
 look at potential ‘trade-offs’
 Examine the concept of sustainability tolerance limits
 undertake all analysis dynamically
 Be able to compare different scenarios
 Flexible in terms of:
 New policies / baselines / target times
 Regionalisations (extent and resolution)
 Indicators


System architecture
SIAT user interface

Messaging Messaging Messaging
Resources
Map services
(e.g. factsheets)
Simulation services

OpenMI Persistence

OpenMI
Model
OpenMI
Model
OpenMI Spatial
Model database


Startup screen


Background: factsheet example


Define your simulation (1/3)


Determine impacts at EU level
Radar chart: look at trade offs


Analyse impacts Europe
single member state


Analyse impacts: example
Land use functions of several cluster regions


Analyse impacts: example
Indicators of several NutsX regions


Limit sensitivity


Drill down Land Use Function


Compare simulations


Summary
 Discussion support
 Result analysis (e.g. find trade-offs, regional differences)
 Describe assumptions (factsheets)
 Explore causal links (drill down and factsheets)
 Flexible component based framework
 Policies (policy case, baseline, policy instruments, indicators,
regionalisations, target times, factsheets, etc.)
 Visualisations
 Data / models
 Integration of different model types (present and future models)
 Examine concept of sustainability limits using LUF approach


End of slideshow


Baseline: business as usual


Policy case: CAP reform


Peter Verweij

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