Em abril de 2013 presidi a reunião do International Council for Science, que congrega as Academias de Ciências dos diferentes países. Nesta condição, fiz a conferência de abertura do evento, escolhendo como tema as dez perguntas mais polêmicas, e que necessitam ser adequadamente respondidas, para entender os rumos futuros da energia renovável.

1. Global Overview of Energy with
Emphasis on Sustainable Sources:
Present Situation and Future
Scenarios
ICSU’s Global-Regional Integration Workshop on
Sustainable Energy
Mexico City, April 8th, 2013
Décio Luiz Gazzoni
1

2. 0
4
8
12
16
20
1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
Gtoe
Source: EIA: "International Energy Outlook 2010”
22

3. 0
20
40
60
80
100
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Percent
Renewable Conventional
33

4. Source: http://www.bp.com/sectiongenericarticle800.do?categoryId=9037183&contentId=7068609
20
30
40
50
60
500
700
900
1,100
1,300
1,500
1,700
1,900
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
2012
Consumption(bb)andR/P(years)
Provedreserves(billionbarrels)
Proved reserves
Annual consumption
Years to go (R/P)
44

5. 0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1860
1870
1880
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
US$/barrel
Source: http://www.pdf-txt.com/xls/crude-oil-price.html
55

6. 0
5,000
10,000
15,000
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
MtofCO2
Coal
Oil
Nat Gas
Source: IEA Key world energy statistics
Other: 120 Mt (2010)
66

7. 77

8. 88

9. The proliferation of supportive government
policies
Rising costs of conventional energy
Dramatic reductions in renewable energy costs
Economies of scale in manufacturing
Claims for a cleaner environment
99

10.  Security of energy supply
 Autonomy, resilience
 Jobs
 Industrial development
 Financial profit
 Portfolio risk mitigation
 Price risks of fossil fuels
 Rural energy access
 Climate change
 Environmental sustainability
 Nuclear accidents and wastes.
1010

11. Thinking inside the box... but mainly outside the box!
What?
1111

12. 1212

13. 18% of renewables
8% traditional; 10% modern
IEA (1993) = 10% RE in 2030
50% of new electricity from
RE in 2011
Sustained Growth (Shell) =
50% RE in 2050
IEA (2011) =
35% RE in
2050
1313

14. 0
20
40
60
80
100
2020 2030 2040 2050
Percent
Greenpeace (2012)
GEA "Efficiency" (2012)
IEA ETP "2DS" (2012)
IEA WEO New Policies
(2012)
Exxon Mobil (2012)
1414

15. 0
20
40
60
80
100
2020 2030 2040 2050
Percent
Greenpeace (2012)
GEA "Efficiency" (2012)
IEA ETP "2DS" (2012)
IEA WEO New Policies
(2012)
Exxon Mobil (2012)
RE will grow at higher rates
More intense close to 2050
Conservative bet: > 35%
1515

16. 1616

17. Should consider:
 Fuel and technology subsidies
 Environmental costs
 Fossil fuel price risk
1717

18. Innovation +
Externalities +
Rationalization =
Decreasing RE prices =
RE costs less to the society
1818

19. Countries with public policies
supporting RE
2005 = 55
2012 = 120
1919

20. 2020

21. Scenarios surveyed by IPCC
CO2 Concentration
1 – > 600 ppm
3 – 400 - 600 ppm
1 – < 400 ppm
2121

22. Renewables share on the
scenarios
50% - for 450 ppm
77% - for lower concentrations
2222

23. Higher shares of RE will be
compulsory for reducing
energy related GHG
Emission !
2323

24. 2424

25. Probably not soon, but breakthrough low
cost and high density technologies will be
necessary after 2050
2525

26. Widely different visions
More local grids
Integration needed
26
26

27. 2727

28. 2011 – US$ 290 billion
RE receives more
new power investment
2828

29. From now to 2035 – US$6.4 trillion
After 2035 – US$ 500 billion /yr
New financing sources
and models for the future
2929

30. Biofuels, biomass, solar
Wind offshore, hydrogen
3030

31. At the moment oil
companies start
investing
at the same rate of
others investors, than
the RE share will
accelerate its growing
3131

32. Sustainability
Green value chains
Corporation green image
Society trend
3232

33. Innovation, scale
and
public policy are the
tripod for the future
larger share of RE at
low cost
3333

34. 5 – 16 US cents / kWh
Best projects = < 5 cents / kWh
3434

35.  New materials
 Lower weight
 Concrete towers
 Permanent magnet
 Direct drives
 Aerodynamics
 Substitutes for rare earths
 Information technology
 Smarter maintenance
 Cheaper small scale turbines
3535

36. Present: 11 – 22 US cents / kWh
Trend 2035: 6 US cents / kWh
Supply chains
New turbines
Floating foundations
New system design
3636

37. Home: 22 - 44 US cents / kWh
Utility: 20 - 37 US cents / kWh
Best projects: 9 - 13 US cents / kWh
Future: < 10 US cents / kWh
3737

38.  Cell efficiency
 Thin films
 Dye, polymer and organic PV
 Earth abundant materials
 Cheaper foundation
 Cheaper integration
3838

39. Present: 19 – 29 US cents / kWh
Future: 6 – 10 US cents / kWh
Higher temperature
Larger storage capacity
Supercritical
Desalination
Air receivers
Gas turbines
HVDC transmission lines
3939

40. Present: 6 – 11 US cents / kWh
Trend to decline
Enhanced Geothermal
Low temperature
CHP
Drilling
4040

41. 8 -17 US cents / kWh
 Fuel supplies
 Technical conversion and
pathways
 Heating technologies
 Bio-refineries
4141

42.  Biomass gasification
 Sugar to biodiesel
 Cellulosic fuels
 Synthetic biology
 New feedstocks, like microalgae
4242

43.  RE came to stay
 It is a matter of choice
 It is a true green energy
 Public acceptance
 Innovation, scale and policies
will make the difference
43
43

44. “We can be almost certain that the
future will not be a linear growth
line from today.
We always underestimate the
future, which then produces
surprises.
I’m sure that some people is
underestimating the growth of
renewables as well.”
44
44

45. MANY THANKS
A Global Overview of Energy with
Emphasis on Sustainable Sources:
Present Situation and Future Scenarios.
Décio Luiz Gazzoni
México – April 8, 2013
45