20130802 BH Report: Is the World a Better Place today?

1. BH Report: Is the world a better place today? 2013/8/2

2. Context
•If you ask anybody today, "is world perfect?" the answer is most likely "no" – people may disagree on what a perfect world should look like, but there are no questions that we have a lot of issues on our plate
•At the same time, I felt that it must be at least "better" than yesterday... but is that really the case? Specifically – I wanted to answer following questions: "Objectively speaking, is the world a better place today than 10 years ago? how about 50 years ago, or 2000 years ago? If so, will it continue?"
•To approach this problem, I chose the famous phrase from US Declaration of Independence "Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness" for the framework... i.e., I looked at following 4 topics
–(1) Life: Wars and conflicts – are people less likely to die from wars and conflicts?
–(2) Life: Food supply – is #/% of undernourished declining? do we have more food supply per person?
–(3) Liberty – are more people under the rule of democratic government1 ?
–(4) "Pursuit of" Happiness – did people become happier? what is driving happiness? [light touch]
•NOTE: Any one of the topics covered in this is complicated enough to require deeper analysis (in fact, various organizations and scholars have put together many good reports on each individual topic) - my intent in this report is to try looking at these holistically to answer to overall question
•NOTE: I did not cover some potentially highly relevant topics (e.g., Education, Access to healthcare, Social mobility) in this report for the belief that these are very important and yet secondary to above selected topics (... I could very well be wrong on this one... give me your thoughts if you think differently)
1. I'm making a gross generalization that that "democratic" government is "better" in this report... this is a much debated point for which I don't really have a strong point of view (for example, I don't have a good answer to the question "isn't benevolent dictatorship better than democracy?") I will have to revisit the question in the future...

3. Executive summary
(2) Food supply
(3) Liberty
(4) Happiness
Overall implications
(1) Wars and conflicts
•We are living in one of the most peaceful times in history
•It has especially improved in the last 20 years (despite terrorisms, etc.) but need to continue our watch to keep away from large scale wars/conflicts given expected rise in population fighting over potentially scarce resources
•Global food supply situation has improved significantly over the last 50 years during which population doubled, but food production tripled
•However, this has not fully solved the problem of undernourishment (has remained at ~14% of world population for the last 15 years
•Looking forward, number of issues need to be resolved to reduce the number and the percentage of undernourished people in the future (e.g., income inequality, resources)
•Long term trend of more countries becoming "democratic" – roughly 65% of world population lives under democratic government today vs. 40% in 1970
•Likely the trend continues
•In the US, despite economic and social improvement, the percentage of self-perceived 'happy' Americans has been virtually flat for the last 40 years
•Cross-country comparison shows that income is not the sole driver of happiness
•Thank our predecessors who have contributed to making this world a better place – there has been clear improvements along many key dimensions over the last decades
•There are still tons of rooms for improvements (~14% undernourished population, ~200K death from wars and conflicts p.a., ~5% of population living under autocratic governments) and anticipation for challenges to come (population growth vs. resources)
•Recommendation: Make the best of life given to us, be happy and help push the world to a become even better place

4. Agenda
•(1) Wars and conflicts
•(2) Food supply
•(3) Liberty
•(4) Happiness
•Appendix: Historical (1960-2011) analysis of select indices
•Appendix: World Population

5. Summary: (1) Wars and conflicts
•NOTE: I fully acknowledge that analyzing death counts could be very misleading... there is an old quote "The death of one man is a tragedy, the death of millions is a statistic1" ... it really shouldn't be that way
•Despite how it feels (incessant news on terrorisms, civil wars and conflicts abroad), we are actually living in one of the most peaceful times in history
•In terms of last 50 years...
–Death toll was on the rise till 90's, but it has declined significantly in the last 20 years
–Today, roughly ~200 thousand people die from wars and conflicts each year, which represents ~0.4% of death each year and ~0.003% of world population
•Looking at longer time span (~2000 years)...
–The percentage of death due to wars and conflicts (~0.003% of world population per year today) is at one of the lowest levels
•Two biggest spikes of death from wars and conflicts you see in history are the World Wars and Mongolian Conquests in 13th century (both at roughly ~0.1% of world population per year)
–But, it also seems that the history of wars and conflicts have been cyclical with ~400 years cycle
•It is tempting to quickly dismiss the possibility of future large-scale war (that is comparable to World Wars) by saying that we have made progress as mankind and that we are much more globalized... but I think it is still valuable to identify what could potentially lead to such event, and try to solve for it2
1. The quote is often attributed to Joseph Stalin, but we apparently don't know who actually said this first 2. I don't have a full set of 'problems to be solved' but "how to allocate resources (e.g., food/water/oils) to growing population" and "how to reduce, or at least maintain the economic disparity "immediately come to my mind
(1) Wars and conflicts

6. How many people died from wars and conflicts each year?
0
500
6,500
Average # of deaths from wars and conflicts (thousand people per year)
2010-2013
214
2000’s
455
1960’s
318
1950’s
279
1940’s
6,204
578
1990’s
720
1980’s
566
1970’s
95%+ from
World War II
Increase driven by internal conflicts (civil
wars, insurgency, etc.)
• Smaller death toll each, but larger
number of conflicts... net result of
increase in death per year
Continued conflicts + some
new large scale wars E.g.,
• 1st/2nd Congo War
• Rwanda Civil War
Some of the long term (20-
30 years) civil wars ended,
and not many large scale
new wars started
• Iraq War was the
biggest, but even that
accounts for just 8% of
the overall death tolls
Death toll was on the rise till 90's, but it has declined significantly in the last 20 years
despite the images of terrorisms and wars on terror
Note: Based on 145 wars and conflicts that had death tolls in 1940AD or later; used mid-point for death toll if there was an estimated range for death toll; assumed that death toll was evenly spread for the
duration of the war and conflict; 145 wars and conflicts all had minimum death toll of at least 1,000 people; include death from genocides
Source: Web search; US Census; UNDESA
(1) Wars and conflicts

7. What percentage of world population does that represent?
0.00%
0.15%
0.20%
0.10%
0.30%
0.05%
0.25%
0.258%
1940’s
0.010%
Average percentage of death from wars and conflicts (% of world population per year)
2010-2013
0.003%
2000’s
0.009%
1990’s
0.013%
1980’s
0.012%
1950’s
0.009%
1960’s
0.011%
1970’s
Fairly small percentage of people die from wars and conflicts today (0.003%), and it
also represents small portion of total death (0.4%) vs. other causes
% of total
death n/a n/a 0.7% 1.0% 1.2% 1.4% 1.1% 0.4%
Note: Based on 145 wars and conflicts that had death tolls in 1940AD or later; used mid-point for death toll if there was an estimated range for death toll; assumed that death toll was evenly spread for the
duration of the war and conflict; 145 wars and conflicts all had minimum death toll of at least 1,000 people; include death from genocides
Source: Web search; US Census; UNDESA
(1) Wars and conflicts

8. How does this compare to historical trends for the last
2000 years ?
0.00%
0.05%
0.10%
0.15%
1700-
1800
1800-
1900
1950-
2000
1900-
1950
1600-
1700
1500-
1600
1400-
1500
1300-
1400
1200-
1300
1100-
1200
300-
400
Average percentage of death from wars and conflicts (% of world population per year)
1000-
1100
900-
1000
100-
200
200-
300
400-
500
500-
600
600-
700
700-
800
800-
900
0-
100
2000-
2013
NOTE: Based on partial data
• Historical data (both death tolls and
population) less reliable than last 100 years
– For example, hard to believe that
there were no wars/conflicts in 300-
400 and 600-700
• Intended to give a 'flavor' of how the
percentage has changed over years
World Wars
Manchu
Conquest, Thirty
Years' War, etc.
Mongol Conquests
• One of the deadliest conflicts in history-spanned
~1200-1320AD1, conquering much
of Asia + Eastern Europe, killing 30-60
million people (world population was ~400
million in 1200)
An Lushan
Rebellion, etc.
We are living in one of the most peaceful time periods, AND
History has been cyclical so far with ~400 year cycle2... let's hope it won't be going forward
1. Genghis Khan died in 1227, but the conquests continued. 2. I should note that the spikes you see in 100's, 200's, 700's and 1600's are all driven primarily by large internal conflicts in China – which has
really been the only country with large enough population such that internal conflicts can make the graph spike... for example, American Civil War in 1861-1865 was the deadliest war in the US with ~1
million death, but it was much smaller compared to contemporary Taiping Rebellion in China with estimated ~20-30 million death Note: Based on 257 wars and conflicts that had death tolls in 0AD or later;
used mid-point for death toll if there was an estimated range for death toll; assumed that death toll was evenly spread for the duration of the war and conflict; 257 wars and conflicts all had minimum
death toll of at least 1,000 people; include death from genocides Source: Web search; US Census; UNDESA
(1) Wars and conflicts
Yellow Turban
Rebellion and
Three Kingdoms
Wars
Hunnic Invasion,
Gothic War

9. Agenda
•(1) Wars and conflicts
•(2) Food supply
•(3) Liberty
•(4) Happiness
•Appendix: Historical (1960-2011) analysis of select indices
•Appendix: World Population

10. Summary: (2) Food supply
•Global food supply situation improved over the last 50 years
–Population doubled but food production tripled (= more food supply per person)
–Technology-led productivity improvement (e.g., agrochemicals for crop yield) drove food supply growth
•Today, on average basis, there is enough food supply to feed the whole world... however, there are sizable number of people who are 'undernourished' (~14%) because of the variations of food supply across countries AND within each country
•Percentage of undernourished people was declining until mid 90's, but the improvement has been limited in the last 15 years
–24% of the world was 'undernourished' back in 1970
–This came down to 14% by 1995, but it has remained at the level for the last 15 years
•Looking forward, number of issues need to be resolved to reduce the number and the percentage of undernourished people in the future
–Food production growth needs to outpace global population growth (~expected to be around 0.8% CAGR through 2050)
–Complex set of issues that need to be resolved (e.g., income inequality, gap in renewable water resources, lack of infrastructure and ineffective government policies/strategies in countries with significant undernourished population)
(2) Food supply

11. In the last 50 years, population doubled, but food
production tripled (= more food supply per person)
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
1980
1979
1978
1977
1976
1975
1974
1973
1972
1971
1970
1969
1968
1967
1966
1965
1964
1963
1962
1961
10.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
1999
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
Global food production1 (billion tonnes)
6.7
8.2
World population (billion)
Global food production
World population
1961
3.0 billion people,
2.7 billion tonnes of food produced,
2,043 kcal/person/day of food supply1
2009
6.7 billion people (2.2x)
8.2 billion tonnes of food (3.1x)
2,640 kcal/person/day of food supply1 (1.3x)
1. Note that not all of food production becomes food supply. In 2009, roughly 1 billion tonne (13%) was used as feed, 0.1 billion tonne (2%) was used as seed, 2.4 billion tonnes (30%) was used for food
manufacturing and 0.7 billion tonne (9%) was used for other purposes – leaving 3.8 billion tonnes (47%) as food supply (=2,640 kcal per day per person)
Source: FAO; US Census Bureau; UNDESA
Technology-led productivity improvement (e.g., agrochemicals for
crop yield) has been the primary driver
(2) Food supply

12. Back-up: Cereals (esp. wheat & rice) are the largest sources
of the global food supply; meat & fish relatively small
5%
20%
15%
Chicken Beef Other meat
100%
46%
Pork
13%
Total Fish
8%
3%
80
100
40
60
20
0
2009
All other
Cereals
Roots, vegetables, fruits, beans
Sugar & sweetners
Meat and fish
Oil, oilcrops, animal fats
14%
15%
10%
49%
% world food supply in terms of kcal
Source: FAO
24%
Beans/Peas
16%
Total
100%
Vegetables
36%
Starchy roots
(e.g. potatoes)
Fruits
23%
Other cereals
6%
Maize
11%
Rice
42%
Total Wheat
41%
100%
(2) Food supply

13. Enough food supply to feed the world on average... issue with variations across countries and within each country
3,000
4,000
0
1,000
2,000
Average
2,640 kcal/person/day
Average annual food supply for the country (kcal per person per day) in 2009
India
USA
China
Each box represents one of 176 countries mapped
Population of the country in 2009 (= total 8.7 billion)
Worst 15: Eritrea, Burundi, Zambia, Kenya, Haiti, Sudan, Palestinian Territory, Tajikistan, Botswana, Chad, Yemen, North Korea, Namibia, Congo, Ethiopia
Top 15: Austria, Kuwait, Turkey, Portugal, Belgium, Italy, Egypt, USA, Israel, Ireland, Hungary, Morocco, Greece, Germany, Canada
Source: FAO; US Census Bureau; UNDESA
Enough energy for ~70kg (~155lbs) individual to sustain body weight even with heavy level of exercise
(2) Food supply

14. Percentage of 'undernourished people' was declining until
mid 90's... but, limited improvement in the last 15 years
920
875
855
825
850 845
880
1970 1980
0
1975 2005 2010
800
600
400
200
1,000
1985 1990 1995 2000
Million people
Number of 'undernourished' people
in the world1
Percentage of 'undernourished' people
in the world1
0
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990
10
5
15
20
25
1995 2000 2005 2010
% of world population
14% 14% 14% 14%
16%
19%
24%
1. By the way, this is fairly academic statistic – it is defined by FAO in following phrasing "undernourishment exists when caloric intake is below the minimum dietary energy requirement (MDER). The MDER is the
amount of energy needed for light activity and a minimum acceptable weight for attained height, and it varies by country and from year to year depending on the gender and age structure of the population"
Source: FAO; US Census Bureau; UNDESA
(2) Food supply

15. Number of issues need to be resolved to reduce the number/ percentage of 'undernourished people' in the future...
Challenges
Global population is expected to grow to ~9.2 billion people (37% growth, 0.8% CAGR) by 2050
•Nearly all of the growth will take place in developing countries This implies that food supply needs to grow at FASTER rate than 0.8% CAGR
•Because most of incremental population growth will come from developing countries – and will face economic challenges unless relative price of food declines This has been feasible in the last decades due to improved yield (thanks to technology) + higher land utilization, but we just aren't sure if we can keep up the growth
•For example, global cereals production grew at 2.0% CAGR for the last 10 years (1.6% from yield improvement, 0.4% from land increase)
•So far, we haven't seen the yield improvement to slow down, but can we sustain this? are we near the limit (e.g., water supply issue), or do we have enough room for continued growth?
Key issues that need to resolved
Income inequality among countries AND within each country Roadblocks for continued food production increase (esp. cereals, but also livestock)
•Renewable water resources (agriculture represents ~70% of water usage)
•Constraints for land expansion (chemical, physical, endemic diseases, lack of infrastructure) Insufficient local/domestic food production in countries with significant undernourished population
•Heavy reliance on imports
•Lack of infrastructure and ineffective government policies/strategies
I won't go into further detail in this report about what needs to be done (too difficult to solve given limited time), but I would like to revisit this problem in the future...
Source: FAO; WorldBank; US Census; UNDESA; McKinsey
1
2
3
(2) Food supply

16. Agenda
•(1) Wars and conflicts
•(2) Food supply
•(3) Liberty
•(4) Happiness
•Appendix: Historical (1960-2011) analysis of select indices
•Appendix: World Population

17. Summary: (3) Liberty
•NOTE: I'm making a gross generalization that that "democratic" government is "better" in this report... this is a much debated point for which I don't really have a strong point of view (for example, I don't have a good answer to the question "isn't benevolent dictatorship better than democracy?")
–For now, I will go on with this definition, but I will have to revisit the question in the future
•In general, the world became much more democratic over the course of last 40 years...
–Roughly ~65% of the world population lives under "democratic government" today
•Clear improvement from ~40% in 1970 – many of the previously autocratic countries shifted to democracy since 1970 while there are only small number of examples countries who went into an opposite direction (or it only lasted for short period of time E.g., failed coup)
•China, representing ~20% of world population, is not a democratic country - but it seems socially stable, at least so far1
•And this is likely to continue...
–Long term trend has been for any countries to shift toward democracy for the last 200 years (though some countries did go back and forth over 10-50 year time cycle) – again, China is an exception
–I do not have any reasons to believe that the trend would reverse in any foreseeable future
(3) Liberty
1. Questionable whether China can continue to be that way for the next 50-100 years, and also unclear if the right answer is to shift to democracy or not... I didn't dig deeper into this one, as it would require a lot more in-depth research & thinking

18. Roughly ~65% of the world population lives under democratic
government today (vs. ~40% in 1970) excluding China
27 26 25 24 21 20
13
23
19
13
5
7
9
8
5
7
5
8
8
5
14
15
42 39
46 47
51
5
5
8
39
40
100
60
20
80
0
3
2
1970 1980 1990 2000
1
Autocratic
Somewhat democratic
Neutral
China
Somewhat autocratic
% of world population, based on the level of democracy/autocracy of the country ** China called out because it is big & an outlier
2010
Democratic
1
1960
3
Source: Polity IV dataset
Aside from China (in which the quality of life is arguably not low when compared
to other developing nations), there is limited amount of people under autocracy
China would fall under
"somewhat autocratic"
bucket if classified
~85% of
world
population
excl. China
(3) Liberty
Includes countries like
North Korea, Saudi Arabia,
Uzbekistan, Eritrea

19. Examples of countries who made the switch since 1970
From autocratic to democratic
Greece (1974 – 1975)
Portugal (1974 – 1976)
Spain (1976 – 1978)
Mexico (1976 – 20001)
Peru (1979 – 1980)
Bolivia (1982)
Argentina (1983)
Brazil (1985)
Poland (1985)
Taiwan (1987 – 1992)
Hungary (1987 – 1990)
East Germany (1989)
Panama (1989)
Albania (1990)
Romania (1989 – 1990)
Paraguay (1989 – 1991)
Mongolia (1990 – 1992)
Bulgaria (1990)
Czechoslovakia (1990)
Lesotho (1993)
Indonesia (1999)
Senegal (2000)
From democratic to autocratic
Gambia (1994)
Fiji (2006)
Venezuela (2009)
1. Series of events that slowly moved Mexico toward democratic government
Source: Polity IV dataset
More examples of shift to democracy observed... high concentration around 1989-1991 related to the fall of Berlin Wall/ collapse of USSR [untested]?
(3) Liberty

20. Long term trend has been to go toward democracy for the last
200 years – though countries like France went back and forth
1820
1815
1810
1800
1805
1825
1830
1835
1840
1845
1850
1855
1860
1865
1870
1875
1880
1885
1890
1895
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
China France Japan Russia/USSR United Kingdom United States Prussia/Germany
More democratic
WWII
(1939-
1945)
Russia:
Russian
Revolution
(1917)
Japan: Meiji
Restoration
(1868)
France: End of Napoleon's reign
(1814), July Revolution (1830),
February Revolution (1848),
Coup of 1851
Russia:
USSR
dissolved
(1991)
China:
Cultural Revolution
(1966), Mao's
death (1976)
Source: Polity IV dataset
(Examples with select countries for the last 200 years)
China:
Xinhai
Revolution
(1911)
(3) Liberty

21. Back-up: Approach and dataset used for the assessment of the level of democracy/autocracy
Several government/ non-government organizations have published different indices and assessments of "the state of freedom" in the world Among the choices, I selected Polity IV Project which was publicly available, seemed to apply a sound approach, and allowed for long term analytics
•You can access the original dataset at < http://www.systemicpeace.org/polity/polity4.htm > Description of Polity IV methodology For each country in each year, Polity IV assigns 21 point scale (-10 to 10) for the spectrum of "democratic" and "autocratic"... the scoring is based on following 5 criteria
•Competitiveness of Executive Recruitment
•Openness of Executive Recruitment
•Constraint on Chief Executive
•Competitiveness of Political Participations
•Regulation of participation
(3) Liberty

22. Agenda
•(1) Wars and conflicts
•(2) Food supply
•(3) Liberty
•(4) Happiness
•Appendix: Historical (1960-2011) analysis of select indices
•Appendix: World Population

23. Summary: (4) Happiness
•Happiness is clearly a subjective matter, and is difficult to study – but there has been number of surveys with time series (e.g., Gallup World Poll, US General Social Survey) and number of researches and reports- notably United Nations published its first "World Happiness Report" in 2012
•Despite economic and social improvement, percentage of self-perceived 'happy' Americans has been virtually flat for the past 40 years
–There is somewhat of a correlation between income level and percentage of happy people (i.e., you have slightly higher chance of being happy if you are richer) – but there is no aggregate improvement for the overall population even if the economy improves as a whole
–Majority of people (>80%) with income level above $50K is at least somewhat happy (i.e., "it's okay"), but only ~30-40% find themselves "very happy"; this percentage only goes up to ~50% even when income level goes up to $150K+
•Cross-country comparison of self-reported happiness does not seems to show any obvious patterns – it is difficult to establish causality (most of published reports don't agree on key drivers) – but it is most certainly NOT solely driven by income
•In short: above certain point (e.g., minimum level of income, peace, sufficient food supply, etc), it is up to an individual to be happy or unhappy – let's make the best of it!
(4) Happiness

24. [US] Percentage of self-perceived 'happy' Americans have
been virtually flat for the past 40 years
33
29
32 32 32 33 34 33 34 31
33 33
35 36
36
33 34
29
36
32
33 35 36 34 36 35
37 38
89 88 88 86 86 87 92 91 92 91 90 89 90 89 90
88 88 88 88 90 90 89
92
88 89 88 88 87
1974 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992
60
1972 1976 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
20
0
100
2010
80
2012
40
%
83
30
Very happy
or Pretty happy
Very happy
Question: Taken all together, how would you say things are these days - would you say
that you are very happy, pretty happy, or not too happy?
Source: US General Social Survey (1972-2012, cumulative n=52,346)
Apparently, any improvements for the past 40 years had no effect on the
total percentage of "happy" people
(4) Happiness

25. [US] It seems that majority of people (>80%) with household
income above $50K are at least somewhat happy (i.e., "okay")
0
50 100
100
80
60
40
20
150 200
10
30
50
70
90
0
% who responded "very happy" OR "pretty happy"
Inflation adjusted household income ($K per year)
Source: US General Social Survey (1972-2012, cumulative n=52,346)
Question: Taken all together, how would you say things are these days -
would you say that you are very happy, pretty happy, or not too happy?
Each bubble represents a set of
samples surveyed –size of the
bubble represent the sample size
Seems to correlate positively
with income level
Virtually flat above certain
threshold (~$50K)
(4) Happiness

26. [US] Percentage of "very happy" go up with income level
(NOTE: even the highest group is only at ~50% implying that no matter how rich you get,
only about half of them see perceive themselves as "very happy")
60
50
0
80
100
10
30
0
40
20
50 100 150 200
70
90
% who responded "very happy"
Inflation adjusted household income ($K per year)
Question: Taken all together, how would you say things are these days -
would you say that you are very happy, pretty happy, or not too happy?
Source: US General Social Survey (1972-2012, cumulative n=52,346)
Each bubble represents a set of
samples surveyed –size of the
bubble represent the sample size
Positive correlation
(4) Happiness

27. Cross-country comparison of self-reported happiness does not
seems to show any obvious patterns (certainly not income)
-100 -50 0 50 100
Brazil
Germany
France
United-States
Macedonia
Russian-Federation
Bulgaria
Cameroon
China
Ukraine
United-Kingdom
Hong-Kong
Pakistan
Vietnam
Morocco
Turkey
Czech-Republic
Italy
Serbia
Ireland
Poland
Tunisia
Portugal
Iraq
Romania
Palestine
Saudi-Arabia
Philippines
Finland
Azerbaijan
Peru
Switzerland
Iceland
Argentina
Ecuador
Spain
Japan
Singapore
Georgia
Austria
Sweden
Armenia
Kenya
India
Bosnia-and-Herzegovina
South-Korea
Canada
Australia
Mozambique
Afghanistan
Lebanon
Colombia
Malaysia
Belgium
Neither
Unhappy
Happy
Question: As far as you are concerned, do you personally feel happy, unhappy or neither happy nor un-happy about your life?
Source: WIN-Gallup International Association (December 2012, n=55,817)
"Happiest"
"Unhappiest"
(4) Happiness

28. Agenda
•(1) Wars and conflicts
•(2) Food supply
•(3) Liberty
•(4) Happiness
•Appendix: Historical (1960-2011) analysis of select indices
•Appendix: World Population

29. Average life expectancy
1993
1985
1989
1979
1991
1983
1987
1981
2006
2008
1977
1973
2004
1975
2002
40
60
1962
2011
1996
1998
20
0
50
70
30
1966
1968
1972
1974
1976
1978
1982
1986
1988
1994
1984
1992
80
1964
10
90
1961
2010
1963
2000
1965
1990
1967
1980
1969
1970
1971
1960
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
Average life expectancy (female)
Source: World Bank
Rwanda civil war
Each line represents a
country or a region
Cambodian genocide
Appendix

30. Crude death rate
3.0%
4.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
Crude death rate (death as % of population each year)
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Each line represents a
country or a region
Rwanda civil war
Cambodian genocide
Source: World Bank
Appendix

31. Infant mortality rate
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
Infant mortality rate (% of infant/child who dies in less than 5 years from birth)
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Each line represents a
country or a region
Source: World Bank
Rwanda civil war
Appendix

32. Agenda
•(1) Wars and conflicts
•(2) Food supply
•(3) Liberty
•(4) Happiness
•Appendix: Historical (1960-2011) analysis of select indices
•Appendix: World Population

33. World Population is rapidly growing
1000 1250 1500 1750 2000 2250
8,000
10,000
-1750 -1500 -1250 -1000 250
4,000
-2000
2,000
6,000
0
-750 -500 -250 0 500 750
~256
~7,123
~27
~9,235
~762
World population (Million people)
Year (AD)
Forecast
Historical
Source: Web search; US Census; UNDESA
Appendix

34. Growth trajectory of world population has been driven by
major social events - it truly accelerated after WWII
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
2015
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
1955
1950
World Population (M)
Year
+1.7%
Source: Web search; US Census; UNDESA
1800
1700
1600
1500
1400
1300
1200
1100
1000
900
700
800
500
600
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
+0.2%
+0.1%
World population (M)
Year
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
1950
1900
1850
1800
1750
World Population (M)
Year
+0.6%
~500 - 1750
(+0.1-0.2% p.a.)
~1750 - 1950
(+0.6% p.a.)
~1950 - today
(+1.7% p.a.)
~ Second Industrial
Revolution (chemicals,
electricity, oils, steels)
~First Industrial
Revolution (textiles) and
Agricultural Revolution
~End of
~Mongolian World War II
Conquests
~Black
Death
Appendix

35. Disclaimer
This document is provided for general information only and nothing contained in the material constitutes a recommendation for the purchase or sale of any security. Although the statements of fact in this report are obtained from sources that I consider reliable, I do not guarantee their accuracy and any such information may be incomplete or condensed. Views are subject to change on the basis of additional or new research, new facts or developments.