1. Human Population Dynamics
• Current global population
approximately 6.6 billion
• Should grow to 9.2 billion
by 2050
• Much of this growth in
India and China Muslim District in Mumbai, India

2. Position #1...
• There are too many
people in the less
developed countries of
the world
• They are degrading soil,
air, water quality
• They are depleting Near Lagos, Nigeria
aspects of Earth’s natural
capital

3. Position #2
• Resource
consumption per
person in the
developed countries
is the most serious
problem
• Examples: energy,
food

4. Position #3
• There is no problem
• Life expectancy on Earth is
greater than ever
• Human ingenuity will
overcome...
• Food, energy, resource
problems

5. Position #4 “The family is
the natural and
fundamental unit
of society. It
follows that any
• Is population regulation a form choice and
decision with
of genocide? regard to the size
of the family
• Does population regulation... must irrevocably
rest with the
• intrude on privacy family and
cannot be made
• intrude on personal by anyone else.”
--The UN
freedom Universal
Declaration of
Human Rights

6. Who leaves the greatest
footprint?
MDC Category LDC
Per Capita
$10K GNP $1K
% Global
20% 80%
• A closer look 85%
Population
% Global
Wealth 15%
% Resource
88% Use 12%
% Global
75% Pollution 25%

7. Some population background...
• for much of human history
population grew slowly
• during the past 200 years,
however,
• exponential growth
characterized by a J-
shaped curve

8. Three reasons...
• Humans live in diverse
habitats
• Emergence of
Vaccinations
agriculture
• Medicine, sanitation,
and energy resource
• allow birthrate to
surpass death rate
Rice terraces in China

9. Present population growth rate
• In 2006 overall growth rate 1.23%
• 81 million new people
• Developed countries 0.1% (1.2
million)
• Less developed 1.5% (79.5 million)

10. Will the human population reach a
‘cultural carrying capacity?’
• In other words...
• Will human
population move
from the current J-
shaped curve to an
S-shaped curve?

11. Replacement Fertility Rate vs. Total
Fertility Rate...
• Replacement fertility rate
• # of children a couple needs to replace
themselves
• Total fertility rate
• # of children a woman has in her lifetime

12. Total Fertility Rate in 2006...
• 2.7 children per
woman globally
• developed
countries: 1.6
children per
woman
• less developed:
2.9 per woman
(6.5 in 1950)

13. What about the US and Baby Boomers?
• Right now 300 million-plus
• By 2050: 420 million
• Total fertility rate in US: less
than 2.1
• Baby Boomers 1946-64
• Total fertility rate: 3.7!

14. Why is the US population continuing to
grow?
• Huge population base
• We’ll look at age
structure diagrams later
• Large immigrant
population
• Both legal and illegal
segments

15. Factors affecting birthrate...
• Children in the
workforce
• Cost of raising
and educating
children
• Private/public
pension plans
• Urbanization Shanghai, China

16. Additional factors...
• Education/employment
opportunities for
women
• Infant mortality rate Students at Beijing University
• Age at marriage

17. Final considerations...
The Blue Mosque
• Religious beliefs
• Availability of birth control
• Availability of legal abortions

18. What role does immigration play...
• Counties that
encourage immigration
• US, Canada,
Australia, Israel, and
New Zealand
• The US grants
citizenship to
700,000 annually
• In the US,
immigrants tend to
have larger families

19. Types of Immigration...
• Legal and Illegal
• Environmental and
Political Refugees
Somali family shops at the
Mogadishu Store in Lewiston, ME
• What will be the
impact of Climate
Change?
Seychelles Islands
• i.e Sea level rise

20. Benefits and Costs of Immigrants...
• Tradition in US • Displace US workers
• Labor • Illegal aliens
• Military • Strain on healthcare
• Social Security • Strain on education
• New ideas • Security issues
• Other benefits? • Others?

21. What do Age Structure Diagrams tell us?
• Pre-reproductive, Reproductive, Post-reproductive
• Challenges for each model

22. Aging and Declining
Populations
• Global aging The population of the world will be
older.
• labor shortages According to the 2006 Revision of
World Population Prospects, by 2045
• social security the number of older persons in the
world (those aged 60 years or over)
• healthcare will likely surpass, for the first time in
history, the number of children (i.e.,
persons under age 15). This
• military power vs. crossover is the consequence of the
diplomacy long term reductions in fertility and
mortality that are leading to the
steady aging of the world population.
UN Population Division

23. A look at India...
• World’s largest
democracy: 1.1
billion
• India should
surpass China by
2035
• Self sufficient in
grain; yet 40%
undernourished

24. More on India...
• Rapid economic
growth
New Delhi marketplace
• Critical resource and
environmental
problems
• By 2050 could
become the world’s
economic leader
Desertification in southern India

25. Challenges to India’s population
planning...
• At the the federal
level
• Poor planning/
disagreement
over best
policy
• Best success at
the local level
• Kerala

26. Other challenges for India...
• Low status of women
• Extreme poverty
• Democracy: minimal
coercion
• Cultural preference for
males
• 90% of population aware
of birth control; 40% use it
Child from Calcutta

27. The State of Kerala-A promising model
for India
• Positive political leadership
• High poverty, but life
expectancy 70 yrs.
• Social justice and economic
redistribution
• Literacy 100% (nationally Trichur Pooram, an
annual festival in
47%) Kerala

28. What about China...
• Largest population: 1.3 billion
• State controlled family policy
since 1970
• Coercive policy: draconian
penalties
• one child or else
• Modified in 2002; 2 children Promoting the one-child policy

29. The results have been compelling...
• Plan has reduced
population by 250
million
• 86% birth control
compliance Beijing, China
• literacy 91%; life
expectancy 72
• Cut total fertility rate
from 5.7 to 1.6

30. Opportunities and challenges...
• By 2020 could be the
global economic leader
• 600 million middle
class; high consumption Prosperous Middle Class
• By 2050, 60 & over
population will be
larger than the US
population
Elderly practicing tai chi

31. Final words on China...
• Cultural preference for
males has led to a 118 Ad from Mail-order
bride agency
male to 100 female ratio
• Formidable resource
depletion and
environmental degradation
problems
Air pollution at the Olympic Stadium